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October 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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There was a Tornado Warning at 2 today for a confirmed tornado about 5 miles west of my place in Troy Kansas. The cell passed about 1 mile north of me but I'm pretty sure the tornado lifted shortly after forming. Went outside when it passed and it felt like May outside.  Now it's misting and feels like November. What a storm system. Crazy October weather. I sure hope this stuff comes around in December and we can get a blizzard out of it

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There's a report of 3.8" in NE Lincoln, and that was well before it even finished. Closer to 2" on the SE side. I was a little surprised because I was thinking it wouldn't do much and Wednesday would be our better chance. Not that rain is super exciting or anything, but the past 6 weeks have probably been the most boring stretch of weather since I came here 4 years ago. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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nearing 2.6" at KDSM and at mby 20 mins W of town. Easily going to reach 3" as it .25"+ hour rates that look last at least several more hours.  Add in an expected 1-2" later in week and the precip deficit that was 11" + entering OCT will have been cut in half. Daily record set for the day and easily will reach the 3rd wettest OCT daY on record. image.png.4b81261c42a53b51053b5874ef0fd4ed.png

 

 

I will dig into wettest 4-5 day stretch if the mid week system drops what it looks like it will.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Just crunched a few #'s on Warm/wet Octobers and see if there is any correlation to the following winters. I could find no years that matched with back-back to La Nina (however the 1880's are not listed in my Nina data)

I used an avg mean temp for OCT of 53.8F which is the avg of 142 years at DSM

 

#1-   47-48" OCT precip- 6.86" (3rd wettest)    Avg OCT temp 62.4   +8.6 compared to 142 year mean (2nd warmest record) Seasonal Snowfall 29.8"

#2-   2007-08 OCT precip- 5.49 (9th wettest)   Avg OCT temp 57.2 +3.4     Seasonal Snowfall 58.5" (snowiest FEB at the time)

#3  1882-83   OCT precip 5.94" (7th wettest)  Avg OCT temp 56.1   +2.3   Seasonal Snowfall  MISSING.  But a very cold JAN/FEB

Take it for what's its' worth.  All three winters were below avg in temps.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Whomever called for the TOR threat to be further east was quite accurate. Looks like S. MO getting raked by after dark twisters and several small communities under TOR Emergencies. Scariest of scary wx night-time twisters! Hopefully most are safely sheltering.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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3 hours ago, Madtown said:

Almost ready! Christmas lights up later this week and snowblower on the tractor on Sunday. Then bring it!

20211024_161204.jpg

20211024_161135.jpg

That's going to look magical once Winter settles in...another version of "Field of Dreams"...If you Build it, They will Come...btw, do you have lighting up in the trees??  

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Local wx app says close to 2.5" of rain has fallen with more to come throughout the day.  This has been the multi-faceted system as now the winds are gusty out of the NE.  Finally, a real Autumn storm that has targeted the MW/Lower Lakes region.  The furnace has been kicking on more often than not overnight.  IMO, this week of wx will go down to me as the week when "endless summer "  flipped into real autumn.

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Just as I was pulling up to my driveway a minute ago, I saw this huge flash of lighting!  This storm is dynamic...rain is blowing sideways, leaves blowing off the trees, branches everywhere...man, what a storm!  Not to mention, but this defo band has held together all the way from OMA/LNK and not letting down.  My curiosity keeps me wondering what this storm would have done in the colder months ahead...what # storm is this so far this season that has delivered such dynamics???  I think its gotta be 3 or 4...and we ain't done yet for the week!

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I finished with 1.87".  The defo band underperformed for Cedar Rapids as heavier rain kept rotating around us.  A station down in Tiffin (Bud's location) is reporting about 2.9".

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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44 minutes ago, Tom said:

Just as I was pulling up to my driveway a minute ago, I saw this huge flash of lighting!  This storm is dynamic...rain is blowing sideways, leaves blowing off the trees, branches everywhere...man, what a storm!  Not to mention, but this defo band has held together all the way from OMA/LNK and not letting down.  My curiosity keeps me wondering what this storm would have done in the colder months ahead...what # storm is this so far this season that has delivered such dynamics???  I think its gotta be 3 or 4...and we ain't done yet for the week!

4 of them, 6th significant storm to effect the middle of the country since Oct 6th and number 7 is on it's way.  The storm you predict for the first week of Nov, could be another slow moving soaker with a cold component to it.

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Man, its very stormy outside. Radar looks loaded w moisture. I hope Ma Nature develops these storms, come Winter.

 

 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I did not check on my rainfall amounts so far, but it is definitely more than 1.50" and counting. Mby should receive b4 its all set and done near 2.50"+.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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So far in this rain event I have recorded 0.74" of rain fall. The mean for October at Grand Rapids is now down to 59.7 so while the month should end up well above average it will NOT be a record warm October at GR. While the official low at GRR made it down to 31 it has not gotten that cold here at my house yet as the coldest it has been is 35. So how does that official low of 31 stack up for Grand Rapids? Well it was just in 2017 when the first low of 32 and 31 happened on October 26th so while later than the long term average not so much in the last 10 to 15 years. At this time there is rain falling and a temperature of 45 here.

