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July 2015 in the Pacific Northwest


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Back home on Vancouver island this evening. Was a very smoky drive home from Watch Lake in the BC Cariboo. Had a low of 39F up there this morning. The air was pretty thick with smoke in the Fraser Canyon, visibility probably less than 1000ft at times. Couldn't even see the river or mountains on the opposite side of the canyon south of Lytton.

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As a layman, it seems like I see this peculiar attitude often in the scientific community:  what starts out as an admirable respect for evidence-based thinking degenerates into a sort of extremist clo

Basically my thinking as well.   It's telling that EUG and the infallible OLM are both pacing for all time July records on their average lows this month.   This in a month that has had 95% of its days

So much for the pleasant summer weather; better hope this doesn't work its way south because up around central Vancouver Island everything is socked in with smoke and falling ash. Much of it is from s

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Just noticed that a marine push made it into the S. valley today. Eugene "only" made it up to 83 and is already down to 71. Looks like SLE is dropping fairly rapidly this evening too with a nice westerly breeze. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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It looks like most Willamette Valley and metro locations are running 8-10 degrees cooler tonight as compared to 24 hours ago. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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It looks like most Willamette Valley and metro locations are running 8-10 degrees cooler tonight as compared to 24 hours ago.

I've noticed. It feels lovely.

 

Maybe we can dodge 90 tomorrow in the Portland area, as outlandish as that sounds.

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Already down to 64 in Corvallis with a west wind gusting to 23! Must feel amazing!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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MJJ of the years 1957/1969 or 1958/1970?

MJJ of 1957/1969. Obviously there were differences in the tropics during both of those yrs relative to this one, but they're good low-freq guide analogs, in my opinion. Just something to watch at this point.

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Ice age!!!!!!!!!!!

 

?

Eventually, yes.

 

They're just analogs to keep an eye on..some of the 1980s analogs are looking good too.

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Eventually, yes.

 

They're just analogs to keep an eye on..some of the 1980s analogs are looking good too.

 

Which ones?

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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A sub-60 low at PDX. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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The 30mb QBO has now flipped..only other Niño/+Solar years to do so in MJJ were 1957-58 and 1969-70.

 

Phil - why would this be considered +Solar since we are in a weak solar cycle and descending from the max?  Solar flux is more inline with what is considered neutral in strength, but maybe you are looking at many other parameters?

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Could the 90+ streak end today at PDX?

 

If so they will avoid beating the 2009 record (ten consecutive) with eight consecutive. Still would be good for second longest stretch in history.

 

Still socked in up in Vancouver.

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Could the 90+ streak end today at PDX?

 

If so they will avoid beating the 2009 record (ten consecutive) with eight consecutive. Still would be good for second longest stretch in history.

 

Still socked in up in Vancouver.

 

3rd, 1967 had 8 also.

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12Z Canadian keeps the trough offshore with southerly flow and humid conditions through the weekend into early next week... then starts to build in a ridge again.

 

I am not buying the GFS solution in the 10-15 day range.   Its been too aggressive lately and I think the end result will be flat ridging in that period.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Phil - why would this be considered +Solar since we are in a weak solar cycle and descending from the max?  Solar flux is more inline with what is considered neutral in strength, but maybe you are looking at many other parameters?

 

I was wondering the same thing.  In the past Phil has mentioned the rate of change.

 

The QBO flipping should make a SSW more likely this winter.  Anyone know of a place to check where SSW's go in ENSO+ years?

SSW = Sudden Stratospheric Warmings which can bring a polar vortex to the lower latitudes.

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I was wondering the same thing.  In the past Phil has mentioned the rate of change.

 

The QBO flipping should make a SSW more likely this winter.  Anyone know of a place to check where SSW's go in ENSO+ years?

SSW = Sudden Stratospheric Warmings which can bring a polar vortex to the lower latitudes.

 

Probably work out great for Boston again!  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12Z Canadian was not on board for anything more than a weak trough early next week... 12Z ECMWF agrees and then backed way off the second trough in favor of flat ridging.  I suspect this is what will happen.

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015070712!!chart.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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With what I'm looking at colder air focused @, I'm estimating that we see a generally more zonal flow through to the what Tim has posted tacked in above. 
 
This, with then some potential for some amount of troughing perhaps more post the 16th.

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12Z ECMWF also took away all the rain it showed for Sunday on the 00Z run.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Phil - why would this be considered +Solar since we are in a weak solar cycle and descending from the max? Solar flux is more inline with what is considered neutral in strength, but maybe you are looking at many other parameters?

The cycle integral, or the rate + magnitude of change over time correlates better to certain behaviors than the absolute fluxes. On the longer term, the absolute fluxes are a bigger deal.

 

Think of the flagpole analogy. If you shake the flag pole at a frequency analogous to it's resonance period, the sway of the pole will amplify and you can break the flag pole. However, if you shake the pole at a frequency above or below it's resonance period, you won't really move it much. Seasonal-scale forcings are all relatively high frequency from a climatological standpoint, and operate on an equilibrative basis.

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I was wondering the same thing. In the past Phil has mentioned the rate of change.

 

The QBO flipping should make a SSW more likely this winter. Anyone know of a place to check where SSW's go in ENSO+ years?

