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October 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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25 minutes ago, Tom said:

It has been having a tremendous warm bias this entire past summer.  Some posters out in NE mentioned how it consistently showed 100's D5 and beyond that never materialized.  Take it with a grain of salt.

Past 2 summers. I remember it launching us well into the 100s in September 2020 too.

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I had to flip the A/C on yesterday as it was a bit to warm outside with a touch of humidity.  Hit a high of 85F and might still have to turn on the A/C later next week if we get one of those hard cutters to come through.  Meanwhile, I'll be looking forward to the somewhat cooler wx next week near seasonal norms but overnight temps will be warmer than avg. 

I sure like what the 0z Euro is showing through Monday...

1.png

 

Is the dry trend about to reverse course as the new LRC sets up???  Models are def pointing towards a wetter than avg pattern over the next 2 weeks.  An interesting system has been showing up on the model runs in this blocked up pattern (Omega Block).  I'm wondering if these will be the 1st few new days of the LRC come mid next week.  A cut-off ULL is poised to take shape down near the Gulf Coast and slowly migrate due N into the GL's region by next Fri.  Let's see if this becomes the 1st system we track of the new pattern.

Over the next 10 days, a stripe of AN precip for the eastern Sub...

2.png

 

On another note, the west will feel the early onset of Winter...but, the question remains, will one of of the systems that ejects out of the Rockies spin up and deliver 1st flakes for our Sub??

3.png

 

0z GFS showing the 1st weenie run of the cold season... @FAR_Weather @Beltrami Island  Octo-bomb???  There are a few ensemble members at this very LR that show some monster wound up storms during this time frame.  Something to ponder on during this dull period.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_54.png

 

 

 

 

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53 minutes ago, Tom said:

0z GFS showing the 1st weenie run of the cold season... @FAR_Weather @Beltrami Island  Octo-bomb???  There are a few ensemble members at this very LR that show some monster wound up storms during this time frame.  Something to ponder on during this dull period.

Clown range so I doubt it happens, but it wouldn't be unprecedented. See 2018 and 2019 for further information.

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

I had to flip the A/C on yesterday as it was a bit to warm outside with a touch of humidity.  Hit a high of 85F and might still have to turn on the A/C later next week if we get one of those hard cutters to come through.  Meanwhile, I'll be looking forward to the somewhat cooler wx next week near seasonal norms but overnight temps will be warmer than avg. 

I sure like what the 0z Euro is showing through Monday...

1.png

 

Is the dry trend about to reverse course as the new LRC sets up???  Models are def pointing towards a wetter than avg pattern over the next 2 weeks.  An interesting system has been showing up on the model runs in this blocked up pattern (Omega Block).  I'm wondering if these will be the 1st few new days of the LRC come mid next week.  A cut-off ULL is poised to take shape down near the Gulf Coast and slowly migrate due N into the GL's region by next Fri.  Let's see if this becomes the 1st system we track of the new pattern.

Over the next 10 days, a stripe of AN precip for the eastern Sub...

2.png

 

On another note, the west will feel the early onset of Winter...but, the question remains, will one of of the systems that ejects out of the Rockies spin up and deliver 1st flakes for our Sub??

3.png

 

0z GFS showing the 1st weenie run of the cold season... @FAR_Weather @Beltrami Island  Octo-bomb???  There are a few ensemble members at this very LR that show some monster wound up storms during this time frame.  Something to ponder on during this dull period.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_54.png

 

 

 

 

A storm in that time period has been showing up consistently on the long range models but every run has a different take on how the storm evolves and where it goes. This has to be the toughest week for the models as a new pattern sets up. I enjoy watching them try to grasp the new pattern, as I have no clue what will happen.

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NOAA has my area in the above avg precip area for October, but models are bone dry through mid month.

 

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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9 hours ago, someweatherdude said:

This would be a record high temp for KC.   Does anyone know whether the GFS now has an extra warm bias?  It's forecast high temps are running pretty consistently above our local NWS office's forecast highs.    gfs_T2m_us_32.thumb.png.56bfda47befc3d0be496d2f3d76f7073.png  

For our area the GFS has been 5-8 degrees to warm for over a month in the mid to long range.

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8 hours ago, Tom said:

It has been having a tremendous warm bias this entire past summer.  Some posters out in NE mentioned how it consistently showed 100's D5 and beyond that never materialized.  Take it with a grain of salt.

Yeah GFS consistently forecasted 110+ for Lincoln and I think I saw as high as 117-118. Summer max was 103. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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After a dry and less humid week last week, yesterday's rise in DP's was noticeable and it felt warm in the sun when it popped out on occasion.  Temps maxed out at 80F.  Still felt like summer was hangin' on...and yes, the A/C was on yesterday.  While I don't mind having the A/C on, I'm just worried to see how expensive our natural gas bills will be this winter...that's a whole other story.  On a side note, I did also notice a lot more trees changing color and falling off in the wind yesterday.  I'm def getting the fall vibes.

 

 

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The Euro and Gfs are showing a week cut-off system mid week that drifts NW from the gulf region. Interesting system as it may be part of the new pattern and something that later on this Winter could produce significant precip for the Eastern half of the forum.

image.thumb.png.2571265f09610dea369509be6e904331.png

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26 minutes ago, Clinton said:

The Euro and Gfs are showing a week cut-off system mid week that drifts NW from the gulf region. Interesting system as it may be part of the new pattern and something that later on this Winter could produce significant precip for the Eastern half of the forum.

image.thumb.png.2571265f09610dea369509be6e904331.png

Gulf Low’s are always fun to track, esp with a massive banana HP to the N.  Liking the start of this new pattern and the wave train of cutters setting up later next week into mid month.

