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October 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom
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We’ve had nothing but wind all day.  
40 mph gusty wind.  Enough.  
Temps going down.  Could see 44* tonight.  . 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Mega-Dog:

1951233226_2021-10-256pm.jpg.43882179a2e2cc2065b5af67d5ef966a.jpg

 

 

"hold my beer!.."

1956348917_2021-10-287pm.jpg.7f6502665cb2f2d03cdcfb257c5edc0b.jpg

 

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Wouldn't it be a kick if we get into winter and it's just drier than a popcorn fart!

That would be a real stab bud! Iirc, it has happened in previous years and has cause a lot of disappointment during the colder months. I sometimes wonder that if getting such great storm tracks now is something that would be bad for our Winter down the road.

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Final Snowfall as of today July 2022 is: 47.1" Detroit Metro Area.

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Here at my house I recorded 0.23" of rain fall. The overnight low here was 50 and it is still 50 at this time with light rain falling. This has been a very warm and wet October and it will be a top ten warmest at all locations. At this time it is the warmest at Muskegon with a mean of 59.1. also the warmest at Lansing with a mean of 58.6 At Holland it is the 2nd warmest October with a mean of 59.1 the record is a reported 61.1 in 1947. At Grand Rapids it is down the list at 7th place with a mean of 57.8. in case anyone was wondering 1947 was a very warm October area wide. Snow fall for the winter of 1947/48 was Grand Rapids 64.4, Muskegon 70.3, Holland 71.0 and Lansing 50.0. January and March were the snowiest months at all locations. That is with November thru March temperatures all being well below average. While that winter was much colder than average snow fall was below average.

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Its a rainy morning out there w temps holding in the 50s.

Hard to believe all of SEMI was in a moderate drought last Spring. Some parts in the severe cat as well. Then in June, the floodgates opened up and that was it ever since. Wow how Ma Nature can change things in a heart beat.

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Final Snowfall as of today July 2022 is: 47.1" Detroit Metro Area.

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0.81" total here, at the high end of the model range.

My October total is 6.96".  That easily makes it the second wettest October since 2007.  My wettest was 8.35" in 2009.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Finished with 2.12" of rain from this system.

TOP has been warm and very wet this month officially sitting at +3.8 temp anomaly and 5.09" total rain (194% of 10/28 normal). It looks like we will have no measurable October snow this year breaking our streak of four consecutive Octobers with measurable snow.

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  • 21-22 Total Snowfall: 21.1" (123% of seasonal normal 17.1" )
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We’ll, the weather definitely turned. 70’s high this week, 60’s next week.  
yesterday was unbearably windy with gust 30-35 mph.  Still windy but not as bad today.  
I do believe Fall has burst through the front door! 
 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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42 minutes ago, Niko said:

https://s.w-x.co/1029-coastal-flood-primary.jpg

Daaammmmmnnnnn!

I'm liking this huge slow system. Haven't seen this since idk when?

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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8 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I'm liking this huge slow system. Haven't seen this since idk when?

I was trying to think of when i last ever saw anything like this, early 1990s probably. For a modified (cold-cored) N. Pac low being the source of this thing, its ridiculously impressive.

"Old school" storm. An actual weather "system" proper, I guess.

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11 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

I was trying to think of when i last ever saw anything like this, early 1990s probably. For a modified (cold-cored) N. Pac low being the source of this thing, its ridiculously impressive.

"Old school" storm. An actual weather "system" proper, I guess.

I see the frost advisory goes down your way tonight.  Are you in it?

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Always nice to see sub-1000mb baro..

 

image.png.8d1b292847ebf54231af7d7e6b4841d8.png

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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W. Wayne cnty reporting about 0.9" of rain so far. Easily meeting forecast amounts on the higher end. I do like that facet of the new LRC. Remember the days when qpf or snow totals could be miles off target??

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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8 hours ago, jaster220 said:

I'm liking this huge slow system. Haven't seen this since idk when?

What is really intriguing about this pattern is NNE Flow for days around these parts...God I hope we have cold air seeding into the pattern when these storms roll on through!  ORD has picked up close to 4" since last Sun which is a record for this period.  

It's been a soggy, windy and wet week around here and I'm looking forward to a sunnier and warmer (avg) Halloween Sunday.  I should have plenty of yardwork on the agenda before the colder week ahead next week.  The leaves are showing more color around town and prob reaching peak this coming week with several sub freezing nights ahead.

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

What is really intriguing about this pattern is NNE Flow for days around these parts...God I hope we have cold air seeding into the pattern when these storms roll on through!  ORD has picked up close to 4" since last Sun which is a record for this period.  

It's been a soggy, windy and wet week around here and I'm looking forward to a sunnier and warmer (avg) Halloween Sunday.  I should have plenty of yardwork on the agenda before the colder week ahead next week.  The leaves are showing more color around town and prob reaching peak this coming week with several sub freezing nights ahead.

Some brilliant colors showing up when I was about ten miles north in a more wooded region yesterday. Ofc, it was cloudy rainy and windy, less than ideal viewing conditions.

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Today's 00z and 06z GFS were about 5-6 degrees too warm for this morning in KC.  That's a significant (though not huge) miss for a 6-12 hour forecast.   It's running about 5-10 degrees warmer for lows this upcoming week compared to what the NWS is forecasting for our area.  Our NWS office is usually pretty conservative on winter weather.

Also, the S word made it into our forecast for the first time this season.  But I seriously doubt it will materialize.  

KC Weather.jpg

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Gorgeous Day. I’ll take a couple months of this!  
77* calm, clear, low of 55*. 
My God. Just perfection!

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Yeah, Omaha.  Texas is in the same mode. However these are the last of my summer English roses.  .  

