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October 2021 Observations and Discussion


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Hit 35*F this morning with a decent breeze. First time I've felt legitimately cold stepping outside all season. Last year, that happened in early September. Better very very very very late than never I guess. 56*F.

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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 4 (Last: 8/9)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 8/9)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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We’ll, Pam isn’t exactly the worst hurricane that Texas has seen but it’s making a bee line for my house.  
Lot’s of rain. Some gusty wind. Sounds like a typical Fall storm for us.  
 

it’s windy today and overcast but that’s not Pam.  That’s the front that moved through. 83*. Winds 16-20 mph.  Rain mañana.  

49E602DD-09CA-4A56-ADEE-8A18BFD02BE0.png

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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38 minutes ago, Andie said:

We’ll, Pam isn’t exactly the worst hurricane that Texas has seen but it’s making a bee line for my house.  
Lot’s of rain. Some gusty wind. Sounds like a typical Fall storm for us.  
 

it’s windy today and overcast but that’s not Pam.  That’s the front that moved through. 83*. Winds 16-20 mph.  Rain mañana.  

49E602DD-09CA-4A56-ADEE-8A18BFD02BE0.png

Insane that a Pacific cyclone is expected to remain tropical into North Texas.

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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 4 (Last: 8/9)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 8/9)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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3 hours ago, Niko said:

Did some grilling earlier on my patio and felt beautiful. Temps were in the upper 60s w a nice breeze.

Btw: Who was around in SEMI on this date today back in 2006, when Detroit officially received  0.2" of snowfall. This was the earliest measurable snow in recorded (Detroit) weather history. How about that! Wow.

Not here in SEMI on that date, but Marshall/Albion had around 1" (didn't stay on the ground long). The real jackpot was from Battle Creek and north through Barry county where they had an incredible 8-10"  I thought perhaps I had a copy of the snowfall map saved but couldn't find it. GRR has had a write-up more than once on it. Early in the morning hours of 10/12/06 KBTL was reporting 29F and Heavy Snow and blowing snow. A true Nino autumn event. November 30th there was a big snowstorm coming but it curved west a bit and we had that bad ice storm instead that I crashed my new car in. Then it got mild and snowless at Christmas until February then it turned bitter cold (one of JB's LR wins) and the OHV Valentine's Day bliz was a massive and historic storm.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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3 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

Insane that a Pacific cyclone is expected to remain tropical into North Texas.

It IS crazy considering it’s going over a hilly expanse and quite a distance over dry arid Mexican land.  
It'll be interesting if it has any umph when it arrives. 

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Not here in SEMI on that date, but Marshall/Albion had around 1" (didn't stay on the ground long). The real jackpot was from Battle Creek and north through Barry county where they had an incredible 8-10"  I thought perhaps I had a copy of the snowfall map saved but couldn't find it. GRR has had a write-up more than once on it. Early in the morning hours of 10/12/06 KBTL was reporting 29F and Heavy Snow and blowing snow. A true Nino autumn event. November 30th there was a big snowstorm coming but it curved west a bit and we had that bad ice storm instead that I crashed my new car in. Then it got mild and snowless at Christmas until February then it turned bitter cold (one of JB's LR wins) and the OHV Valentine's Day bliz was a massive and historic storm.

Thanks for the write-up Jaster. I was about to ask you how that Winter ended up, since it snowed so early on.

 

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Snowfall as of today Oct 2021= 0.0"

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3 hours ago, Andie said:

It IS crazy considering it’s going over a hilly expanse and quite a distance over dry arid Mexican land.  
It'll be interesting if it has any umph when it arrives. 

IMO, it just adds to the premise that this Autumn nature is churning things up in the atmosphere...what a wild pattern we are seeing for the western 2/3rd's of the CONUS thus far...

