July 2015 Observations and Discussion

[Geos]

Second month is summer is almost upon us. Hard to believe it really.

 

CFS v2 says we all see a cooler than normal month.

 

[james1976]

Thats a lot of real estate forecasted to be cooler than normal.

[Geos]

If you want heat, go to the far western states. I don't see any heat waves coming out into the Plains anytime soon.

 

This was the 6z GFS for the next 10 days. Wet!

 

 

Edit:

 

12z got even wetter for some areas.

 

[Tom]

Went up to Castle Rock Lake this past weekend.  Saturday was by far one of the best summer days/nights this season and it happened to be on a Weekend (sarcastic)!  I'm wondering if this July may rival last year's July below normal departure.  The 4th of July weekend is looking superb so far.  Could be another epic summer weekend that most of us can enjoy.  Might end up going back up to Wisco nxt week and load up on some Fireworks~!

[BrianJK]

Went up to Castle Rock Lake this past weekend.  Saturday was by far one of the best summer days/nights this season and it happened to be on a Weekend (sarcastic)!  I'm wondering if this July may rival last year's July below normal departure.  The 4th of July weekend is looking superb so far.  Could be another epic summer weekend that most of us can enjoy.  Might end up going back up to Wisco nxt week and load up on some Fireworks~!

 

I hope so Tom!  Heading up to Eagle River for the week.  Originally had some cool weather forecasted, but temps have trended up in recent days.  Now calling for 75-80 most of late week into weekend.  I got a little nutty with the fireworks this year.  I seriously have enough to open a small store!  Lets hope mother nature cooperates.

[Tom]

I hope so Tom!  Heading up to Eagle River for the week.  Originally had some cool weather forecasted, but temps have trended up in recent days.  Now calling for 75-80 most of late week into weekend.  I got a little nutty with the fireworks this year.  I seriously have enough to open a small store!  Lets hope mother nature cooperates.

Couldn't ask for better weather from Mother Nature this weekend up near the Northwoods!  Wary days and cool nights for bon fires...ahhh, I could only imagine.  I need to stock up on some cakes and 3-5" shells.  I can get as nutty as you when it comes to Fireworks.  Normally I go to Shelton Fireworks in Porter, IN but I dont think I'll have time this year.  My friend can get commercial grade 5" shells and makes custom made tubes.  They produce some serious reports and produce some dazzling displays.

 

Lake Michigan water temps continue the cooler trend...

 

[NEJeremy]

There's some pretty good heat showing up next week, at least out here in the Plains from the 0Z GFS last night. We'll see if it happens though as whenever there has been heat forecasted in the extended, it's failed to materialize. We've only had one day over 90 this year!!

[james1976]

NW flow all week and then going more zonal by weekend. Temps over here look to be a bit below normal, which should be nice to be outside.

[Tom]

12z Euro showing a significant cool shot Day 6-8 near the Lakes and points East...

[Geos]

High of 70° today with a E wind all day. It's amazing all these comfortable days a row lately.

 

0.07" of rain last night. Almost to 17" for the year.

[Tom]

NOAA's updated July temp and precip forecast...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/off_temp_small.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/off_prcp_small.gif

[james1976]

Wow, Tom. I hope this keeps up into fall/winter! But that's a long ways off yet.

[Yerf]

Gotta love this for the Midwest this Holiday weekend!

 

[Tom]

Brrrrr....July opens with a Fall-like chill...

 

33 Tomahawk, 36 Eagle River, 37 Merrill, 37 Rhinelander, 38 Phillips, 39 Glidden

[Tom]

A barrage of cold fronts expected to hit the region beginning next week as the "cold phase" of the LRC begins.  06z GFS showing a pretty potent cold shot into the Lakes region by next weekend.  Might have to bring out the light sweaters and jackets!

[Niko]

Speaking of fall-like temps, my  temp Thursday night is expected to dip down into the 40s for crying out loud. For July standards, I'd say that is a pretty potent cool airmass coming down from Canada. Possible record lows could be broken throughout the midwest as high pressures builds in.

 

FWIW: No 90's yet reported in my area and none are expected. Lets see what happens down the road.

 

Once July finishes off and August rolls on it, then, its all downhill from there as we will be edging closer and closer to September. Although, September can bring some real hot days, its still September and you can feel that Autumn change in the atmosphere. How fast time passes its just amazing.

[james1976]

Nice fall-like day today. Cloudy and only upper 60s! Few sprinkles. Nice way to start out July. I might have a bonfire tonight.

[Geos]

I haven't even gotten to the upper 80s yet, let along 90° yet this year!

