Jump to content
The Weather Forums

September Wx Obs for the PacNW (2021 Edition)


Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

The Friday forecast is nothing I have ever seen for here before from the NWS, 2 to inches of rain possible, just Friday. 

Screenshot_20210914-224712_Chrome.thumb.jpg.c0d03e40804a8240b7a38898a09da6e6.jpg

It might not have been in the forecast officially... but 2 inches of rain in one day has happened for both of us on numerous occasions.  

  • scream 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

I have a feeling this much rain in just a few hours with such dry soil could yield some pretty serious flash flooding potential. Pretty clear that even though this is pretty much a wettest case scenario, that this is not a typical early season storm.

Glad I’m moving to Corvallis on the 19th and not the 18th...

I’m literally driving all the way to Portland than over the mountains into central Oregon on the 18th. Could be interesting! 

  • Excited 1
  • scream 1

Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z ECMWF - 10 Day GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly, 10 Day Rainfall totals, 10 Day Snowfall totals

floop-ecmwf-2021091500.500h_anom_na.gif

May be an image of map, sky and text that says 'Total Accumulated QPF F240 Valid: 2021- -09-25 (©)2021European Centrefo nge Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) over model run sservice based ata products the CMWF. 1.0 Init: Wed 2021-09-15 00z ECMWF Hi-Res 0.8 0.2 0.3 pivotal 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.8 2 2.5 pivatalwedther piv#tal weäther 3.5 8'

May be an image of map and text that says 'Total Accumulated Snowfall, 10:1 Ratio (in) F240 Valid: 2021 09- 25 Centreo Medium- nge Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). This service based data products the CMWF Init: Wed 2021- 00z ECMWF Hi-Res www.pivotalweather.com votalweather.com 3 4 12 16 pivatalweather pivota weather 32 36'

What's up with that bullseye in SW SD?

What geographicaly is there that was elude that kind of resolution? (Black Hills/Badlands?)

EDIT: It's the Black Hills/Reservation

  • Snow 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

EC looking good!

EC precip totals.png

  • Like 1
  • Rain 1

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

EC ensemble so far. Better than the previous run.

C5F670E6-835D-4C61-AED0-6AD8A31B7B90.png

  • Like 2

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Very nice!

EC ensemble precip totals.png

  • Like 5
  • Rain 1

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Pretty rare Nov.-Dec. like storm for Sept and with the grounds not being saturated due to the lack of precip this summer, I would expect some flash flooding to occur. 

ivt.70.0000.gif

Last years AR featured IVT values only in the 500-700 range, this beast is gonna make us remember it, I mean (1200+kg/m)?

Are you kidding me right now?

  • Rain 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, JBolin said:

Last years AR featured IVT values only in the 500-700 range, this beast is gonna make us remember it, I mean (1200+kg/m)?

Are you kidding me right now?

I have a feeling we're going to see some incredible rain rates at times. This is the Fall transition equivalent of a "flash freeze"

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, JBolin said:

Last years AR featured IVT values only in the 500-700 range, this beast is gonna make us remember it, I mean (1200+kg/m)?

Are you kidding me right now?

Suppose the good news is that this AR event will move out rather quickly. It'll just dump and go. Our typical ARs around here can last for more than 48 hours. My guess is that some places around the south sound will receive up to 4" of rain.   

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

EC looking good!

EC precip totals.png

The problem is that the ''guaranteed'' part is minimal compared to Washington. The front late Friday into Saturday might only drop .50'' or even less in some locations. Then, it's post-frontal showers. Those should be widespread, but it's not a wall of water like the main event. Some areas will score while others will see a couple of partly sunny days with some showers mixed in.

I am so jaded by the past 30 months or so of underperforming rain events here that I can't help but be pessimistic.

  • Thanks 1
  • Weenie 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

The problem is that the ''guaranteed'' part is minimal compared to Washington. The front late Friday into Saturday might only drop .50'' or even less in some locations. Then, it's post-frontal showers. Those should be widespread, but it's not a wall of water like the main event. Some areas will score while others will see a couple of partly sunny days with some showers mixed in.

I am so jaded by the past 30 months or so of underperforming rain events here that I can't help but be pessimistic.

Since this forum is team WA we are considered the desert hinterlands now down here.

  • Weenie 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Cloud said:

In the mean time we're being fed some appetizers. Getting some light rain/drizzle this AM. Wet roads. 🌧️

It rained all night here based on the radar loop... and still thick fog and drizzle.    Looks like .40 overnight.     This upcoming storm will just be water added to a wet landscape here.    Like every rainfall event until next spring.   😀

  • Like 1
  • Excited 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

06Z ECMWF shows highs around 70 up to the Seattle area on Friday... and into the 80s from Portland southward.   That day has trended from a serious deluge to almost nothing for the Seattle area and SW WA over the past 4 ECMWF runs.

06Z ECMWF only goes out through 90 hours... here are the rain totals through 5 p.m. Saturday.   Nice to see the wealth spread out much more evenly.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_precip_inch-2009600 (1).png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Cloudy mild morning. 55

 

 

7B9606F2-FCD1-4FA4-99B2-486664437E1E.jpeg

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Kolk1604 said:

It's model riding season so what does that mean? Pivotal weather plus!

00z Euro total precip through the weekend

 

qpf_acc.us_state_wa.png

 

 

Pivotal weather plus....how long has that been around?  I am intrigued.  I've had a weathermodels.com but I am inclined to let it when it renews next month, and the subscription for weatherbell is more than I would rather pay...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Drippy here just started here a bit ago. This is the first time I’ve actually been able to *hear* rain falling in a while precip has came in drizzle form for months until now. 

  • Excited 1

Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

42 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

 

 

Pivotal weather plus....how long has that been around?  I am intrigued.  I've had a weathermodels.com but I am inclined to let it when it renews next month, and the subscription for weatherbell is more than I would rather pay...

I think just last year or two years ago. It's only $7 a month but it's like a downgraded version of weather models and weatherbell

The nice thing about it is the local view which is what I usually use it for. I'm still going to get a weatherbell subscription this year

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Washington Co donut hole shows up nicely!

gfs_apcpn24_nwus_10.png

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is tremendous. Decent rainfall amounts all the way south to about Orville, CA. 

gfs_apcpn_nwus_17.png

  • Like 2
  • Excited 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z GFS drops another trough down on us a week from today.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_30.png

  • Like 1
  • Rain 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z brings summer back by the last week of the month. 

  • Excited 1
  • Sun 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Like 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...