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October 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom
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Des Moines talking severe potential next week.

The forecast for Tuesday and
especially just beyond the 7 day forecast on Wednesday still looks
interesting as closed upper low develops and lifts into the
Midwest. Won`t go into too many details at this point since it is
still way out west of Alaska, but it likely will be a severe
weather setup somewhere across the region along with very strong
synoptic winds. Stay tuned!
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28 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Has Lezak mentioned that this first system lifting due north out of the gulf is the beginning of the new LRC?

This one is interesting because it's not a dominate feature and it got cut-off in the changing, and blocked off pattern.   I don't know if we'll see this again and Lezak seems much more excited about the storm Sunday night and Monday.

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36 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

happy day 1 of the new LRC everyone!

For those who believe in the LRC at least, lol

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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11 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

you dont think the weather pattern has reoccuring cycles?

No. I think weather does what it wants, when it wants.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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1 hour ago, FAR_Weather said:

No. I think weather does what it wants, when it wants.

I'm somewhere in between you and Gary.  I don't think the LRC can pinpoint weather to the same extent Gary does.  But as much as I've watched winter weather, there are clearly patterns and cycles that set up each year.  There are places where troughs seem to dominate and others where ridges seem to dominate.  Some areas seem to be in the sweet spot for snow and storms each year while others miss out.  The jet stream moves, but seems to also have a default that it likes to keep settling back to. And this all happens in a rough cyclical manner.  But there are so many variables that determining the practical weather at the surface in a specific location on a specific date is still beyond us.  

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4 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

I'm somewhere in between you and Gary.  I don't think the LRC can pinpoint weather to the same extent Gary does.  But as much as I've watched winter weather, there are clearly patterns and cycles that set up each year.  There are places where troughs seem to dominate and others where ridges seem to dominate.  Some areas seem to be in the sweet spot for snow and storms each year while others miss out.  The jet stream moves, but seems to also have a default that it likes to keep settling back to. And this all happens in a rough cyclical manner.  But there are so many variables that determining the practical weather at the surface in a specific location on a specific date is still beyond us.  

Well said…I’m a believer of the cyclical nature of the LRC but trying to forecast a specific date in the far future is years away from perfecting.  Who knows if we’ll ever see a model predict the wx in a high accuracy rate beyond D10.  I’d love to see this in my lifetime as it would benefit every single person on this planet.  People don’t realize it but the wx literally effects every aspect of our lives.  That’s why I love learning about meteorology and the climate every day.

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33 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

I'm somewhere in between you and Gary.  I don't think the LRC can pinpoint weather to the same extent Gary does.  But as much as I've watched winter weather, there are clearly patterns and cycles that set up each year.  There are places where troughs seem to dominate and others where ridges seem to dominate.  Some areas seem to be in the sweet spot for snow and storms each year while others miss out.  The jet stream moves, but seems to also have a default that it likes to keep settling back to. And this all happens in a rough cyclical manner.  But there are so many variables that determining the practical weather at the surface in a specific location on a specific date is still beyond us.  

I think sometimes there are things that go on near the surface that don't seem predictable that influence where a storm may track.  But I do see the cyclical nature of the storms.  One piece of evidence Gary has claimed to be able to do but has never produced evidence that I have seen is to show that there is a  predictability to teleconnections.

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40 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

I'm somewhere in between you and Gary.  I don't think the LRC can pinpoint weather to the same extent Gary does.  But as much as I've watched winter weather, there are clearly patterns and cycles that set up each year.  There are places where troughs seem to dominate and others where ridges seem to dominate.  Some areas seem to be in the sweet spot for snow and storms each year while others miss out.  The jet stream moves, but seems to also have a default that it likes to keep settling back to. And this all happens in a rough cyclical manner.  But there are so many variables that determining the practical weather at the surface in a specific location on a specific date is still beyond us.  

I'm not about to discredit it, either. I know of very reputable mets who believe in the LRC and swear by it. I just don't use it as a forecast tool to the extent that some on here do. It's a cool theory.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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12z Euro has 2 storms coming through here, one on the 11th and the stronger one on the 13th-14th.  Seems like the 2nd one has come farther south.  GFS still wants to send it almost due north.  Canadian looks more like the Euro.  The track of both of these would bring in colder air and there might even be some flakes around, probably more towards Western Nebraska.  I would guess a cold rain around here if this track verifies.

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2 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

12z Euro has 2 storms coming through here, one on the 11th and the stronger one on the 13th-14th.  Seems like the 2nd one has come farther south.  GFS still wants to send it almost due north.  Canadian looks more like the Euro.  The track of both of these would bring in colder air and there might even be some flakes around, probably more towards Western Nebraska.  I would guess a cold rain around here if this track verifies.

