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October 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Had wind, rain and a good amount of lightning and some thunder here about earlier not really severe but it was one of the better storms of this year. It dropped just 0.24" of rain. At this time it is cloudy here and now it is down to 64. At the airport it is down to 63 and wind gust of 47 MPH was reported there. 

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The rain just keeps coming.  We had a long break this afternoon, with only scattered sprinkles able to pop up, but over the last hour or two another thin band solidified, north-south, right through Cedar Rapids.  Another 0.33" has boosted my 2-day total to 2.06".  Another 0.60" quickly fell just a mile down the road to my east.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Yet another decent shower just boosted my rain total to 2.19".  It appears the rain is finally finished.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Several rounds of heavy rains fell across the metro yesterday dumping healthy rainfall amounts in excess of 1" leading to some street flooding in the city.  It was a good call to cancel Game 4 of the ALDS last night in Chicago.  ORD picked up about .74" of rain yesterday which was the highest total in about 7 weeks.  

This system will be remembered for some unique features that I'll revert back to, none moreso, than the "bowed" signature on radar that swept thru C IL prompting Tornado warnings.  Then you add the defo band into the mix...could we be saying, "here blizzard, blizzard..." in the weeks/months ahead???

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=lotrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=40&interval=10&year=2021&month=10&day=11&hour=15&minute=0

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0z Euro advertising some chilly nights across the Plains/Upper MW this weekend and bleeding east...40's are gonna feel cold after what has been the warmest Oct 1st-11th open in Chicago's history dating back to 1879.

Sat morning...

1.png

 

More notable, is the strong clipper that is showing up early next week... @FAR_Weather, your wish may be granted per the Euro...

2.png

3.png

 

 

 

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GFS going bonkers on Black Hills snow--  52" near Lead,SD-- to be fair- point and click there has 18-32".  Nothing like a good OCT Black Hills special.  Where's Tabitha when you need "her". :O) --- -- "Tabitha" - old troll from years back for those out of the loop. image.thumb.png.d567c26fefdbbe31b2a5f7b8bac191b6.pngsnku_acc.us_nc.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Here at my house I recorded 0.57" of rain fall yesterday and overnight. In the area yesterday was another very warm (for October) day. At Grand Rapids the high of 80 was the 3rd warmest for the date but in a 5 way tie with 2011, 2010, 1993 and 1973. The low of 63 was the 2nd warmest minimum for the date with a tie with 1954 and 1928. At Holland the high of 81 was the 4th warmest for the date and the low of 64 was the 4th warmest. At Muskegon the high of 79 was the 4th warmest and the low of 65 set a new record for the warmest minimum for the date. To the east at Lansing the high of 81 was the 6th warmest and the low of 66 is now the new record warmest minimum for the date. At this time there is a light mist falling and it is 61 here at my house.

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1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said:

GFS going bonkers on Black Hills snow--  52" near Lead,SD-- to be fair- point and click there has 18-32".  Nothing like a good OCT Black Hills special.  Where's Tabitha when you need "her". :O) --- -- "Tabitha" - old troll from years back for those out of the loop. image.thumb.png.d567c26fefdbbe31b2a5f7b8bac191b6.pngsnku_acc.us_nc.png

Those Black Hills...seems like they get one of these storms every spring and fall. 

The ultimate in recent times seems to be 1998. https://www.weather.gov/unr/1998-02-25_03-01    

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1 hour ago, westMJim said:

Here at my house I recorded 0.57" of rain fall yesterday and overnight. In the area yesterday was another very warm (for October) day. At Grand Rapids the high of 80 was the 3rd warmest for the date but in a 5 way tie with 2011, 2010, 1993 and 1973. The low of 63 was the 2nd warmest minimum for the date with a tie with 1954 and 1928. At Holland the high of 81 was the 4th warmest for the date and the low of 64 was the 4th warmest. At Muskegon the high of 79 was the 4th warmest and the low of 65 set a new record for the warmest minimum for the date. To the east at Lansing the high of 81 was the 6th warmest and the low of 66 is now the new record warmest minimum for the date. At this time there is a light mist falling and it is 61 here at my house.

My area got spared as most of the heavy (severe weather) stayed way west. From what I saw, everything was moving due north, thanks to a HP area to my south and east. In any case, this front has weakened considerably, so not even at "Marginal" risk for mby. Maybe a few scattered showers at best. It still remains muggy w above normal temps continuing. Not sure, but I think yesterday here in the Detroit Metro area, a few records were broken. 