 

Yeah was today the first day of Autumn or July?!

High of 63° during the late morning and then the stratus took hold and kept the temps in the upper 50s the rest of the day.

 

Supposed to hit 80° on the 4th - will see. It's been 10 days since it has hit 80° or above.

[Tom]

After yesterday and today's cold, crisp morning...Fri-Sun is going to feel amazing.  I still can't believe how perfectly timed Mother Nature has arranged 100% rain free days for this holiday weekend.  Driving up to Wisco later today.  I hope everyone will enjoy the 4th of July weekend.  For those with Fireworks, be safe and have a blast lighting them off!  

 

On another note, a Super Typhoon is poised to hit near China or Japan within the next 6-8 days.  Will be interesting to see if it cuts north and buckles the jet 6-10 days later over the East.  It would make sense if it does as it would be right in line with the LRC's cold phase.  July ain't looking like a mid summer month.  If I remember correctly, the summer of 2009 was rather wet and chilly and that to was an El Nino summer.  

[james1976]

After yesterday and today's cold, crisp morning...Fri-Sun is going to feel amazing.  I still can't believe how perfectly timed Mother Nature has arranged 100% rain free days for this holiday weekend.  Driving up to Wisco later today.  I hope everyone will enjoy the 4th of July weekend.  For those with Fireworks, be safe and have a blast lighting them off!  

 

On another note, a Super Typhoon is poised to hit near China or Japan within the next 6-8 days.  Will be interesting to see if it cuts north and buckles the jet 6-10 days later over the East.  It would make sense if it does as it would be right in line with the LRC's cold phase.  July ain't looking like a mid summer month.  If I remember correctly, the summer of 2009 was rather wet and chilly and that to was an El Nino summer.  

Yes, pretty much that entire summer was wet and chilly and the winter following it was quite harsh if im correct. Was 09-10 winter an el nino?

[Tom]

Yes, pretty much that entire summer was wet and chilly and the winter following it was quite harsh if im correct. Was 09-10 winter an el nino?

It was, and that winter had a lot of blocking as well.  The '09-'10 Winter had a good snowfall at ORD, exceeding 50", it was among a string of 4 or 5 years straight that produced a record for consecutive winter seasons exceeding 50" snowfall totals.

[Geos]

45° this morning! I had a few windows open and I had to shut them most of the way around 3am, because it was getting too chilly inside. July is usually the only month it doesn't go under 50°... can't say that about this month anymore!

High of only 64° today, which is 16° below normal.

 

Local forecast now holding the 80s off until Monday now. Never seen so many few days above 80° in a season up until this point.

[Geos]

A very nice Fourth of July today! High of 77° today with skies that were a little smoky from the wildfires in Saskatchewan.

[NEJeremy]

forecast highs in the low 70s and lows in the mid 50s here starting tonight and lasting through Wed night!! Yesterday was only the second day it made it to 90 degrees here

[gabel23]

It's crazy to think we would be affected by smoke from Canada but we sure are. I can smell it and see the haze in the air, must be some massive fires up in that area. Picked up an 1" of rain over night pushing my total in July up over 2.5" already. Gotta like the start for July which can turn dry pretty quickly......

[Geos]

It's crazy to think we would be affected by smoke from Canada but we sure are. I can smell it and see the haze in the air, must be some massive fires up in that area. Picked up an 1" of rain over night pushing my total in July up over 2.5" already. Gotta like the start for July which can turn dry pretty quickly......

 

Hundred of fires stretch from the northwest portion of Ontario, to clear across to the Coast Mountains of BC. They're particularly bad in northern Saskatchewan.

 

http://www.esri.com/services/disaster-response/wildlandfire/latest-news-map

 

 

Statement for areas of dense smoke tonight. Don't be surprised if it smells like a campfire later tonight.

 

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

607 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

 

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-070200-

MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-

WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-

LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTELLO...BERLIN...FOND DU LAC...

SHEBOYGAN...BARABOO...PORTAGE...WISCONSIN DELLS...BEAVER DAM...

WEST BEND...PORT WASHINGTON...DODGEVILLE...MADISON...JEFFERSON...

LAKE MILLS...WAUKESHA...BROOKFIELD...MILWAUKEE...DARLINGTON...

MONROE...JANESVILLE...BELOIT...ELKHORN...LAKE GENEVA...RACINE...

KENOSHA

607 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

 

...LOOK FOR AREAS OF SMOKE BEHIND COLD FRONT TONIGHT...

