Jump to content

October 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom

Recommended Posts

The line of storms crapped out before reaching Fargo.  That has to be a little disappointing.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Hawkeye said:

The line of storms crapped out before reaching Fargo.  That has to be a little disappointing.

I was at a hockey game the entire time so I didn't really care. Still got a decent bit of rain. Drought areas to my west received the brunt of it which I'm fine with. I'll take my inch and let them have their 4.

I will say, the grass is actually saturated. Only took till October for that to happen!

  • Like 4

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

I was at a hockey game the entire time so I didn't really care. Still got a decent bit of rain. Drought areas to my west received the brunt of it which I'm fine with. I'll take my inch and let them have their 4.

I will say, the grass is actually saturated. Only took till October for that to happen!

That was one wicked looking line that rolled on through your region and into MN...#radarporn

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=sel4rad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=40&interval=15&year=2021&month=10&day=9&hour=17&minute=0

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Tom said:

It may seem like it's been years since the KC/N MO has seen a perfect storm track....models dialing in on quite the compact system for Sun pm into Monday...

1.gif

This is great to see and I believe this will target us several times over the Winter months. Look like the storm may begin tonight during the Chiefs game. Hopefully we don't see a delay do to lighting. Rainfall  looks impressive with some 2 to 4 inch totals.

image.thumb.png.ba5ecec5e22837b82c91469c213d3108.png

 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It has been a very warm start to October this year. After 9 days the mean at Grand Rapids is 65.6 that is a departure of +9.9 and that is the smallest departure from average in the area. At Muskegon the mean is 66.4 and that is a departure of +10.4 and at Holland the mean is 67.5 and that is a departure of +11.7 that mean is more typical of June. To the east at Lansing the mean is 65.8 and that is a departure of +10.8. We will have to see how the rest of the month plays out. The record warmest October mean (whole month) at Grand Rapids is 59.1 at Holland 61.1 at Muskegon 58.5 and at Lansing 58.4.
I recorded 0.06" of rain fall overnight. At this time it is partly cloudy and 68 here with a dew point of 65.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

We’re all preparing for a turbulent evening.   
Air flow is colliding over West Tx., slowly tracking East.  Our Oklahoma neighbors will get into the act too. Heavy rain forecast. 

Currently  seeing wind at 20 mph with frequent gusts to 32mph.  Collision of the air should spin off some tornado warnings later tonight.  
Just hate nighttime tornados.  Seems to have become more the rule than the exception in recent years. 

  • Like 7

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I wasn't even expecting any real rain today, but I picked up 0.15" earlier and a heavier cell just put me over a half inch.  The main system doesn't even arrive til early tomorrow morning.

  • Like 2
  • Rain 2

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Our atmostphere is like old school spring tonight. Craziness. Tornado in Coweta, OK tonight. Will likely be more ans damage through my area in the next few hours. Not going to get a lot of sleep.

I hope your doing alright down there bud...both you and @Andie were on my mind yesterday.  This radar loop appears that your area got hit hard.  Let us know how things are going down there.

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=sel7rad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=75&interval=15&year=2021&month=10&day=10&hour=18&minute=0

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Happy Columbus Day!  Thanks to Christopher Columbus who discovered this land way back in 1492.  As we commemorate this discovery, I'm thankful for Gary Lezak and his discovery of the LRC over 20+ years ago.  You see how I tried to tie in the wx??  🤓 

In any event, today we continue tracking a powerful system that will be cycling through or Sub over the weeks/months to come.  Will the Tornado drought for KC end?  This year's pattern appears to be heading that way so we shall see how this all unfolds.  Meanwhile, what a friggin' powerful system last night that continues today.  I'm intrigued to see how this system formed so quickly out of the AMA region and tracked right over OKC and now it's cutting up towards N IL.  This one has an asterisk on my notepad.

Looks like things are going to get a bit bumpy here late evening and many of us across the MW are in line for severe storms.  Quite the potent ULL and fuel to fire up some big time boomers.  The 2nd in a series of storms is producing a classic comma shape on radar.  This is seriously wx porn if your keeping tabs on how nature is producing such dynamic systems this year.  It gets me excited about what lies ahead in the cold season. 

Speaking of cold, nearly our entire Sub will FINALLY  feel like Autumn by the time this weekend arrives.  First, our Plains/Upper MW members feel it and then once the 4th system rolls on through that'll pound the Upper MW and unleash winters fury over the Rockies (blizzard conditions and feet of snow), the 500mb pattern then shifts around a bit following this storm and opens for a period of NW Flow aloft around the 19th/20th.  I'll post maps below.

Patchy Frost this weekend???

1.png

 

2.png

 

The models had ZERO clue last week but have suddenly trended cooler later next week as a clipper type storm tracks across S Canada right as the PNA pops (+).  This flip is a big clue and an important atmospheric driving force over North America and eventually our Sub.  I'd be worried if the PNA were to stay (-) as it would blow torch our Sub, however, this is heading in the right direction in my opinion. 

3.png

 

As we progress farther down the road, I made a comment last week and suggested the mean 500mb blocking pattern setting up over central/eastern Canada would be an ideal blocking pattern.  In fact, I can see the models trending that way slowly but surely and beginning to show signs of a southern stream storm track to fire up again around the 23rd/24th.  Last nights 00z GEFS trends are hinting exactly what I was referring to....

