October 2021 Observations and Discussion

[CentralNebWeather]

Looks like the temp has bottomed out at 32 or 33 degrees depending on the weather app that I check. I think I have 6 of them .  As the sun starts to come up, I see some frost on the rooftops and some on the top of cars.  Obviously not a killing frost or freeze.  Might get in the upper 20's range Saturday morning.  Had to put on the jacket this morning.  It was awesome.

[westMJim]

Fun facts. It is now October 14th and so far this fall season at Grand Rapids the coldest it has been is 47. This is the latest it has gone without reaching 46, 45 and 44 (October 8, 2016) 43, 42 (October 11, 1931) and 41 (October 13, 1934) the next milestone would be 40 the latest for that is October 24th 1914.The latest first 39 low is October 24th 2017. The average 1st 32 low is October 13th the latest is November 14th 1918. and for the latest hard freeze (28) is November 29th 1948.

 

[Northland09]

Still no hard freeze in our area yet. To be honest, I'm kind of liking it. Haven't had time to pull what I need to out of my garden before it hits. I'm hoping I can get around to that early next week before it does! I can't believe it's already the middle of October and we're still as warm as we are. We are taking full advantage of it with our business, but we have to keep reminding ourselves that it all could come to a screaming halt anytime (which I have a feeling it will hit us quick and hard when it does). As long as we can finish up just a couple more landscape jobs and I can find the time to get things in order around the house before it hits, life will be peachy. On a side note, I'm kind of bummed because I haven't seen my wooly caterpillar yet this year  It is the one sign of nature that has never proved me wrong yet for winters, even as much as I would like to disagree with them on some winters. Hoping I find one in the garden or my flower beds like I typically do when I clean them up for the year. Otherwise it will mark the first time in about 7 years I haven't come across one, which will leave me guessing what this winter may hold according to the wooly's!

[Minny_Weather]

22 minutes ago, Northland09 said:

On a side note, I'm kind of bummed because I haven't seen my wooly caterpillar yet this year

I saw one this year! Only one though. I want the bees gone at this point lol

[Tom]

1 minute ago, FAR_Weather said:

I saw one this year! Only one though. I want the bees gone at this point lol

The bee's are unreal this year...like everywhere...I have a nest in front of my house.  I'm letting them "be"...pun intended, so they can build their nest.  Let nature run its course.  They'll be gone by the time the 1st freeze hits hopefully later this month.

[Clinton]

11 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

I saw one this year! Only one though. I want the bees gone at this point lol

 

7 minutes ago, Tom said:

The bee's are unreal this year...like everywhere...I have a nest in front of my house.  I'm letting them "be"...pun intended, so they can build their nest.  Let nature run its course.  They'll be gone by the time the 1st freeze hits hopefully later this month.

Spiders are the problem down here.  I have never seen this many!

[Northland09]

1 minute ago, Clinton said:

 

Spiders are the problem down here.  I have never seen this many!

Both the spiders and bees have been HORRIBLE this year! I think they are making up for the lack of mosquitos that weren't around due to the drought (which I thoroughly enjoyed!) The bees have been slowing down around here, haven't seen much of them in the last two weeks, but the spiders...I swear, they're falling out of the sky! 

[Jayhawker85]

2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

 

Spiders are the problem down here.  I have never seen this many!

OMG yes!! i moved at the end of August into a new house and i have never seen so many spiders inside and outside my house EVER! its like i moved to a spider resort lol

[mlgamer]

I've picked up 3.05" of rain since Oct 10. The new weather pattern seems to be off to a roaring start. I've already been thinking ahead to severe weather season. It's been pretty quiet here for a number of years...maybe that's about to change this year at least in this part of the pattern.

[Minny_Weather]

1 hour ago, Northland09 said:

Both the spiders and bees have been HORRIBLE this year! I think they are making up for the lack of mosquitos that weren't around due to the drought (which I thoroughly enjoyed!) The bees have been slowing down around here, haven't seen much of them in the last two weeks, but the spiders...I swear, they're falling out of the sky! 

The bees are still horrendous here. Thankfully looks like we only have about a week left of them.

