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October 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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6 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

The guy was chased out of town for what sounds like beating his wife. I always loved and admired Dean; after what I heard he did to his wife I'm shocked that anybody would have hired him. 

Yeah, it was never outright said that that's what he did. But given what his wife said on Facebook, that wouldn't surprise me.

Anyway, that's not something that needs to be discussed here.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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5 hours ago, james1976 said:

Thats a heck of a trough. Turns into a closed off low over the lakes. Kind of in line with @Tom's thought toward late October.  Obviously way out in fantasy but something to take note of.

Immediately replaced next run with huge ridge and warmth.  Fun, but anyone looking at pattern change from the GF(fantasy)S in the long term has not followed that model very long.  

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The storm train over the next week should put a nice dent in the northern plains drought.

qpf_acc.us_nc.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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47 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Immediately replaced next run with huge ridge and warmth.  Fun, but anyone looking at pattern change from the GF(fantasy)S in the long term has not followed that model very long.  

Yeah I know. It will flip flop every run.

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1 hour ago, james1976 said:

@Hawkeyelooks like you're getting hit pretty good. Nice line popping up right over CR.

The northern part of CR got the most, with a few spots over 0.80".  I've picked up 0.18".  It's nice to get some rain again.  Monday still looks like a good soaker around here.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Tracking this slow moving ULL has been interesting over the past few days.  This radar loop from yesterday afternoon to present time pretty much sums up what @james1976was commenting as his area literally was in the sweet spot among others in IL.  This will be an interesting system in future cycles.

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=lotrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=150&interval=15&year=2021&month=10&day=7&hour=15&minute=0

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I picked up a healthy .76" of rain yesterday from on and off showers (some heavy) throughout the day.  Perfect rains since I cut the lawn the day before and laid down some fertilizer.  Might get some more pop up showers/storms today with the ULL nearby and if the sun pokes out it could aid in development.

Alright, the next few systems on deck are inspiring to me.  For one, it's freakin' nice to finally see a change in what was a warm and dry Sept.  Second, instead of having to wait weeks for an active pattern to start, this year's LRC is beginning with several systems to track.  Over the past few days, the models finally latched onto to the early week system next week.  Kudos to the GFS which has been rock steady with this one while the Euro finally latched onto this system.  Last night's track has shifted S/SE. 

First severe wx threat down south near @OKCWX for the start of 2nd severe wx season.

4.gif

 

The Sat system is going to drop a lot of good stratiform rains up by @FAR_Weather @Beltrami Island and the UP posters...

2.png

 

Then, we will focus in on the 1st major trough of the season....more drought alleviating rains coming your way!  Since Aug 31st, there has been a good dent in the drought.  These maps will look better by months end.

Aug 31st...

Drought Monitor for High_Plains

 

Oct 5th...

Drought Monitor for High_Plains

 

0z Euro thru the 15th...again, smack dab where the worst drought conditions are currently being experienced...

3.png

 

Now, here comes the fun part...who's ready for the seasons coldest chill???  The Plains get it first...

1.png

 

 

 

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This post will be my interpretation of the new LRC pattern setting up and it has some really fascinating patterns transpiring across the N.H.  First off, we had major Hurricane Sam that developed in the ATL and then tracked towards Greenland right when a trough came off the shores of eastern Canada, resulting in a Fujiwhara Effect.  IMO, this is a sign the new LRC pattern Snapped into motion.  The placement of the trough S of Greenland is a classic -NAO signal.  Then, we see another trough slide E into the same region S of Greenland...Long Term Long Wave Trough setting up???  Yes, this is a Bigly signal to suggest that it will be an exhibit to the LRC and pump the Greenland Ridge.

1.gif

 

We have already been speaking about the storm train and where they are tracking, digging, energizing, etc...I'd like to focus now across the region from the 30th parallel from near Hawaii and points East towards So Cal/Baja.  The consistent troughiness setting up here is eye candy.  Why?  This will be, IMO, what sets the stage for a -EPO signal later in Winter. 

