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September Wx Obs for the PacNW (2021 Edition)


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1 minute ago, Link said:

Enjoy your answe........I mean meal! OREGON'S ASSISTED SUICIDE LAW (ct.gov).  We (as in voters) asked for it BTW so we reap what we sow:😢😢

Move the political takes elsewhere ty 

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not trolling... that is some serious rain.  Shades of October 2003.   I am guessing there is typhoon remnants entrained.    I like getting lots of rain quickly... but that might be a tad too much.   Wish it could be spread out more to the south.  

If it comes too fast you will waste much of it on runoff. Not ideal.

That’s what happened here with Ida’s remnants. Dumped a ton of rain locally but it barely increased the soil moisture content because it fell so d**n hard.

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29 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

And it just keeps going... western WA will be flooded while western OR is still in drought. 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_precip_inch-2052800.png

Wow, that's some good rainfall. 00z UKMET is also showing 3"-4"+ in some areas along the I-5 corridor in WA. 

qpf_acc.us_nw-1.png

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<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Not trolling... that is some serious rain.  Shades of October 2003.   I am guessing there is typhoon remnants entrained.    I like getting lots of rain quickly... but that might be a tad too much.   Wish it could be spread out more to the south.  

gfs_mslp_pwat_npac_fh-72-108.thumb.gif.abdd0193897d19c48527f5c9bd36f34c.gif

Somewhat.... This has roots in a weak subtropical impulse which entered the jet stream just east of Japan around three days ago. Though much of the moisture is sourced latently from the southern midlatitudes. Around this time of year, monsoonal moisture around the equatorial northern hemisphere is still floating around to an extent (along with warmer air, which can hold more water), so excessive rainfall events are, relatively speaking, easier to achieve than in winter, even with weaker forcing.

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

I know... but swamp makes it sound ugly and its definitely not.  

I don’t know why but I had the same perception of Bonney Lake as well. I was in the downtown area last week for Sunflowers Day in Buckley and it was very beautiful/clean. Swamp definitely does not fit the billing. 

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4 hours ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

LOL!  It's a bit drafty out there. That said, it is turning into a remote HAM Shack.  I have a Raspberry Pi ADSB receiver set up out there, and will get an RPi SDR going out there in the next few weeks.  Once I invest in bigger radios (just have a HT now) my antennas will run off the shed. 

As for simming,  I gotta tell you my new job is seriously cutting into my flight sim time, and I am not happy about it! 😆 I finally got my Honeycomb Bravo Throttle quadrant a few weeks ago (backordered for 6-ish months) and have barely had time to try it out!  

Sounds like some good healthy hobbies going on :) 

Glad the throttle quadrant finally showed up…you may need to sacrifice sleep to feed the flight sim addiction.  I remember doing that once in a while playing after midnight.  Enjoy none the less 

52* 

 

 

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6 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

And it just keeps going... western WA will be flooded while western OR is still in drought. 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_precip_inch-2052800.png

lol that doesn’t look like a typical fall progression to me. Rivaling October 2003 and December 2019 if this verifies. 

Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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Good god 4.7” of rain in Tacoma…4” of that in 36 hours. That would be insane. Still a pretty good soaking for Oregon too will be enough to end the season. This rainstorm is kinda concerning though I’m leaving for Oregon Saturday morning in the middle of this. Even the gfs has us getting “only” 2+ inches of rain. 
 https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/?m=1

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Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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26 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Good god 4.7” of rain in Tacoma…4” of that in 36 hours. That would be insane. Still a pretty good soaking for Oregon too will be enough to end the season. This rainstorm is kinda concerning though I’m leaving for Oregon Saturday morning in the middle of this. Even the gfs has us getting “only” 2+ inches of rain. 
 https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/?m=1

Cliff mentioned something that I was thinking about too... we might end up with normal or even above normal rainfall for the June - September period after this event.    If the 00Z ECMWF verified... SEA would actually be wetter than normal for that period.   And would also be wetter than normal YTD through the end of September.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Cliff mentioned something that I was thinking about too... we might end up with normal or even above normal rainfall for the June - September period after this event.    If the 00Z ECMWF verified... SEA would actually be wetter than normal for that period.   And would also be wetter than normal YTD through the end of September.  

