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October 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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GRR with a rare late evening updated AFD

Quote
.UPDATE...
Issued at 943 PM EDT Wed Oct 20 2021

Focus this evening remains on the threat of thunderstorms. Storms
continue over Lake Michigan as of 915pm in a zone of moisture
convergence. These storms earlier in the evening produced hail on
the order pea to even up to nickel size over Southeast Wisconsin.

The cold front remains well up stream near the Mississippi River
at 01z. The front will make steady progress and move into our area
overnight, exiting eastern portions of our forecast area Thursday
morning.

Thunderstorms are expected to continue tonight and are currently
being aided by a relatively warm lake. This is the time of year
that storms actually get a boost over Lake Michigan. Another
factor is a healthy upper low moving our direction from the
plains states which is adding synoptic scale lift to the equation.
MUCAPE values are expected to continue to rise tonight as better
moisture works our direction on southerly winds ahead of the
front, possibly exceeding 1,000 J/KG for a few hours as shown by
the RAP. This level of instability is not extreme, but quite high
for a late October night.

Bottom line, expect scattered showers and storms to continue
through 11pm. Storms will become more numerous between 11pm and
5am as the front and upper low approach from the west. SPC HREF
guidance supports this thinking when looking at the 4hr max
reflectivity prog.

We are not expecting severe weather, but lightning/thunder is
expected along with the threat of some small hail, generally a
half inch in diameter and less. Brief heavy rain is possible as
well, with PWATs increasing to 1.25 inches.

&&

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Finally I see a mention of the strange situation

Quote
Colder air builds in as the rain exits the area Thursday. This
weekend should be the coolest of the next 7-10 days with highs
Friday into Monday maxing out around 50 degrees. Could see the
elusive first frost for some of the area this weekend- though
clouds could keep temperatures just above freezing. Widespread hard
freeze of 28 degrees or colder still not looking likely before
November. Some moderation of temperatures through next week, but
cooler than what we have experienced these past few days.

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Sometimes, we just go into Nov without a freeze. Not unheard of for many places in SMI

 

GRR Latest freeze dates.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Anyone saw a meteor shower this morning or whatever that heck that was that traveled across the sky.

  • Confused 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Another winner today as temps soared into the 70s w lots of sunshine. CF on the way. Much cooler air coming w highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s starting Friday. Next week doesn't look all that mild as predicted earlier this week. Models are now trending cooler.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Strange times for the high and low

image.png.c27bae578a0c43220e85969985e8d5f1.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Quote

...THE OMAHA NE CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER 20 2021...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1871 TO 2021


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         66   1238 AM  89    1947  63      3       44       
  MINIMUM         52    244 PM  20    1916  41     11       34       
  AVERAGE         59                        52      7       39     

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3 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Monday going into the tank in just 24 hours--- new run GFS vs 24 hours ago--

Monday 4pm-

sfct.us_mw.pngsfct.us_mw.png

Boy, did that trend nicely...Hudson Bay block doing its dirty work...nice system heading into the region early next week that looks to soak a lot of us.  

 

 

0z Euro...convective features showing up on the globals at this range indicate to me as we get closer this system could pack quite the punch.  Gosh, these systems we have been tracking have been quite compact and strong.  Pure eye candy and keeps my hopes up that Winter should deliver the goods.  Let's get through Autumn first though.

1.png

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This 500mb animation below is a thing of beauty.  It may feature one of the coldest parts of the new LRC pattern, esp near the GL's/MW region.  Watch that little vortex near Hudson Bay get shunted down south creating a Fujiwhara Effect and parking itself over Ontario...Polar Vortex intrusion scenario come Dec???  Possibly.

Not only that, but how could you not like how these systems are flowing off the Pacific and raging into Cali and literally tracking cross country.  Recall in years past, some that are being used as analogs, I vividly remember these PAC systems would rage into the west but then cut northeast which then pumped the ridge and torched us.  Not this year.  It really does look promising that we will have sufficient blocking across Canada.  

