October 2021 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

(YES I still watch SWMI even tho I live in SEMI, lol)

1st time I've seen the 6+ shading on the lake graphic. Slow progress into autumn.

[Niko]

There was a "Tornado" that was spotted yesterday here in SEMI (Locale was in St. Clair County).  It was an EF-0 Tornado w peak winds of 70mph and lasted only a couple of minutes. It covered 0.5 mile path. No fatalities or injuries were reported. Had no idea about this. Friend of mine just told me!

[Niko]

Sure did feel like Autumn today w temps remaining in the 50s w on and off rainshowers. More steady and heavier rain arrives tanite b4 finally ending tomorrow morning. Lows will drop into the chilly (but normal for this time of the year) 40s.

[snowstorm83]

This has been a fake a** fall, but it could be worse. Dews in Memphis have been in the low 70s all day. Although there are getting some severe weather moving through. But that's not uncommon, even in the middle of winter lol. 

[Northland09]

15 hours ago, Tom said:

Last night's model runs were fascinating for many reasons, one of which, shows a "bowling ball" system coming out of the CO Rockies into the Plains/MW later next week and could possibly phase with a trough heading due S out of Canada (thanks to the West-Based Greenland Block)...Fujiwhara in the works???  One thing is for certain, the Blocking setting up this season is eye candy.  What happened to the warmth to finish off October???  It's starting to dwindle away...

0z GFS op run from last night, along with the Euro, both show a strong trough entering N Cali/OR area and track literally due E bc of the immense blocking up top.  It's just a hunch, but starting next week and for the following 1-2 weeks (or longer) this long period may be referred to as the "Bowling Ball Exhibit" for the new developing LRC.  We have got ourselves quite a beautiful pattern folks.

 

The Euro is farther west with the colder temps compared to the GFS for next week...needless to say, the blocking developing and locking next week "over the top" is going to LOCK.  My, what a dream pattern setting up and this will likely lead to our 1st flakes of the season for those lucky ones.  @Northland09, your hunch about an abrupt snap to a colder pattern is looking like a good possibility.  Hope you get to see those woollies in your garden soon to confirm the good ol' folklore!

0z Euro...

 

0z GEFS the last 6 runs....clearly, blocking and pattern recognition are coming into fruition...

I'm getting nervous that I'm cutting myself short with the time I have to get things done around the house! If I find my wooly this week in the garden, I'm sharing my findings!

[james1976]

I'm at my girlfriend's up in St Paul. Currently cloudy, breezy and only 46! Out on the patio with a cold one with pork chops on the Weber. Happy Friday! I know it's only Oct 15 but it feels like Winter is knocking on the door up here.

[jaster220]

IWX

Quote

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 340 PM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021

Surface low already moving into NW Ohio with initial batch of
showers and storms accompanying it. Lagging cold front south of the
low was well depicted by fine line of showers and isolated storms
from Portland to Van Wert. Any severe threat will exist with this
line as well any storms ahead of it where temps remain in the
lower to middle 70s, with more stable 60 degree temps right behind
the line (Van Wert 64 vs Lima 74). Thus far storms have behaved
with window of opportunity likely done by 21 or 22Z with focus
then shifting to the impacts of second, stronger front and
arrival of the main upper level trough that will be deepening and
become negatively tilted over the area tonight. The increase in
forcing from the associated 120+kt jet streak is already apparent
with showers slowly trying to expand both in our NW areas as well
as back into IL. Expecting a fast uptick in precip coverage
heading into the 00-03Z period, possibly faster than current
depicted in the forecast. Concerns for heavy rain will be limited
by lower, but still sufficient PWATs around 1.25 inches or so and
progressive nature of the trough. As a result amounts should
generally be under a quarter inch with a few exceptions towards a
half inch possible.

Saturday will be rather chilly compared to recent weeks with highs
only in the 50s and a stiff NW wind, especially during the afternoon
as shot of colder air passes over the Great Lakes. This cold pool
may allow for the development of a few showers during the afternoon
hours across NE parts of the forecast area, warranting holding
onto slgt chc pops in that area.

Then at 7:20 their Aviation Update called for S. Bend staying dry, lol. Radar shows them getting slammed attm. hafta love dynamic systems

[jaster220]

Stationary front up thru CLE

Just ideal for SMI

[Andie]

On 10/14/2021 at 4:30 PM, Niko said:

Congrats. Enjoy the Autumn feeling now after a nice rainstorm.

Btw: I could only imagine the mudslides that occurred in the mountains of Mexico. That must have been horrific.

