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October 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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The 12z GFS suggests you can open the pool back up here in KC early next week. 80's!!! 

 

Currently 6 degrees above average for October and that number looks to climb.

 

Stormy winter in KC, but rain? Hard cutters, warm side of storms. You better not give me a beautiful storm track this winter and no cold....I'll be patient

 

 

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Absolutely gorgeous day outside. Temps in the 60s w abundant sunshine. Lows tanite dipping into the 30s and probably close to 40F or so in the city of Detroit.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Late week and into the upcoming weekend promises to usher in some much colder air. As James explains in his statement above, highs will not rise much above the low 50s and nighttime lows have the potential for some frost and freeze warnings.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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2 hours ago, Niko said:

Late week and into the upcoming weekend promises to usher in some much colder air. As James explains in his statement above, highs will not rise much above the low 50s and nighttime lows have the potential for some frost and freeze warnings.

fwiw, Marshall hit 38F this morning. Last year, we had the earliest 32F low in many years which helped give us a brilliant color season. This year we are at least a month behind. So far behind, that the NWS office isn't even talking up the lack of frost(s) or freezes. Maybe they've punted frosts and just fast-forwarded since they put this out today..

 

GRR 1st Snows.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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13 hours ago, westMJim said:

With clear skies the overnight low so far here has been 40. The overnight low so far at GRR is 41. Officially that is the coldest low so far this fall season the last time it has gotten this cold at GRR was on June 22 when the low was also 41. It is also the 1st time since June 21st to the 23rd that it has gotten into the 40's 3 nights in a row. The current temperature here is that 40 with clear skies.

It's crazy that my location has reached a lower minimum temperature (39F) than you this fall, very unheard of!

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Still no freeze at KLNK, which is impressive considering it’s about ideal for radiational cooling as it gets (avg is oct 7th). Would not be surprised if it’s not until at least November for most of the city even if LNK freezes before then.

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Back in biz!  After years of using Windows, I made the switch to a Macbook Pro and I'm extremely pleased.  The only caveat will be getting used to using the OS which will take some time.  Anyway, what a glorious day it was yesterday.  It reminded me of a nice autumn day in AZ in the month of Nov with blue skies and a high of 72F.  Another stunner shaping up for today before big changes later in the week.  I'm sure the furnace will be on for a few days this week.  It's time.

Ready to track?  A series of storm systems are poised to track across the Sub underneath an expansive Hudson Bay Block.  I gotta say, this is a beauty of a 500mb pattern when we fast forward to the Winter season. #seedthecold

So, the long awaited trough is poised to roll on through this weekend before a brief ridge builds in early next week, but then is a potentially big Halloween storm brewing??  Wintry implications as we close out Oct and open Nov???  It may be so for those across the north and possible high Plains.

1.png

 

Looking out farther, the Euro weeklies are continuing to suggest a pattern change as the EPO heads negative/neutral as the PNA relaxes.  High lat blocking locks in for a while as a -AO/-NAO sets up.  I'll post these maps here instead of the Autumn discussions.  Is Winter lurking for the lower 48???

1107464202_14-kmEPS46-DAYSNorthernHemisphere5-dayAvg500ZAnom.gif

 

 

2.png

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

Back in biz!  After years of using Windows, I made the switch to a Macbook Pro and I'm extremely pleased.  The only caveat will be getting used to using the OS which will take some time.  Anyway, what a glorious day it was yesterday.  It reminded me of a nice autumn day in AZ in the month of Nov with blue skies and a high of 72F.  Another stunner shaping up for today before big changes later in the week.  I'm sure the furnace will be on for a few days this week.  It's time.

Ready to track?  A series of storm systems are poised to track across the Sub underneath an expansive Hudson Bay Block.  I gotta say, this is a beauty of a 500mb pattern when we fast forward to the Winter season. #seedthecold

So, the long awaited trough is poised to roll on through this weekend before a brief ridge builds in early next week, but then is a potentially big Halloween storm brewing??  Wintry implications as we close out Oct and open Nov???  It may be so for those across the north and possible high Plains.

1.png

 

Looking out farther, the Euro weeklies are continuing to suggest a pattern change as the EPO heads negative/neutral as the PNA relaxes.  High lat blocking locks in for a while as a -AO/-NAO sets up.  I'll post these maps here instead of the Autumn discussions.  Is Winter lurking for the lower 48???

1107464202_14-kmEPS46-DAYSNorthernHemisphere5-dayAvg500ZAnom.gif

 

 

2.png

Glad your back!  And I agree we have a fun pattern ahead. That Hudson Bay block is a beautiful thing.  The last few days I've been watching a storm around  Halloween and the EC has been real close to pulling in enough cold air for snow, last night it did it.  I hope this is a start to a colder trend but we will have to wait and see.  But we have another 4 or 5 storms to track to close out the month which is great!

1635789600-R28YaqK7f1o.png

6z GFS is joining in

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_49.png

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17 hours ago, MIKEKC said:

The 12z GFS suggests you can open the pool back up here in KC early next week. 80's!!! 

 

Currently 6 degrees above average for October and that number looks to climb.

