July 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[ShawniganLake 5259]

Back home on Vancouver island this evening. Was a very smoky drive home from Watch Lake in the BC Cariboo. Had a low of 39F up there this morning. The air was pretty thick with smoke in the Fraser Canyon, visibility probably less than 1000ft at times. Couldn't even see the river or mountains on the opposite side of the canyon south of Lytton.

[SilverFallsAndrew 13082]

Just noticed that a marine push made it into the S. valley today. Eugene "only" made it up to 83 and is already down to 71. Looks like SLE is dropping fairly rapidly this evening too with a nice westerly breeze. 

[SilverFallsAndrew 13082]

It looks like most Willamette Valley and metro locations are running 8-10 degrees cooler tonight as compared to 24 hours ago. 

[Jesse 7705]

It looks like most Willamette Valley and metro locations are running 8-10 degrees cooler tonight as compared to 24 hours ago.

I've noticed. It feels lovely.

 

Maybe we can dodge 90 tomorrow in the Portland area, as outlandish as that sounds.

[MossMan 9295]

Already down to 66 here and quite breezy. First time under 70 at this time of the evening in many days.

[Phil 10996]

The 30mb QBO has now flipped..only other Niño/+Solar years to do so in MJJ were 1957-58 and 1969-70.

[Deweydog 13280]

The 30mb QBO has now flipped..only other Niño/+Solar years to do so in MJJ were 1957-58 and 1969-70.

Ice age!!!!!!!!!!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

?

[Jesse 7705]

The 30mb QBO has now flipped..only other Niño/+Solar years to do so in MJJ were 1957-58 and 1969-70.

MJJ of the years 1957/1969 or 1958/1970?

[Jesse 7705]

Already down to 66 here and quite breezy. First time under 70 at this time of the evening in many days.

No sleeping naked on the dock tonight!

[SilverFallsAndrew 13082]

Already down to 64 in Corvallis with a west wind gusting to 23! Must feel amazing!

[Phil 10996]

MJJ of the years 1957/1969 or 1958/1970?

MJJ of 1957/1969. Obviously there were differences in the tropics during both of those yrs relative to this one, but they're good low-freq guide analogs, in my opinion. Just something to watch at this point.

[Phil 10996]

Ice age!!!!!!!!!!!

 

?

Eventually, yes.

 

They're just analogs to keep an eye on..some of the 1980s analogs are looking good too.

[SilverFallsAndrew 13082]

Eventually, yes.

 

They're just analogs to keep an eye on..some of the 1980s analogs are looking good too.

 

Which ones?

[BLI snowman 5822]

Which ones?

 

All of them. 1979-80 to 1988-89 looks like a strong analog for next winter, IMHO. 

[SilverFallsAndrew 13082]

A sub-60 low at PDX. 

[iFred 4653]

Felt refreshing this morning.

[Jesse 7705]

Clouds!!

[Deweydog 13280]

A sub-60 low at PDX.

Clearly the sensor is bad.

[Front Ranger 7373]

0z Euro indicates a second trough will move in shortly after the first one.

[primetime 25]

The 30mb QBO has now flipped..only other Niño/+Solar years to do so in MJJ were 1957-58 and 1969-70.

 

Phil - why would this be considered +Solar since we are in a weak solar cycle and descending from the max?  Solar flux is more inline with what is considered neutral in strength, but maybe you are looking at many other parameters?

[Jesse 7705]

Could the 90+ streak end today at PDX?

 

If so they will avoid beating the 2009 record (ten consecutive) with eight consecutive. Still would be good for second longest stretch in history.

 

Still socked in up in Vancouver.

[BLI snowman 5822]

Could the 90+ streak end today at PDX?

 

If so they will avoid beating the 2009 record (ten consecutive) with eight consecutive. Still would be good for second longest stretch in history.

 

Still socked in up in Vancouver.

 

3rd, 1967 had 8 also.

[Jesse 7705]

3rd, 1967 had 8 also.

Oooh, good catch.

 

For some reason I thought the pre-2009 record was 7.

[TT-SEA 1764]

12Z Canadian keeps the trough offshore with southerly flow and humid conditions through the weekend into early next week... then starts to build in a ridge again.

 

I am not buying the GFS solution in the 10-15 day range.   Its been too aggressive lately and I think the end result will be flat ridging in that period.   