Looks like the next severe threat stays away as well, come Thursday. Then comes the cool down! This upcoming weekend will feature superb weather for any outside cleaning. 

 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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@Andie Keep an eye on "Pamela." Looks like the remnants of this Hurricane is eyeing Texas.

@OKwx2k4 This goes for you too! Although, I think you might get spared, but still need to monitor it.

https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/hd30-6.jpg?w=632

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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@Tom A lot of Tornado "Watches and Warnings" yesterday in Illinois. I think Chicago was under a Tornado Watch at some point, but in any case, it looked very active there.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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11 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

Fargo area definitely flirting with it's latest first freeze ever (per FAR_Weather saying latest is 10.19). Gonna be close. 

We could be talking by hours!  I wonder what year that was so we can compare what the following winter ended up being.  

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It's grey and gloomy with a thick overcast...come on sunshine!  These are the kinda days I miss the AZ sun...then again, I do like the diverse wx we have in the MW.  Speaking of AZ, it is snowing again up north in the mountains and Grand Canyon.  Here is the webcam link to Snowbowl ski resort:

https://www.snowbowl.ski/the-mountain/webcams/

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1 hour ago, Niko said:

@Andie Keep an eye on "Pamela." Looks like the remnants of this Hurricane is eyeing Texas.

@OKwx2k4 This goes for you too! Although, I think you might get spared, but still need to monitor it.

https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/hd30-6.jpg?w=632

This has my attention also because for the 2nd time in less than a week KC finds itself in the comma head of an intensifying system if it happens like it's being modeled.  Oct is off to a terrific start.

1634288400-8LBCfObBwIg.png

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2 hours ago, Niko said:

@Andie Keep an eye on "Pamela." Looks like the remnants of this Hurricane is eyeing Texas.

@OKwx2k4 This goes for you too! Although, I think you might get spared, but still need to monitor it.

https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/hd30-6.jpg?w=632

All this moisture should be very interesting once it meets up with the front coming in from the NW.  

Loads of rain, I suspect, from Hill Country to Okla. Clint and I best get our water wings and flippers out.  Could get more than we asked for.  These Pacific storms can be very surprising this late in the year.  
 

Issues on the border will be only be magnified.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Dramatic Vid of Hwy 101 in Cali......Hard to believe I was driving on this hwy couple weeks ago

https://twitter.com/i/status/1447728237635948546

Also, Live vid from the "Space-Station" from 260 miles from above the surface

https://twitter.com/i/status/1447728748971757571

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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2 hours ago, Clinton said:

This has my attention also because for the 2nd time in less than a week KC finds itself in the comma head of an intensifying system if it happens like it's being modeled.  Oct is off to a terrific start.

1634288400-8LBCfObBwIg.png

Absolutely sir! I hope you get inundated, but my only concern is that your specific area might be on the northern fringes of all this torrential rainfall. I hope its not. Anyhow amigo....hope this is the beginning of a great Autumn start to "Storminess" and and a heck of a southern storm track for us.

Your vicinity is definitely looking snowier this Winter. 😉

https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/MicrosoftTeams-image-2021-10-12T124603.148.jpg?w=632

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I just took a peak at my highs for this upcoming weekend and it sure looks very "Fall-like." Highs most likely not getting outta the 50s and do I dare say upper 30s for some, especially in the suburbs.

In the meantime, it continues to feel like Aug' tober, which I do not mind at all for this time of the year. "Extra Free Summer" Month." 😄

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I think Texas will be happy to avoid ice and snow this year Clint, but I think we’ll see some.  Rain is always welcome here. 
You’re more likely to get your wish.   
 

Pam is going to do a lot of harm flooding wise in Hill Country and along our border just in time for the major inundation of humanity from So. America.  It’s frightening down there and resources are very limited. 

The Feds are acting like it’s all natural and ok.  The suffering is self evident and state resources are thin even for a large state.  A hurricane will be very hard on folks there. Pam has a bad path for So Texas. 
 

The saying is true.  Weather/Climate is history. 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Did some grilling earlier on my patio and felt beautiful. Temps were in the upper 60s w a nice breeze.

