james1976 Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 Man what a flip in the pattern. I only reached 46 today. Another freeze warning tonight (last night only got down to 34). Its already clear and 43 so we should hit upper 20s tonight. Local met has got rid of any 60s in the next 10 days. All 50s with only upper 40s and rain on Sunday. A few days ago it was looking considerably warmer for next week. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 GRR AFD was crazy long this pm. Cannot remember a longer one outside of winter since perhaps Nov 2013's big storm. This is just the Sun/Mon system. If it were only winter, lol - System Sunday night into Monday rather wet and windy We do get an significant rain event later Sunday into Monday. This results from the lead Pacific shortwave cutting under the blocking upper high in Central Canada. Curiously as it tracks east in tries to phase with another shortwave rotating around the eastern Canada upper low (was over Hudson Bay). This results in a coupled upper jet feature over our area. We will be in the deformation zone of this system as the surface low will track between I-80 and I-94. The system will have strong Gulf inflow. It will also have decent mid -level FGEN between I-94 and I-96 Sunday night into Monday. There will be strong isentropic lift north of the warm front (between I-94 and I-96). So, while initially the systems rain shield will have to fight dry air coming in from Ontario, there is by far and away enough moisture overriding the front to bring the rain to the ground. There is good model and ensemble agreement of between a 0.5" and 1.5" of rain from this event. I could see locally 2 inches falling. The good news is the heaviest rain will be where was fairly dry most of the late summer into early fall. With a large Canadian high, centered just west of Hudson Bay and 1000 mb low tracking just south of I-94, there will be a strong, cold east wind Monday over this area. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 8 minutes ago, jaster220 said: GRR AFD was crazy long this pm. Cannot remember a longer one outside of winter since perhaps Nov 2013's big storm. This is just the Sun/Mon system. If it were only winter, lol - System Sunday night into Monday rather wet and windy We do get an significant rain event later Sunday into Monday. This results from the lead Pacific shortwave cutting under the blocking upper high in Central Canada. Curiously as it tracks east in tries to phase with another shortwave rotating around the eastern Canada upper low (was over Hudson Bay). This results in a coupled upper jet feature over our area. We will be in the deformation zone of this system as the surface low will track between I-80 and I-94. The system will have strong Gulf inflow. It will also have decent mid -level FGEN between I-94 and I-96 Sunday night into Monday. There will be strong isentropic lift north of the warm front (between I-94 and I-96). So, while initially the systems rain shield will have to fight dry air coming in from Ontario, there is by far and away enough moisture overriding the front to bring the rain to the ground. There is good model and ensemble agreement of between a 0.5" and 1.5" of rain from this event. I could see locally 2 inches falling. The good news is the heaviest rain will be where was fairly dry most of the late summer into early fall. With a large Canadian high, centered just west of Hudson Bay and 1000 mb low tracking just south of I-94, there will be a strong, cold east wind Monday over this area. Everything written so perfect for a major snowstorm in SMI.......like you said bud, "If it were only winter." 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 Snow showers all afternoon today. That big lake is gonna rock with a little bit of cold! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 23, 2021 Author Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 Waiting for skies to clear up so temps can drop. First Frost advisory of the season...check that off the Autumn list...prob going to do some final garden/yard work, cover the A/C and put my patio furniture away later today before the soaking rains. Leaves continue to fall at a slow pace so no raking just yet. I gotta feeling they will come down quickly once we turn the calendar into November. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 For those whom put stock in CPC 6-10 day and 8-14 temp forecasts ( I never have as the bias is obvious) where was this cool shot 1-2 weeks ago??? Not even close to what has happened. DSM is going to be -6F ( or so) for a 5 day period starting on the 21st - through the 25th. And that is "above normal" according to previous outlooks??? CPC is blinded by political issues. No accountability either. Sorry for the rant and truth. And yet their winter forecasts are what get blasted on main stream media. Even Jim Flowers called them out on that. Sorry for the rant, but Truth will set you free!! 7 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 23, 2021 Author Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said: For those whom put stock in CPC 6-10 day and 8-14 temp forecasts ( I never have as the bias is obvious) where was this cool shot 1-2 weeks ago??? Not even close to what has happened. DSM is going to be -6F ( or so) for a 5 day period starting on the 21st - through the 25th. And that is "above normal" according to previous outlooks??? CPC is blinded by political issues. No accountability either. Sorry for the rant and truth. And yet their winter forecasts are what get blasted on main stream media. Even Jim Flowers called them out on that. Sorry for the rant, but Truth will set you free!! Agree x100...I personally think they are not preparing the public for a robust Winter ahead for the eastern 2/3rd's of the nation. I dunno, but sometimes I feel they hold way to much bias as you've stated. Meantime, a wild week of wx heading for us to close out the month. Fun times ahead Grizz! Fired up a new thread for November... https://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/9236-november-2021-observations-and-discussion/ 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 There was another 0.10" of rain fall here yesterday and overnight. Also yesterday was just the 2nd day this month with a mean that was below average. Clouds kept the overnight low in the 40's with a low of 41 here at this time it is cloudy and 42. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 Waking up to a little rain this morning as I'm on the northern edge of a shield of rain being caused by a developing warm front. A chance for some good rumbles tonight. The SPC has me in a slight risk. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 We definitely got our first freeze this morning, along with heavy frost. The CR airport hit 29º and the station down the road from me hit 30.8º. Waterloo and Marshalltown hit 26º and Mason City hit 23º! 5 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 6 hours ago, Grizzcoat said: For those whom put stock in CPC 6-10 day and 8-14 temp forecasts ( I never have as the bias is obvious) where was this cool shot 1-2 weeks ago??? Not even close to what has happened. DSM is going to be -6F ( or so) for a 5 day period starting on the 21st - through the 25th. And that is "above normal" according to previous outlooks??? CPC is blinded by political issues. No accountability either. Sorry for the rant and truth. And yet their winter forecasts are what get blasted on main stream media. Even Jim Flowers called them out on that. Sorry for the rant, but Truth will set you free!! forecast has been spot on here. Looking like normal temps after a very warm October. Cooler than forecasted, but nothing cold. Funny Mainstream media predicted a warm and less snowy winter last year. Spot on again at least for here. Only the message boards got last winter wrong. Why does everything have to be political? CPC is right more than they are wrong. It's not easy to predict over 7 days out. Who's biased? 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 It is definitely a dismal, dreary, chilly morning outside w temps holding steady into the 40s. Much cooler weather next week, than what was anticipated earlier on. I even had temps forecasted to near 65 to even near 70F for middle parts of the week (that for sure aint happening), now highs are predicted to be at best in the upper 50s. Btw: highs on Tuesday will remain in the 40s for mby. Far cry from the 60s that were forecasted. Wow, what a change! 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 It's 7-10 day snowstorm teaser season. 3 1 1 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 8 hours ago, Grizzcoat said: For those whom put stock in CPC 6-10 day and 8-14 temp forecasts ( I never have as the bias is obvious) where was this cool shot 1-2 weeks ago??? Not even close to what has happened. DSM is going to be -6F ( or so) for a 5 day period starting on the 21st - through the 25th. And that is "above normal" according to previous outlooks??? CPC is blinded by political issues. No accountability either. Sorry for the rant and truth. And yet their winter forecasts are what get blasted on main stream media. Even Jim Flowers called them out on that. Sorry for the rant, but Truth will set you free!! It's political bc people like you make it political. Speaking of bias.... I don't remember a single winter weather forecast here that wasn't going to be epic, things never seen before, and proof of the next ice age coming. In fact this fall was supposed to start fast back in SEPTEMBER!! Now we're begging for the first snows before November and some of us haven't even had our first freeze, much less if we have it was in the top 5 for latest, and then you're ragging on the CPC for a 5 day stretch. It's funny how triggered people get about the "main stream media" picking on you, yet never have seemed to show the proof or political gain why the folks at NASA, the CPC, and the vast majority of scientists on the globe are in agreement. Lemme guess, it's bc they all have stocks in wind turbines? 1 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 Models had been suggesting another warmer period after this weekend... hence the above avg CPC outlooks. The models were wrong, therefore the outlooks were wrong. It's not complicated. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 Just now, Hawkeye said: Models had been suggesting another warmer period after this weekend... hence the above avg CPC outlooks. The models were wrong, therefore the outlooks were wrong. It's not complicated. Spot on. Is the 12z GFS trying to tease you with some flakes on the 1st? I hope it's on to something. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 Picked up .75 in the gauge this morning. The weekend is off to a wet start. 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 2 hours ago, tStacsh said: forecast has been spot on here. Looking like normal temps after a very warm October. Cooler than forecasted, but nothing cold. Funny Mainstream media predicted a warm and less snowy winter last year. Spot on again at least for here. Only the message boards got last winter wrong. Why does everything have to be political? CPC is right more than they are wrong. It's not easy to predict over 7 days out. Who's biased? If that's the case, they should just stop with the d8-14 outlook then. After watching them for many years, it's obvious that: 1) Their confidence level beyond d7 is never high enough in BN happening so they will just lean "safe". (aka warm bias) 2) They are often "caught off-guard" by cold snaps that Tom sniffs out weeks ahead of the Gov Gurus. (Tom's just a hobbyist, aka they suck) 3) As for seasonal outlooks, when's the last time the CPC called for a "BN" let alone "COLD/Frigid/etc" winter? The handwriting was on the wall back in 2013 and everybody BUT the GG's were going that way. (one of their worst ever botched seasonal releases) 4 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 My first "Frost Advisory of the season." Frost Advisory URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 302 PM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021 MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-240815- /O.NEW.KDTX.FR.Y.0007.211024T0500Z-211024T1300Z/ Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee- Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne- Lenawee-Monroe- Including the cities of Midland, Bay City, Bad Axe, Saginaw, Caro, Sandusky, Owosso, Flint, Lapeer, Port Huron, Howell, Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor, Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe 302 PM EDT Sat Oct 23 2021 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY... * WHAT...Temperatures in the low to mid 30s will result in frost formation. * WHERE...Portions of southeast Michigan. * WHEN...From 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday. * IMPACTS...Frost could could harm plants and other sensitive outdoor vegetation if left uncovered. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. 2 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 2 hours ago, Clinton said: Picked up .75 in the gauge this morning. The weekend is off to a wet start. SPC might go moderate risk tomorrow and I'm thinking about chasing. I've only ever been in northern Missouri. What's the terrain like in western Missouri south of Kansas City? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 1 minute ago, OmahaSnowFan said: SPC might go moderate risk tomorrow and I'm thinking about chasing. I've only ever been in northern Missouri. What's the terrain like in western Missouri south of Kansas City? Straight south of KC on I-49 is flat but as you go east toward me and hwy 65 it gets rougher. Message me if your in the area, looks like I'll be in the hatch area but the real fun might be off to my east. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 Being from Memphis, there's easy direct route between there and Memphis. I've taken Hwy 13 from Springfield to Clinton (then Hwy 7 to I-49) a handful of times. The area around Hwy 13 is hillier than eastern Nebraska, but nothing too crazy. Nothing like the Ozarks. Further east might be a different story like Clinton said. 2 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 20 minutes ago, Clinton said: Straight south of KC on I-49 is flat but as you go east toward me and hwy 65 it gets rougher. Message me if your in the area, looks like I'll be in the hatch area but the real fun might be off to my east. Will do! I definitely hate chasing in the trees and hills, especially with the expected fast storm motions tomorrow 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 7 hours ago, Hawkeye said: We definitely got our first freeze this morning, along with heavy frost. The CR airport hit 29º and the station down the road from me hit 30.8º. Waterloo and Marshalltown hit 26º and Mason City hit 23º! Nice! Wondered what the official lows were in the area. I had 28 at my house early this morning. Definitely a hard freeze! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 4 hours ago, Hawkeye said: Models had been suggesting another warmer period after this weekend... hence the above avg CPC outlooks. The models were wrong, therefore the outlooks were wrong. It's not complicated. That's my main issue. Model worshipers. Even at CPC. So you need a Masters in MET to issue outlooks from models? I agree, they clearly just use the GFS for 6-10 and 8-14 outlooks, not even a forecast. They can do better, but have no reason to do so because no one ever calls them out. Rant over. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted October 23, 2021 Report Share Posted October 23, 2021 Pretty impressive for late OCT- 1 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted October 24, 2021 Report Share Posted October 24, 2021 The CPC only uses the GFS model and says f*ck it for their forecasts?! One can assume you’ve actually seen their forecast methods or are you being just another social media expert like for example all the Facebook and YouTube COVID experts? 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted October 24, 2021 Report Share Posted October 24, 2021 32 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said: The CPC only uses the GFS model and says f*ck it for their forecasts?! One can assume you’ve actually seen their forecast methods or are you being just another social media expert like for example all the Facebook and YouTube COVID experts? It has been a warm October in Omaha, the vaxxed are still terrified of the unvaxxed, and the climate alarmists should be demanding that we ban SUVs like the Yukon Extra Large. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted October 24, 2021 Report Share Posted October 24, 2021 12 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said: It has been a warm October in Omaha, the vaxxed are still terrified of the unvaxxed, and the climate alarmists should be demanding that we ban SUVs like the Yukon Extra Large. LET'S GO BRANDON!!! 4 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted October 24, 2021 Report Share Posted October 24, 2021 Why is it that GFS and even Euro ( of late) have struggled in seeing cold (below normal air) from much past 5-6 days out but have no problems seeing above normal air from weeks out? It's a fair a question. Anyone that has followed CPC over the years (22+ years as professional in the weather field here ) that is unbiased would admit they have warm bias. If you can see that, that question is then why? CPC forecasts methods clearly mimic the GFS. Latest CPC from today is clearly using 12Z GFS compared to yday's runs. I'am sure they use other methods, but heavily dependent on GFS. I have also wondered why no name stamp on those CPC outlooks compared to the severe weather maps / winter weather maps / precip maps issued by WPC. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 24, 2021 Report Share Posted October 24, 2021 Today I got some new tulips planted, got some plants cut down, got the lawn mowed, and got the patio cleaned up. I'm ready for a nice soaker. 