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October 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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As some have mentioned, the secondary front that came through yesterday was noteworthy.  I could totally see this system cycle through as being a potent hybrid clipper that has an arctic component to it.  Very impressive to say the least.  Woke up early yesterday morning when temps were in the 60's and by Noon it was in the upper 40's!  It was a very raw, breezy and chilly day yesterday.  Autumn is certainly here to stay and now that the models are beginning to show the effects of the Hudson Bay/High Lat blocking, cooler temps are in the grids.  This is going to feel like one of those classic flips into #RealAutumn.  Not to mention, but is nature dialing up Back-to-Back CO Bowling Balls????  Man, what a friggin' phenomenal pattern.  I'm wx geekin' over here!

With so much on my mind as we see this fascinating wx pattern develop, I'll be the first one to say, that I'm convinced our Sub will be see something we haven't seen in a while.  In other words, when you combine the potency of the systems, the number of systems and then you add the blocking patterns into the mix, I haven't seen a pattern like this in over a decade for the Autumn season...maybe longer???  It just seems like its been a very Longgg time ago.  

Let's talk storms...the latest storm to spin up late this weekend is poised to become yet another potent mid-lat cyclone tracking underneath a sweet "Banana HP".   A dream track for us in the MW/Lower Lakes region.  Is that all....nope!  Another potent system tracks off the Pacific into the west and takes a similar track through Cali/CO into the developing LRC's "Slot".  This type of track encompasses many of us in the Sub to feel the impacts of what will be a grand finally massive trough over the GL's region to finish off the month.  

BTW, watch that tropical energy entering W Mexico and phasing into the flow over TX.  Are we seeing a Harmonic Rhythm within the developing pattern?  It was just about 2 weeks to the date that a similar pattern developed down there and into the S Plains.  Wild stuff.

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SO, as this active pattern continues to develop, our Nation is going to be inundated with beneficial precip out West and East.  Coast to Coast Action....I remember back in 2016, the inter mountain west had barely any snow.  In fact, I remember it vividly bc I drove into CO when the Cubs won the World Series and it snowed the night before a couple inches in the Foothills of CO.  That was the only snow of the Autumn season through early Nov.  Pretty lame...but not this year.  Happy Friday folks!  Bundle up...and Giddy up...I'm stoked where we are heading.

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1.png

 

 

 

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Interesting temp trends to our current 5-day period compared to 3 days ago per the EPS...

3 days ago...

1.png

 

Vs Current 5-day period...

2.png

 

 

Meantime, I like seeing these "ripples" in the atmosphere tracking underneath the base of the strong trough centered over Ontario as we some snow falling near @FAR_Weather.  I recall back in Feb of this year we had a similar situation happen when numerous waves tracked in a similar fashion.  Interesting to see a similar pattern.

 

 

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Another severe weather set-up coming this weekend.  This system could deliver a major severe weather outbreak in the KC area come Spring time and some major Winter weather before then.  I believe it's been over 2 years since KC had a Tornado Watch, I would say the chance of that ending next Spring is close to 100% it may end this weekend.

0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook

0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook

And there's more with the 2nd stormday5prob.gif

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There was 0.07" of rain fall here yesterday while the day started sunny it became cloudy and was cool all day long with a few showers. The overnight low both here and at the airport was 37 that 37 at GRR was the 1st time it has dropped below 40 at Grand Rapids the fall season. It was also the 1st time it dropped below 40 since May 30th and it 2nd latest date for it to drop below 40 at Grand Rapids the latest date is October 25th 2017. At this time it is cloudy and 41 both here and at the airport.

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17 minutes ago, Tom said:

I officially have seen frost on the tops of roofs on my morning walk.  I can check that off of the Autumn list.  Now I wait for the 1st freeze.  Got down to 38F.

Same here.  We've been in the mid 30s for several hours.  There is a bit of frost on roofs and the grass.  It should be a bit heavier tonight.

Edit:  The Cedar Rapids airport is reporting 31º at 8am (always colder than the city on calm, cold mornings like this), so CR has officially had its first freeze.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

Interesting temp trends to our current 5-day period compared to 3 days ago per the EPS...

3 days ago...

1.png

 

Vs Current 5-day period...

2.png

 

 

Meantime, I like seeing these "ripples" in the atmosphere tracking underneath the base of the strong trough centered over Ontario as we some snow falling near @FAR_Weather.  I recall back in Feb of this year we had a similar situation happen when numerous waves tracked in a similar fashion.  Interesting to see a similar pattern.

 

 

Picking up where we left off?? Feb may well have been a "sneak preview". Wild how that vort map reminds me of bliz of '99 maps

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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How this low tracks will be interesting.  Right now the Euro tracks the low along US 36 in northern Mo.  The GFS tracks the low along I-80 through central Iowa.  This time it's no biggie it's just who gets a little more rain than others but if this were Winter it would be model mayhem.

1635130800-uRkXHxe327A.png

1635130800-zsNSJrYjSZc.png

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Monday looking very raw around SEMI

DTX:

Moisture flux
persists during this time supporting PWATs in excess of 1.00 inch,
and could see some heavier showers. Not much accompanying warmth
near the surface given ambient ENE flow through Monday. Anticipate a
windy Monday afternoon as stronger LLJ winds spill north amongst
modest surface pressure gradient.
  • Like 3

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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11 minutes ago, Clinton said:

How this low tracks will be interesting.  Right now the Euro tracks the low along US 36 in northern Mo.  The GFS tracks the low along I-80 through central Iowa.  This time it's no biggie it's just who gets a little more rain than others but if this were Winter it would be model mayhem.