The current SST anomaly below shows the ribbon of cold waters, from Hawaii to Cali, right where the troughs keep showing up near the 30th parallel...the warm waters hugging Baja and Mexico will be the "fuel for the fire" for the pattern heading into winter.

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

Also, not to mention, but look at the E PAC tropical storm that slams into W Mexico later in the animation above.  Active Sub Tropical Jet???  Sign me up!  In summary, this is all coming together in my view as one hellova pattern when you take into consideration all the variables setting up as the pieces of the puzzle are beginning to show itself. 

Furthermore, as I look out well into the LR, I see the modeling coming into agreement that the MJO looks to be moving into Phases 8/1/2 by months end.  The Euro Weeklies shown below are suggesting THE best scenario if you take into consideration the MJO cycles every 30-60 days (just like the LRC) those are the coldest phases you experience during late Autumn/Winter and early Spring.  I mean, can you ask nature to "tee" it up any better?  Am I dreaming?  Are we about to be "living the dream"???  One can only Dream I guess....that's all I have for now...ciao!

EMON_phase_51m_small.gif

 

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Yet another warm (for October) overnight low the official overnight low at Grand Rapids was just 65 if it don't fall below that before midnight this will be the 2nd warmest low for any October 8 at Grand Rapids. That is after yesterdays official low of 62 was the 3rd warmest low for any October 7th If Grand Rapids reaches 80 on Sunday that would be the 5th warmest high for that date. At this time it is cloudy and 65 here at my house.

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Steady light rain all night. I picked up half an inch.

DMX talking potential significant rainfall sun-mon with system #1 and then the big dog midweek could produce severe weather in Iowa and very strong winds.

Gotta love the active start to this new pattern.

Another thing of note is the past several discussions they have mentioned a cirrus shield likely for Saturday with the strong SW flow pulling in moisture from the Baja area at the 300-500mb level which could keep temps in the 70s instead of mid 80s. I'm interested to see how this pans out tomorrow. 

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This system way overperformed here.  I picked up 1.01".  Some spots in the CR area received 1.50+".

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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3 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Possible record high tomorrow here

5311EB4A-80F1-4EF4-AFDF-D8181F153550.jpeg

Wouldn't be a husker home game if it wasn't at least 90 degrees. Rain chances for the week seem to be fading as well 🙄

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Yet again, my area was blessed by a deluge of what seemed like tropical downpours during the afternoon.  Once the fog cleared, the sun came out and it felt like summer with bubbly cumulus clouds blossoming in the buoyant airmass.  Scattered storms fired up and it poured like crazy around midday.  Local reports showing pockets of .50-1.00" or so and I was on the receiving end of these torrential downpours.  I'd say easily over 1" of rain over the past couple days and the areas across the N burbs got a good dose of rain.

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=lotrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=40&interval=10&year=2021&month=10&day=8&hour=12&minute=0

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Models have been locked into the Monday rain event for eastern Iowa as the low moves up along the front.  However, some models are suddenly trending southeast.  Cedar Rapids is now on the nw edge on the GFS and UK.  The RDPS and 3k NAM are now a miss southeast.  The Euro is the only model holding firm with a farther nw track, throwing good rain up to Des Moines and Waterloo.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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There was some spotty very heavy rain fall yesterday. Here at my house I recorded 1.48" of rain fall and there was some street flooding in the area in a heavy down pour in the afternoon. At GRR a new record rain fall amount of 1.00" was reported that broke the old record of 0.96" in 1994. The first 8 days of October 2021 have been very warm and the mean for October is now at 65.6 and that is a departure of +9.7°. There was a lot of fog earlier but it has now became less foggy here. The overnight low here at my house was once again a warm 61 and at this time it is cloudy and 62.

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

Hopefully before January at least lol

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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KLNK is definitely having some sensor issues. I wouldn’t consider complete overcast all day to be “fair” lol. I’ve noticed similar situations in the past. At least it’s more like 79 instead of 89.

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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