5 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted October 24, 2021 Report Share Posted October 24, 2021 CPC verification scored using the heidke skill score. The Heidke Skill Score (HSS) compares how often the forecast category correctly match the observed category, over and above the number of correct "hits" expected by chance alone. This score utilizes the number of correct and incorrect category hits. The values range from -50 to 100. A score of 100 indicates a perfect forecast and a score of -50 indicates a perfectly incorrect forecast. Scores greater than 0 indicate improvement compared to a random forecast and indicate skill. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted October 24, 2021 Report Share Posted October 24, 2021 1 hour ago, Mr Marine Layer said: It has been a warm October in Omaha, the vaxxed are still terrified of the unvaxxed, and the climate alarmists should be demanding that we ban SUVs like the Yukon Extra Large. And I’m still living rent free in your head. In fact I’m obviously on your mind so much, you’re now posting and commenting on the thread that’s not even for your part of the country. Something you never did until the politics thread was shut down. Sad. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted October 24, 2021 Report Share Posted October 24, 2021 9 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said: Thats for Eppley 1935-36 to present. For Omaha area pre 1935-36 -- here is the list. Why 1983 is not on the above list is unknown. Clearly official climate was taken at Eppley in 1983. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 24, 2021 Report Share Posted October 24, 2021 1 hour ago, Hawkeye said: Today I got some new tulips planted, got some plants cut down, got the lawn mowed, and got the patio cleaned up. I'm ready for a nice soaker. Speaking of.. GRR snippits: Quote This first system will do just that and have it`s center track near I-80 Monday. It will have a coupled jet, strong mid level FGEN and good isentropic ascent. The GFS ensemble mean is nearly 2 inches for Grand Rapids, just over 2 inches for Kalamazoo. This will be a very windy system as there is a strong pressures gradient between the 1030 mb high near Hudson Bay and the 1000 mb low near Benton Harbor at sunrise Monday. The strong winds will continue into Monday evening. If those kind of qpf numbers materialize, this will be January of '67 "moisture bomb" stuff, and the 2nd mega-storm for SMI in roughly the past month. Ofc, we will lose the tropical remnant contribution when we get into the heart of winter and this would likely be much drier at that point. Still, it's very noteworthy in all my years watching SMI wx that we stand a good chance of seeing that much liquid from a system passing SOUTH of us during the early portion of autumn. There was a strong storm (981mb) in October of 2011 (I see you analog list) that spun in NWOH and delivered 1.2" of qpf driven by serious winds. I remember the TV met commenting how it would've been a serious bliz during winter. Otherwise the list of such events is pretty dang short tbh. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 24, 2021 Report Share Posted October 24, 2021 DTX. OMG, I need one of these during winter. Quote Attention then turns to a strong upper disturbance which will emerge from the central Rockies into the plains tonight and deepen as it tracks east into the southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley from Sunday night into Monday. FGEN forcing will increase in advance of the deepening system with initial rainfall potential expanding into far southern portions of the forecast area Sunday afternoon/evening as moisture transport increases into the area. The preferred location for best FGEN forcing still looks to reside from the I-94 corridor southward into Sunday evening with a gradual drift north into the M- 59 and eventually I-69 corridor on Sunday night as the deepening low pressure encroaches from the west and increasing low level jet leads to an expansion of strengthening FGEN aoa the H85 level as low level front remains well south of the area. Widespread rain will then continue on Monday and expand to include much/all of the forecast area as deformation axis shifts over the region as the center of this low pressure system tracks through the Ohio Valley region. PWAT readings eventually top 1 inch for at least southern portions of the area so expect periods of heavy rain given the widespread upper support/lift that will expand of the region w/ the passage of this system. Northeasterly flow, which will also be on the increase overnight Sunday night, will increase further on Monday as the pressure gradient tightens between this low and sprawling high pressure positioned over Ontario. Wind gusts into the 30 to 35 mph range should be common on Monday with readings closer to 40 or 45 mph immediately downwind of Lake(s) Huron and Erie over the Thumb as well as the far southern reaches of SE Lower Michigan. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted October 24, 2021 Report Share Posted October 24, 2021 I’m in the Ozarks this weekend in far NW Arkansas near a small town called Garfield. Gorgeous weather here. Highs were well into the 70s today maybe even hit 80. Very little wind as well. Can’t say I’m looking forward to the 40s I’ll be coming back home to tomorrow. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 24, 2021 Report Share Posted October 24, 2021 @ClintonKeep an eye on the sky tomorrow for severe weather. Though it looks like the storms could form a tad east of you. Nevertheless, stay alert! 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 24, 2021 Report Share Posted October 24, 2021 24 minutes ago, jaster220 said: DTX. OMG, I need one of these during winter. This would be a 1 to 2 footer for us! My area is expected to get more than 2inches of rainfall outta this storm system (2.15 to be exact). 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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