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September Wx Obs for the PacNW (2021 Edition)


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6 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

Jeeze my area is forecast to be spending a couple hours under heavy rains as the front gets chewed up by the cascades. Woulsnt surprise me if I wound up ~3 inches after tonight. Darrington might get to 4.

Where do see 3-4 inches of rain falling overnight other than Mt Baker?     That would be very rare for my area and would take a stationary AR event on steroids for that kind of rain in 12 hours.   This is fairly fast moving frontal passage.    I am guessing 1.50 to 2 inches for the foothills.

Here is the ECMWF rainfall over the next 12 hours (8 p.m. through 8 a.m.):

 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_12hr_inch-1977200.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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My place is up to 62F. 520 bridge up to 69F, SeaTac at 67F and Renton municipal at 70F!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.5"; March 15th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

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5 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

What site is that? 

Here’s the exact link for SEA. You can also change the stations (sid)to match your needs. For example if I want BFI, I just change SEA to BFI. And also the time increments in which it updates. 
 

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=KSEA&num=168&banner=NONE&hfmetars=1

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1 minute ago, ..... said:

Heavy stuff offshore.  Hope it pushes inland.  I put fertilizer on my lawn.

Might be too much rain too fast for fertilizer.   A drizzly day is best... or water it in yourself.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Where do see 3-4 inches of rain falling overnight other than Mt Baker?     That would be very rare for my area and would take a stationary AR event on steroids for that kind of rain in 12 hours.   This is fairly fast moving frontal passage.    I am guessing 1.50 to 2 inches for the foothills.

Here is the ECMWF rainfall over the next 12 hours (8 p.m. through 8 a.m.):

 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_12hr_inch-1977200.png

I'm already at .8". That map will be a bust for me in about 2 hours. We've had about 45 minutes of a break from rain today here since 0700. The main event isn't even here yet.

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1 minute ago, smerfylicious said:

I'm already at .8". That map will be a bust for me in about 2 hours. We've had about 45 minutes of a break from rain today here since 0700. The main event isn't even here yet.

Ahhh... I just noticed you were including what has already fallen.    

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Ahhh... I just noticed you were including what has already fallen.    

If we didn't have a rug pull I might've been looking at something similar to that. Gotta love being so close to the mountains, avg rainfall here is 80". What is it in North Bend? Gotta be similar.

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Getting fairly breezy out there and it's such a warm wind, feels quite good actually. Might have to go for an evening walk and soak up the wind to tide me over until storms later this fall.

Gotta enjoy it while it happens and not stay focused on the radar/satellite/models/etc. I have a feeling that will be an important rule to remember come December.

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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Nothing heavy or even moderate today. Rain shadow was pretty strong towards Shoreline and further north. Had a sweatshirt on today, but now I'm going to throw on a T-shirt! It's warm now!

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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4 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

If we didn't have a rug pull I might've been looking at something similar to that. Gotta love being so close to the mountains, avg rainfall here is 80". What is it in North Bend? Gotta be similar.

60 inches in NB... probably 80 here.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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29 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Where do see 3-4 inches of rain falling overnight other than Mt Baker?     That would be very rare for my area and would take a stationary AR event on steroids for that kind of rain in 12 hours.   This is fairly fast moving frontal passage.    I am guessing 1.50 to 2 inches for the foothills.

Here is the ECMWF rainfall over the next 12 hours (8 p.m. through 8 a.m.):

 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_12hr_inch-1977200.png

Any theories on why there is such a big hole over WA county in this setup? Seeing this on many models and it seems bigger than the usual shadowing here. 

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Up to 72F in Carnation!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.5"; March 15th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

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Temp was 58 at 4pm and 70 now! Very breezy gusting close to 30mph and some light rain. I get off of work right at 10pm might be an interesting drive home. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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Still 70F at almost 9PM. Warm night. Single digit winds out of the S.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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Just now, Meatyorologist said:

Up to 72F in Carnation!

Midnight high? Lol noticed plenty of stations had some impressive temp rises and could have some impressive temp falls later tonight. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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3 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

Any theories on why there is such a big hole over WA county in this setup? Seeing this on many models and it seems bigger than the usual shadowing here. 

Almost a convective element with the main frontal line as it approaches from the W-NW. But a pretty strong orographic signature on all the models and the hi-res models all develop the band more as it moves across the metro area and begins to interact with the Cascades. Then the usual shadowing with the westerly flow present this weekend.

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13 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Temp was 58 at 4pm and 70 now! Very breezy gusting close to 30mph and some light rain. I get off of work right at 10pm might be an interesting drive home. 

Pretty warm right now too! Up to 68. Was just out 30 mins ago doing some last minute inspections and it felt quite warm with the breeze. Had a light sweater on for most of the day outside, not so much earlier! Fun system I would say. 

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10 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Almost a convective element with the main frontal line as it approaches from the W-NW. But a pretty strong orographic signature on all the models and the hi-res models all develop the band more as it moves across the metro area and begins to interact with the Cascades. Then the usual shadowing with the westerly flow present this weekend.

Yeah the models are clearly hinting at the orographic nature of this but I was surprised that even western WA county where the elevation can be 1500ft+ gets shafted real bad on some models. Not sure if its a resolution thing but it seems more than the usual shadowing here. Downtown PDX gets much more precip here than areas over 1000 ft in the eastern coast range on these maps:

qpf_acc.us_nw.png

qpf_acc.us_nw.png

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1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

Getting fairly breezy out there and it's such a warm wind, feels quite good actually. Might have to go for an evening walk and soak up the wind to tide me over until storms later this fall.

Gotta enjoy it while it happens and not stay focused on the radar/satellite/models/etc. I have a feeling that will be an important rule to remember come December.

Agree!!!

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58 degrees, .90" of rain.  A little breezy out but nothing like before.  There were lots of branches down in the road when I went out driving earlier.  Never lost power, but the lights flickered a lot.  Decent start to this September/November storm.

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