This cool drier air is a joy!    I catch myself walking out onto the patio and just standing there in a sun you can enjoy!   

[Niko]

19 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Stationary front up thru CLE

Just ideal for SMI

 

Cannot get any better than this. I sure hope we have this beauty in the Winter months ahead because if we do, then, it will get very interesting around SMI.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Added to the frost advisory for eastern Nebraska tonight. Might finally be time to pull in my Hibiscus tree, but only for tonight and tomorrow night as it warms right back up again 

[Tom]

3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Stationary front up thru CLE

Just ideal for SMI

 

The amount of cutters we have seen just through the middle part of Oct is great to see....add to the fact that nearly every system has been energizing and deepening while tracking through our region.  At face value, early in the game, the central CONUS is yet again in the prime spot for active wx.  The big question remains, if the cold air will be there for the Winter...something tells me your move into SE MI will have been timely.  Check out this surface map below...eye candy storm track... @Andie @OKwx2k4 will be experiencing the "Blue Norther" in this type of pattern in about a month...

 

[Tom]

3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Stationary front up thru CLE

Just ideal for SMI

 

The amount of cutters we have seen just through the middle part of Oct is great to see....add to the fact that nearly every system has been energizing and deepening while tracking through our region.  At face value, early in the game, the central CONUS is yet again in the prime spot for active wx.  The big question remains, if the cold air will be there for the Winter...something tells me your move into SE MI will have been timely.  Check out this surface map below...eye candy storm track... @Andie @OKwx2k4 will be experiencing the "Blue Norther" in this type of pattern in about a month...

 

[Tom]

This has been the warmest start to any Oct 1-15th period, in fact, it's been record setting.  Extremely warm overnight lows coupled with cloudy skies that helped put a "blanket" on temps did the trick.

 

 

The GL's region holds the trophy...now, I'm going to remember this map come Dec to see how it ends up correlating to warm Octobers during double dip La Nina's.  The bonus has been the wetter than normal pattern and obviously extended summer that extended the growing season.  Stock up!

 

[CentralNebWeather]

The lowest temp I can find for me this morning is 29. Other apps show 30. A slight wind has pushed wind chills into the 20’s. Will have to bundle up as I’m going to mow this morning. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

8 hours ago, Tom said:

This has been the warmest start to any Oct 1-15th period, in fact, it's been record setting.  Extremely warm overnight lows coupled with cloudy skies that helped put a "blanket" on temps did the trick.

 

 

The GL's region holds the trophy...now, I'm going to remember this map come Dec to see how it ends up correlating to warm Octobers during double dip La Nina's.  The bonus has been the wetter than normal pattern and obviously extended summer that extended the growing season.  Stock up!

 

Looks like they've been quite warm.

[Clinton]

I had a low of 41 this morning (coolest of the season).  Great weather in the forecast this weekend.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Dropped to 35.2 IMBY this morning. Wife broke down bc the kids were cold and turned on the heat for the first time this season to warm it back up to 68 inside.

[Niko]

Ma Nature definitely brought reality here today imby. Autumn is finally in the air. Temps have not budge at all from the mid to upper 50s and lows are heading down to near 40F or so. I would not be surprised to see some upper 30s tanite in some spots (especially in the suburbs) and especially tomorrow nite. Its been a mostly cloudy day w occasional sunshine from time to time, along w breezy conditions.

[Anti Marine Layer]

3 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Dropped to 35.2 IMBY this morning. Wife broke down bc the kids were cold and turned on the heat for the first time this season to warm it back up to 68 inside.

Hopefully the first snow of the season arrives soon down there.

[Clinton]

After a bad day of watching my Tigers get smashed I decided to enjoy some beautiful October weather. To Mizzou, Iowa, and Nebraska here's to a better Saturday. 

[Tom]

11 minutes ago, Clinton said:

After a bad day of watching my Tigers get smashed I decided to enjoy some beautiful October weather. To Mizzou, Iowa, and Nebraska here's to a better Saturday. 

Enjoy Clinton!  You earned these autumn days after a hot and humid summer.  Love the country scenery…#bonfireseason

[Andie]

Any opinions on winter?   
I heard a report that Texas gas supply may be problematic this winter.   Add the worry over electric and I’m like what the hell…..?

[snowstorm83]

3 hours ago, Andie said:

Any opinions on winter?   
I heard a report that Texas gas supply may be problematic this winter.   Add the worry over electric and I’m like what the hell…..?

