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October 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Temps are dropping like a rock imby. Already down to 40F under crystal clear skies and most importantly calm winds. Lows should bottom out at 32F or slightly lower. Tbh, I would not be surprised if some areas fall into the upper 20s.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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15 minutes ago, Niko said:

Temps are dropping like a rock imby. Already down to 40F under crystal clear skies and most importantly calm winds. Lows should bottom out at 32F or slightly lower. Tbh, I would not be surprised if some areas fall into the upper 20s.

Trees are ready to be triggered. Should be great.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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13 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Will do. Those will be big storms in central Missouri, they are forecasted to get going right over me.

image.png.28926834285c0f1ea8745d2d4ee4ee6c.png

Its gonna get wild tomorrow at yby. Some of those storms could produce tornadoes and very large hail.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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3 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

And I’m still living rent free in your head. In fact I’m obviously on your mind so much, you’re now posting and commenting on the thread that’s not even for your part of the country. Something you never did until the politics thread was shut down.

Sad.🤡🤡🤡

I don't think the politics thread was shut down. Fred just hid the Off Topic boards from the Team Qwerty people - you, me, and Sparky.

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Alright, alright....it's about showtime...convection starting to blow up right along the IA/MO border and producing some drenching training storms.  Flood Watches hoisted from near @OttumwaSnomow in SE IA/IL/N IN.  Gotta say, this storm track and overall intensity reminds me of the GHD II Blizzard back in Feb '15.  There have been similar system as such but that one strikes me as one that could be used as a reference point.  Check out this link below...the precip totals look eerily similar.

(https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/winter_storm_summaries/event_reviews/2015/Southwest_Northeast_WinterStorm_Jan2015.pdf)

Check this out...I mean, how close can you get???  Banana HP to the north, SLP right over KC and then the backside Lake Effect...I'll see you soon again, I'm sure...

image.png

 

 

image.png

 

SLP tracks over N IN into NW OH back then....models forecasting a nearly identical location!  Fascinating stuff right there...

 

image.png

 

image.png

 

 

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8 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Thats for Eppley 1935-36 to present. For Omaha area pre 1935-36 -- here is the list. Why 1983 is not on the above list is unknown. Clearly official climate was taken at Eppley in 1983.image.png.2bdfd41cf673c07fe3756ce2113199cc.png

I have reached out to Omaha NWS as to why / what is going on with 1983 not being included in the Eppley data per my connections with NWS in DSM.. Probably something I'am not aware of.  But it's odd they would not include 1983 in Eppley data. I will post a follow up if/when i hear back.

 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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It is foggy and 35 here at my house. I went outside and there is no frost here in my neighborhood. However, at GRR they report a temperature of 31 with freezing fog. There was yet another 0.13″ of rain fall here yesterday most of that came in a heavy lake effect rain shower.

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So far this morning the rain shield kinda hit a wall around Cedar Rapids.  We will have to wait for a better surge later.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Small line of thunderstorms pushing through this morning has been nice to wake up to.  Looking ahead to this afternoon both the 3km NAM and HRRR have a strong line of storms to my east near hwy 65.  I wouldn't be surprised if the SPC shifts both the slight risk and enhanced risk further east today which is fine with me.  I don't want my football interrupted by some D**n tornado.😄  @OmahaSnowFan north central MO between Marshal and Moberly might be a good chasing spot today.

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This is from Gary's blog this morning discussing todays storm and the monster of a storm showing up mid-week.  Exciting times ahead, also of note is that LRC cycles in La Nina years tend to be shorter typically less than 52 days.

It has snowed in three straight Octobers, and this storm is the type of storm that can do it, but it will be way too warm in this first LRC cycle. When this part of the pattern cycles back through in December, it may very well be a major snowstorm. So, remember these two storm systems as they are in this year's cycling pattern that has started out rather fascinating.

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Small line of thunderstorms pushing through this morning has been nice to wake up to.  Looking ahead to this afternoon both the 3km NAM and HRRR have a strong line of storms to my east near hwy 65.  I wouldn't be surprised if the SPC shifts both the slight risk and enhanced risk further east today which is fine with me.  I don't want my football interrupted by some D**n tornado.😄  @OmahaSnowFan north central MO between Marshal and Moberly might be a good chasing spot today.