SSW = Sudden Stratospheric Warmings which can bring a polar vortex to the lower latitudes.

The SSW potential is determined by a lot more than the QBO sign (+/-) though. The timing of the flip, the amplitude of the phase, and the rate of phase progression all matter, as does the ENSO/AAM base (governs wave spacing and sign of poleward AAM transport) and solar forcing (governs strength of Brewer Dobson Cells, SAO forcing on QBO, O^3 photodissociation rate/PV strength, and stratopausal eddy fluxes).

 

So, basically, all we know is that 2015-16 will be a Niño/+QBO/+solar winter..that can mean a bunch of things depending on the factors mentioned in the previous paragraph.

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12Z ECMWF screws us out of much if any rain through the weekend and into early next week.

That is a truly sucky scenario.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Could the 90+ streak end today at PDX?

 

If so they will avoid beating the 2009 record (ten consecutive) with eight consecutive. Still would be good for second longest stretch in history.

Regarding the greater levels of heat focused more northward in general over the past 10 or so days, … I'm definitely marking this more atypical occurrence to a "corralling" or "boxing" in of heat and pressure, i.e. more due to and in line with what still present and fairly dense colder air had been doing. Essentially having worked to varying degrees to have sheared up and amplified whatever ridging having developed and been in placestill to this point somewhat.

 

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2015/06/heat-surge-hits-eastern-washington.html

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2015/07/why-is-northwest-so-warm.html  @

 

An idea / effect that more generally works to confine earlier main heating to and within and through the SW, .. Just where still present cold is distributed during the earlier warming season has, I've found, quite a bit to do with what heats up more substantially, even more radically or quickly.

 

.. In this case, colder air, still fairly dense and plentiful, had been in a general expansion mode - south, through to the 1st of July. This with its otherwise slower pace east through to about then, both, having lent to a generally more meridionally type of patterning, together with also of note, a more monsoonal flow (of some fairly dense cover.) more westward, to the southalso having worked to box heat in even from the southwith the generally cooler temps of the Pacific having been what has been working to clear out that more retrograde cover. This while colder air, having been regressing more northward since the 2nd of July has worked to lessen the over-all pressure potential more southward, more generally.

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12Z ECMWF screws us out of much if any rain through the weekend and into early next week.

 

That is a truly sucky scenario.

Glimmer of hope for fire fans!

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Glimmer of hope for fire fans!

 

I was reading the update on the Corner Creek fire.  They were throwing most of the resources at the southern line to protect sage grouse habitat.  The northern part was burning into a wilderness area.  They had to send specially trained hot shot crews to tenderly slow down the fire's advance, because they want to have a light-on-the-land impact.  I guess man-made fire breaks are worse than letting it burn to the ground.

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The SSW potential is determined by a lot more than the QBO sign (+/-) though. The timing of the flip, the amplitude of the phase, and the rate of phase progression all matter, as does the ENSO/AAM base (governs wave spacing and sign of poleward AAM transport) and solar forcing (governs strength of Brewer Dobson Cells, SAO forcing on QBO, O^3 photodissociation rate/PV strength, and stratopausal eddy fluxes).

 

So, basically, all we know is that 2015-16 will be a Niño/+QBO/+solar winter..that can mean a bunch of things depending on the factors mentioned in the previous paragraph.

 

Yes there are lots of factors.  I'm surprised you didn't mention Rossby waves.  But what is stratopausal eddy flux?  Is that like menopausal hot flashes?

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12Z Canadian was not on board for anything more than a weak trough early next week... 12Z ECMWF agrees and then backed way off the second trough in favor of flat ridging.  I suspect this is what will happen.

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015070712!!chart.gif

 

Only 10 days away.  Is that a hurricane?  Could make things interesting for California down the road.

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I was reading the update on the Corner Creek fire. They were throwing most of the resources at the southern line to protect sage grouse habitat. The northern part was burning into a wilderness area. They had to send specially trained hot shot crews to tenderly slow down the fire's advance, because they want to have a light-on-the-land impact. I guess man-made fire breaks are worse than letting it burn to the ground.

Fire is natural. What isn't natural is when some whack job sets a fire in Wenatchee with the intent of having it run like a mofo into a residential area.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Wow, 12z Euro ensembles are even troughier than the op.

 

Nice to see a decent midsummer troughy period. Would be a big departure from the past few years.

 

http://s8.postimg.org/g52xj071h/ecmwf_ens_z500_mslp_namer_11.png

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Looks like PDX and SLE don't hit 90 today. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Wow, 12z Euro ensembles are even troughier than the op.

 

Nice to see a decent midsummer troughy period. Would be a big departure from the past few years.

So your saying enjoy tomorrow and Thursday since the Mid July ice age is coming?

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So your saying enjoy tomorrow and Thursday since the Mid July ice age is coming?

The ECMWF was a huge disappointment in terms of troughing and rain. He is seeing things that aren't even there.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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16 degrees warmer at 8pm compared to 24 hours earlier in Eugene.

 

Summer is back!

86 here today with wall-to-wall sun filtered by a thin layer of smoke. Did I miss fall?

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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86 here today with wall-to-wall sun filtered by a thin layer of smoke. Did I miss fall?

It was 8pm yesterday until about 10am this morning down here. Southerly pushes rock!

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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