1.gif

 

Finally, the models are all picking up on a monster trough in the east to close out the month.  Took a little while but its all coming together nicely.  Halloween Monster in the works for the Eastern Sub???  Might as well finish off this month with a big bang just like it started.  Rock it out Mother nature!

I'll finish with this post as it is one of my go-to LR forecasting models....10mb/30mb strat warming event on going setting up what will be a wild open to November.  Get ready Upper MW/Plains who get it first and then it will bleed east.  Taste of Ol' Man Winter is lurking...

temp10anim.gif

 

temp30anim.gif

 

 

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

This 500mb animation below is a thing of beauty.  It may feature one of the coldest parts of the new LRC pattern, esp near the GL's/MW region.  Watch that little vortex near Hudson Bay get shunted down south creating a Fujiwhara Effect and parking itself over Ontario...Polar Vortex intrusion scenario come Dec???  Possibly.

Not only that, but how could you not like how these systems are flowing off the Pacific and raging into Cali and literally tracking cross country.  Recall in years past, some that are being used as analogs, I vividly remember these PAC systems would rage into the west but then cut northeast which then pumped the ridge and torched us.  Not this year.  It really does look promising that we will have sufficient blocking across Canada.  

1.gif

 

Finally, the models are all picking up on a monster trough in the east to close out the month.  Took a little while but its all coming together nicely.  Halloween Monster in the works for the Eastern Sub???  Might as well finish off this month with a big bang just like it started.  Rock it out Mother nature!

I'll finish with this post as it is one of my go-to LR forecasting models....10mb/30mb strat warming event on going setting up what will be a wild open to November.  Get ready Upper MW/Plains who get it first and then it will bleed east.  Taste of Ol' Man Winter is lurking...

temp10anim.gif

 

temp30anim.gif

 

 

Love the cooling trend on the models, the teleconnections seem to be headed more in our favor also.

The MJO is on the move towards phase 1 as we enter Nov.

untitled image

The PNA looks to stay positive for awhile.

1634774400-fezBFVh9KtQgrb2.png

The WPO which has been sky high looks to relax.

1634774400-kRUUTMKy4rsgrb2.png

This plus the Hudson Bay block you showed say the cooling trend is legit.  Hopefully it will trend cooler yet and some up north will pick up some snow before the end of the month.  If modeling is correct we will finish Oct with 7 closed off storms, compared to 3 we had last Oct.

 

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Here is Grand Rapids area we had a nice thunderstorm overnight that dropped 0.45" here at my house and the official amount at GRR looks to have been 0.46" The overnight low here at my house was 56 and the official low so far at GRR looks to have been 58. At this time with partly cloudy skies it is 57 here at my house. So far this fall season the coldest official low at GRR has been just 40. The average date for the first low of 39 or lower is September 24th the latest date for a sub 40° low is October 25, 2017 This year will be at least the 2nd latest for that to happen in GRR recorded history.

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40 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Love the cooling trend on the models, the teleconnections seem to be headed more in our favor also.

The MJO is on the move towards phase 1 as we enter Nov.

untitled image

The PNA looks to stay positive for awhile.

1634774400-fezBFVh9KtQgrb2.png

The WPO which has been sky high looks to relax.

1634774400-kRUUTMKy4rsgrb2.png

This plus the Hudson Bay block you showed say the cooling trend is legit.  Hopefully it will trend cooler yet and some up north will pick up some snow before the end of the month.  If modeling is correct we will finish Oct with 7 closed off storms, compared to 3 we had last Oct.

 

It just feels like everything could come together, finally…even Gary is showing some excitement.  How are his nightly wx episodes on TV?

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2 minutes ago, Tom said:

It just feels like everything could come together, finally…even Gary is showing some excitement.  How are his nightly wx episodes on TV?

He seems happy so far.  He said last night he would blog today about the potential for cold air to blast south.