1635130800-uRkXHxe327A.png

1635130800-zsNSJrYjSZc.png

That's at H5, SLP normally tracks just a bit south of that, correct?

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

I officially have seen frost on the tops of roofs on my morning walk.  I can check that off of the Autumn list.  Now I wait for the 1st freeze.  Got down to 38F.

There is a chance that could have happened here as well but clouds moved in and the temperature went up to 40 and held there the rest of the night. At this time it is 47 and partly cloudy here.

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13 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I believe so maybe someone else can give a more definitive answer.

Iirc, in a major winter storm the gurus refer to the SLP, H5, and H7 lows. The region traversed by the H7 usually is the jack zone. Big dog blizzards can get "stacked" when all three Lows align vertically. That's usually an historic storm at it's peak..

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

How this low tracks will be interesting.  Right now the Euro tracks the low along US 36 in northern Mo.  The GFS tracks the low along I-80 through central Iowa.  This time it's no biggie it's just who gets a little more rain than others but if this were Winter it would be model mayhem.

1635130800-uRkXHxe327A.png

1635130800-zsNSJrYjSZc.png

i wonder how this would track in the winter when the hudson blocking is stronger. It would easily push the low further south a couple hundred miles

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1 minute ago, Jayhawker85 said:

i wonder how this would track in the winter when the hudson blocking is stronger. It would easily push the low further south a couple hundred miles

It certainly could, I'm rooting hard for the Euro to be right on the track.  The GFS looks to be correct on moving it through faster which will just about kill our severe weather threat this time.  

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39 minutes ago, Clinton said:

It certainly could, I'm rooting hard for the Euro to be right on the track.  The GFS looks to be correct on moving it through faster which will just about kill our severe weather threat this time.  

Interesting early storm tracking battle on our hands. I'd not get too hung-up as you mentioned, since it's just autumn rainer. Could be the GFS wins this, and indeed a cold-season tracks further south as the jet adjusts.

Do you have the two options showing the SLP tho?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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2 minutes ago, westMJim said:

Not sure how much longer it will last but there is still leaves on the trees in Houghton. I am sure this is one of the latest that has happened up there in many years if not the latest of all time"
https://www.mtu.edu/webcams/view/
There are more web cams if you click on the left hand side.

I’m surprised to see how green the grass is up there along with the rest of the vegetation.

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16 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Interesting early storm tracking battle on our hands. I'd not get too hung-up as you mentioned, since it's just autumn rainer. Could be the GFS wins this, and indeed a cold-season tracks further south as the jet adjusts.

Do you have the two options showing the SLP tho?

1635130800-uFPKFQp5Ab4.png

1635120000-SCgZjxbUGSg.png

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All models appear to be on board a big, wrapped-up system slowly traversing the upper midwest/great lakes mid to late next week.  The GFS had been out to lunch for the last 24 hours, but it has re-joined the others this morning.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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28 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Yes and when you look at the ensemble means both take the low across northern Mo.  We might be a player on this one later on but Iowa looks to be gold for sure.

Both very consistent on sub-1000mb SLP. Thats nice 👍

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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4 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

All models appear to be on board a big, wrapped-up system slowly traversing the upper midwest/great lakes mid to late next week.

Maps??

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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2 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Maps??

The models are pretty similar, showing something like this.

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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45 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

All models appear to be on board a big, wrapped-up system slowly traversing the upper midwest/great lakes mid to late next week.  The GFS had been out to lunch for the last 24 hours, but it has re-joined the others this morning.

I like how these systems aren't flying by to the north. I assume blocking is having quite the effect. 

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Well, today's 12z Euro just moved way back south with the mid to late week bowling ball system.  That is what models were showing a few days ago before they all moved up here.

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Temps started off in the upper 30s here this morning under mostly sunny skies.

Looks like a good batch of rain coming for late Sunday and into Monday and more rain by midweek. As we get closer to the colder months, these type of storm systems that we are getting right now could mean real business in terms of snowfall.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Barely hit 50F today w blustery conditions. Already fell back into the 40s throughout this afternoon under mostly cloudy skies.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Time to fire up the Weber and cook some chicken and roast some yams!  There won’t be many more days to use the grill this season so might as well use it while you can.  
 

EDIT: 0z EPS opens the door for Ol’ Man Winter in Novembrrrr….it’s gonna get chilly folks!

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Cedar Rapids is currently the coldest location in Iowa.... 42º.  We should get to the low 30s tonight.  We certainly don't have far to fall.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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7 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Monday looking very raw around SEMI

DTX:

Moisture flux
persists during this time supporting PWATs in excess of 1.00 inch,
and could see some heavier showers. Not much accompanying warmth
near the surface given ambient ENE flow through Monday. Anticipate a
windy Monday afternoon as stronger LLJ winds spill north amongst
modest surface pressure gradient.

Yes sir. Tbh, I would not be surprised if highs remain in the 40s, along w that chilly, cold rain falling.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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