That is true…had a big rainstorm to start and end the dry season it appears. I’m a bit concerned about us getting 4” of rain though. Last time that happened was December 2019. Just a torrential downpour on the morning of December 20th. Some of the heaviest rain I’ve ever seen and it went on for hours. A lot of Ruston way and schuster pkwy here in Tacoma closed for several days during that one. Commencement bay was brown and muddy full of debris. This situations different since the ground is so dry a lot of it will be soaked up but hard to imagine that wouldn’t create problems still. Looks like the south sound could be ground zero for this one at the moment. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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11 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

That is true…had a big rainstorm to start and end the dry season it appears. I’m a bit concerned about us getting 4” of rain though. Last time that happened was December 2019. Just a torrential downpour on the morning of December 20th. Some of the heaviest rain I’ve ever seen and it went on for hours. A lot of Ruston way and schuster pkwy here in Tacoma closed for several days during that one. Commencement bay was brown and muddy full of debris. This situations different since the ground is so dry a lot of it will be soaked up but hard to imagine that wouldn’t create problems still. Looks like the south sound could be ground zero for this one at the moment. 

Previous runs had the rain moving into Oregon first and then it moved up into WA from the south... seems like the trend is farther north and much wetter for WA right now.    It will be very interesting to see if the 12Z run stop the northward trend or reverse it.     

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Previous runs had the rain moving into Oregon first and then it moved up into WA from the south... seems like the trend is farther north and much wetter for WA right now.    It will be very interesting to see if the 12Z run stop the northward trend or reverse it.     

We’re only about 72 hours out from the start of the event so we should know by later tomorrow. 

Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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Some of the bluest sky in a little while!

Looks like a low of 39 here. Surprised I haven't had more freezing lows considering the lows in August.

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms (9)
05/14, 06/22, 06/24, 07/27, 07/29
07/31, 08/01, 08/05, 08/13, 
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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2 minutes ago, The Blob said:

Beautiful morning for pumpkin spice coffee 

20210914_074156.jpg

Nothing like a good cup of motor oil first thing in the morning! 

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms (9)
05/14, 06/22, 06/24, 07/27, 07/29
07/31, 08/01, 08/05, 08/13, 
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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8 hours ago, Kolk1604 said:

Wasn't that the Monday that got like 5 inches? The December/Early January that followed was pretty epic

I hadn't quite lived here until years after '04 but hearing that this place was snowed in during that storm.
Not many snows are on a regional level but that one definitely was. Jan 04, 08 and 17 were the 3 biggest Januaries since turn of the century in this area. 

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms (9)
05/14, 06/22, 06/24, 07/27, 07/29
07/31, 08/01, 08/05, 08/13, 
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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FWIW... the 12Z ICON shifted north of its previous runs.    It keeps it dry from Seattle southward through Friday afternoon and then the front swings through overnight.     

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Interestingly... the 12Z ICON then hangs up the main rain band over western Oregon on Saturday and ends up wetter down there than its 00Z run.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 hours ago, Cloud said:

I don’t know why but I had the same perception of Bonney Lake as well. I was in the downtown area last week for Sunflowers Day in Buckley and it was very beautiful/clean. Swamp definitely does not fit the billing. 

I don’t think anything about the PNW fits the definition of a swamp. 

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16 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

The ICON has been all over the place.

What is clear to me is that the timing of the southward progression has been pushed back. 

The ICON is not exactly a reliable model.

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Just now, Phil said:

The ICON is not exactly a reliable model.

Definitely not... but we are 72 hours out from a major event so all the models become pertinent.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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11 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

12z GFS Rainfall totals ending 5 AM Monday

qpf_acc.us_nw.png

Looks really good. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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21 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Definitely not... but we are 72 hours out from a major event so all the models become pertinent.  

I’ve often found the ICON to be fairly good in the nearer term. 2-3 days.  It is run at a pretty good resolution. It outperformed some of the “bigger” models for snow events in SW BC last winter. 

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GFS looking good!

D513B59F-2C4C-49A4-994E-FE0689B9B3F4.png

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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I hope Fall 2003 is an analog this year. There was some of the greatest post-frontal convection in my memory banks that year as a kid and curious if some of that happens down here. In order, 2003, 1998, and 2009 were good ones for Fall t'storms where I used to live.

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms (9)
05/14, 06/22, 06/24, 07/27, 07/29
07/31, 08/01, 08/05, 08/13, 
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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12z isn't half bad. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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