ECMWF looks somewhat similar but not real wet. Looks like we won't be missing any warm, sunny weather while we are gone. Need it to be stormy starting next Wednesday!
The first 5 days are dry but the faucet of life turns on week-2.
If the pattern evolved exactly as modeled, it actually might “solve” a lot (esp extrapolating that pattern forward). Doesn’t mean it will verify but it’s one of the possibilities.
I’m actually optimistic about a wetter pattern as the MJO returns to the E-Hem. Maybe not quite to the level of the 12z CMC, but in that general direction. There’s nothing in the system state to suggest 2024 will be a dry tinderbox in the PNW.
That said, those in CA/SW US should keep a watchful eye as the second half of this year could flip dry. Good thing those reservoirs are filled to the brim because La Niña will take no prisoners once it establishes.
Only “good” news is we shouldn’t have the godzilla-like 4CH roasting the intermountain west this summer. Will be at least somewhat flatter/suppressed, but not to the extent of 2008 where it was almost nonexistent. More likely to resemble 2020 or 2010.
It probably won’t be enough to stop a very warm summer nationally, though. The broader mid-latitude pattern looks ugly, and I suspect the entire lower-48 (including WA/OR) will run warmer than average. But the nastiest stuff will probably center in the Plains or Midwest, not at the coasts.
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