I highly dought TX as a whole will see any weather conditions comparable this winter to what happened last year. I don't know the exact stats, but that's about a once in 25 year event most likely. Also, there's absolutely no excuse for what happened in Texas in Feb. If you don't have the capacity to keep citizens warm when it's cold, then you're failing. Many other places in the South which record cold temperatures did not completely fall apart. Of course everything was still shut down for a week, but it's nothing like what went down in Texas. 

[Andie]

I hope you’re right.   
I can’t say they’ve solve this massive problem and now they’re worried about natural gas supply. Yeah, Texas.  We’re sitting on a state filled with oil and natural gas.  If we don’t have aquifers under our feet we have oil and gas!   
Part of the problem is the exodus into the state. People running from failing states.  But we’re not everyone’s solution.  Construction and congestion are off the hook here and I’m concerned they can’t meet demand if we have a strong cold front or freezing rain.  I have a gas fireplace if we have an electric failure.  
But no gas?  We freeze again.  

[westMJim]

The overnight low here at my house was 39.9 and of course that is the coldest low so far this fall season. The official overnight low so far at GRR is 44. This latest date for that 44 low the old record was on October 8th 2016 and while not official the low here at my house of 39.9 (40) is the 2nd latest for that to happen but will update that when GRR officially reaches 40. At this time it is clear here and 41.

[Hawkeye]

It appears we have a few delightful days coming up early to midweek... low 70s and sunny.

[Hawkeye]

The upcoming pattern is great for the drought-stricken west.  Models show a firehose aimed at the central/nw coast.

[Andie]

GORGEOUS DAY! 

69 clear and humidity at 38%.  
I’ll have some more please!?

[OmahaSnowFan]

Definitely not the fast start to fall predicted.

How about 20-30 degrees ABOVE normal to start November?

[OmahaSnowFan]

Both GFS and Euro don’t get eastern Nebraska below 40 through their entire run.

Anyone have stats on latest freeze date for Omaha/Lincoln?

 

[Tom]

I’ve had to deal with a system hard drive issue on my computer and have been out of pocket.  Until it is fixed, I won’t be posting maps, etc…it stinks, but that’s what I have to deal with until it’s resolved.  Happy Monday! 
 

 

[Clinton]

What a stormy way to close out October, the GFS has 5 storms in the final two weeks of the month. We have been missing cold air in the pattern and that looks to change on Halloween.  Is this a trick or a treat that the models are showing in the long range?  The Euro Control shows this for temps to open up November.

While the GFS brings Iowa and Minnesota their first snowfall of the season.

At the very least the blocked up pattern looks to provide some very interesting weather.

[Tom]

3 minutes ago, Clinton said:

What a stormy way to close out October, the GFS has 5 storms in the final two weeks of the month. We have been missing cold air in the pattern and that looks to change on Halloween.  Is this a trick or a treat that the models are showing in the long range?  The Euro Control shows this for temps to open up November.

While the GFS brings Iowa and Minnesota their first snowfall of the season.

At the very least the blocked up pattern looks to provide some very interesting weather.

Boom!  Love seeing the models heading in this direction.  You gotta dig the blocking setting up shop…

[Clinton]

9 minutes ago, Tom said:

Boom!  Love seeing the models heading in this direction.  You gotta dig the blocking setting up shop…

GEFS and EPS seem to agree on precip amounts and location to close out October.

[westMJim]

With clear skies the overnight low so far here has been 40. The overnight low so far at GRR is 41. Officially that is the coldest low so far this fall season the last time it has gotten this cold at GRR was on June 22 when the low was also 41. It is also the 1st time since June 21st to the 23rd that it has gotten into the 40's 3 nights in a row. The current temperature here is that 40 with clear skies.

[Andie]

Rapid City, So Dakota.  Woah!

[james1976]

Gonna make a run at 80 today and tomorrow but only 50s late week behind the system. Frost/freeze likely fri-sat mornings.

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, Clinton said:

What a stormy way to close out October, the GFS has 5 storms in the final two weeks of the month. We have been missing cold air in the pattern and that looks to change on Halloween.  Is this a trick or a treat that the models are showing in the long range?  The Euro Control shows this for temps to open up November.

While the GFS brings Iowa and Minnesota their first snowfall of the season.

At the very least the blocked up pattern looks to provide some very interesting weather.

Thanks for filling in for Major Tom while his system is down-n-out.

[james1976]

Upper 30s this morning. Already upper 60s before noon. Crazy

Make that 70 at 11:45AM

Edited October 18, 2021 by james1976