 

Stormy winter in KC, but rain? Hard cutters, warm side of storms. You better not give me a beautiful storm track this winter and no cold....I'll be patient

 

 

KC has had snow and cold in 3 straight Octobers leading up to this year and it has translated into a whole lot of not much for those Winters.  Very little cold in fact with the exception of last February.  I think what's important going forward are the amount and strength of storms, the blocking setting up, and the fact storms are strengthening in our area.  Look at the big picture (esp the 500mb maps) and keep an eye on those teleconnections going forward.  So far (and it's very early) I think KC could have a much better Winter than what we've had recently.  Good luck buddy and go CHIEFS!

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Very quiet stretch of weather around here.  Regular season of HS football is ending this week, and the weather looks amazing for those games.  Our school has Parent Teacher Conferences today and tomorrow with our Fall Break Thursday and Friday.  Great time later this week to mulch some leaves.  Farmers have had one of the best autumns to pick that they can remember.  Sounds like a bumper crop is being harvested according to friends and relatives.

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Glad you're back to the norm @Tom

Been a quiet few days but we get active again tomorrow. A low should track close to the IA/MN border with some convection possible. Gets much colder behind this system. 50s to finish out the week with frost/freeze looking more like Saturday AM. 

Halloween storm would be awesome! Too bad its 11-12 days out. Interesting how long range models are in some agreement on it though.

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Clinton....after we finish the first 3 weeks of the new LRC, we will be 6-8 degrees above average on temps from OCT. 6th(first day of the new LRC) to OCT. 31st. Looks to be a very warm finish overall to OCT. according to the current data. Too much ridging following  the storm systems and no real dump of cold air. I know, its October, I don;t expect 30's for highs. But, we really have not been anywhere close to cold. Yes, cold fronts and I understand in Dec. and Jan. when we cycle back these fronts that  will be colder given the time of year. 

 

 Following Lezak for years, he always mentions that the "colder part of the pattern will return" or the "warmer/drier part of the pattern will return" according to the LRC.

 

Aren't you concerned about the first 3 weeks of the LRC being too warm. Yes, beautiful storm tracks the first 10 days and it appears more storms are a coming..

Above average now is 70-80 degrees...above average in Dec. is 35-45, so, if the pattern that produced well above average temps cycles, wouldn't it cycle the same in the winter. 

 

Good example, last year. we had a 10-15 day stretch in October that was well below average on temps and it produced the early season snows for many. When that part of the pattern cycled, it produced colder than normal temps and when it hit in Feb. the stars aligned, we had record cold across the country. Given  what we have seen so far and the very warm data for the next 2 weeks, where would a colder than average pattern set up? Time we get to early Nov. the LRC will be 4 weeks old and a very warm 4 weeks old.

 

YES! Go Chiefs, but, after watching that shootout last night and D. Henry going off, how do you propose we stop him. Our defense stinks! Mahomes will need to score 35-45 points next week to win. 

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56 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

Clinton....after we finish the first 3 weeks of the new LRC, we will be 6-8 degrees above average on temps from OCT. 6th(first day of the new LRC) to OCT. 31st. Looks to be a very warm finish overall to OCT. according to the current data. Too much ridging following  the storm systems and no real dump of cold air. I know, its October, I don;t expect 30's for highs. But, we really have not been anywhere close to cold. Yes, cold fronts and I understand in Dec. and Jan. when we cycle back these fronts that  will be colder given the time of year. 

 

 Following Lezak for years, he always mentions that the "colder part of the pattern will return" or the "warmer/drier part of the pattern will return" according to the LRC.

 

Aren't you concerned about the first 3 weeks of the LRC being too warm. Yes, beautiful storm tracks the first 10 days and it appears more storms are a coming..

Above average now is 70-80 degrees...above average in Dec. is 35-45, so, if the pattern that produced well above average temps cycles, wouldn't it cycle the same in the winter. 

 

Good example, last year. we had a 10-15 day stretch in October that was well below average on temps and it produced the early season snows for many. When that part of the pattern cycled, it produced colder than normal temps and when it hit in Feb. the stars aligned, we had record cold across the country. Given  what we have seen so far and the very warm data for the next 2 weeks, where would a colder than average pattern set up? Time we get to early Nov. the LRC will be 4 weeks old and a very warm 4 weeks old.

 

YES! Go Chiefs, but, after watching that shootout last night and D. Henry going off, how do you propose we stop him. Our defense stinks! Mahomes will need to score 35-45 points next week to win. 

This is where I think Gary does a poor job of explaining the LRC to folks and I remember back on his blog some would challenge him on things like this and he didn't like it.  I look where blocking sets up and longwave troughs and mean ridges.  So far I don't see many negatives as far as they are concerned.  We have currently had a -PNA as we go on through the fall that will likely not be the case very often as LaNina  has more of an influence.  The MJO has spent most of the month in the warm phase but is currently tracking towards the colder phase 8.  The blocking that we've had would suggest that most of the Winter will have a -AO and NAO which tends to strengthen the jet stream and allow artic air to filter down.  These teleconnections are all wild cards and I do not believe the LRC has any influence on them.  I do however believe that they influence the LRC. The LRC is great at letting us now when storms are likely to occure and where they may track and strengthen but not so much on what the conditions will be when they do.  That is why its so hard to make a prediction more than 30 days out.  Hope this helps and the Chiefs better buck up and stop King Henry!