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, Jayhawker85 said:

OMG yes!! i moved at the end of August into a new house and i have never seen so many spiders inside and outside my house EVER! its like i moved to a spider resort lol

Me 3! Constant spiders at my new apartment home. Blamed it on the place being vacant for 6 weeks but sounds like it's very widespread, lol. Gimme spiders over bees any day tho!

[CentralNebWeather]

Clouds have rolled in and the temp is stuck in the mid 40's with a north wind.  I'm inside my classroom, but it looks like a raw day outside as I gaze out of my north windows.

[Niko]

Ecoshield is what I have signed up for and takes care of everything. I had an issue w spiderwebs a lot. All gone now. I do see from time to time a spider or 2, but its nature, what can you do. Ya cannot eliminate them all!

[jaster220]

8 hours ago, Tom said:

The last hoorah in this unbelievable active SW Flow pattern is going to produce system #5 in this LONG series of storms.  Actually, if you count the remnants of Pamela it'll be "6" systems that we will have tracked.  The tail end of this long lasting western CONUS trough has a piece of energy currently tracking through the Rockies and will form a SLP in where I believe one of this years Hot Spots is showing up....the TX Pan Handle....another intensifying Lower Lakes Cutter in the works????  My goodness, this has tremendous potential for the S MW/OHV this cold season....

 

 

 

 

Takes the 2014 PV bliz track. 2nd significant SLP coming thru the "slot". Gotta like that

[james1976]

12z GFS has turned colder mid-long range. Develops a Midwest system late next week with a lot of colder air behind it. First freezes for a lot of us if this pans out.

Wonder what the Euro will show

[OmahaSnowFan]

12Z Euro seems to match up with the CPC pretty darn good for the 20-26th. Euro only goes out to 24th at this point, but you see a lot of red.

 

[OmahaSnowFan]

12Z GFS shows after the next couple of days of BN temps, it warms right back above normal. There is that shot of colder weather 21st-25th with potentially a nice system, then it's right back to way above normal to end the month. Once we're in November you can hardly call that a fast start to fall that's for sure.

 

[tStacsh]

Probably continue the last few falls of warm Novembers here

[Niko]

Nice line of strong storms moving in shortly. They are capable of producing wind gusts to 50mph and hvy downpours. It looks like more of a hit n miss, but anyone who does get in on some action, could receive some doozy amounts of rainfall. Others who don't, maybe 0.25" or slightly more than that.

 

[Niko]

9 hours ago, Andie said:

Pam turned out to be a nice rain maker. Got 1” but a disappointment. Nothing to worry about.    
Some areas received 2-4” of rain while Ft. Worth only received .25-.50”.  
That’s fine. We’ll take it.  
Temp highs finally in the 70’s. Lows in the 40’s. Fall is finally here!  

Congrats. Enjoy the Autumn feeling now after a nice rainstorm.

Btw: I could only imagine the mudslides that occurred in the mountains of Mexico. That must have been horrific.

[Niko]

@Clinton did Pamela wet your neck of the woods at all or was it a miss.

 

 

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, Niko said:

@Clinton did Pamela wet your neck of the woods at all or was it a miss.

 

 

It was a miss.  There is a chance of rain tonight as a weak storm tries to pull some moisture back in.

[jaster220]

Off topic, but where else to put, right?

This is Storm Stories combined with The History Channel, combined with Unsolved Mysteries. This marries several topics I've always been drawn to. I had no idea GRR created this last summer during the C-19 lock-down. It may be the best thing to ever come out of that office, at least imho. If you're not familiar with this unsolved history/mystery (to my knowledge they have never found the wreckage nor one single soul that was tragically lost) it has only come onto my own radar screen (see what I did there?) in the past decade or so and I've basically been a native Michigander forever, lol. Anyways, don't miss clicking on the green dots (see map) for eye-witness accounts. 1950 seems like ancient history, so I didn't think there was that much air traffic back then. It just surprised me after reading this.

https://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapJournal/index.html?appid=f2ac6d3534244103a166e01473d9a1e3

[jaster220]

On 10/13/2021 at 9:44 AM, Niko said:

This from NOAA Discussions:

The SW-NE frontal zone will remain in place Thursday night and
another strong upper wave coming out of the Four Corners
region will spin up low pressure over the Western Ohio Valley, and
expected to track very close or through southern Lower Michigan
Friday afternoon/evening (see 00z Canadian), and this is supported
by a substantial amount of the 12z EURO ensembles.

