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October 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom
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Tracking this slow moving ULL has been interesting over the past few days.  This radar loop from yesterday afternoon to present time pretty much sums up what @james1976was commenting as his area literally was in the sweet spot among others in IL.  This will be an interesting system in future cycles.

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=lotrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=150&interval=15&year=2021&month=10&day=7&hour=15&minute=0

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I picked up a healthy .76" of rain yesterday from on and off showers (some heavy) throughout the day.  Perfect rains since I cut the lawn the day before and laid down some fertilizer.  Might get some more pop up showers/storms today with the ULL nearby and if the sun pokes out it could aid in development.

Alright, the next few systems on deck are inspiring to me.  For one, it's freakin' nice to finally see a change in what was a warm and dry Sept.  Second, instead of having to wait weeks for an active pattern to start, this year's LRC is beginning with several systems to track.  Over the past few days, the models finally latched onto to the early week system next week.  Kudos to the GFS which has been rock steady with this one while the Euro finally latched onto this system.  Last night's track has shifted S/SE. 

First severe wx threat down south near @OKCWX for the start of 2nd severe wx season.

4.gif

 

The Sat system is going to drop a lot of good stratiform rains up by @FAR_Weather @Beltrami Island and the UP posters...

2.png

 

Then, we will focus in on the 1st major trough of the season....more drought alleviating rains coming your way!  Since Aug 31st, there has been a good dent in the drought.  These maps will look better by months end.

Aug 31st...

Drought Monitor for High_Plains

 

Oct 5th...

Drought Monitor for High_Plains

 

0z Euro thru the 15th...again, smack dab where the worst drought conditions are currently being experienced...

3.png

 

Now, here comes the fun part...who's ready for the seasons coldest chill???  The Plains get it first...

1.png

 

 

 

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This post will be my interpretation of the new LRC pattern setting up and it has some really fascinating patterns transpiring across the N.H.  First off, we had major Hurricane Sam that developed in the ATL and then tracked towards Greenland right when a trough came off the shores of eastern Canada, resulting in a Fujiwhara Effect.  IMO, this is a sign the new LRC pattern Snapped into motion.  The placement of the trough S of Greenland is a classic -NAO signal.  Then, we see another trough slide E into the same region S of Greenland...Long Term Long Wave Trough setting up???  Yes, this is a Bigly signal to suggest that it will be an exhibit to the LRC and pump the Greenland Ridge.

1.gif

 

We have already been speaking about the storm train and where they are tracking, digging, energizing, etc...I'd like to focus now across the region from the 30th parallel from near Hawaii and points East towards So Cal/Baja.  The consistent troughiness setting up here is eye candy.  Why?  This will be, IMO, what sets the stage for a -EPO signal later in Winter. 

The current SST anomaly below shows the ribbon of cold waters, from Hawaii to Cali, right where the troughs keep showing up near the 30th parallel...the warm waters hugging Baja and Mexico will be the "fuel for the fire" for the pattern heading into winter.

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

Also, not to mention, but look at the E PAC tropical storm that slams into W Mexico later in the animation above.  Active Sub Tropical Jet???  Sign me up!  In summary, this is all coming together in my view as one hellova pattern when you take into consideration all the variables setting up as the pieces of the puzzle are beginning to show itself. 

Furthermore, as I look out well into the LR, I see the modeling coming into agreement that the MJO looks to be moving into Phases 8/1/2 by months end.  The Euro Weeklies shown below are suggesting THE best scenario if you take into consideration the MJO cycles every 30-60 days (just like the LRC) those are the coldest phases you experience during late Autumn/Winter and early Spring.  I mean, can you ask nature to "tee" it up any better?  Am I dreaming?  Are we about to be "living the dream"???  One can only Dream I guess....that's all I have for now...ciao!

EMON_phase_51m_small.gif

 

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Yet another warm (for October) overnight low the official overnight low at Grand Rapids was just 65 if it don't fall below that before midnight this will be the 2nd warmest low for any October 8 at Grand Rapids. That is after yesterdays official low of 62 was the 3rd warmest low for any October 7th If Grand Rapids reaches 80 on Sunday that would be the 5th warmest high for that date. At this time it is cloudy and 65 here at my house.

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Steady light rain all night. I picked up half an inch.

DMX talking potential significant rainfall sun-mon with system #1 and then the big dog midweek could produce severe weather in Iowa and very strong winds.

Gotta love the active start to this new pattern.

Another thing of note is the past several discussions they have mentioned a cirrus shield likely for Saturday with the strong SW flow pulling in moisture from the Baja area at the 300-500mb level which could keep temps in the 70s instead of mid 80s. I'm interested to see how this pans out tomorrow. 

