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September Wx Obs for the PacNW (2021 Edition)


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The 6Z gfs hung the front up across southern Vancouver island a little longer tonight.   The extreme daily rainfall record for the month of September for Shawnigan Lake is 2.48” from September 22, 1924.  We could have a shot at breaking that if things play out just right today. 

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Looking like maybe a bust for much of Western Oregon now. Hopefully we can get an inch up here. Disappointing for sure. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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9 hours ago, MossMan said:

I had a 2000 Jetta back in the day that I used when gas prices went insane in the later 2000’s and mostly parked my Tahoe except when absolutely needed. It was a great car but it had a mystery leak that I could never figure out. It became a greenhouse inside of it during the winter but even the dealer could not find the source. 

mk4...those were part of the "troubled years" for VW.  Mk3 & mk4 had a lot of problems and I stayed away.  After my wife's car got totaled about 6 years ago, we were looking for a replacement, and I came across a mk5 (2007) Jetta. Figured out they were much better than previous generations, picked it up, and it was an amazing car.  After I finished my degree in 2019 I realized that the TDI JSW's (which is what I really wanted) were back out on the road, so I snagged one up.  Much better suited for kayaking and whatever other adventures I decide to pursue.  I can even sleep in the back relatively comfortably, and I am 6'3."

 

Currently 52 degrees and .10" so far.

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Hard not to be bummed but this is just the beginning.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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33 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hard not to be bummed but this is just the beginning.

Yup. Gonna be our new normal. Always guess the lowest end of the precip estimates from like a week out.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 58F (Oct 18)
  • Coldest low: 32F (Oct 12)
  • Days with below freezing temps:1 (Most recent: Oct 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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Most of the precip for the middle of next week is gone now too. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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17 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

 

Real article, not from "Why America is a bad country and everything they do is evil" AJ+.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9999885/Giant-sequoias-wrapped-foil-protect-US-forest-fires.html

Seriously though, its Al Jazeera with a sesame seed bun and special sauce.

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Looks like this weekend will be it for down here. Back to endless dry weather after that.

  • Weenie 1

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 58F (Oct 18)
  • Coldest low: 32F (Oct 12)
  • Days with below freezing temps:1 (Most recent: Oct 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

24

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34 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

 

Hopefully they used non-stick spray on that foil.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 58F (Oct 18)
  • Coldest low: 32F (Oct 12)
  • Days with below freezing temps:1 (Most recent: Oct 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

24

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10 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

NWS NBM still shows a pretty sizable amount of precip has fallen by the end of the weekend.

Not sure how/why people are complaining about this given this is probably 3x the amount of rain some have seen fallen over the past 3 months, falling in just a little over 48 hours, but whatever. Guess we are starting the whole "this event sucks before it even starts" a bit early this year.  🤷‍♂️

qpf_acc.us_nw.png

It's over

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11 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

NWS NBM still shows a pretty sizable amount of precip has fallen by the end of the weekend.

Not sure how/why people are complaining about this given this is probably 3x the amount of rain some have seen fallen over the past 3 months, falling in just a little over 48 hours, but whatever. Guess we are starting the whole "this event sucks before it even starts" a bit early this year.  🤷‍♂️

qpf_acc.us_nw.png

Gonna be a nice refreshing weekend!🥰

Just too bad model runs earlier this week distorted some folks’ ability to enjoy it. Thoughts and prayers!

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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24 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

NWS NBM still shows a pretty sizable amount of precip has fallen by the end of the weekend.

Not sure how/why people are complaining about this given this is probably 3x the amount of rain some have seen fallen over the past 3 months, falling in just a little over 48 hours, but whatever. Guess we are starting the whole "this event sucks before it even starts" a bit early this year.  🤷‍♂️

qpf_acc.us_nw.png

The other thing is…there aren’t any overachievers in this event. It’s not like someone is getting 5 inches and some else is getting 0.5. Up and down I-5, from Roseburg to Bellingham everyone is getting between 1.5 and 2 inches with folks outside that zone getting a reasonable amount for their relative climates. Maybe this model is on the high side but that point is still valid on most. Nobody is getting skunked while others drown. 

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33 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

NWS NBM still shows a pretty sizable amount of precip has fallen by the end of the weekend.

Not sure how/why people are complaining about this given this is probably 3x the amount of rain some have seen fallen over the past 3 months, falling in just a little over 48 hours, but whatever. Guess we are starting the whole "this event sucks before it even starts" a bit early this year.  🤷‍♂️

qpf_acc.us_nw.png

Yep. 10 min in and it's already a bust

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3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looking like maybe a bust for much of Western Oregon now. Hopefully we can get an inch up here. Disappointing for sure. 

Well how much for my place? We can't go several dry Falls in a row, that is ridiculous! 🤣

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53 here and steady light rain since a bit before sunrise. 0.13” so far today and 0.27” for the month. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.71”

Cold season rainfall-2.71”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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46 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

NWS NBM still shows a pretty sizable amount of precip has fallen by the end of the weekend.

Not sure how/why people are complaining about this given this is probably 3x the amount of rain some have seen fallen over the past 3 months, falling in just a little over 48 hours, but whatever. Guess we are starting the whole "this event sucks before it even starts" a bit early this year.  🤷‍♂️

qpf_acc.us_nw.png

Lol nothing is ever good enough here 😂. Looks like the fire seasons over and many places should atleast get an inch or more on the westside. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.71”

Cold season rainfall-2.71”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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26 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

GEFS is ridgy yuck

 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-1631880000-1632355200-1632668400-40.gif

By that point we will have already had a big rainstorm though…so it’s no biggie. I’d be upset if we only managed like 0.10” then flipped into a ridgy pattern but I feel like we can appreciate some nice sunny weather after this big regional storm rolls through. More rain will follow soon enough. 

Monthly rainfall-2.71”

Cold season rainfall-2.71”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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9 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

It's not 12:21 pm PDT on Wednesday, September 22, 2021 yet

We'll just have to see what happens. One thing I've noticed is that the models hardly ever know Klamath Basin rainfall. I've seen it overperform numerous times.

Plus if another thunderstorm happens, I highly doubt a dry one happens in late September!

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17 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

By that point we will have already had a big rainstorm though…so it’s no biggie. I’d be upset if we only managed like 0.10” then flipped into a ridgy pattern but I feel like we can appreciate some nice sunny weather after this big regional storm rolls through. More rain will follow soon enough. 

True. By this time tomorrow i'll probably be like ehhhh daytime rain blows. My kid will be stuck inside and on his 6th straight episode of Blippi and the dog will be going crazy without his walk (he wont walk in the rain 99% of the time but he will still beg for them) and i'll start drinking at about 10 and by 2pm nobody is having a good time. 

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Nws Portland certainly still thinks the totals will still be significant based on today’s forecast. 

BD77DF12-720D-42D3-8AB4-BE383CB4045C.jpeg

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Monthly rainfall-2.71”

Cold season rainfall-2.71”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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This forums: god D****T!!! What a horrible summer with the dryness, drought and wild fires. Not happy.
 

Also this forums: this event is a bust even though I’m about to get 1.5-2” of rain in a 48 hours period!! Not happy. 
 

😂 🤷‍♂️ 

 

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