Btw: Who was around in SEMI on this date today back in 2006, when Detroit officially received  0.2" of snowfall. This was the earliest measurable snow in recorded (Detroit) weather history. How about that! Wow.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Hit 35*F this morning with a decent breeze. First time I've felt legitimately cold stepping outside all season. Last year, that happened in early September. Better very very very very late than never I guess. 56*F.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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We’ll, Pam isn’t exactly the worst hurricane that Texas has seen but it’s making a bee line for my house.  
Lot’s of rain. Some gusty wind. Sounds like a typical Fall storm for us.  
 

it’s windy today and overcast but that’s not Pam.  That’s the front that moved through. 83*. Winds 16-20 mph.  Rain mañana.  

49E602DD-09CA-4A56-ADEE-8A18BFD02BE0.png

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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38 minutes ago, Andie said:

We’ll, Pam isn’t exactly the worst hurricane that Texas has seen but it’s making a bee line for my house.  
Lot’s of rain. Some gusty wind. Sounds like a typical Fall storm for us.  
 

it’s windy today and overcast but that’s not Pam.  That’s the front that moved through. 83*. Winds 16-20 mph.  Rain mañana.  

49E602DD-09CA-4A56-ADEE-8A18BFD02BE0.png

Insane that a Pacific cyclone is expected to remain tropical into North Texas.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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3 hours ago, Niko said:

Did some grilling earlier on my patio and felt beautiful. Temps were in the upper 60s w a nice breeze.

Btw: Who was around in SEMI on this date today back in 2006, when Detroit officially received  0.2" of snowfall. This was the earliest measurable snow in recorded (Detroit) weather history. How about that! Wow.

Not here in SEMI on that date, but Marshall/Albion had around 1" (didn't stay on the ground long). The real jackpot was from Battle Creek and north through Barry county where they had an incredible 8-10"  I thought perhaps I had a copy of the snowfall map saved but couldn't find it. GRR has had a write-up more than once on it. Early in the morning hours of 10/12/06 KBTL was reporting 29F and Heavy Snow and blowing snow. A true Nino autumn event. November 30th there was a big snowstorm coming but it curved west a bit and we had that bad ice storm instead that I crashed my new car in. Then it got mild and snowless at Christmas until February then it turned bitter cold (one of JB's LR wins) and the OHV Valentine's Day bliz was a massive and historic storm.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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3 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

Insane that a Pacific cyclone is expected to remain tropical into North Texas.

It IS crazy considering it’s going over a hilly expanse and quite a distance over dry arid Mexican land.  
It'll be interesting if it has any umph when it arrives. 

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Not here in SEMI on that date, but Marshall/Albion had around 1" (didn't stay on the ground long). The real jackpot was from Battle Creek and north through Barry county where they had an incredible 8-10"  I thought perhaps I had a copy of the snowfall map saved but couldn't find it. GRR has had a write-up more than once on it. Early in the morning hours of 10/12/06 KBTL was reporting 29F and Heavy Snow and blowing snow. A true Nino autumn event. November 30th there was a big snowstorm coming but it curved west a bit and we had that bad ice storm instead that I crashed my new car in. Then it got mild and snowless at Christmas until February then it turned bitter cold (one of JB's LR wins) and the OHV Valentine's Day bliz was a massive and historic storm.

Thanks for the write-up Jaster. I was about to ask you how that Winter ended up, since it snowed so early on.

 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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3 hours ago, Andie said:

It IS crazy considering it’s going over a hilly expanse and quite a distance over dry arid Mexican land.  
It'll be interesting if it has any umph when it arrives. 

IMO, it just adds to the premise that this Autumn nature is churning things up in the atmosphere...what a wild pattern we are seeing for the western 2/3rd's of the CONUS thus far...

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Speaking of wild, while Chicago has endured the warmest start to any October in history, it was primarily carried by very very warm overnight low's.  On top of that, it has been the cloudiest start to any Oct since 1920.  You wonder why I miss the sun?  Oh, ya, it did briefly make a presence just after 5:00pm local time right before sunset.  Low stratus held temps in the low 60's all day.  

 

1.jpg

 

As the cloud deck moved east, the skies have cleared and temps have dropped into the low 50's which should end up being the coldest morning so far of the season for ORD.  It's currently 54F with clear skies...looking forward to seeing the sunshine this morning.

 

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