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This system way overperformed here.  I picked up 1.01".  Some spots in the CR area received 1.50+".

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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3 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Possible record high tomorrow here

5311EB4A-80F1-4EF4-AFDF-D8181F153550.jpeg

Wouldn't be a husker home game if it wasn't at least 90 degrees. Rain chances for the week seem to be fading as well 🙄

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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GEFS is just depressing. Gives us an Oklahoma climo.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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Yet again, my area was blessed by a deluge of what seemed like tropical downpours during the afternoon.  Once the fog cleared, the sun came out and it felt like summer with bubbly cumulus clouds blossoming in the buoyant airmass.  Scattered storms fired up and it poured like crazy around midday.  Local reports showing pockets of .50-1.00" or so and I was on the receiving end of these torrential downpours.  I'd say easily over 1" of rain over the past couple days and the areas across the N burbs got a good dose of rain.

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=lotrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=40&interval=10&year=2021&month=10&day=8&hour=12&minute=0

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Models have been locked into the Monday rain event for eastern Iowa as the low moves up along the front.  However, some models are suddenly trending southeast.  Cedar Rapids is now on the nw edge on the GFS and UK.  The RDPS and 3k NAM are now a miss southeast.  The Euro is the only model holding firm with a farther nw track, throwing good rain up to Des Moines and Waterloo.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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There was some spotty very heavy rain fall yesterday. Here at my house I recorded 1.48" of rain fall and there was some street flooding in the area in a heavy down pour in the afternoon. At GRR a new record rain fall amount of 1.00" was reported that broke the old record of 0.96" in 1994. The first 8 days of October 2021 have been very warm and the mean for October is now at 65.6 and that is a departure of +9.7°. There was a lot of fog earlier but it has now became less foggy here. The overnight low here at my house was once again a warm 61 and at this time it is cloudy and 62.

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Now the 12z HRRR is a miss southeast on Monday.  Ugh!  I'm getting worried.

season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

Hopefully before January at least lol

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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KLNK is definitely having some sensor issues. I wouldn’t consider complete overcast all day to be “fair” lol. I’ve noticed similar situations in the past. At least it’s more like 79 instead of 89.

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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The line of storms crapped out before reaching Fargo.  That has to be a little disappointing.

season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 hour ago, Hawkeye said:

The line of storms crapped out before reaching Fargo.  That has to be a little disappointing.

I was at a hockey game the entire time so I didn't really care. Still got a decent bit of rain. Drought areas to my west received the brunt of it which I'm fine with. I'll take my inch and let them have their 4.

I will say, the grass is actually saturated. Only took till October for that to happen!

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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3 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

I was at a hockey game the entire time so I didn't really care. Still got a decent bit of rain. Drought areas to my west received the brunt of it which I'm fine with. I'll take my inch and let them have their 4.

I will say, the grass is actually saturated. Only took till October for that to happen!

That was one wicked looking line that rolled on through your region and into MN...#radarporn

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=sel4rad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=40&interval=15&year=2021&month=10&day=9&hour=17&minute=0

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

It may seem like it's been years since the KC/N MO has seen a perfect storm track....models dialing in on quite the compact system for Sun pm into Monday...

1.gif

This is great to see and I believe this will target us several times over the Winter months. Look like the storm may begin tonight during the Chiefs game. Hopefully we don't see a delay do to lighting. Rainfall  looks impressive with some 2 to 4 inch totals.

image.thumb.png.ba5ecec5e22837b82c91469c213d3108.png

 

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It has been a very warm start to October this year. After 9 days the mean at Grand Rapids is 65.6 that is a departure of +9.9 and that is the smallest departure from average in the area. At Muskegon the mean is 66.4 and that is a departure of +10.4 and at Holland the mean is 67.5 and that is a departure of +11.7 that mean is more typical of June. To the east at Lansing the mean is 65.8 and that is a departure of +10.8. We will have to see how the rest of the month plays out. The record warmest October mean (whole month) at Grand Rapids is 59.1 at Holland 61.1 at Muskegon 58.5 and at Lansing 58.4.
I recorded 0.06" of rain fall overnight. At this time it is partly cloudy and 68 here with a dew point of 65.

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We’re all preparing for a turbulent evening.   
Air flow is colliding over West Tx., slowly tracking East.  Our Oklahoma neighbors will get into the act too. Heavy rain forecast. 