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Speaking of wild, while Chicago has endured the warmest start to any October in history, it was primarily carried by very very warm overnight low's.  On top of that, it has been the cloudiest start to any Oct since 1920.  You wonder why I miss the sun?  Oh, ya, it did briefly make a presence just after 5:00pm local time right before sunset.  Low stratus held temps in the low 60's all day.  

 

1.jpg

 

As the cloud deck moved east, the skies have cleared and temps have dropped into the low 50's which should end up being the coldest morning so far of the season for ORD.  It's currently 54F with clear skies...looking forward to seeing the sunshine this morning.

 

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To add to Grizz's comment above...this storm is delivering quite the dynamics!  #thundersnow

Quote
Current conditions at

Douglas, Converse County Airport (KDGW)

Lat: 42.79°NLon: 105.38°WElev: 4928ft.
nsn.png

Thunderstorm in Vicinity Heavy Snow Freezing Fog and Windy

28°F

 

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12 hours ago, Niko said:

Did some grilling earlier on my patio and felt beautiful. Temps were in the upper 60s w a nice breeze.

Btw: Who was around in SEMI on this date today back in 2006, when Detroit officially received  0.2" of snowfall. This was the earliest measurable snow in recorded (Detroit) weather history. How about that! Wow.

That was one unusual snow event. Some other snow fall totals for that day Grand Rapids 2.0” Lansing 1.5” here is the NWS weather history write up for that day. First SE Michigan

“On October 12, 2006, the earliest measurable snowfall occurred in Detroit, Flint and Saginaw. Detroit recorded 0.2 inches of snow, Flint received 2.3 inches of snow, and Saginaw had 0.3 inches of snow.”

And SW Michigan

“2006: A record early season snowstorm brings up to eight inches of snow to southwest Lower Michigan. Tree damage and power outages were extensive around Hastings in Barry County as the wet, heavy snow clings to the tree branches, which still had leaves on them.”

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1.37" thus far at KDSM. Earlier week system those in SE and E IA did pretty well, but only .38" at KDSM. Finally got a system to pan out. Most daily rainfall since July 31st- (1.91").

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Had exactly 1.00" of rainfall as the very impressive line of storms came through early this morning.  Lots of wind with it which will continue all day today.  Hope this cycles through again in the months ahead.  Right at 32.00" for the year, 7 inches above normal for the entire year with 2 1/2 months to go.

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Beautiful wet stretch here in KC. We needed it! approaching 3.5 inches of rain for the week and with last Wednesday's .77 inches from a thunderstorm on LRC Day 1 (OCT. 6th) that is now (3) different storms in the first week of the new LRC. 

Hopefully this is a good sign for several wet periods during the winter. One more smaller storm looking to hit late tomorrow into Friday. That will be 4 storms to target the nation's midsection in one week. 

 

COME ON WINTER! BE SOMEBODY THIS YEAR!!!!!! 

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1 hour ago, westMJim said:

That was one unusual snow event. Some other snow fall totals for that day Grand Rapids 2.0” Lansing 1.5” here is the NWS weather history write up for that day. First SE Michigan

“On October 12, 2006, the earliest measurable snowfall occurred in Detroit, Flint and Saginaw. Detroit recorded 0.2 inches of snow, Flint received 2.3 inches of snow, and Saginaw had 0.3 inches of snow.”

And SW Michigan

“2006: A record early season snowstorm brings up to eight inches of snow to southwest Lower Michigan. Tree damage and power outages were extensive around Hastings in Barry County as the wet, heavy snow clings to the tree branches, which still had leaves on them.”

Craziness! I think that Winter that followed in SEMI was actually quite snowy and cold. Not sure though.

Snowfall as of today Oct 2021= 0.0"

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58 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

Beautiful wet stretch here in KC. We needed it! approaching 3.5 inches of rain for the week and with last Wednesday's .77 inches from a thunderstorm on LRC Day 1 (OCT. 6th) that is now (3) different storms in the first week of the new LRC. 

