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October 2021 Observations and Discussion


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9 hours ago, someweatherdude said:

This would be a record high temp for KC.   Does anyone know whether the GFS now has an extra warm bias?  It's forecast high temps are running pretty consistently above our local NWS office's forecast highs.    gfs_T2m_us_32.thumb.png.56bfda47befc3d0be496d2f3d76f7073.png  

For our area the GFS has been 5-8 degrees to warm for over a month in the mid to long range.

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8 hours ago, Tom said:

It has been having a tremendous warm bias this entire past summer.  Some posters out in NE mentioned how it consistently showed 100's D5 and beyond that never materialized.  Take it with a grain of salt.

Yeah GFS consistently forecasted 110+ for Lincoln and I think I saw as high as 117-118. Summer max was 103. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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After a dry and less humid week last week, yesterday's rise in DP's was noticeable and it felt warm in the sun when it popped out on occasion.  Temps maxed out at 80F.  Still felt like summer was hangin' on...and yes, the A/C was on yesterday.  While I don't mind having the A/C on, I'm just worried to see how expensive our natural gas bills will be this winter...that's a whole other story.  On a side note, I did also notice a lot more trees changing color and falling off in the wind yesterday.  I'm def getting the fall vibes.

 

 

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The Euro and Gfs are showing a week cut-off system mid week that drifts NW from the gulf region. Interesting system as it may be part of the new pattern and something that later on this Winter could produce significant precip for the Eastern half of the forum.

image.thumb.png.2571265f09610dea369509be6e904331.png

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26 minutes ago, Clinton said:

The Euro and Gfs are showing a week cut-off system mid week that drifts NW from the gulf region. Interesting system as it may be part of the new pattern and something that later on this Winter could produce significant precip for the Eastern half of the forum.

image.thumb.png.2571265f09610dea369509be6e904331.png

Gulf Low’s are always fun to track, esp with a massive banana HP to the N.  Liking the start of this new pattern and the wave train of cutters setting up later next week into mid month.

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Euro is now picking up the behemoth of a storm that GFS has been showing in clown range. It's easy to shrug that off, but the seasons have to change at SOME point. This might just be the thing to do it. Looks good on ensembles, too.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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Lol... Take a look at e20.

GEFS 1.png

GEFS 2.png

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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34 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

My reaction every time I scroll through GFS slides so far this fall (saucy language):  

 

I saw that movie when it came out in theaters! Lol

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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18 hours ago, Tom said:

In other news, across the "pond" in France this is one heckova water spout!

 

 

EF5 spout woah!

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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 loving "summer in October". Perfect 75F without the drastic sun vs shade contrast you see during true summer. Rain and even a TOR warning a bit north this evening reminded me of 2007. Other warm Octobers like '98, '04, '10 also led to fun winters here so let's keep this rolling. took a drive around the parks & lakes region west of me and trees are certainly looking like the season. even a few brilliant ones in marshy spots.

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Hopefully e20 wins out. 

GEFS 3.png

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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6 hours ago, jaster220 said:

 loving "summer in October". Perfect 75F without the drastic sun vs shade contrast you see during true summer. Rain and even a TOR warning a bit north this evening reminded me of 2007. Other warm Octobers like '98, '04, '10 also led to fun winters here so let's keep this rolling. took a drive around the parks & lakes region west of me and trees are certainly looking like the season. even a few brilliant ones in marshy spots.

Co-Sign!  Even though yesterday was a bit more cloudy than Sat, I'm enjoying these AN days as daily averages continue on the decline.  As you said, and iirc  both Oct '07 and the 1st half of Nov '07 were warm and then the pendulum flipped a switch.  I'm looking for something similar this year but I'm worried about the cold starting a little earlier in Nov this year which could lead to an early Dec pull back.  Just some early thoughts as we progress through Autumn.  Meanwhile, this coming week showing nothing but 70's and maybe an 80F day this weekend depending on how the storms track tugging up warmer air.  

 

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11 hours ago, jaster220 said:

 loving "summer in October". Perfect 75F without the drastic sun vs shade contrast you see during true summer. Rain and even a TOR warning a bit north this evening reminded me of 2007. Other warm Octobers like '98, '04, '10 also led to fun winters here so let's keep this rolling. took a drive around the parks & lakes region west of me and trees are certainly looking like the season. even a few brilliant ones in marshy spots.

Me too. This type of warm weather in October feels great. Also, why waste cold air now, when its totally useless. Might as well save it when it is cold enough for snow and closer towards the "Holiday Season." I look at this mild weather as an extra month of free Summer. 😉

Tbh, this is strange to get a T.W around this time of the year, especially up here in MI. Wow! I wonder if any damage occurred. In any case, we got soaked last nite, especially here in Macomb.

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Final Snowfall as of today July 2022 is: 47.1" Detroit Metro Area.