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It is sunny and 71 here at my house right now. That last official reading for GRR was 70. It was just last year that the record high of 80 was set for Grand Rapids. 

It has been a record setting warm October so far and much of the area is still on course for one of the warmest Octobers on record. Here is where we stand as of this morning. Grand Rapids the mean so far is 63.3 and that is a departure of +9.3. At Holland the mean is 65.0 for a departure of +10.9. At Muskegon the mean is 64.3 for a departure of +10.0. At Lansing the mean is 64.1 for a departure of +10.6. To the east at Flint the mean is 64.1 for a departure of +11.9 at Saginaw the mean of 63.5 is good for a departure of +10.2  UP north at Alpena their mean of 60.0 is good for a departure of +10.2. At the Sault their mean of 61.2 is a departure of +12.2 and at Marquette their mean of 57.4 is a departure of +11.2. The only location that has gotten down to 32 so far is Marquette where the low so far this month is 32.

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So far this month, temps have been AN for mby each and everyday. It has been awesome! Cold air can come in November. 😄

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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4 hours ago, westMJim said:

It is sunny and 71 here at my house right now. That last official reading for GRR was 70. It was just last year that the record high of 80 was set for Grand Rapids. 

It has been a record setting warm October so far and much of the area is still on course for one of the warmest Octobers on record. Here is where we stand as of this morning. Grand Rapids the mean so far is 63.3 and that is a departure of +9.3. At Holland the mean is 65.0 for a departure of +10.9. At Muskegon the mean is 64.3 for a departure of +10.0. At Lansing the mean is 64.1 for a departure of +10.6. To the east at Flint the mean is 64.1 for a departure of +11.9 at Saginaw the mean of 63.5 is good for a departure of +10.2  UP north at Alpena their mean of 60.0 is good for a departure of +10.2. At the Sault their mean of 61.2 is a departure of +12.2 and at Marquette their mean of 57.4 is a departure of +11.2. The only location that has gotten down to 32 so far is Marquette where the low so far this month is 32.

You beat me to it. I was about to post it. Cannot believe how far late in the season it took for that area to get down to freezing.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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5 hours ago, james1976 said:

12z GFS remains active. No flakes for any of us yet though.

No hurry here bud. I'll wait til after Thanksgiving for the action to begin. My favorite time for Winter to kick-off is Black Friday and last till mid March. 😉

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I don't think I saw a cloud today. Absolutely gorgeous days. Sunny skies w no humidity, cool breezes, chilly nites and etc. I mean who can ask for anything more than this. Enjoy it now folks. Wont last!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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1 hour ago, tStacsh said:

I can't believe the lack of color this year so far.  

Unless you like the color "brown"

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The models are digesting the strength of the Hudson Bay block for next week.  This, IMO, is going to be a strong LRC exhibit in future cycles.  In previous days, the Euro had the early week system next week fading into the flow but in recent runs it has suddenly trended towards another "bowling ball" system.  I like the fact it maintains the strength of the system as it heads due west/east and is poised to soak the MW/OHV again.  

Before then, however, who's ready for some frosty mornings this weekend?  Another picture perfect Autumn weekend on tap around the region.  

1.png

2.png

 

0z Euro/EPS is quite wet for the MO/KC region and points east...

3.png

4.png

 

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Had a surprising 0.25” of rain last evening as the front came through. It is a cloudy, windy morning with temps in the low 40’s and wind chills in the 30’s. Even though my area has gotten down to 30 several mornings already, NWS Hastings is still issuing Frost and Freeze advisories until the area has a killing freeze. I’m in another Frost Advisory tonight. 

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Nothing like skipping & jumping from summer to winter 🤪

image.png.230d109e5b42da0eba79f96ca01a006b.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I am getting the yard ready for the winter season. Yesterday I kind of cleaned up the garage and put the cover on the outside part of the AC this is by far the latest that I have done that. I also have dug up the gladiolus and will get them ready for winter storage. Today I will dig up the elephant ear plants. It was a very good year for my elephant ears and they grew up to almost 5 feet tall. I have plants in pots that I will keep as long as possible. I will also cut the grass again today. The grass is still growing very good almost like it would in the spring. One thing so far this year no raking the leaves yet. Not sure when that will happen. It might be a while yet at the coldest it has gotten here at my house is 39. While we wait for that first 32° It was just in 2016 when the first low of 32 did not happen until November 12th.  At this time it is clear and 59 here.

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Chops and potatoes on the Weber with a cold one out on the deck. Windy and cloudy and 61°.

Local met lowered temps for next week. Mainly 50s for the next 10 days....couple low 60s. Hard freeze likely Saturday AM with a forecast low of 28. Few systems in there as well. Love it!

Just dropped to 54! This system and front mean business. 

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