 

SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS AND SPOTTER REPORTS ACROSS

MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN INDICATE THERE IS AN AREA OF

SMOKE COLLECTING IN THE WAKE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THAT

FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING...REACHING

MADISON BY AROUND 9 PM AND MILWAUKEE CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT.

 

ONCE THE FRONT PASSES BY VISIBILITIES MAY DROP TO 1 TO 2 MILES

AND YOU MAY EVEN SMELL THE ODOR OF SMOKE. THIS SMOKE CONTINUES TO

BE CAUSED BY CANADIAN WILDFIRES AND ITS HEADED SOUTH DUE TO THE

NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.

 

WE/RE NOT ENTIRELY SURE HOW LONG THE SMOKE WILL LINGER...BUT

THOSE WITH A RESPIRATORY CONDITION THAT MAY BE AGGRAVATED BY THE SMOKE

SHOULD BE PREPARED TO SEEK AN INDOOR LOCATION. THE SMOKE SHOULD

CLEAR OUT BY MORNING.

 

[gabel23]

Hundred of fires stretch from the northwest portion of Ontario, to clear across to the Coast Mountains of BC. They're particularly bad in northern Saskatchewan.

 

http://www.esri.com/services/disaster-response/wildlandfire/latest-news-map

Thanks for the link geo!

[Geos]

No problem Gabel.

 

Article written today on it.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/thousands-evacuate-as-wildfires-burn-in-west-canada/ar-AAcDLiF?ocid=answeatherap11

 

High of 85° today, which is the highest temperature of the year so far! Talk about a crazy cool summer so far.

[Hawkeye]

I was left out of the latest heavy rain event.  There was a 2-4+ inch bullseye in central Iowa and another in the Quad Cities area, but only 0.36" fell here.  There is potential for more ring-of-fire action this weekend, depending on where the front sets up.  The Euro hits us repeatedly, but the GFS is farthern north.  Given the trend this summer, south is the way to go.

[Geos]

Grand total of 0.59" of rain from this frontal system. Today is a much nice and clearer day. Don't see any smoke today.

 

Correction: more smoke expected later today.

 

 

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-072300-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTELLO...BERLIN...FOND DU LAC...
SHEBOYGAN...BARABOO...PORTAGE...WISCONSIN DELLS...BEAVER DAM...
WEST BEND...PORT WASHINGTON...DODGEVILLE...MADISON...JEFFERSON...
LAKE MILLS...WAUKESHA...BROOKFIELD...MILWAUKEE...DARLINGTON...
MONROE...JANESVILLE...BELOIT...ELKHORN...LAKE GENEVA...RACINE...
KENOSHA
447 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015


...SPECIAL AIR QUALITY NOTICE FOR PARTS OF WISCONSIN...

THE WISCONSIN DEPARTMENT OF NATURAL RESOURCES HAS ISSUED A
SPECIAL AIR QUALITY NOTICE FOR PARTS OF WISCONSIN.

THE WILDFIRE SMOKE THAT HAS BEEN OVER WISCONSIN FOR SEVERAL DAYS
IS NOW BEING BROUGHT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS OF MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. TYPICALLY...THE AIR BEHIND
A COLD FRONT IS DESCENDING THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS
DESCENDING MOTION IS WHAT IS BRINGING THE WILDFIRE SMOKE TO GROUND
LEVEL.

THE PM2.5 AIR QUALITY HAS REACHED THE UNHEALTHY LEVEL FOR
SENSITIVE GROUPS (ORANGE CATEGORY) AT SEVERAL MONITORING SITES
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE SENSITIVE GROUPS
CATEGORY INCLUDES CHILDREN...ELDERLY PEOPLE...INDIVIDUALS WITH
RESPIRATORY AND CARDIAC PROBLEMS...OR ANYONE ENGAGED IN STRENUOUS
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME.

THE WIDTH AND DENSITY OF THE SMOKE PLUME WILL VARY AT ANY GIVEN
LOCATION. THE FORECAST IS FOR THE SMOKE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING.

FOR CURRENT INFORMATION ON AIR QUALITY READINGS PLEASE CALL
THE DAILY AIR HOTLINE AT 1-866-DAILYAIR...1-866-324-5924.

$

 

[james1976]

Really nice here today. Only upper 60s! We have had some cool days so far this summer. I'll take this over the heat and humidity.

[Geos]

High of 71° early today. Rain cleared out early and the sun came out, but the temperatures fell. Daytime high in the mid 60s only!

 

I think this summer might beat out last summer for cool temperatures.

