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September Wx Obs for the PacNW (2021 Edition)


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Looks like this could actually end up being a fairly significant Nina. 

Not many years have peaked with an ONI below -1.0C in back to back years. 2010/11-2011/12 was the most recent example, then 98/99-99-00 and another time in the mid 70s. 
nino34Sea.gif

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Phil, how do you feel about 75-76 as an analog? 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Here comes the euro…expecting these rain totals to come back down to reality a bit.

Shifted quite a bit north for Friday compared to the 00Z run deluge.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Here comes the euro…expecting these rain totals to come back down to reality a bit.

Or just spread the wealth more evenly and not concentrate all of it one place. ;)

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms (9)
05/14, 06/22, 06/24, 07/27, 07/29
07/31, 08/01, 08/05, 08/13, 
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Shifted quite a bit north for Friday compared to the 00Z run deluge.

Figured since the other models seemed to be doing that this morning too. 

Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

This run is actually better than the last Euro for Oregon and northern CA. This run puts more rain into the Willamette Valley and extends all the way down to Sacramento metro and gives the Dixie Fire a soaking.

Yup pretty much everywhere still gets over an inch of rain…and getting rain into northern CA is a big plus. 

6E813ACD-E323-4C7E-9B5F-525432D7D91C.jpeg

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Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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Looking at the potential for thunderstorms this weekend, per 12z ECMWF. To be honest, I'm not the best at determining the parameters for thunderstorm development in this area as I'm not too well-versed on CAPE, shear, lapse rates, etc. so I'll just post the info here and let others (like @Meatyorologist) comment on what this could/could not lead to.

Highest CAPE values are both Saturday and Sunday mornings. Values range anywhere from 1021-100 J kg.

mucape.us_nw.png

mucape.us_nw.png

 

Here's bulk shear values for both Saturday and Sunday morning. 

bs0500.us_nw.png

bs0500.us_nw.png

 

And finally, lapse rates for both Saturday and Sunday mornings.

lr75.us_nw.png

lr75.us_nw.png

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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22 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

NWS NBM for total precip through the end of the weekend...

Averages of over 1.5 inches for most places down the I-5 corridor. 

qpf_acc.us_state_wa.png

I'll take that. I'll be happy with at least 1 inch but hoping to get 2"+.

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<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

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1 minute ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

I'll take that. I'll be happy with at least 1 inch but hoping to get 2"+.

Teeing it up... that's what she said.   👍

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Looking at the potential for thunderstorms this weekend, per 12z ECMWF. To be honest, I'm not the best at determining the parameters for thunderstorm development in this area as I'm not too well-versed on CAPE, shear, lapse rates, etc. so I'll just post the info here and let others (like @Meatyorologist) comment on what this could/could not lead to.

Highest CAPE values are both Saturday and Sunday mornings. Values range anywhere from 1021-100 J kg.

mucape.us_nw.png

mucape.us_nw.png

 

Here's bulk shear values for both Saturday and Sunday morning. 

bs0500.us_nw.png

bs0500.us_nw.png

 

And finally, lapse rates for both Saturday and Sunday mornings.

lr75.us_nw.png

lr75.us_nw.png

Great information...  I don't normally look at those parameters.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I have a feeling this weekend is going to overperform and be a bit of a surprise.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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43 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Clouds are increasing…hit 70 earlier now down to 67. 

Same here... temp got up to 70 but now clouds have moved in and down to 68.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

Looking at the potential for thunderstorms this weekend, per 12z ECMWF. To be honest, I'm not the best at determining the parameters for thunderstorm development in this area as I'm not too well-versed on CAPE, shear, lapse rates, etc. so I'll just post the info here and let others (like @Meatyorologist) comment on what this could/could not lead to.

Highest CAPE values are both Saturday and Sunday mornings. Values range anywhere from 1021-100 J kg.

mucape.us_nw.png

mucape.us_nw.png

 

Here's bulk shear values for both Saturday and Sunday morning. 

bs0500.us_nw.png

bs0500.us_nw.png

 

And finally, lapse rates for both Saturday and Sunday mornings.

lr75.us_nw.png

lr75.us_nw.png

Looks like a fairly typical strong early season cold core setup. Should be some pulse storms scattered about.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like this could actually end up being a fairly significant Nina. 

Not many years have peaked with an ONI below -1.0C in back to back years. 2010/11-2011/12 was the most recent example, then 98/99-99-00 and another time in the mid 70s. 
nino34Sea.gif

These multi-year niña/-PDO cycles are actually quite predictable (or at least have been in recent decades).