I’m thinking the same thing and staying closer to the warm front

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

D**n, the lake is going to be rocking....50+mph wind gusts and waves up to 16 Feet!  Yikes!  @jaster220, is this what you were looking for???

1.png

2.png

 

Tom buddy, you read my mind. Over night I was thinking about Niko's comment that this would be a 1-2 footer around Detroit (which is rare air historically speaking). Then I thought, wait a minute, they actually did get that size of storm (now #3 all time) with GHD-2's 16.7" total. I was like "oh, this would be GHD-2 with winds from the bliz of '99". Boom! Great minds arrive at the same point.

EDIT:  Like how "later forecasts may increase wind gusts"!

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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6 hours ago, Tom said:

Alright, alright....it's about showtime...convection starting to blow up right along the IA/MO border and producing some drenching training storms.  Flood Watches hoisted from near @OttumwaSnomow in SE IA/IL/N IN.  Gotta say, this storm track and overall intensity reminds me of the GHD II Blizzard back in Feb '15.  There have been similar system as such but that one strikes me as one that could be used as a reference point.  Check out this link below...the precip totals look eerily similar.

(https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/winter_storm_summaries/event_reviews/2015/Southwest_Northeast_WinterStorm_Jan2015.pdf)

Check this out...I mean, how close can you get???  Banana HP to the north, SLP right over KC and then the backside Lake Effect...I'll see you soon again, I'm sure...

image.png

 

 

image.png

 

SLP tracks over N IN into NW OH back then....models forecasting a nearly identical location!  Fascinating stuff right there...

 

image.png 

 

image.png

 

 

Ikr? Deja-vu all over again. Per your Euro graphic tho, I think this is poised to deliver even more qpf hence my reference to the "moisture bomb" that was January of '67 when 10:1 ratios delivered 28" of snow on 2.8" of liquid at Battle Creek. This would have record book ingredients for sure were it winter. Interesting how another storm that same year (11-22-15) was yet another W to E big dog. #wildstuff

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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LOL

Apparently we had some dense citizens in these communities earlier

 

2021-10-24 LOL.PNG

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Marshall airport was at or below freezing for a solid 6 hrs overnight, so first freeze in the bag and colors can commence in earnest. Meanwhile over here in the banana belt of western Motown, we barely managed 36F (KDTW) very briefly. Some HI effects due to the concrete no doubt. Hafta find some more rural obs just to my west as it likely was cooler. I know north of Ann Arbor already hit the upper 30s twice.

 

 

2021-10-24 KRMY 1st Freeze.PNG

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Tom buddy, you read my mind. Over night I was thinking about Niko's comment that this would be a 1-2 footer around Detroit (which is rare air historically speaking). Then I thought, wait a minute, they actually did get that size of storm (now #3 all time) with GHD-2's 16.7" total. I was like "oh, this would be GHD-2 with winds from the bliz of '99". Boom! Great minds arrive at the same point.

EDIT:  Like how "later forecasts may increase wind gusts"!

Exactly!  Haha, I was looking at the wind comment as well.  The rain will be blowing sideways.  Good day to chill at home, eat soup (that I just finished) and watch some football.  Enjoy the storm!

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The GFS has been locked into the mid to late week system for days.  The UK and Euro have been flopping north and south, but came back north last night.

The GFS is showing solid rain here for 48 straight hours as the big upper low sits and spins.  The EastPac hurricane moisture gets pulled up into this system.

qpf_048h.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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GRR's early am AFD by one of their least enthusiastic mets is lame sh*t I could've written.

Quote
.DISCUSSION...(Today through next Saturday)
Issued at 308 AM EDT Sun Oct 24 2021

Heavy rain event across southern Lower Michigan tonight into
Monday. QPF over 2 inches possible across southern zones with an
inch or more across the central forecast area.

Plains cyclogenesis occurring as a shortwave trough moves out of
the larger scale troughing across the western CONUS. Surface low
tracks south of Lower Michigan tonight into Monday with an area
of strong mid-level warm advection and frontogenesis moving
across our area. There is some elevated instability as well along
and north of the surface warm front so embedded convection is
possible across the far southern zones overnight, which would
enhance rainfall rates/totals.

Meanwhile, DTX way out-performs and treats the system with it's due. Was always the other way around. The world has flipped.

Quote
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 AM EDT Sun Oct 24 2021

DISCUSSION...