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The dry and warm weather looks to continue in KC until at least mid month. May touch 90 again late this week into Saturday. All those rain chances last week starting on Wednesday and ending on Saturday, all missed KC. Not even close....

The LRC based Sept. forecast had predicted the last 10 days of Sept. to be wetter and much cooler. I really needed that forecast to hit, but, the total opposite happened, warm/hot and very dry was what we ended up with. 

 

Maybe we can get hit a few times here with those storms showing up on the GFS. Also, Clinton mentioned that strange ULL drifting NW into MO. tomorrow, maybe we can score a few storms from that here in KC. Looks to be mainly on the MO side. 

 

 

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It's not looking good for the Day 10 system to bring a long-term pattern change. It breaks down the ridge a little bit but not nearly enough to usher in widespread cooler air.

>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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9 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

79.5 here in MBY and almost no wind.

Absolutely gorgeous!

No precip this week so it looks like this all falls next week then.

353DF5F9-9E90-41D2-BA17-E0C4E5C85811.jpeg

Interesting seeing them have so much confidence in that Day 10 storm despite ensembles being iffy on how much moisture it'll have.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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Still very possible that we don't get our first sub-32 temp here in the next two weeks. Depends on how that CO Low tracks. We're well past the average first freeze here and I believe the average first hard freeze is coming up.

I haven't even gotten below 40.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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2 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

Interesting seeing them have so much confidence in that Day 10 storm despite ensembles being iffy on how much moisture it'll have.

GFS trying to wrap in some cold air for ya next week, but no consistency with ensembles yet. Hope ya get your first flakes of the season. 

image.thumb.png.87b189cb4ad083db3260272a598950df.png

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7 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

Still very possible that we don't get our first sub-32 temp here in the next two weeks. Depends on how that CO Low tracks. We're well past the average first freeze here and I believe the average first hard freeze is coming up.

I haven't even gotten below 40.

What's the latest first freeze for you?

 

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5 hours ago, Clinton said:

GFS trying to wrap in some cold air for ya next week, but no consistency with ensembles yet. Hope ya get your first flakes of the season. 

image.thumb.png.87b189cb4ad083db3260272a598950df.png

I probably will, it'd align with the average nicely. It'd be hilarious if I got my first flakes before my first sub-32.

If only this kinda storm would happen in December...

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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25 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

What's the latest first freeze for you?

 

October 19, in 1938. 

Since we haven't had frost yet either, the latest first frost is October 10 in 1905. We'll shatter that at least, before likely (or not if you believe Euro) getting our first frost late next week. We haven't gotten below 40 yet either, October 9 of the same year is the latest first for that. Closely followed by October 7, 2013.

Too early to say if we'll set the latest first freeze record, but first frost and sub-40 are certain.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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While we're at it...

The latest first measurable snow is December 14, 1999. The earliest is September 4, 1903.

>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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46 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Does that storm get cut off late next week? Weird track. 12z GFS has it going due north through the western Dakotas and straight N into Canada. No eastern progression at all.

That's what Euro has had since yesterday too.

>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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1 hour ago, james1976 said:

Does that storm get cut off late next week? Weird track. 12z GFS has it going due north through the western Dakotas and straight N into Canada. No eastern progression at all.

 

39 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

That's what Euro has had since yesterday too.

I wonder if the models are struggling with the pattern change, if not that will be one of the strangest storm tracks I have seen.

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Very good chance that my grandma in Southern California will see way cooler temps to close this week than me.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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1 hour ago, james1976 said:

Has to be part of the new pattern.

But how much will this affect the central US?

I believe that's what becomes the late week storm.

Either way, ensembles aren't showing a long-term pattern change east of the Rockies.

>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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This absolute monster of a ridge out east isn't helping matters.

As long as that's there, Fall never arrives.

500h_anom.conus 1.png

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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I don't know why, but the last couple days I haven't had the best of sleep.  For some reason, I'm getting up way to early but at least I get a solid 4-5 hours of deeper sleep.  Anyone else feeling the same?   Anyway, today is one of those important days in early October as it could be Day 1 of the new LRC.  Boy, is there a LOT going on our wx pattern that is really intriguing.  I've been monitoring the models just like everyone and what excites me is how active this new pattern is starting off.  What is fascinating to me is there will be 4 separate systems to track over the next 5 days across the central Sub, each of which, are progressively stronger compared to the previous system. 