The structure of the equatorial IPWP oscillates with the solar cycle on a slight lag (for reasons only partially understood). Following solar min, the IPWP (and corresponding Walker/Indo uplift) tends to retract farther west, reducing the frequency and amplitude of WPAC/dateline convection & associated downwelling OKWs. So El Niño inception becomes more difficult, and the low frequency circulation modes are more La Niña-like, hence the manifestation of subtropical oceanic expressions associated with La Niña (-PDO, -PMM, etc).

7EA8F744-7075-4A20-A715-0118308D44A2.jpeg

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You can see how the previous two retraction cycles have corresponded to multi-year La Niñas (2008-12, 1998-2001).

While the extension cycles tend to feature WPAC warmth and less frequent+weakened La Niñas (1991-1995, 2002-2006, 2013-18).

The recent extension (2013-18) was sort of double peaked, similar to the solar cycle 24, which was also double-peaked.

This decadal cycle of the IPWP is why I’ve been anticipating a multiyear Niña in the early 2020s.

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2 hours ago, Omegaraptor said:

This run is actually better than the last Euro for Oregon and northern CA. This run puts more rain into the Willamette Valley and extends all the way down to Sacramento metro and gives the Dixie Fire a soaking.

DROUGHT BUSTER!

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A forum for the end of the world.

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3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like this could actually end up being a fairly significant Nina. 

Not many years have peaked with an ONI below -1.0C in back to back years. 2010/11-2011/12 was the most recent example, then 98/99-99-00 and another time in the mid 70s. 
nino34Sea.gif

Low end moderate....nothing more

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9 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Possibly so.

Nah... pattern will likely flip again and there will be some more warm days before the middle of October.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Looking at the potential for thunderstorms this weekend, per 12z ECMWF. To be honest, I'm not the best at determining the parameters for thunderstorm development in this area as I'm not too well-versed on CAPE, shear, lapse rates, etc. so I'll just post the info here and let others (like @Meatyorologist) comment on what this could/could not lead to.

Highest CAPE values are both Saturday and Sunday mornings. Values range anywhere from 1021-100 J kg.

mucape.us_nw.png

mucape.us_nw.png

 

Here's bulk shear values for both Saturday and Sunday morning. 

bs0500.us_nw.png

bs0500.us_nw.png

 

And finally, lapse rates for both Saturday and Sunday mornings.

lr75.us_nw.png

lr75.us_nw.png

What Dewey said, just looks like an average garden-variety setup.

Though with increased cloudcover and higher than normal shear, probabaly going to be some organized lines of storms which might be obscured a bit by cloudcover. Going to be tough to get them going, but shear might allow them to.

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17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Nah... pattern will likely flip again and there will be some more warm days before the middle of October.

I’d be surprised if the pattern flipped back to warmth this month. 

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8 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

What Dewey said, just looks like an average garden-variety setup.

Though with increased cloudcover and higher than normal shear, probabaly going to be some organized lines of storms which might be obscured a bit by cloudcover. Going to be tough to get them going, but shear might allow them to.

Thanks for the info. Cloud cover looks a little bit sporadic, at least on Saturday morning, so hopefully that will help drive some instability. 

I think I'm just desperate for a good thunderstorm outbreak. I'll take what I can get at this point.

cloudcover.us_nw.png

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

Looks like a fairly typical strong early season cold core setup. Should be some pulse storms scattered about.

Got one of those years back when I was attending a concert “Manhattan transfer” at the State Fair.   A couple claps of thunder and then it poured!   We were drenched!!! I loved it! 

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12z Euro showed breezy winds pretty much all weekend but winds peak overnight Friday.

Gusts shown up to 40 mph in Tacoma on Friday. This is 15 mph stronger than what the 00z Euro showed. Gusts almost up to 35 mph again on Sunday. Definitely nothing crazy but certainly notable, especially with many trees still having the majority of their leaves.

Man... A November-like storm to track in September! Nice to be back in action, however temporary it may be.

sfcgustmax_006h_mph.us_state_wa.png

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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Rain cannot come soon enough. The farm adjoining us just had their tractor catch fire and start an acre brush fire. Thank GOD they got a handle on it quick. Fire crew mopping up and heading out now. Neighbor called my wife at work frantic, she called me frantic, but things had calmed down by the time I got home. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Rain cannot come soon enough. The farm adjoining us just had their tractor catch fire and start an acre brush fire. Thank GOD they got a handle on it quick. Fire crew mopping up and heading out now. Neighbor called my wife at work frantic, she called me frantic, but things had calmed down by the time I got home. 

Glad your place is ok man. Been way too long since we've had any rain here.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Rain cannot come soon enough. The farm adjoining us just had their tractor catch fire and start an acre brush fire. Thank GOD they got a handle on it quick. Fire crew mopping up and heading out now. Neighbor called my wife at work frantic, she called me frantic, but things had calmed down by the time I got home. 

Thankfully this long dry summers about to end in spectacular fashion. 

Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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