Currently  seeing wind at 20 mph with frequent gusts to 32mph.  Collision of the air should spin off some tornado warnings later tonight.  
Just hate nighttime tornados.  Seems to have become more the rule than the exception in recent years. 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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The latest HRRR and Euro through Monday.

qpf_acc.us_mw.pngqpf_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Euro is less depressing than GFS. Still dry, but at least temps are about average.

Just gimme a freeze, man.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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I wasn't even expecting any real rain today, but I picked up 0.15" earlier and a heavier cell just put me over a half inch.  The main system doesn't even arrive til early tomorrow morning.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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3 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Our atmostphere is like old school spring tonight. Craziness. Tornado in Coweta, OK tonight. Will likely be more ans damage through my area in the next few hours. Not going to get a lot of sleep.

I hope your doing alright down there bud...both you and @Andie were on my mind yesterday.  This radar loop appears that your area got hit hard.  Let us know how things are going down there.

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=sel7rad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=75&interval=15&year=2021&month=10&day=10&hour=18&minute=0

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Happy Columbus Day!  Thanks to Christopher Columbus who discovered this land way back in 1492.  As we commemorate this discovery, I'm thankful for Gary Lezak and his discovery of the LRC over 20+ years ago.  You see how I tried to tie in the wx??  🤓 

In any event, today we continue tracking a powerful system that will be cycling through or Sub over the weeks/months to come.  Will the Tornado drought for KC end?  This year's pattern appears to be heading that way so we shall see how this all unfolds.  Meanwhile, what a friggin' powerful system last night that continues today.  I'm intrigued to see how this system formed so quickly out of the AMA region and tracked right over OKC and now it's cutting up towards N IL.  This one has an asterisk on my notepad.

Looks like things are going to get a bit bumpy here late evening and many of us across the MW are in line for severe storms.  Quite the potent ULL and fuel to fire up some big time boomers.  The 2nd in a series of storms is producing a classic comma shape on radar.  This is seriously wx porn if your keeping tabs on how nature is producing such dynamic systems this year.  It gets me excited about what lies ahead in the cold season. 

Speaking of cold, nearly our entire Sub will FINALLY  feel like Autumn by the time this weekend arrives.  First, our Plains/Upper MW members feel it and then once the 4th system rolls on through that'll pound the Upper MW and unleash winters fury over the Rockies (blizzard conditions and feet of snow), the 500mb pattern then shifts around a bit following this storm and opens for a period of NW Flow aloft around the 19th/20th.  I'll post maps below.

Patchy Frost this weekend???

1.png

 

2.png

 

The models had ZERO clue last week but have suddenly trended cooler later next week as a clipper type storm tracks across S Canada right as the PNA pops (+).  This flip is a big clue and an important atmospheric driving force over North America and eventually our Sub.  I'd be worried if the PNA were to stay (-) as it would blow torch our Sub, however, this is heading in the right direction in my opinion. 

3.png

 

As we progress farther down the road, I made a comment last week and suggested the mean 500mb blocking pattern setting up over central/eastern Canada would be an ideal blocking pattern.  In fact, I can see the models trending that way slowly but surely and beginning to show signs of a southern stream storm track to fire up again around the 23rd/24th.  Last nights 00z GEFS trends are hinting exactly what I was referring to....

 

1.gif

 

 

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After this storm clears the sub, Tuesday night another one will be spinning over ND on Wednesday dragging a cold front through from west to east.  What's cool about this, is that it picks up the remnants of a storm in the Pacific and another storm forms on the south end of the cold front.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_11.png

This storm gets its act together over Texas and lifts NE over many of the same areas getting hit today. We are getting our first look at a few of the LRC hot spots.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16.png

What an exciting week of weather we are having, can't wait to see the Winter version later on!

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I've picked up 0.90" from early yesterday through this morning.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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There is a good chance that today will be the warmest day for the rest of 2021 that said.

New records for the warmest minimums were set at Grand Rapids and Muskegon for yesterday October 10th the low at Grand Rapids of 64 yesterday set a new record for the warmest minimum for the date at Muskegon their low of 65 also set a new record. At Holland their low of 67 is the new 2nd warmest minimum for the date 70 in 1949 is the record. At Lansing their low of 64 is the new 3rd place warmest minimum their record is 67 in 1879 and in 2nd place is 65 in 2018.

After new record warmest minimums were set for October 10 the over night lows for today have been even warmer. At Muskegon the overnight low was just 72 If it stays above 63 until midnight today would set a new record. At Holland the overnight low has been 69 (it was in the low 70’s most of the night) it would have to stay above 67 until midnight for a new record there for today. Here at my house and at GRR the overnight low has been 67 It would have to stay above 65 until midnight for a new record minimum to be set here. At this time with clear skies it is 69 here.

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