11E42A5E-C62F-4DDB-B7BB-02050905D76F.jpeg

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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3 hours ago, Clinton said:

I decided to get out on the lake and do some fishing one last time.20211030_111323.thumb.jpg.3fbf1f52f482de2a70edca60025b0074.jpg20211030_111017.thumb.jpg.fff1acc3acdb433f147851706c6183e4.jpg20211030_111712.thumb.jpg.760b15aafa87cf6cc7d1e35bb1ae0a66.jpg

Awesome. Did ya catch anything decent?! My favorite fish to eat is a shark. No bones to worry about. Add some nice olive oil, oregano, lemon, a little salt and pepper and you are set to go. Oh, and a salad on the side is a must. 😃

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Final Snowfall as of today July 2022 is: 47.1" Detroit Metro Area.

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1 minute ago, Niko said:

Awesome. Did ya catch anything decent?! My favorite fish to eat is a shark. No bones to worry about. Add some nice, olive oil, oregano, lemon, a little salt and pepper and you are set to go. Oh, and a salad on the side is a must. 😃

Just catfish and we did ok, the water was murkey from the recent rains.

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What a gloomy day it was today. Cloudy and dreary saids it all. That pesky low continued to provide those N. Easterly winds. Tomorrow its expected to get a lot nicer, w lots of sunshine as that low begins to move away from SMI. Temps did manged to stay in the low 50s at best today, which is considered to be average for this time of the year.

 

Note: next week features a strong CF that will usher in the coldest air of the season thus far. Temps here imby and a lot of other areas will bottom down in the 20s for nighttime lows. Highs not budging outta the 40s for the remainder of the week. A few snowshowers are also possible on Tuesday as well. Should be fun to see them fly in the air for the first time this Autumn season. Ahhhhh, the holidays just around the corner.

NOAA:

Conditions throughout the upcoming work week generally defined by
larger scale mean troughing. This sets the stage for the first
meaningful stretch of temperatures solidly below average this fall.
Deep layer westerly flow for the Monday period as the local area
holds just south of the greater height falls. A modestly mixed
profile with some degree of insolation potential affords the
`warmest` day of the upcoming week - temps invof 50 degrees.
Standard diurnal uptick in gustiness for the afternoon. Renewed cold
air advection emerges Monday night and Tuesday as more substantial
height falls commence. No real signal for meaningful precipitation
this period yet, but a cold, cyclonic flow with some degree of
moisture flux off lake Michigan may offer some potential by late
Tuesday into Tuesday night. Temperatures during the midweek period a
solid 10 degrees or more below normal for early November.
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Final Snowfall as of today July 2022 is: 47.1" Detroit Metro Area.

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Happy Halloween!  We are tracking one of the seasons strongest CF's of the year, albeit a dry one, it will provide a dry and enjoyable day for our Trick O' Treater's.  Should be a delightful day to do some yardwork, although, a bit breezy over here.  Make it a great day everyone!

 

image.png

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There is some fog in my area the overnight low and current temperature is 37. This year it looks to be a typical  Halloween as the average H/L for today is 54/38. The record high is 79 set in 1950 the coldest maximum was a cold 32 in 1917. The record low is 20 set in 1988. There have been total of 10 years when the high reached 70 or better on Halloween but it has been a while since that has happened the last time was in 1981 with a high of 70. There has only been 4 years with more than a trace of snow fall with the most being 1.5" on the cold day in 1917. also of the 4 years with more than a trace two have been recently with 0.4" in 2017 and 0.1" in 2019. There have been 10 years with a trace of snow fall the most recent were in 2012 and 2014. Last year the high low was 53/25

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BTW October 2021 will end up being the 7th warmest at Grand Rapids at least the 3rd warmest at Lansing too close to call but either 1st or 2nd at Muskegon and the 2nd warmest at Holland. I will toss up the finial numbers tomorrow and I am sure the NWS will do the same.

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Last weather post of October for me.  My favorite month! 🥰

High of 80 today. Expecting the same mañana.  Low of 52. 
 

Tuesday will bring rain and a drop in temps. High of 69. Then Wednesday a High of 59. So we’re looking quite normal right now.  
 

Not a lot of color yet, but that’s November.  Look quick! Our Fall is brief!!🍁

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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My Oct report west of Ottumwa  iA;

Rainfall 9.40"

High  82

Low   32

Was very warm  month! No killing  frost entire month.   First half was a continuation  of the dry period  since early August.  But  ton if rain after the 15th! At least 6 true washout days!  I seemed to catch more than most until the final event that   hit further  west. 9.4 inches in Oct is by far wettest  Oct Ive seen in Iowa, however  i believe 2009 was  similar.  There was little runoff! Our creek barely  rose throughout  Oct.  With the  warm wet end of Oct were still mowing lawns into Nov which  is a rarity.

 

 

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This month ended up being the epitome of "endless summer" for ORD.  Indeed, it was a very warm month overall as it ended up being the 9th warmest/12th wettest and continued the streak of AN months from the summer.  In fact, the last 3 consecutive months from Aug through Oct, ORD ended up ranking in the Top 10 warmest on record.  

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7 hours ago, Tom said:

This month ended up being the epitome of "endless summer" for ORD.  Indeed, it was a very warm month overall as it ended up being the 9th warmest/12th wettest and continued the streak of AN months from the summer.  In fact, the last 3 consecutive months from Aug through Oct, ORD ended up ranking in the Top 10 warmest on record.  

Easy call to say that was nothing short of a ridiculously warm open to autumn up there for sure. Funny the number of days you folks up north have compared or beat my temperature in the last 6 months, but especially in October.

"Perfect Autumn Month" is how I'll describe my October 2021.

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