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Its a raw morning. Blustery with showers and mid 40s. Picked up a tenth overnight and half inch Tue night with the first round. This has been a windy Autumn system. I always love those. Noticed yesterday there is a lot of color in the trees now.

Freeze Warning for tonight! And Friday night looks even colder. The leaves should really start falling now.

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1 hour ago, someweatherdude said:

There was some conversation on here the other day where someone mentioned that Fargo's latest first freeze is actually 10.24 -- recorded in 1994.  Not sure if you're actually in Fargo.  

 

 

Yeah that's interesting. I looked it up through the NWS climate center and that's how I got 10/19/1936.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Certainly looks and feels like Autumn. Mean, looking cloudcover w small tiny blue skies showing in between, along w a cool North W wind flow, making it feel blustery. Colors are also beginning to show more frequently now.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Big lightning show here this morning around 6am. No severe weather reported, but it was certainly nice to see. Also, no thunder was heard as well. It did rained, but nothing heavy.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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NOAA:

Here we go:

Saturday night will have the best potential at seeing widespread
frost across southeast Michigan as the closed low begins to break
down and shift off to the east as low pressure strengthens in the
central Plains. In between across the central Great Lakes, weak
surface ridging looks to briefly take hold and may allow for clouds
to briefly scour out Saturday night, and along with near calm winds,
low temperatures should easily be able to fall into the mid 30s,
with low 30s in the colder spots in play. End of the growing season
for southeast Michigan is typically around this time of year, and
Saturday night may just provide the setup to end the growing season
regardless.
  • Thanks 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Check out the parade of storms lined up over the Pacific Ocean. Hopefully, this will bring an end to the "Wildfire Season."

https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/MicrosoftTeams-image-2021-10-21T142705.711.jpg?w=632

 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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5 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

Yeah that's interesting. I looked it up through the NWS climate center and that's how I got 10/19/1936.

the site I use is here-   https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/

i thought it maybe had something to do with "Fargo Area" and "Fargo Hector Field" but the results are the same.

according to it has 10/19/1938 in 5th place. 1936 was way back in September. image.png.7522626ace901125053fc96b398d4d15.png

 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Likely a sub 50F high today for DSM. So far it's 48F. Last time a sub 50 high was recorded at DSM was April 21st at 47F. May 28th was 50F.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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5 hours ago, Niko said:

Big lightning show here this morning around 6am. No severe weather reported, but it was certainly nice to see. Also, no thunder was heard as well. It did rained, but nothing heavy.

Really? was solid 30 mins of thunder here in Canton. Most I've heard in a long time. good sign of a dynamic system

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  • Storm 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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3 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

the site I use is here-   https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/

i thought it maybe had something to do with "Fargo Area" and "Fargo Hector Field" but the results are the same.

according to it has 10/19/1938 in 5th place. 1936 was way back in September. image.png.7522626ace901125053fc96b398d4d15.png

 

And this year's flip is only a few days later than 2013. hmmm..

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Pretty strong wording for a rainer.

Quote
Timing the onset of precipitation in these situations where strongly
opposing factors are in play is sometimes difficult for the models.
The time range of uncertainty in this case, as it stands now,
involves the I-96 corridor southward around the Monday morning
commute. Of course, a lot can change between now and then but it`s
worth noting that an ugly Monday morning drive is quite plausible
for southern zones at least.

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Really? was solid 30 mins of thunder here in Canton. Most I've heard in a long time. good sign of a dynamic system

 Vivid lightning mostly w light to moderate rainfall, but yes, thunder was limited here, if any. It was definitely a dynamic system though.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Temps are dropping now that the CF has rolled on by. Readings are now in the 40s and expected to drop to near 40F by morning. Maybe a few spots in the upper 30s. The weekend features colder air w temps dropping here imby on Saturday nite between 30-35F. Coldest its been since last Spring. Frost on pumpkins is looking likely. Winds should be fairly calm that evening.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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