[Chris 643]

Phil - why would this be considered +Solar since we are in a weak solar cycle and descending from the max?  Solar flux is more inline with what is considered neutral in strength, but maybe you are looking at many other parameters?

 

I was wondering the same thing.  In the past Phil has mentioned the rate of change.

 

The QBO flipping should make a SSW more likely this winter.  Anyone know of a place to check where SSW's go in ENSO+ years?

SSW = Sudden Stratospheric Warmings which can bring a polar vortex to the lower latitudes.

[TT-SEA 1764]

I was wondering the same thing.  In the past Phil has mentioned the rate of change.

 

The QBO flipping should make a SSW more likely this winter.  Anyone know of a place to check where SSW's go in ENSO+ years?

SSW = Sudden Stratospheric Warmings which can bring a polar vortex to the lower latitudes.

 

Probably work out great for Boston again!  

[Jesse 7705]

Good support for an extended troughy period on the 12z GFS and its ensembles.

[TT-SEA 1764]

12Z Canadian was not on board for anything more than a weak trough early next week... 12Z ECMWF agrees and then backed way off the second trough in favor of flat ridging.  I suspect this is what will happen.

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015070712!!chart.gif

[richard mann 454]

Good support for an extended troughy period on the 12z GFS and its ensembles.

 

No dates / timeframe mentioned here or above. @

 

— What are you looking at (depicted), more specifically considering the idea more general. ?

[richard mann 454]

With what I'm looking at colder air focused @, I'm estimating that we see a generally more zonal flow through to the what Tim has posted tacked in above. 
 
This, with then some potential for some amount of troughing perhaps more post the 16th.

[TT-SEA 1764]

12Z ECMWF also took away all the rain it showed for Sunday on the 00Z run.  

[Phil 10996]

Phil - why would this be considered +Solar since we are in a weak solar cycle and descending from the max? Solar flux is more inline with what is considered neutral in strength, but maybe you are looking at many other parameters?

The cycle integral, or the rate + magnitude of change over time correlates better to certain behaviors than the absolute fluxes. On the longer term, the absolute fluxes are a bigger deal.

 

Think of the flagpole analogy. If you shake the flag pole at a frequency analogous to it's resonance period, the sway of the pole will amplify and you can break the flag pole. However, if you shake the pole at a frequency above or below it's resonance period, you won't really move it much. Seasonal-scale forcings are all relatively high frequency from a climatological standpoint, and operate on an equilibrative basis.

[Phil 10996]

I was wondering the same thing. In the past Phil has mentioned the rate of change.

 

The QBO flipping should make a SSW more likely this winter. Anyone know of a place to check where SSW's go in ENSO+ years?

SSW = Sudden Stratospheric Warmings which can bring a polar vortex to the lower latitudes.

The SSW potential is determined by a lot more than the QBO sign (+/-) though. The timing of the flip, the amplitude of the phase, and the rate of phase progression all matter, as does the ENSO/AAM base (governs wave spacing and sign of poleward AAM transport) and solar forcing (governs strength of Brewer Dobson Cells, SAO forcing on QBO, O^3 photodissociation rate/PV strength, and stratopausal eddy fluxes).

 

So, basically, all we know is that 2015-16 will be a Niño/+QBO/+solar winter..that can mean a bunch of things depending on the factors mentioned in the previous paragraph.

[TT-SEA 1764]

12Z ECMWF screws us out of much if any rain through the weekend and into early next week.

That is a truly sucky scenario.

[richard mann 454]

Could the 90+ streak end today at PDX?

 

If so they will avoid beating the 2009 record (ten consecutive) with eight consecutive. Still would be good for second longest stretch in history.

Regarding the greater levels of heat focused more northward in general over the past 10 or so days, … I'm definitely marking this more atypical occurrence to a "corralling" or "boxing" in of heat and pressure, i.e. more due to and in line with what still present and fairly dense colder air had been doing. Essentially having worked to varying degrees to have sheared up and amplified whatever ridging having developed and been in place—still to this point somewhat.

 

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2015/06/heat-surge-hits-eastern-washington.html

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2015/07/why-is-northwest-so-warm.html  @

 

— An idea / effect that more generally works to confine earlier main heating to and within and through the SW, .. Just where still present cold is distributed during the earlier warming season has, I've found, quite a bit to do with what heats up more substantially, even more radically or quickly.