Hopefully this is a good sign for several wet periods during the winter. One more smaller storm looking to hit late tomorrow into Friday. That will be 4 storms to target the nation's midsection in one week. 

 

COME ON WINTER! BE SOMEBODY THIS YEAR!!!!!! 

Given how things have started and the storm tomorrow night, ya kinda gotta feel like we are in the right spot this year.

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This from NOAA Discussions:

The SW-NE frontal zone will remain in place Thursday night and
another strong upper wave coming out of the Four Corners
region will spin up low pressure over the Western Ohio Valley, and
expected to track very close or through southern Lower Michigan
Friday afternoon/evening (see 00z Canadian), and this is supported
by a substantial amount of the 12z EURO ensembles.

 

What a track. Can you imagine this was Winter.  Major Winterstorm in the works. I am liking the southern storm track so far.

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Snowfall as of today Oct 2021= 0.0"

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Every system is suddenly delivering for us.  My rain total this morning is 0.91".  That puts me at 4.13" over the last week, a significant dent in the rebuilding drought.  The rest of the month looks dry, but this time we can use it. 😀

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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At least I'm done using my AC for the year. 

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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 4 (Last: 8/9)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 8/9)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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35 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Every system is suddenly delivering for us.  My rain total this morning is 0.91".  That puts me at 4.13" over the last week, a significant dent in the rebuilding drought.  The rest of the month looks dry, but this time we can use it. 😀

I wouldn’t hold your breath on a dry pattern.  I’m already seeing signs of a system around the 20th 😃….

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3 hours ago, Niko said:

Craziness! I think that Winter that followed in SEMI was actually quite snowy and cold. Not sure though.

The winter of 2006/07 was a mixed bag. Not much snow on the east side but near or just above average on the west side of the state and up north. In SE Michigan the official total snow fall the the winter was 30.3 at Detroit. 41.0 at Flint 29.1" at Saginaw. On the west side of the state Grand Rapids 83.3" Muskegon 86.8"

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What a nice fall day.  Temps in the mid 50's with full sunshine.  NW winds gusting to 40 MPH has made it feel much cooler.  Lows of around 33 tonight will promote some frost.  No killing freezes yet.  However, Saturday morning could possibly get down in the upper 20's to around 30 if skies clear out.

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1 hour ago, westMJim said:

The winter of 2006/07 was a mixed bag. Not much snow on the east side but near or just above average on the west side of the state and up north. In SE Michigan the official total snow fall the the winter was 30.3 at Detroit. 41.0 at Flint 29.1" at Saginaw. On the west side of the state Grand Rapids 83.3" Muskegon 86.8"

Thanks for this info.

Snowfall as of today Oct 2021= 0.0"

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There was a confirmed tornado near Crete, ND earlier. The same storm line is moving into Fargo now, albeit with no tornadoes.

I'm in Bismarck right now for work purposes. Clearly, the cold side of this system is here. 47°F and constant mist.

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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 4 (Last: 8/9)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 8/9)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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I just checked my rain data for the year.  This week's 4.13" is the wettest week of the entire year.  It's more than every month except two, and it's not far below those two.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Only 1/3” of rain so far. Slow moving Pam is training pretty much west of Ft Worth. More to come overnight.  
It’s  been a very dark all day.  
Barometric  pressure being low has given me a whale of a headache and the air is very heavy. We’re at 66*.  

 

0864DA8A-00B4-42E7-B0BB-764CFD735DC9.png

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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I will never get tired of those words

Quote
-Another round of rain Friday afternoon/night

Potent shortwave moving through the base of the approaching wrn
longwave trough ejects our way later Friday into Friday night.
Scattered showers and storms will persist along the frontal
boundary Friday before the main wave comes out, mainly south and
east of GRR. Then as the shortwave approaches later in the day,
look for rain to become more widespread over the bulk of the area.
Deformation shield may set up overhead, with widespread rain
persisting most of Friday night as well. The axis of heaviest
total rainfall looks to mainly impact se Lwr MI, possibly
including the JXN/LAN areas, where amounts over an inch are
possible.