13-14th should have a lot of moisture to tap into down there. Not as much when it's up here. I might get a few hours of rain followed by a windstorm.

>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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Just now, gabel23 said:

Reed timmer getting excited about next week. If it comes to fruition, and the LRC is legit, this baby will be a signature for 2021-22!

 

image.thumb.png.72b99a0ff4c7e5f86f20483d888e4d0e.png

676F02A1-6F3C-4401-9A91-646D2807D933.jpeg

That could tornado drought for Oklahoma next spring. I see the SPC is already introducing a slight risk in the 5 and 7 day period.

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Flagstaff is getting down into the teens.

Meanwhile, I haven't even gotten to the 30s yet.

I'm not salty, you're salty.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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5 hours ago, Clinton said:

On and off showers today totaled up to .22 inches.  Slowly starting to get some moisture again the last 7 days.

Great start to the month of October after a warm and dry Sept.  It's like the pattern is about to "flip the switch"...I'm excited to be finally tracking storm systems and the one showing up next Mon/Tue coming out of the TX Panhandle region has your area in its sights for severe wx.  It's also kinda nice to see the models showing your typical autumn-like storms that have the comma shape to them as it illustrates a healthy system.  I'm diggin' the potential for this new LRC pattern.  BTW, what does that ol' folklore tale mean when you see fog in Autumn???  I think someone said that it bodes well for winter down the road.

1.png

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Speaking of nature, it appears she will be alleviating the drought across the Upper MW/MW over the next 10 days.  0z Euro couldn't dial it up much better than this.  It literally has the heaviest ribbons of precip smack dab over the areas that need it most (N MN/IA/N IL).  

 

MW Drought Map.png

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After analyzing past data from way back on Sept 22nd, coincidentally, the start of astronomical Autumn, we had a powerful Bearing Sea storm track across the Aleutians.  Using the BSR as LR guidance, the major trough that is forecast to wallop the inter-mountain west early next week is quite the correlation.  This system is going to become a powerhouse and likely become a signature storm of the LRC.  I'm intrigued to see so many systems to track during the opening 2 weeks of October.  I already envision the Oct 6th - 15th period to be referred as "Cutter Week Special" in future cycles.  I gotta feeling my LRC notepad will be much longer and detailed than any other year.  Giddy up!

0z EPS snow forecast...great start to the snow season out west...

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On another note, today's JMA weeklies are in and leaning towards the eastern CONUS trough I've been alluding to post 25th.  Several other LR signals I use are especially driving the idea of a potentially amplified N.A. 500mb to close out the month and open Nov.  See maps below...one of the strongest signals for the developing new pattern this entire month of Oct is the massive and expansive ridge over eastern Canada.  This has blocking, blocking, blocking written all over it during the cold season and into early Spring.  I really think we are going to see a ton of HP to our north as winter settles in that will "seed" the cold for systems that we track.  Just my 2 cents.

 

Week 2...after the wetter week next week, it looks like near normal precip for the majority of the Sub and a somewhat cooler period compared to the opening week 2 weeks of Oct.

 

2.png

Precip/Temp...Once the beast storm early next week rolls through the N Sub, I think we will see re-adjusting of the troughs/ridge patterns across the CONUS.

Y202110.D0612_gl0.png

 

These temps will be refreshing and feel more October-like....

Y202110.D0612_gl2.png

 

Week 3-4...the week of the 24th is my target period where the North American pattern begins to dial up hints of winter in the lower 48.  The SW will dry up as the ridge builds in as the stout eastern Canadian ridge holds steady will create a corridor of storms to track underneath the block up north in Canada.  Could there be a Halloween storm to track across the eastern Sub???

 

3.png

 

Precip/Temp...the nation will be active from coast-to-coast, esp when you take into consideration the blocking up in Canada.  My, oh my, we are certainly going to see an active month ahead.  This is fascinating to see in the model world, but especially, it would be wonderful to see in the "real world"...haha 😉...

 

Y202110.D0612_gl0.png

 

Regards to the temps during this period, look for it to start off seasonal but trend colder to close out Oct....

Y202110.D0612_gl2.png

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

Great start to the month of October after a warm and dry Sept.  It's like the pattern is about to "flip the switch"...I'm excited to be finally tracking storm systems and the one showing up next Mon/Tue coming out of the TX Panhandle region has your area in its sights for severe wx.  It's also kinda nice to see the models showing your typical autumn-like storms that have the comma shape to them as it illustrates a healthy system.  I'm diggin' the potential for this new LRC pattern.  BTW, what does that ol' folklore tale mean when you see fog in Autumn???  I think someone said that it bodes well for winter down the road.

