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September Wx Obs for the PacNW (2021 Edition)


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Definitely chilly and it would be really nice to start out October below normal.

1633608000-flE4qSyTJJ8.png

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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Well checked my rain gauge after the last band departed. 10.09" for the month. Crazy. North of me at Spada Lake got 17" so I guess I got lucky? Either way, my rose bush continues to bloom and my grass is happy. 

That GFS run is glorious though. Gotta get a little gusty in there.

Edit: happy rose bush

20210930_161029.jpg

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7 hours ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

 

Yes, it’s accurate. Other weather stations within my vicinity are generally in line with my monthly total of 8.21” (I see a range of 7” to 9”). As you know, rainfall totals in our area vary considerably over short distance based on distance from Rattlesnake Mountain (it’s noticeable on neighborhood walks). I am right up against the base of the mountain and therefore see higher totals. That is why I typically put IMBY in my posts, to account for rain and temp differences affected by Rattlesnake Mountain. I suspect the quantity of rain has felt less pronounced because the soil is soaking up so much of it, so the creeks are barely running still.

I use an old fashioned three piece rain gauge for my records.  Cheap and unquestionably accurate.  The NWS used to use the type I have.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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11 minutes ago, The Blob said:

Just in time for your chilly winter 😂

Screenshot_20210930-230249_Google.jpg

I want them to bring back the gingerbread latte.  I was very disappointed when they discontinued that.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Some interesting analogs showing up right now.  October 1956 and 1971 both had lowland snow, and were followed by good winters.  Seeing 2008 and some other good ones as well.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Some interesting analogs showing up right now.  October 1956 and 1971 both had lowland snow, and were followed by good winters.  Seeing 2008 and some other good ones as well.

Yeah I just looked at Day 6-10, 8-14 and the pattern looks chilly.

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I'm still not sure this winter is going to have a very negative QBO.  The latest update shows it's very reluctant to switch to negative at the 50mb level.  Could be another failed or partially failed attempt at a negative phase.  Unfortunately the site that shows all of the stratospheric levels hasn't updated for quite some time.  The updates for the 30mb and 50mb levels show that September barely changed from August.

At this point a weak negative QBO at the low levels this winter is the best call IMO.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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7 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Wow... so sorry I asked about gauge accuracy.  I deeply apologize.   🤨    

Seemed surprisingly high.     But that is because there has been more rain that I thought.  

Sounds like a new TV show 'Rain Gauge Wars'. We go to different cities and measure area rain gauges that strive for accuracy and whomever wins gets a 1,000 dollar$ NWS approved weather station (if such a thing exists). 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm still not sure this winter is going to have a very negative QBO.  The latest update shows it's very reluctant to switch to negative at the 50mb level.  Could be another failed or partially failed attempt at a negative phase.  Unfortunately the site that shows all of the stratospheric levels hasn't updated for quite some time.  The updates for the 30mb and 50mb levels show that September barely changed from August.

At this point a weak negative QBO at the low levels this winter is the best call IMO.

These indices and teleconnections meant absolutely nothing down this way last year so I’m not sure how much stock I put into them. Whatever happens will happen.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

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The ECMWF likes a GOA ridge / NW trough regime, and is actually sharper and more continental than the GFS.  Pretty intriguing.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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The ECMWF surface projections show numerous highs in the low to mid 50s over the next 10 days with one day showing a low of 40 for SEA and 38 for McChord.  Some big time below normal temps.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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September ended with an average temp of 60, with a max high of 88 occurring on the 7th and a low of 39 on the 16th. 3.76 inches in the gauge for the month putting it in solidly wet territory. 

Overall a rather enjoyable month with dry spells, quick drenching rains, and comfortable temps. I'll take it. 

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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2 years ago today we had a record setting low of 36 and it was frosty. Had plenty of record setting lows in October 2019. Me not sold on early season cold some years it works out good others it doesn’t. Winter of 19-20 was garbage (not a nina) but then you’ve got years like 1949 and 1971 where it did (nina years like this one) so we will see IF we get any anomalous cold this year and see where it takes us. 

Monthly rainfall-0.57”

Cold season rainfall-15.72”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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8 hours ago, smerfylicious said:

Well checked my rain gauge after the last band departed. 10.09" for the month. Crazy. North of me at Spada Lake got 17" so I guess I got lucky? Either way, my rose bush continues to bloom and my grass is happy. 

That GFS run is glorious though. Gotta get a little gusty in there.

Edit: happy rose bush

20210930_161029.jpg

Meanwhile to the south of you, Sacramento just broke their record for longest dry streak which was 194 days set in 1880. Today will be 196 days with at least another weeks worth of dry conditions ahead. Astounding. 

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8 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Some interesting analogs showing up right now.  October 1956 and 1971 both had lowland snow, and were followed by good winters.  Seeing 2008 and some other good ones as well.

Just checked Tahoe city records and Oct 1956 is the snowiest Oct on record with 27" The rest of winter was average. 

 

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40 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Just checked Tahoe city records and Oct 1956 is the snowiest Oct on record with 27" The rest of winter was average. 

 

January 1957 was extremely cold in the PNW. Eugene s January record of -7 was set that month. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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