Grizzcoat Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 First I've seen the "B" word being used this season. 2 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 13, 2021 Author Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 1 minute ago, Grizzcoat said: First I've seen the "B" word being used this season. #winteriscoming 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 13, 2021 Author Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 To add to Grizz's comment above...this storm is delivering quite the dynamics! #thundersnow Quote Current conditions at Douglas, Converse County Airport (KDGW) Lat: 42.79°NLon: 105.38°WElev: 4928ft. Thunderstorm in Vicinity Heavy Snow Freezing Fog and Windy 28°F 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 Unreal amounts of cloud to ground lightning in this system. 10-15 CG's a minutes is impressive. Seriously a dynamic system! 2 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 heaviest rainfall in many months right now at kDSM. Just about ready to go over an inch in the last 50 minutes or so.... 2 1 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 Storms are rolling through. Lots of rumbling and lightning. As noted....lots of dynamics! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 12 hours ago, Niko said: Did some grilling earlier on my patio and felt beautiful. Temps were in the upper 60s w a nice breeze. Btw: Who was around in SEMI on this date today back in 2006, when Detroit officially received 0.2" of snowfall. This was the earliest measurable snow in recorded (Detroit) weather history. How about that! Wow. That was one unusual snow event. Some other snow fall totals for that day Grand Rapids 2.0” Lansing 1.5” here is the NWS weather history write up for that day. First SE Michigan “On October 12, 2006, the earliest measurable snowfall occurred in Detroit, Flint and Saginaw. Detroit recorded 0.2 inches of snow, Flint received 2.3 inches of snow, and Saginaw had 0.3 inches of snow.” And SW Michigan “2006: A record early season snowstorm brings up to eight inches of snow to southwest Lower Michigan. Tree damage and power outages were extensive around Hastings in Barry County as the wet, heavy snow clings to the tree branches, which still had leaves on them.” 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 Watching a line of heavy rain move in from my west, hoping it holds together. Very windy this morning with gust up to 45mph. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 1.37" thus far at KDSM. Earlier week system those in SE and E IA did pretty well, but only .38" at KDSM. Finally got a system to pan out. Most daily rainfall since July 31st- (1.91"). 5 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 Had exactly 1.00" of rainfall as the very impressive line of storms came through early this morning. Lots of wind with it which will continue all day today. Hope this cycles through again in the months ahead. Right at 32.00" for the year, 7 inches above normal for the entire year with 2 1/2 months to go. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 Beautiful wet stretch here in KC. We needed it! approaching 3.5 inches of rain for the week and with last Wednesday's .77 inches from a thunderstorm on LRC Day 1 (OCT. 6th) that is now (3) different storms in the first week of the new LRC. Hopefully this is a good sign for several wet periods during the winter. One more smaller storm looking to hit late tomorrow into Friday. That will be 4 storms to target the nation's midsection in one week. COME ON WINTER! BE SOMEBODY THIS YEAR!!!!!! 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 1.34” of rain here. End of October still looking dry and warm. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 1 hour ago, westMJim said: That was one unusual snow event. Some other snow fall totals for that day Grand Rapids 2.0” Lansing 1.5” here is the NWS weather history write up for that day. First SE Michigan “On October 12, 2006, the earliest measurable snowfall occurred in Detroit, Flint and Saginaw. Detroit recorded 0.2 inches of snow, Flint received 2.3 inches of snow, and Saginaw had 0.3 inches of snow.” And SW Michigan “2006: A record early season snowstorm brings up to eight inches of snow to southwest Lower Michigan. Tree damage and power outages were extensive around Hastings in Barry County as the wet, heavy snow clings to the tree branches, which still had leaves on them.” Craziness! I think that Winter that followed in SEMI was actually quite snowy and cold. Not sure though. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 Nice. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 58 minutes ago, MIKEKC said: Beautiful wet stretch here in KC. We needed it! approaching 3.5 inches of rain for the week and with last Wednesday's .77 inches from a thunderstorm on LRC Day 1 (OCT. 6th) that is now (3) different storms in the first week of the new LRC. Hopefully this is a good sign for several wet periods during the winter. One more smaller storm looking to hit late tomorrow into Friday. That will be 4 storms to target the nation's midsection in one week. COME ON WINTER! BE SOMEBODY THIS YEAR!!!!!! Given how things have started and the storm tomorrow night, ya kinda gotta feel like we are in the right spot this year. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 This from NOAA Discussions: The SW-NE frontal zone will remain in place Thursday night and another strong upper wave coming out of the Four Corners region will spin up low pressure over the Western Ohio Valley, and expected to track very close or through southern Lower Michigan Friday afternoon/evening (see 00z Canadian), and this is supported by a substantial amount of the 12z EURO ensembles. What a track. Can you imagine this was Winter. Major Winterstorm in the works. I am liking the southern storm track so far. 2 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 Pattern looks active through the rest of October with troughs coming through and big rebounding warmth. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 Every system is suddenly delivering for us. My rain total this morning is 0.91". That puts me at 4.13" over the last week, a significant dent in the rebuilding drought. The rest of the month looks dry, but this time we can use it. 4 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 At least I'm done using my AC for the year. 4 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 13, 2021 Author Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 35 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: Every system is suddenly delivering for us. My rain total this morning is 0.91". That puts me at 4.13" over the last week, a significant dent in the rebuilding drought. The rest of the month looks dry, but this time we can use it. I wouldn’t hold your breath on a dry pattern. I’m already seeing signs of a system around the 20th …. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 3 hours ago, Niko said: Craziness! I think that Winter that followed in SEMI was actually quite snowy and cold. Not sure though. The winter of 2006/07 was a mixed bag. Not much snow on the east side but near or just above average on the west side of the state and up north. In SE Michigan the official total snow fall the the winter was 30.3 at Detroit. 41.0 at Flint 29.1" at Saginaw. On the west side of the state Grand Rapids 83.3" Muskegon 86.8" 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 4 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said: 1.34” of rain here. End of October still looking dry and warm. Long range models at the moment don't seem to agree with their forecast. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 What a nice fall day. Temps in the mid 50's with full sunshine. NW winds gusting to 40 MPH has made it feel much cooler. Lows of around 33 tonight will promote some frost. No killing freezes yet. However, Saturday morning could possibly get down in the upper 20's to around 30 if skies clear out. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 1 hour ago, westMJim said: The winter of 2006/07 was a mixed bag. Not much snow on the east side but near or just above average on the west side of the state and up north. In SE Michigan the official total snow fall the the winter was 30.3 at Detroit. 41.0 at Flint 29.1" at Saginaw. On the west side of the state Grand Rapids 83.3" Muskegon 86.8" Thanks for this info. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 There was a confirmed tornado near Crete, ND earlier. The same storm line is moving into Fargo now, albeit with no tornadoes. I'm in Bismarck right now for work purposes. Clearly, the cold side of this system is here. 47°F and constant mist. 5 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 Do y'all remember the super epic November 2014 cold wave that hit almost the entire country? 5 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 I just checked my rain data for the year. This week's 4.13" is the wettest week of the entire year. It's more than every month except two, and it's not far below those two. 4 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 I picked up another inch of rain today bringing my total since Oct 6th to 2.2 inches. 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 Only 1/3” of rain so far. Slow moving Pam is training pretty much west of Ft Worth. More to come overnight. It’s been a very dark all day. Barometric pressure being low has given me a whale of a headache and the air is very heavy. We’re at 66*. 