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Euro is now picking up the behemoth of a storm that GFS has been showing in clown range. It's easy to shrug that off, but the seasons have to change at SOME point. This might just be the thing to do it. Looks good on ensembles, too.

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34 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

My reaction every time I scroll through GFS slides so far this fall (saucy language):  

 

I saw that movie when it came out in theaters! Lol

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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18 hours ago, Tom said:

In other news, across the "pond" in France this is one heckova water spout!

 

 

EF5 spout woah!

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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 loving "summer in October". Perfect 75F without the drastic sun vs shade contrast you see during true summer. Rain and even a TOR warning a bit north this evening reminded me of 2007. Other warm Octobers like '98, '04, '10 also led to fun winters here so let's keep this rolling. took a drive around the parks & lakes region west of me and trees are certainly looking like the season. even a few brilliant ones in marshy spots.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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6 hours ago, jaster220 said:

 loving "summer in October". Perfect 75F without the drastic sun vs shade contrast you see during true summer. Rain and even a TOR warning a bit north this evening reminded me of 2007. Other warm Octobers like '98, '04, '10 also led to fun winters here so let's keep this rolling. took a drive around the parks & lakes region west of me and trees are certainly looking like the season. even a few brilliant ones in marshy spots.

Co-Sign!  Even though yesterday was a bit more cloudy than Sat, I'm enjoying these AN days as daily averages continue on the decline.  As you said, and iirc  both Oct '07 and the 1st half of Nov '07 were warm and then the pendulum flipped a switch.  I'm looking for something similar this year but I'm worried about the cold starting a little earlier in Nov this year which could lead to an early Dec pull back.  Just some early thoughts as we progress through Autumn.  Meanwhile, this coming week showing nothing but 70's and maybe an 80F day this weekend depending on how the storms track tugging up warmer air.  

 

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11 hours ago, jaster220 said:

 loving "summer in October". Perfect 75F without the drastic sun vs shade contrast you see during true summer. Rain and even a TOR warning a bit north this evening reminded me of 2007. Other warm Octobers like '98, '04, '10 also led to fun winters here so let's keep this rolling. took a drive around the parks & lakes region west of me and trees are certainly looking like the season. even a few brilliant ones in marshy spots.

Me too. This type of warm weather in October feels great. Also, why waste cold air now, when its totally useless. Might as well save it when it is cold enough for snow and closer towards the "Holiday Season." I look at this mild weather as an extra month of free Summer. 😉

Tbh, this is strange to get a T.W around this time of the year, especially up here in MI. Wow! I wonder if any damage occurred. In any case, we got soaked last nite, especially here in Macomb.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The dry and warm weather looks to continue in KC until at least mid month. May touch 90 again late this week into Saturday. All those rain chances last week starting on Wednesday and ending on Saturday, all missed KC. Not even close....

The LRC based Sept. forecast had predicted the last 10 days of Sept. to be wetter and much cooler. I really needed that forecast to hit, but, the total opposite happened, warm/hot and very dry was what we ended up with. 

 

Maybe we can get hit a few times here with those storms showing up on the GFS. Also, Clinton mentioned that strange ULL drifting NW into MO. tomorrow, maybe we can score a few storms from that here in KC. Looks to be mainly on the MO side. 

 

 

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9 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

79.5 here in MBY and almost no wind.

Absolutely gorgeous!

No precip this week so it looks like this all falls next week then.

353DF5F9-9E90-41D2-BA17-E0C4E5C85811.jpeg

Interesting seeing them have so much confidence in that Day 10 storm despite ensembles being iffy on how much moisture it'll have.

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Still very possible that we don't get our first sub-32 temp here in the next two weeks. Depends on how that CO Low tracks. We're well past the average first freeze here and I believe the average first hard freeze is coming up.

I haven't even gotten below 40.

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2 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

Interesting seeing them have so much confidence in that Day 10 storm despite ensembles being iffy on how much moisture it'll have.

GFS trying to wrap in some cold air for ya next week, but no consistency with ensembles yet. Hope ya get your first flakes of the season. 

image.thumb.png.87b189cb4ad083db3260272a598950df.png

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5 hours ago, Clinton said:

GFS trying to wrap in some cold air for ya next week, but no consistency with ensembles yet. Hope ya get your first flakes of the season. 

image.thumb.png.87b189cb4ad083db3260272a598950df.png

I probably will, it'd align with the average nicely. It'd be hilarious if I got my first flakes before my first sub-32.

If only this kinda storm would happen in December...

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25 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

What's the latest first freeze for you?

 

October 19, in 1938. 

Since we haven't had frost yet either, the latest first frost is October 10 in 1905. We'll shatter that at least, before likely (or not if you believe Euro) getting our first frost late next week. We haven't gotten below 40 yet either, October 9 of the same year is the latest first for that. Closely followed by October 7, 2013.

Too early to say if we'll set the latest first freeze record, but first frost and sub-40 are certain.

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46 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Does that storm get cut off late next week? Weird track. 12z GFS has it going due north through the western Dakotas and straight N into Canada. No eastern progression at all.

That's what Euro has had since yesterday too.

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1 hour ago, james1976 said:

Does that storm get cut off late next week? Weird track. 12z GFS has it going due north through the western Dakotas and straight N into Canada. No eastern progression at all.

 

39 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

That's what Euro has had since yesterday too.

I wonder if the models are struggling with the pattern change, if not that will be one of the strangest storm tracks I have seen.

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