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September Wx Obs for the PacNW (2021 Edition)


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On 9/24/2021 at 2:45 PM, Phil said:

One problem with straight statistical analog methods is that 2nd/3rd year -ENSO/-QBO lacks any semblance of consistency or predictability, at least on the surface. The documented cases are all over the place. (* = borderline timing of QBO).

2nd/3rd year -ENSO/-QBO: 1956/57, *1967/68, 1974/75, 1984/85, *1996/97, 2000/01, *2011/12, *2012/13, 2017/18.

Useless on its face. The answers to this puzzle lie outside the ENSO/low-freq spectra. The only consistency is the *2nd year* events are heavily clustered during solar minimum or just afterwards on the upswing. But that makes sense anyway given the lagged IPWP response. Which by itself offers little if any seasonal/subseasonal scale predictability.

I think we might have some idea early on which direction the system wants to go if we’re going to trust seasonal models (they’re almost universal in the projection of early season wave driving). If that fails to materialize, then.. 🤷‍♂️ 

If we see early season wave driving, could that increase the chance of a PNW arctic blast in December?

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We hit 79. Average is around 70.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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4 hours ago, Jginmartini said:

Man, it feels great out!  Going to miss this but let the rains begin! 

Just because it rains does not mean there won't be more beautiful days.   Sure looks like that will be the case.   A gentle easing into fall this year.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Hit 67F today.  Last few days have been mid-60s as our highs.  Strangely, today the sky looked very smoggy towards the east.  Not sure why.  I looked to see if it was wildfire smoke, but couldn't figure it out.  Very gross, brown haze that wasn't there the previous day.

2021-09-25 13.27.03.jpg

2021-09-25 14.32.56.jpg

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Another fantastic day! Just beautiful. Got some high clouds above and more approaching the coast.

Should actually make for another spectacular sunset tonight. 

Currently 77 at BFI and in a Tim controlled fashion, we avoided 80 with a high of 79!😄  

CODNEXLAB-GOES-West-regional-w_northwest-07-00_41Z-20210926_map_-25-1n-10-100.gif

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13 minutes ago, ChrisTACWX96 said:

77 Eastside Tacoma-Salishan

76 Fort Steilacoom-Lakewood

84 Spanaway near WalMart

82 KPLU-South Hill Airport

82 EQC-Tacoma

75 KTIW-Narrows Airport

80 KTCM-McChord

80 KGRF-Fort Lewis 

82 Nisqually

79 KOLM-Olympia

78 My Apartments in South Lacey

 

South Sound temp range 75-84

South Hill was hot🥵

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1 hour ago, Cloud said:

Another fantastic day! Just beautiful. Got some high clouds above and more approaching the coast.

Should actually make for another spectacular sunset tonight. 

Currently 77 at BFI and in a Tim controlled fashion, we avoided 80 with a high of 79!😄  

CODNEXLAB-GOES-West-regional-w_northwest-07-00_41Z-20210926_map_-25-1n-10-100.gif

Another 79!  Getting strange.   😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Our rainmaker spinning in the gulf and intensifying. Got some dry air to work with to the south and wrapping it in, so that's gonna help with the intensification. A direct hit would probably be a very blustery day. 

CODNEXLAB-GOES-West-global-northernhemiwest-08-02_50Z-20210926_map_-25-1n-10-100.gif

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13 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Our rainmaker spinning in the gulf and intensifying. Got some dry air to work with to the south and wrapping it in, so that's gonna help with the intensification. A direct hit would probably be a very blustery day. 

CODNEXLAB-GOES-West-global-northernhemiwest-08-02_50Z-20210926_map_-25-1n-10-100.gif

Rather impressive.

https://ocean.weather.gov/P_sfc_full_ocean_color.png

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Just now, Cloud said:

Winds picking up again and feels real cool/nice. Already back down to 63. 

Last night while down by the water on the strait I felt the marine push hit. It came without clouds or warning, just an instantaneous 5-10F temperature drop and increase in westerlies. Totally nerded out in front of my bud b/c I wasn't expecting it, nor paying attention for that matter

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4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Last night while down by the water on the strait I felt the marine push hit. It came without clouds or warning, just an instantaneous 5-10F temperature drop and increase in westerlies. Totally nerded out in front of my bud b/c I wasn't expecting it, nor paying attention for that matter

That actually sounds wonderful. I've experienced this a few times a the waterfront when I went squid fishing late in the evening into the early morning hours. It can feel spooky at times when the fog just roll in out of nowhere but I loved it. 

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Absolutely amazing day! Was 77 degrees at the pumpkin patch at noon…Usually it’s about 48 and raining so this was perfect! Then the afternoon at the lake having fun in the boat for a few hours before putting it on the trailer for the winter…THEN dinner on the deck back at home. Perfect family day! 
75/51.  
Currently 54. 

97A698A8-7812-4692-ABCA-EBC2E6BC0EAD.jpeg

1417E8FB-D152-4791-A60F-26A77AF52037.jpeg

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I’ve become so acclimated to 24/7 heat that I was shivering my arse off this evening at 50°F. Literally teeth chattering, body trembling, chilled-to-the-bone shivering. What the actual phuck?

 

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4 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

No where near you is even close to 50°.

Weak front arrived ~ 1130pm and mixed out the nocturnal inversion. Up into the 60s now. Typical stuff.

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13 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Nah, no major station near you dropped to 50° or close to it.  Unless you moved.

What is a “major station”? Heck, why I’m even up debating this at 2AM is beyond me. :lol: 

2 of my 3 sensors were < 52°F. As was ALB DOT station. That’s enough confirmation for me.

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10 minutes ago, Phil said:

What is a “major station”? Heck, why I’m even up debating this at 2AM is beyond me. :lol: 

2 of my 3 sensors were < 52°F. As was ALB DOT station. That’s enough confirmation for me.

You're debating cuz you know I am right, and then throw out personal weather station data and some station you dont provide proof of. 

But hey, you do you.

Some things never change.

Oh, and it's 2:35 AM your time, not 2.

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8 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

You're debating cuz you know I am right, and then throw out personal weather station data and some station you dont provide proof of. 

But hey, you do you.

Some things never change.

Trust me, I’m not concerned about that at all.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Trust me, I’m not concerned about that at all.

And yes indeed, I have 3 high quality cross-calibrated sensors, each sited uniquely. Why wouldn’t I use that data? It’s by far the most accurate.

 

Lol, ok Phil. Make sure the actual certified mets there know that so they have the most accurate data compared to what they use.

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