 

What a track. Can you imagine this was Winter.  Major Winterstorm in the works. I am liking the southern storm track so far.

This won't be the beast of 9-22, but a second autumn storm putting mby in the sweet spot (in under a month). Gosh I hope this happens when there's actually a cold regime in town, lol.

[Tom]

5 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Off topic, but where else to put, right?

This is Storm Stories combined with The History Channel, combined with Unsolved Mysteries. This marries several topics I've always been drawn to. I had no idea GRR created this last summer during the C-19 lock-down. It may be the best thing to ever come out of that office, at least imho. If you're not familiar with this unsolved history/mystery (to my knowledge they have never found the wreckage nor one single soul that was tragically lost) it has only come onto my own radar screen (see what I did there?) in the past decade or so and I've basically been a native Michigander forever, lol. Anyways, don't miss clicking on the green dots (see map) for eye-witness accounts. 1950 seems like ancient history, so I didn't think there was that much air traffic back then. It just surprised me after reading this.

https://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapJournal/index.html?appid=f2ac6d3534244103a166e01473d9a1e3

Thanks for sharing this Jaster.  In fact, I watched this episode on the History Channel about this flight and was very intrigued by the mystery of the disappearance.  There are so many incidents as such that happen around the world and to have it occur close to our back yard is interesting.  Your mind tends to wonder what the heck happened?  How could you not find any wreckage if it did crash?  Its crazy to think if this plane entered some portal or something to that nature.  This eye witness account from a retired Navy commander may be a clue to that idea: 

Quote

A retired Navy commander sees the lights of an airplane heading southwest out over the Lake. He then sees a brilliant flash of lightning then a red and white flash where the plane had been. He estimates that this occurred 15 to 20 miles offshore.

 

[Tom]

Last night's model runs were fascinating for many reasons, one of which, shows a "bowling ball" system coming out of the CO Rockies into the Plains/MW later next week and could possibly phase with a trough heading due S out of Canada (thanks to the West-Based Greenland Block)...Fujiwhara in the works???  One thing is for certain, the Blocking setting up this season is eye candy.  What happened to the warmth to finish off October???  It's starting to dwindle away...

0z GFS op run from last night, along with the Euro, both show a strong trough entering N Cali/OR area and track literally due E bc of the immense blocking up top.  It's just a hunch, but starting next week and for the following 1-2 weeks (or longer) this long period may be referred to as the "Bowling Ball Exhibit" for the new developing LRC.  We have got ourselves quite a beautiful pattern folks.

 

The Euro is farther west with the colder temps compared to the GFS for next week...needless to say, the blocking developing and locking next week "over the top" is going to LOCK.  My, what a dream pattern setting up and this will likely lead to our 1st flakes of the season for those lucky ones.  @Northland09, your hunch about an abrupt snap to a colder pattern is looking like a good possibility.  Hope you get to see those woollies in your garden soon to confirm the good ol' folklore!

0z Euro...

 

0z GEFS the last 6 runs....clearly, blocking and pattern recognition are coming into fruition...

[Tom]

The next major storm on the calendar IMO is coming due around the 25th that'll head out of the 4 corners region into the LRC's "SLOT" across the TX PanHandle....get'r ready folks, a prime time pattern is setting up shop for a lot of our central CONUS members.  I'm seeing multiple systems to close out Oct to hit this region when all sudden done for this month.  What a way to finish off a month that started extremely active and will prob in all likelihood FINISH active. 

 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Went out this morning to go to school.  My son's car sits outside.  Noticed quite a bit of frost on the top of his car.  He windshield was frozen over.  We had a rain shower come through after 7:30 PM last night.  The temp has only dropped to 35 from what I can tell.  Very interesting.

[CentralNebWeather]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

Last night's model runs were fascinating for many reasons, one of which, shows a "bowling ball" system coming out of the CO Rockies into the Plains/MW later next week and could possibly phase with a trough heading due S out of Canada (thanks to the West-Based Greenland Block)...Fujiwhara in the works???  One thing is for certain, the Blocking setting up this season is eye candy.  What happened to the warmth to finish off October???  It's starting to dwindle away...