1.png

If the snow is as thick as the fog this morning I'm on good shape this winter. Its good to see a system target KC this early and another thing I see is that these storms are reaching their peak strength as they move into the Sub. That's something Gary always alludes to when putting together his winter forecast. 

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1 minute ago, Clinton said:

If the snow is as thick as the fog this morning I'm on good shape this winter. Its good to see a system target KC this early and another thing I see is that these storms are reaching their peak strength as they move into the Sub. That's something Gary always alludes to when putting together his winter forecast. 

Right on!  It appears the MW region could be one of the hot spots.  Way to early to see, but nonetheless, it is looking interesting so far.

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43 minutes ago, Clinton said:

The 6z GFS just went from wet to wetter for next week, and off in fantasy land it goes cold with many of us seeing our first flakes of the season.

1634223600-aktmcz9NlNQ.png

gfs_T2m_us_58.png

Thats a heck of a trough. Turns into a closed off low over the lakes. Kind of in line with @Tom's thought toward late October.  Obviously way out in fantasy but something to take note of.

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Models are consistently showing the current rain event lifting east and north of my area.  I'm hopeful for the Monday system as models are looking better.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Remember Dean Wysocki? Dean Wysocki from Lincoln? Yeah, well he's at WDAY in Fargo now.

Quote

It's LRC week and for weather enthusiasts, this is the week that starts the FIRST cycle of the LRC starts. What is the LRC? This is a relatively NEW forecasting technique to forecast long term weather using a "cycling" method. The "cycle" starts out around Oct 6th and lasts anywhere between 30 and 60 days. Last years "cycle" was 46 days. Here's how it works.....there is a pattern that sets up each fall and it continuously "cycles" through the winter/spring/summer into the following fall. It's a MAJOR piece to long term forecasting and has proven 70 to 80% accurate. Gary Lezak who discovered the LRC accurately predicted 5 of the hurricanes in the Gulf 7 months in advance using his LRC method. Don't believe it? Don't believe IN it? https://www.longdom.org/.../pcycling-weather-patterns-in... So....watch what the weather will be like in YOUR area over the next 30 to 60 days.....if it's stormy....expect an active winter/spring. Stay tuned...... Side note: We will have Gary on our show Nov. 17th to get his thoughts on the LRC upcoming winter for the northern plains. More details to follow.

 

Chief Meteorologist,

Dean Wysocki

Douchebag human being but still a good met.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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1 hour ago, FAR_Weather said:

Remember Dean Wysocki? Dean Wysocki from Lincoln? Yeah, well he's at WDAY in Fargo now.

Douchebag human being but still a good met.

The guy was chased out of town for what sounds like beating his wife. I always loved and admired Dean; after what I heard he did to his wife I'm shocked that anybody would have hired him. 

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6 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

The guy was chased out of town for what sounds like beating his wife. I always loved and admired Dean; after what I heard he did to his wife I'm shocked that anybody would have hired him. 

Yeah, it was never outright said that that's what he did. But given what his wife said on Facebook, that wouldn't surprise me.

Anyway, that's not something that needs to be discussed here.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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5 hours ago, james1976 said:

Thats a heck of a trough. Turns into a closed off low over the lakes. Kind of in line with @Tom's thought toward late October.  Obviously way out in fantasy but something to take note of.

Immediately replaced next run with huge ridge and warmth.  Fun, but anyone looking at pattern change from the GF(fantasy)S in the long term has not followed that model very long.  

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The storm train over the next week should put a nice dent in the northern plains drought.

qpf_acc.us_nc.png

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

GO BLUE!  What's the weather going to be like in Lincoln Saturday night? 

Unseasonably warm.

 

GBR

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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1 hour ago, james1976 said:

@Hawkeyelooks like you're getting hit pretty good. Nice line popping up right over CR.

The northern part of CR got the most, with a few spots over 0.80".  I've picked up 0.18".  It's nice to get some rain again.  Monday still looks like a good soaker around here.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 hour ago, Madtown said:

alrighty at this point last year had 4" down...winter turned out like crap...let's flip this switch first week of Nov and rock till April! Going to pick up a new snowmobile trailer tomorrow, so we will find snow somewhere this year😀

What part of Wisconsin?  I know it says Madison in your profile, but NWS doesn't show 4" for Madison at this point last year.  

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