 

1.gif

 

 

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

After this storm clears the sub, Tuesday night another one will be spinning over ND on Wednesday dragging a cold front through from west to east.  What's cool about this, is that it picks up the remnants of a storm in the Pacific and another storm forms on the south end of the cold front.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_11.png

This storm gets its act together over Texas and lifts NE over many of the same areas getting hit today. We are getting our first look at a few of the LRC hot spots.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16.png

What an exciting week of weather we are having, can't wait to see the Winter version later on!

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

There is a good chance that today will be the warmest day for the rest of 2021 that said.

New records for the warmest minimums were set at Grand Rapids and Muskegon for yesterday October 10th the low at Grand Rapids of 64 yesterday set a new record for the warmest minimum for the date at Muskegon their low of 65 also set a new record. At Holland their low of 67 is the new 2nd warmest minimum for the date 70 in 1949 is the record. At Lansing their low of 64 is the new 3rd place warmest minimum their record is 67 in 1879 and in 2nd place is 65 in 2018.

After new record warmest minimums were set for October 10 the over night lows for today have been even warmer. At Muskegon the overnight low was just 72 If it stays above 63 until midnight today would set a new record. At Holland the overnight low has been 69 (it was in the low 70’s most of the night) it would have to stay above 67 until midnight for a new record there for today. Here at my house and at GRR the overnight low has been 67 It would have to stay above 65 until midnight for a new record minimum to be set here. At this time with clear skies it is 69 here.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Our atmostphere is like old school spring tonight. Craziness. Tornado in Coweta, OK tonight. Will likely be more ans damage through my area in the next few hours. Not going to get a lot of sleep.

Texas received the tail of the line of storms.  DFW got 1/3-1/2 “. Isolated areas a bit more. But generally it was not much to get excited about.   
Oklahoma got the storm and the twister.  A lot more elements and energy to contribute the their night.  
lots of bumping and grinding up there.  
 

Fall isn’t through with us. This was a quick Spring storm for Texas.  

  • Like 1

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I still have strawberries and tomatoes growing and flowering.  Just picked about 12 juicy ones of each this morning and took them to work.  One of my tomato plants has grown with the cucumbers on the vine arch and is about 10ft tall now.  

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Clinton said:

Good stormy morning! So far .80in has fallen and more on the way. Can't wait to see some of the rainfall totals from around the KC area, there is an aerial flood warning around the Lawrence. Looks like @Jayhawker85did well.

Yes! Lawrence was in the heavier alley of the precip as we got 3-5 inches since it started raining around 7pm last night and did not stop until 730 this morning! We are on the perfect side of the deformation side of the low today which makes me EVEN more excited to see this storm cycle back through in the next couple cycles!

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

Yes! Lawrence was in the heavier alley of the precip as we got 3-5 inches since it started raining around 7pm last night and did not stop until 730 this morning! We are on the perfect side of the deformation side of the low today which makes me EVEN more excited to see this storm cycle back through in the next couple cycles!

I'm sure Gary is getting pretty stoked!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I've now received 1.73" of rain.  The latest band had some red in it and really dumped for a bit.  It's possible we are done, or a bit more could pop up later this afternoon as the weakening low passes by.

The Euro was dreadful with its forecast, putting too much emphasis on the defomation zone precip.  Last night's run had 2" of rain falling from Des Moines to Waterloo.  Both places have only received a couple tenths.  The meso models did a better job of showing the heavier rain falling over southeast Iowa into Illinois where the heavier cells tracked.

Today is, by far, the coolest day of the season so far.  It's only in the mid 50s here.

  • Like 5

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I ended up with 2.20" from this system. As @Jayhawker85and others noted, this had an excellent track and was a very wet storm for our area which has rarely been seen in recent winters.

As far as future cycles go I'm concerned mainly with availability of cold air and also strength and track deviations that could occur. Another thing is the next system will quickly draw warmer air into my area if it pans out as modeled. So any snow that falls in future cycles could melt fairly quickly here if that also repeats.

Still...this part of the pattern will be fun to track in future cycles. 🙂

  • Like 2

23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Here’s an update from Jim on his winter forecast for our area. I could definitely like this with more snow thrown in though

1B75F1E6-3521-4BB7-B47A-8A3939717E74.jpeg

February warm?   Not what I’ve read in general. 

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

With temperatures up near 80 and dew points in the upper 60's it is indeed a warm and somewhat humid day for October. The current temperature here at my house is 80 and I have a dew point of 70. The official high for Grand Rapids looks to be 79 so that will be a tie for the 4 warmest reading for the date. The record is 85 in 1928 and in 2nd place is 82 in 1938 a high of 80 happened in 2011 and 2010, 1973 and 1893 a high of 79 was reported in 1962 and 1943. My AC just kicked on so yes it must be warm out as it is set to 77. I will report tomorrow on the official high for today and if we set any new record warm minimums. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

What a warm day today in Detroit. Flew in from NYC and as soon as I got out of the "Metro Airport", this warm, humid airmass hit me in the face. Thb, for a sec, I honestly forgot it is October. Felt great though. Hopefully, this airmass will stay with us , but I see changes coming by the upcoming weekend w (slightly BN) temps. Looking forward to some "Autumn-like temps.

  • Like 3

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...