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September Wx Obs for the PacNW (2021 Edition)


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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Started harvesting grapes today... they are so sweet the first bowl might just be for eating and not wine.   Purple are Cabarnet Sauvignon and the lighter colored ones are Chardonnay.   

20210914_145040.jpg

My absolute favorite smell over anything!  Ripe grapes!  My parents always had them and I'm not sure when it started but I'd go out there and just smell them.  Haha, maybe it's because I associated it with the end of summer and start of mroe exciting weather?!

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Nice to see it raining up north. Completely clear down this way and a fairly warm afternoon. Looks like we have hit 75 today after a morning low of 46. 

Should see a pretty big shift tonight as the tail end of the front comes through, no precip expected down here, but tomorrow night could be the coldest of the season so far. Friday looks wet.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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5 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

NWS NBM for total precip through the end of the weekend...

Averages of over 1.5 inches for most places down the I-5 corridor. 

qpf_acc.us_state_wa.png

I'll go with higher amounts and stick with the EURO. NBM is just an average between major models right? 

GFS - Sucks

NAM - Sucks 

ICON - Sucks

GEM - Sucks

UKMET - Alright

EURO - The GOAT and only getting better

 

Sure the other models can be right, but how often? The Majority of the time we just discard them. There great for eye candy, but not accuracy. 

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0” of rain here this month.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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18 hours ago, Kolk1604 said:

Wasn't that the Monday that got like 5 inches? The December/Early January that followed was pretty epic

Yes....2003.  There was an impressive late October cold snap afterward as well.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Tomorrow night looks perfect for some fairly widespread lows in the 30s.  Chilly mid level airmass peaks during the night with clear skies.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 hour ago, yellowstone said:

How are we feeling about the bet @Joshua Lake Oswego and @RentonHillTC?

I’m going to lose, but this first punch isn’t looking too impressive for Portland. The Euro is about 6 hours slower for the arrival and rain and way drier than the GFS. Based on the 18z Euro, it won’t even start raining until very late Friday night. Maybe we will get .50” - .75”. Sunday looks pretty wet now, but could easily shift north just like the main event. 
 

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Got to 85F. Still feels like summer.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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11 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

An astounding N-S gradient. Only reached 58˚F here.

Kinda been the story for a while now -- hence the joke climate maps showing Oregon as being part of the Desert Southwest.

Hoping things look better after the weekend!

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4 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

Kinda been the story for a while now -- hence the joke climate maps showing Oregon as being part of the Desert Southwest.

Hoping things look better after the weekend!

28˚F is the biggest gradient I think I remember so far. Sure hope you guys score some rain soon. You really need it.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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4 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

Kinda been the story for a while now -- hence the joke climate maps showing Oregon as being part of the Desert Southwest.

Hoping things look better after the weekend!

I'm numb to it at this point. We are going to see warmer and drier than normal conditions more often than not this coming winter again.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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Fire re-ignited just after dinner time and the fire trucks came racing back up the hill. All quiet again now. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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SEA could potentially have its wettest Sept. day on record since record keeping moved to SeaTac. Gonna wait for the 0z runs to see if any changes, but receiving 2” of rain in a 24-h period is insane for this time of year.

Highest daily record is 1.71” from 2013 followed by 1.65” from 1953 and 1978.

A Nov.-Dec. system in mid-Sept. 

A9C032BF-9C8D-4D5B-B342-296187B48A0A.jpeg

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42 minutes ago, Cloud said:

SEA could potentially have its wettest Sept. day on record since record keeping moved to SeaTac. Gonna wait for the 0z runs to see if any changes, but receiving 2” of rain in a 24-h period is insane for this time of year.

Highest daily record is 1.71” from 2013 followed by 1.65” from 1953 and 1978.

A Nov.-Dec. system in mid-Sept. 

A9C032BF-9C8D-4D5B-B342-296187B48A0A.jpeg

Please post the link for that chart. I can’t find it anymore on my old link.  Thanks

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1 hour ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Oh, NAM, you’re so silly. My house is under the PDX area red swath. If only…

qpf_acc.us_nw.png

As they always say, you don't want to be in the bullseye this far out. 

<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Fire re-ignited just after dinner time and the fire trucks came racing back up the hill. All quiet again now. 

The rain can't come soon enough. 

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<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

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GFS is already worse...

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

GFS is already worse...

Was just about to comment this-- significantly drier for OR. Let's hope EURO doesn't follow suit.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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1 hour ago, DJ Droppin said:

Wait. WHAT? Which fire? I haven't been on my laptop since 8 AM....

Brush fire on the neighbors farm. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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53 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

You can find all that data and more here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew

Thanks,.  I used to find that chart in the Seattle NWS page but they removed it.  I’m sure it’s on your link somewhere but Cloud provided the direct link so I’m back in business now.

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49 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

GFS is already worse...

Aw, it's not so bad. Looks like just the usual wagging, not a full-on rug pull (yet).

Put it this way, if I get even 1.35", that will equal my total rainfall since 5/25, or nearly 4 months.

 

Screen Shot 2021-09-14 at 9.55.03 PM.png

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24 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

Aw, it's not so bad. Looks like just the usual wagging, not a full-on rug pull (yet).

Put it this way, if I get even 1.35", that will equal my total rainfall since 5/25, or nearly 4 months.

 

Screen Shot 2021-09-14 at 9.55.03 PM.png

00z UKMET not looking bad either. Everybody should do good, especially if you live closer to the Coast and any foothills. 

qpf_acc.us_nw-2.png

<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

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2 hours ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Oh, NAM, you’re so silly. My house is under the PDX area red swath. If only…

qpf_acc.us_nw.png

I have a feeling this much rain in just a few hours with such dry soil could yield some pretty serious flash flooding potential. Pretty clear that even though this is pretty much a wettest case scenario, that this is not a typical early season storm.

Glad I’m moving to Corvallis on the 19th and not the 18th...

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