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20 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

Can confirm, you all were being atrociously annoying and he blocked you from the thread. It's very much still up and rolling, albeit with more level heads now.

I'm sure the 3 of you still in that thread are all having a good time now. I forget who the guy was, but ask him when Donnie is going to be reinstated bc I'm getting a little impatient waiting for the celebration.

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Ended up at 2.69" IMBY. Looking at radar, thought we'd for sure hit 3"+, but the heavier storms that kept on redeveloping stayed south of us from Lincoln on east, so ended with mainly just light to moderate rain after we hit 2".

I chased in Missouri yesterday and probably something I won't do again, unless it's a slam dunk tornado outbreak. Initially wanted to play out in the warm sector and just south of the warm front so I drove to Columbia. Those storms along a prefontal trough or convergence storm all lined out though. Meanwhile I saw the storms form right to the east of the low pressure and they looked to be lining out really fast near and north of St. Joseph, so even though they had a couple of tornado warnings with them very quickly, I didn't make a break for them right away.

After a while being near and just east of Columbia, I checked back on the storms and saw now just 2 individual cells remained of the line and they were both tornado warned. I made a break back to the west figuring this will work out since I'm heading in the general direction of home and the storms were moving at me at 40+ mph so I'll get to them quickly. 

I did get there just around the time Purdin was being hit, but bc of the terrain in that area, plus it being a rain wrapped tornado, I couldn't see anything. That's some of the most winding, hilly, forested area I've ever chased in before. 30 mph almost seems too fast to drive safely on those roads!

I called the chase off about 6p and made it home back around 1030p.

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4 hours ago, Clinton said:

4 of them, 6th significant storm to effect the middle of the country since Oct 6th and number 7 is on it's way.  The storm you predict for the first week of Nov, could be another slow moving soaker with a cold component to it.

2nd Mega-Dog for SEMI. Oh winter, where art thou??

 

2021-09-22 2pm Surf.jpg

2021-10-25 12pm Surf.jpg

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

LOT updated their wind map...yup, it certainly paints that kinda picture outside right about now.  Holy smokes is it gusty!

Oct 25th LOT Storm_Wind Update.png

Winds so far have been lack-luster, especially vs the Equinox storm. Hopefully we will get in on the act before this clears the Lakes.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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49 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Winds so far have been lack-luster, especially vs the Equinox storm. Hopefully we will get in on the act before this clears the Lakes.

I’m sure they’ll kick up once the SLP tracks just south of your area.  That’s about when our winds increased.

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6 hours ago, jaster220 said:

2nd Mega-Dog for SEMI. Oh winter, where art thou??

 

2021-09-22 2pm Surf.jpg

2021-10-25 12pm Surf.jpg

Picture that green color over our area blue instead. Oh boy.......look-out!!!!

 

Btw: that first surface map looks so perfect for an epic Winterstorm here in SMI.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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7 hours ago, Tom said:

I’m sure they’ll kick up once the SLP tracks just south of your area.  That’s about when our winds increased.

Looks like the gusts topped out in the mid-30s mph late in the day here. Not the 40+ we saw in Sept. That's what made the Equinox storm such a rarity for time of year and non-tropical at that.

Nice storm nonetheless and seriously could've been yuuge in winter.

Seems we finished right at the forecast if not slightly better.

KDTW = 2.12"

KYIP = 2.10"

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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ORD ended up with 2.61" as the official tally.....it was the widespread soaking rain the region needed to eat away from the drought deficit.  Nevertheless, It was a fun storm to track...the winds were esp strong early morning into the afternoon.  I'm definitely going to have a lot of yardwork to do this weekend and I'm looking forward to a dry and sunny weekend.  Perfect conditions for the kiddo's Trick or Treating on Sunday.  Now, that may not be the case for those members out west and north as they'll be tracking a rather strong CF ushering down from Canada as we proceed towards the last month of met Autumn.  Is November going to balance out the very warm Sept/Oct?  Prob not a complete wash in temps but I'm almost certain its going to feel like the seasons across the MW/GL's region.

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

Boy, did that turn out to be one heckova day for MO...quite the number of tornado reports... @Clintonany near your area?  I read that  @clintbeed1993had one track near his place.  Been quite a while since you've experienced an outbreak like this.

image.png

The closes one was just east of Sedalia so not real close but the KC survey team has confirmed 5 touchdowns in the area.  The largest was an EF2 near Purdin, Mo.

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2 hours ago, Clinton said:

Lots of storms means lots of opportunities and KC and Iowa folks are about to find themselves in the comma head of another major storm.

Tab2FileL.png

this storm is taking the perfect track with the area under the comma head fully over our area. Cant wait to see how this storm turns out in the next 2-3 future cycles! #futureblizzard

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