System #1: It starts off with a cut-off ULL coming due N out of the deep south that @Clinton mentioned which is caught up in a Rex Block pattern which I believe will be a big part of the 1st half of the LRC.  In future cycles, if this is indeed system 1, is quite the way to kick of the LRC for @OKwx2k4and those of us near the MW/GL's region.

namconus_z500_vort_us_25.png

 

System #2: Then there is a fast moving wave that will traverse the Rockies which initially slams into central Cali on the 8th.  A weaker piece shears off and tracks across the N Sub over the weekend....

namconus_z500_vort_us_45.png

 

System #3: The models have been back and forth about this one but it appears that the trough which hits CA sorta slows down while an "inside slider" kicks this trough down into the desert SW and ejects out into the TX Panhandle...aka "The Slot"...this system forms into a stronger wave along the trailing CF and cuts NE through the Plains/MW. The models differ how far east it tracks around the 10th/11th period.

gfs_z500_vort_us_24.png 

 

System #4: Finally, in what will likely be the strongest system in this wave train, we will be tracking our seasons first legit Autumn storm.  A powerhouse trough tracks deep into 4 corners region around the 12th.  This is one hellova trough and is a clear signal that we will have big time systems tracking out of the SW this season.  I'm excited for many reasons to see this pattern setting up.  Most importantly, this should bring healthy snows to the mountains and deserts of the SW this winter.  The active Monsoon season was a big indicator to me that this years LRC would feature an active SW Flow.  So, here we are, right at the beginning of this new pattern and its off to a rocking start!

ecmwf_z500a_us_8.png

 

 

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I forgot to mention the system that tracked into the San Diego/SoCal region yesterday which we will see if this is part of the new pattern ( I think it is).  My mother flew into PHX yesterday morning and took a flight path farther south across the Tucson area to avoid the showers/storms that were targeting the typical flight path over the eastern mtn's of AZ.  In essence, this new pattern is really showing an encouraging sign that we will see systems dig deep this cold season until we see periods of ridging which I see coming late month into Nov.  So, we are tracking 5 systems in 5 days???  What a wild pattern.

gfs_z500_vort_us_1.png

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

I don't know why, but the last couple days I haven't had the best of sleep.  For some reason, I'm getting up way to early but at least I get a solid 4-5 hours of deeper sleep.  Anyone else feeling the same?   Anyway, today is one of those important days in early October as it could be Day 1 of the new LRC.  Boy, is there a LOT going on our wx pattern that is really intriguing.  I've been monitoring the models just like everyone and what excites me is how active this new pattern is starting off.  What is fascinating to me is there will be 4 separate systems to track over the next 5 days across the central Sub, each of which, are progressively stronger compared to the previous system. 

System #1: It starts off with a cut-off ULL coming due N out of the deep south that @Clinton mentioned which is caught up in a Rex Block pattern which I believe will be a big part of the 1st half of the LRC.  In future cycles, if this is indeed system 1, is quite the way to kick of the LRC for @OKwx2k4and those of us near the MW/GL's region.

namconus_z500_vort_us_25.png

 

System #2: Then there is a fast moving wave that will traverse the Rockies which initially slams into central Cali on the 8th.  A weaker piece shears off and tracks across the N Sub over the weekend....

namconus_z500_vort_us_45.png

 

System #3: The models have been back and forth about this one but it appears that the trough which hits CA sorta slows down while an "inside slider" kicks this trough down into the desert SW and ejects out into the TX Panhandle...aka "The Slot"...this system forms into a stronger wave along the trailing CF and cuts NE through the Plains/MW. The models differ how far east it tracks around the 10th/11th period.

gfs_z500_vort_us_24.png 

 

System #4: Finally, in what will likely be the strongest system in this wave train, we will be tracking our seasons first legit Autumn storm.  A powerhouse trough tracks deep into 4 corners region around the 12th.  This is one hellova trough and is a clear signal that we will have big time systems tracking out of the SW this season.  I'm excited for many reasons to see this pattern setting up.  Most importantly, this should bring healthy snows to the mountains and deserts of the SW this winter.  The active Monsoon season was a big indicator to me that this years LRC would feature an active SW Flow.  So, here we are, right at the beginning of this new pattern and its off to a rocking start!

ecmwf_z500a_us_8.png

 

 

Exciting foresure!  Seems like it's been 15 years since we've seen storms dig deep into the SW like this.  KC folks the storm showing up on the 10th/11th should put a smile on your face.

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We are back home after spending a week in the Bay City area for my mother in law's funeral. There was 1.35" of rain in the rain gauge when we got home yesterday. We brought some of my mother in laws things home with us so I rented a U haul for that. I left my car up in Linwood so we will be going back up today to pick it up. Up in the Bay City area there is some good color on the trees but the leaves are already falling so not sure how long that will last. And near town on the west side area there is a lot of flooding in the fields and in places the roads were flooded and closed for a while. At this time it is cloudy and 58 here at my house.

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24 minutes ago, westMJim said:

We are back home after spending a week in the Bay City area for my mother in law's funeral. There was 1.35" of rain in the rain gauge when we got home yesterday. We brought some of my mother in laws things home with us so I rented a U haul for that. I left my car up in Linwood so we will be going back up today to pick it up. Up in the Bay City area there is some good color on the trees but the leaves are already falling so not sure how long that will last. And near town on the west side area there is a lot of flooding in the fields and in places the roads were flooded and closed for a while. At this time it is cloudy and 58 here at my house.

May she Rest In Peace 🙏 

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