A relatively long duration rain event is forecasted for Southeast
Michigan late today and Monday as a strong area of low pressure
tracks from the Central Plains to the western basin of Lake Erie.

A strong potential vorticity anomaly ejecting into the lee of the
Rocky Mountains has resulted in spin cyclogenesis with a 998mb
surface low in far SW KS. Models have been extremely consistent in
forecasting a very dynamic system across the Midwest today/tonight as
the strong upper level dynamics shift eastward. One of the most
notable aspects of the forecast data has been with regards to the
degree/strength of the deep tropospheric frontogenesis that will
occur in the eastern flank of the system. The warm/thetae advection
appears to occur more as a step function with a series of warm
advection surges.

 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The Canadian is a bit farther west with the heavy rain Wed/Thu.

qpf_048h.us_mw.png

Update:  The UK is even farther west than this, showing 3" of rain in a north-sound band through Omaha.

At this point, I have to think the GFS may be pushing the trough eastward too quickly and the other models are right in holding it back west a bit longer and then wrapping up the upper low farther south.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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25 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The Canadian is a bit farther west with the heavy rain Wed/Thu.

qpf_048h.us_mw.png

Update:  The UK is even farther west than this, showing 3" of rain in a north-sound band through Omaha.

At this point, I have to think the GFS may be pushing the trough eastward too quickly and the other models are right in holding it back west a bit longer and then wrapping up the upper low farther south.

I agree and wow what a storm.  It's hard to imagine another storm in the pattern impacting a larger area than this one.

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Over an inch at LNK so far. Probably a little less in SE Lincoln, but currently heaviest rain of the day. I wouldn't be surprised to exceed 2". 

Edit: Wow absolute downpour. You would think this is a July storm with less thunder, except it's October and 48 degrees

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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12 hours ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

I don't think the politics thread was shut down. Fred just hid the Off Topic boards from the Team Qwerty people - you, me, and Sparky.

Can confirm, you all were being atrociously annoying and he blocked you from the thread. It's very much still up and rolling, albeit with more level heads now.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Rain is coming and it will pour that's for sure. Temps are holding in the low 50s.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Can you picture this w cold air around during Winter here in SMI how and what the outlook would be......

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
418 AM EDT Sun Oct 24 2021

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-250830-
Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-
St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
418 AM EDT Sun Oct 24 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A long duration rainfall event is expected Sunday afternoon through
Monday evening. The heaviest rainfall totals of 2 inches or more
will be possible from I-94 southward.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Windy conditions, gusts of 35 to 45 mph, are expected along the Lake
Huron shoreline Monday and Monday night. A Lakeshore Flood Advisory
is in effect from 4 AM Monday through 8 AM Tuesday. Refer to latest
Lakeshore Hazard Message for more details.
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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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5 hours ago, Clinton said:

This is from Gary's blog this morning discussing todays storm and the monster of a storm showing up mid-week.  Exciting times ahead, also of note is that LRC cycles in La Nina years tend to be shorter typically less than 52 days.

It has snowed in three straight Octobers, and this storm is the type of storm that can do it, but it will be way too warm in this first LRC cycle. When this part of the pattern cycles back through in December, it may very well be a major snowstorm. So, remember these two storm systems as they are in this year's cycling pattern that has started out rather fascinating.

I know what the southern end of this psttern is capable of, too. Let's get this party started, is all I can say. I've been ready for 4 years. Lol. I'm not calling off my calls for this to be a monster winter here. The first of a generation of them.

Not all mega winters, but an era of real winters.

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26 minutes ago, Niko said:

Can you picture this w cold air around during Winter here in SMI how and what the outlook would be......

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
418 AM EDT Sun Oct 24 2021

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-250830-
Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-
St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
418 AM EDT Sun Oct 24 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A long duration rainfall event is expected Sunday afternoon through
Monday evening. The heaviest rainfall totals of 2 inches or more
will be possible from I-94 southward.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Windy conditions, gusts of 35 to 45 mph, are expected along the Lake
Huron shoreline Monday and Monday night. A Lakeshore Flood Advisory
is in effect from 4 AM Monday through 8 AM Tuesday. Refer to latest
Lakeshore Hazard Message for more details.

Gordon Lightfoot, anyone? Yikes!

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My gauge has almost an inch now and there's plenty more on the way... about 12 hours worth.  Man, I'd love to bottle this system and bring it out again in December or January.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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