4 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 14, 2021 Report Share Posted October 14, 2021 I will never get tired of those words Quote -Another round of rain Friday afternoon/night Potent shortwave moving through the base of the approaching wrn longwave trough ejects our way later Friday into Friday night. Scattered showers and storms will persist along the frontal boundary Friday before the main wave comes out, mainly south and east of GRR. Then as the shortwave approaches later in the day, look for rain to become more widespread over the bulk of the area. Deformation shield may set up overhead, with widespread rain persisting most of Friday night as well. The axis of heaviest total rainfall looks to mainly impact se Lwr MI, possibly including the JXN/LAN areas, where amounts over an inch are possible. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted October 14, 2021 Report Share Posted October 14, 2021 The line of rain/storms has moved East over us but the rain is surprisingly no worse than a spring series of thunderstorms. The last couple of hurricanes in experience dropped rain by the buckets full. Pam seems to be minding her manners. A fair amount of lightening and thunder. all the drama was expended on the west coast of Mexico. 2 2 2 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted October 14, 2021 Report Share Posted October 14, 2021 Pam is still south but tomorrow it will be moving into and through the DFW area and by the 15th it will be on the No Ark/ So Mo line. No doubt plenty of rain still in this Low. Enjoy the last of Pam guys. 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 14, 2021 Report Share Posted October 14, 2021 Video of the tornado near Crete. 3 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 14, 2021 Report Share Posted October 14, 2021 14 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said: 1.34” of rain here. End of October still looking dry and warm. Yeah, that's an... Odd outlook. It looks like they looked at GFS and based it solely on that. Euro actually has the high plains being pretty chilly. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 14, 2021 Author Report Share Posted October 14, 2021 The last hoorah in this unbelievable active SW Flow pattern is going to produce system #5 in this LONG series of storms. Actually, if you count the remnants of Pamela it'll be "6" systems that we will have tracked. The tail end of this long lasting western CONUS trough has a piece of energy currently tracking through the Rockies and will form a SLP in where I believe one of this years Hot Spots is showing up....the TX Pan Handle....another intensifying Lower Lakes Cutter in the works???? My goodness, this has tremendous potential for the S MW/OHV this cold season.... 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 14, 2021 Author Report Share Posted October 14, 2021 The central/northern Sub's 1st legit chance of the season for widespread Frost/Freeze's showing up later next week around the 21st. Models are trending bolder and colder as Blocking is delivering. Bring it. Edit: Forgot to post this...1st run of the season showing snow across the MW ! 4 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 14, 2021 Report Share Posted October 14, 2021 1 hour ago, Tom said: The last hoorah in this unbelievable active SW Flow pattern is going to produce system #5 in this LONG series of storms. Actually, if you count the remnants of Pamela it'll be "6" systems that we will have tracked. The tail end of this long lasting western CONUS trough has a piece of energy currently tracking through the Rockies and will form a SLP in where I believe one of this years Hot Spots is showing up....the TX Pan Handle....another intensifying Lower Lakes Cutter in the works???? My goodness, this has tremendous potential for the S MW/OHV this cold season.... The last few days the EC and GEFS have been showing an active cold stretch beginning around the 20th, including a large Tex/Pan Handle storm around the 25th. It looks quite possible that we'll have more storms in the pattern before October ends than we had last year in entire first cycle of the LRC. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 14, 2021 Author Report Share Posted October 14, 2021 31 minutes ago, Clinton said: The last few days the EC and GEFS have been showing an active cold stretch beginning around the 20th, including a large Tex/Pan Handle storm around the 25th. It looks quite possible that we'll have more storms in the pattern before October ends than we had last year in entire first cycle of the LRC. #amazeballs…I guess it ain’t ova till nature says so… 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 14, 2021 Report Share Posted October 14, 2021 The GFS is rather bullish on rainfall amounts for mby and the lower lakes compared to other models. I like the forecasted track of this storm to produce later on. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted October 14, 2021 Report Share Posted October 14, 2021 Pam turned out to be a nice rain maker. Got 1” but a disappointment. Nothing to worry about. Some areas received 2-4” of rain while Ft. Worth only received .25-.50”. That’s fine. We’ll take it. Temp highs finally in the 70’s. Lows in the 40’s. Fall is finally here! 6 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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