 

.. In this case, colder air, still fairly dense and plentiful, had been in a general expansion mode - south, through to the 1st of July. This with its otherwise slower pace east through to about then, both, having lent to a generally more meridionally type of patterning, together with also of note, a more monsoonal flow (of some fairly dense cover.) more westward, to the south—also having worked to box heat in even from the south—with the generally cooler temps of the Pacific having been what has been working to clear out that more retrograde cover. This while colder air, having been regressing more northward since the 2nd of July has worked to lessen the over-all pressure potential more southward, more generally.

[Deweydog 13280]

12Z ECMWF screws us out of much if any rain through the weekend and into early next week.

 

That is a truly sucky scenario.

Glimmer of hope for fire fans!

[Chris 643]

Glimmer of hope for fire fans!

 

I was reading the update on the Corner Creek fire.  They were throwing most of the resources at the southern line to protect sage grouse habitat.  The northern part was burning into a wilderness area.  They had to send specially trained hot shot crews to tenderly slow down the fire's advance, because they want to have a light-on-the-land impact.  I guess man-made fire breaks are worse than letting it burn to the ground.

[Chris 643]

The SSW potential is determined by a lot more than the QBO sign (+/-) though. The timing of the flip, the amplitude of the phase, and the rate of phase progression all matter, as does the ENSO/AAM base (governs wave spacing and sign of poleward AAM transport) and solar forcing (governs strength of Brewer Dobson Cells, SAO forcing on QBO, O^3 photodissociation rate/PV strength, and stratopausal eddy fluxes).

 

So, basically, all we know is that 2015-16 will be a Niño/+QBO/+solar winter..that can mean a bunch of things depending on the factors mentioned in the previous paragraph.

 

Yes there are lots of factors.  I'm surprised you didn't mention Rossby waves.  But what is stratopausal eddy flux?  Is that like menopausal hot flashes?

[Chris 643]

12Z Canadian was not on board for anything more than a weak trough early next week... 12Z ECMWF agrees and then backed way off the second trough in favor of flat ridging.  I suspect this is what will happen.

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015070712!!chart.gif

 

Only 10 days away.  Is that a hurricane?  Could make things interesting for California down the road.

[Deweydog 13280]

I was reading the update on the Corner Creek fire. They were throwing most of the resources at the southern line to protect sage grouse habitat. The northern part was burning into a wilderness area. They had to send specially trained hot shot crews to tenderly slow down the fire's advance, because they want to have a light-on-the-land impact. I guess man-made fire breaks are worse than letting it burn to the ground.

Fire is natural. What isn't natural is when some whack job sets a fire in Wenatchee with the intent of having it run like a mofo into a residential area.

[Jesse 7705]

Wow, 12z Euro ensembles are even troughier than the op.

 

Nice to see a decent midsummer troughy period. Would be a big departure from the past few years.

[Chris 643]

Wow, 12z Euro ensembles are even troughier than the op.

 

Nice to see a decent midsummer troughy period. Would be a big departure from the past few years.

 

http://s8.postimg.org/g52xj071h/ecmwf_ens_z500_mslp_namer_11.png

[SilverFallsAndrew 13082]

Looks like PDX and SLE don't hit 90 today. 

[Deweydog 13280]

Looks like PDX and SLE don't hit 90 today.

Paradise Lost.

[MossMan 9295]

Wow, 12z Euro ensembles are even troughier than the op.

 

Nice to see a decent midsummer troughy period. Would be a big departure from the past few years.

So your saying enjoy tomorrow and Thursday since the Mid July ice age is coming?

[bainbridgekid 2874]

81 at SEA and it felt practically chilly out today.

 

Crazy how quickly our bodies acclimate.

[TT-SEA 1764]

So your saying enjoy tomorrow and Thursday since the Mid July ice age is coming?

The ECMWF was a huge disappointment in terms of troughing and rain. He is seeing things that aren't even there.

[Deweydog 13280]

16 degrees warmer at 8pm compared to 24 hours earlier in Eugene.

 

Summer is back!

[TT-SEA 1764]

16 degrees warmer at 8pm compared to 24 hours earlier in Eugene.

 

Summer is back!

86 here today with wall-to-wall sun filtered by a thin layer of smoke. Did I miss fall?

[Deweydog 13280]

86 here today with wall-to-wall sun filtered by a thin layer of smoke. Did I miss fall?

It was 8pm yesterday until about 10am this morning down here. Southerly pushes rock!