0z GFS op run from last night, along with the Euro, both show a strong trough entering N Cali/OR area and track literally due E bc of the immense blocking up top.  It's just a hunch, but starting next week and for the following 1-2 weeks (or longer) this long period may be referred to as the "Bowling Ball Exhibit" for the new developing LRC.  We have got ourselves quite a beautiful pattern folks.

 

The Euro is farther west with the colder temps compared to the GFS for next week...needless to say, the blocking developing and locking next week "over the top" is going to LOCK.  My, what a dream pattern setting up and this will likely lead to our 1st flakes of the season for those lucky ones.  @Northland09, your hunch about an abrupt snap to a colder pattern is looking like a good possibility.  Hope you get to see those woollies in your garden soon to confirm the good ol' folklore!

0z Euro...

 

0z GEFS the last 6 runs....clearly, blocking and pattern recognition are coming into fruition...

Do I see flakes over my head here?

[MIKEKC]

That latest 06z GFS is quite warm here in KC to finish October. Some really warm weather at times...

 

 

[westMJim]

One of the issues I have with CoCoRahs is that the rain fall reports are mostly due in at 7AM (in the fall and winter I am many times late as I do not get up all the time before 8 or even 9 AM) while the official end of the day reports are taken at 12 midnight. And of course it is hard to match the two up. My report for today is 0.12"  At this time it is clear and 52 here at my house. So far this month all 14 days have been much warmer than average and at Grand Rapids the last 19 days in a row have been above average. And in that time there have been 15 days over 70 with one day reaching 80. The have been 8 days with lows of 60 or better and the coldest it has been this fall season so far is just 47.

[westMJim]

57 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Went out this morning to go to school.  My son's car sits outside.  Noticed quite a bit of frost on the top of his car.  He windshield was frozen over.  We had a rain shower come through after 7:30 PM last night.  The temp has only dropped to 35 from what I can tell.  Very interesting.

That is very common with clear skies. While the air temperature is in the mid 30's the top of the car and windshield can get colder and thus the ice and frost and there could have been frost on the roofs as well.

[Niko]

Quite of bit of moisture coming towards SMI. Temps are in the cool upper 50s. Looks like rain will be the deal for the remainder of the day.

[Niko]

 

@OKwx2k4How did you do w Pamela's moisture bud!

[tStacsh]

12 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Off topic, but where else to put, right?

This is Storm Stories combined with The History Channel, combined with Unsolved Mysteries. This marries several topics I've always been drawn to. I had no idea GRR created this last summer during the C-19 lock-down. It may be the best thing to ever come out of that office, at least imho. If you're not familiar with this unsolved history/mystery (to my knowledge they have never found the wreckage nor one single soul that was tragically lost) it has only come onto my own radar screen (see what I did there?) in the past decade or so and I've basically been a native Michigander forever, lol. Anyways, don't miss clicking on the green dots (see map) for eye-witness accounts. 1950 seems like ancient history, so I didn't think there was that much air traffic back then. It just surprised me after reading this.

https://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapJournal/index.html?appid=f2ac6d3534244103a166e01473d9a1e3

The simulated radar in the story is crazy.  I've never seen a squall line like that drop straight south.  

[Clinton]

Cool cloudy day,  I may have some scattered frost tonight as the low could reach 36.

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, Niko said:

Quite of bit of moisture coming towards SMI. Temps are in the cool upper 50s. Looks like rain will be the deal for the remainder of the day.

Mark this day on your calendar, it might be a snow maker for ya in Dec!

[Minny_Weather]

KFAR is actually at approximately 133% of normal precip since September 1. What a change. Still at about 70% on the year, which is way better than the nearly 50% it was at the peak of the drought. Rivers are flowing again!

[OmahaSnowFan]

I would have to say today is the first day it truly felt like a fall day. We've had some mornings that were just as chilly as this morning (40 degrees), but today it's struggled to make it to 60 and there's been a chilly NW breeze all day. A few leaves are finally starting to fall as well.

12Z Euro with exactly 0.00" of precip for eastern Nebraska the next 10 days and highs 20-25 degrees above normal again by the end of the run.

12Z GFS is a little more generous with about 1/4-1/2" of precip next 16 days with most days above average through the end of the month.