 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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The line of rain/storms has moved East over us but the rain is surprisingly no worse than a spring series of thunderstorms.  
The last couple of hurricanes in experience dropped rain by the buckets full.  Pam seems to be minding her manners.  A fair amount of lightening and thunder.  all the drama was expended on the west coast of Mexico.  

C25DF84B-C72B-4A71-BFCD-29F8C0FACA3E.png

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Pam is still south but tomorrow it will be moving into and through the DFW area and by the 15th it will be on the No Ark/ So Mo line.  
No doubt plenty of rain still in this Low.  Enjoy the last of Pam guys. 
 

 

BE7DFB95-1C0C-4A5F-869F-4CF7CF3C00C7.png

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 4 (Last: 8/9)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 8/9)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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14 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

1.34” of rain here. 
End of October still looking dry and warm.

189DEDA9-DDD9-4EEE-9881-500D4C1ADE3D.jpeg

Yeah, that's an... Odd outlook. It looks like they looked at GFS and based it solely on that. Euro actually has the high plains being pretty chilly.

Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 4 (Last: 8/9)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 8/9)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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The last hoorah in this unbelievable active SW Flow pattern is going to produce system #5 in this LONG series of storms.  Actually, if you count the remnants of Pamela it'll be "6" systems that we will have tracked.  The tail end of this long lasting western CONUS trough has a piece of energy currently tracking through the Rockies and will form a SLP in where I believe one of this years Hot Spots is showing up....the TX Pan Handle....another intensifying Lower Lakes Cutter in the works????  My goodness, this has tremendous potential for the S MW/OHV this cold season....

 

1.gif

 

 

 

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The central/northern Sub's 1st legit chance of the season for widespread Frost/Freeze's showing up later next week around the 21st.  Models are trending bolder and colder as Blocking is delivering.  Bring it.

2.png

 

 

Edit: Forgot to post this...1st run of the season showing snow across the MW

1.png!

 

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

The last hoorah in this unbelievable active SW Flow pattern is going to produce system #5 in this LONG series of storms.  Actually, if you count the remnants of Pamela it'll be "6" systems that we will have tracked.  The tail end of this long lasting western CONUS trough has a piece of energy currently tracking through the Rockies and will form a SLP in where I believe one of this years Hot Spots is showing up....the TX Pan Handle....another intensifying Lower Lakes Cutter in the works????  My goodness, this has tremendous potential for the S MW/OHV this cold season....

 

1.gif

 

 

 

The last few days the EC and GEFS have been showing an active cold stretch beginning around the 20th, including a large Tex/Pan Handle storm around the 25th. It looks quite possible that we'll have more storms in the pattern before October ends than we had last year in entire first cycle of the LRC. 

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31 minutes ago, Clinton said:

The last few days the EC and GEFS have been showing an active cold stretch beginning around the 20th, including a large Tex/Pan Handle storm around the 25th. It looks quite possible that we'll have more storms in the pattern before October ends than we had last year in entire first cycle of the LRC. 

#amazeballs…I guess it ain’t ova till nature says so…

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Pam turned out to be a nice rain maker. Got 1” but a disappointment. Nothing to worry about.    
Some areas received 2-4” of rain while Ft. Worth only received .25-.50”.  
That’s fine. We’ll take it.  
Temp highs finally in the 70’s. Lows in the 40’s. Fall is finally here!  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Looks like the temp has bottomed out at 32 or 33 degrees depending on the weather app that I check. I think I have 6 of them 😂.  As the sun starts to come up, I see some frost on the rooftops and some on the top of cars.  Obviously not a killing frost or freeze.  Might get in the upper 20's range Saturday morning.  Had to put on the jacket this morning.  It was awesome.

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