[Tom]

The Euro beat out the GFS regarding the pattern this weekend. Run after run, the GFS wanted to paint near 90F temps near the Lakes, but that has now changed and a chance of showers/storms instead.  Depending on cloud cover, 70's are the way to go, which I don't mind at all anyway.  There goes the beach day!

 

This past 4th of July weekend had to be the best weekend thus far this summer.  We had some spectacular sunsets up in Wisco and the Moon was fiery red.  Tons of Fireworks, bon fires, roasting polish sausage on the fire, soaking up some sun at the beach and did some river tubing as well.  I didn't want to leave!  Back to reality...

[Tom]

Various Global Models, including the one below, are forecasting a monster GOA Low this Winter which will pump the NW NAMER ridge.  That is a nice looking 500mb pattern.  It's also showing a nice southern jet.  I think the trough in the GOA will be a bit farther west than where it is showing the trough on this map.  The warmer waters will be hugging the coast in the west.

 

[Tom]

Here is a glimpse of the SST's over the past 3 years around this date in each calendar year.  I'm going to focus on the N Pacific.  In 2013, we saw the N Pacific just beginning to warm as the ocean began to create a massive warm pool...

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2013/anomnight.7.4.2013.gif

 

In 2014, the warm pool remained in the NE Pacific....

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.7.7.2014.gif

 

This year, the warm pool is even warmer and holding strong.  Notice the real cold waters flowing off the Siberian/Asian coastline that seems to be migrating eastward, south of the Aleutians and north of Hawaii.  This will be a "key" ingredient and influence on how the LRC develops this Fall.  The colder waters will most likely deepen a trough in these waters.  That trough will ultimately pump that NW NAMER ridge, unleashing bouts of cold/frigid air into the lower 48.  I'm expecting the warm waters to hug the NW NAMER coast and would not be surprised to see very warm waters pumped up bc of the deepening trough to the west.  Might here some interesting news this winter about sea life thriving near the AK/CA shorelines.

 

On another note, the warm waters located in the E PAC will probably spawn some late season Hurricanes near the Baja/Mexico border in October when the new LRC sets up for the following year.  Wonder how active the southern jet sets up this Fall as apposed to last season when we really didn't see much.  I'd imagine a mature El Nino should do the trick.  These are just my thoughts on where I see the SST's progressing and how they may influence our weather next Fall/Winter.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomnight.7.6.2015.gif

[Geos]

Nice write up Tom. I think a big part of the North Pacific will end up cooling off below normal, but like you said some warmer water will be left close to the West Coast. I have a feeling the ridge will be weaker and a bit more East this coming winter - partially because of El Niño.

 

Anyways that's a ways off.

It's amazing how cool July is going. High of 63° today with stratus most of the day. Feels like September already! If low solar activity is part of this new summer time regime, then I guess we better get used to more weather like this!

[Tom]

Nice write up Tom. I think a big part of the North Pacific will end up cooling off below normal, but like you said some warmer water will be left close to the West Coast. I have a feeling the ridge will be weaker and a bit more East this coming winter - partially because of El Niño.

 

Anyways that's a ways off.

It's amazing how cool July is going. High of 63° today with stratus most of the day. Feels like September already! If low solar activity is part of this new summer time regime, then I guess we better get used to more weather like this!

Skilling said that this is the coolest start to July in 31 years!  He also mentioned MDW has seen back to back sub 70's in July only 2 other times in over 90 years.  Pretty chilly July thus far.  Looking forward to seeing some warmth this weekend.

[BrianJK]

This past 4th of July weekend had to be the best weekend thus far this summer.  We had some spectacular sunsets up in Wisco and the Moon was fiery red.  Tons of Fireworks, bon fires, roasting polish sausage on the fire, soaking up some sun at the beach and did some river tubing as well.  I didn't want to leave!  Back to reality...

 

Amen to that!

[Tom]

Signals are showing up of a pattern change for the west, and the LRC's warm phase should begin to emerge late next week (July 16-20th).  When I was in AZ for the month of May, it was down right pleasant with below normal temps during the previous cycle.  Meanwhile, from IA and points east it was a rather warm month.  Let's see how warm it gets around here for the later half of July.

[james1976]

Nice write up Tom. I think a big part of the North Pacific will end up cooling off below normal, but like you said some warmer water will be left close to the West Coast. I have a feeling the ridge will be weaker and a bit more East this coming winter - partially because of El Niño.

 

Anyways that's a ways off.

It's amazing how cool July is going. High of 63° today with stratus most of the day. Feels like September already! If low solar activity is part of this new summer time regime, then I guess we better get used to more weather like this!

My God, how many days this summer have you been in the 60s? You must be right close to the lake?