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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


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7 minutes ago, The Blob said:

I was checking the apps and it did look chilly. My son asked me to make him a sweater so now I have to jump on that. 

That is totally cool!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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This looks like it could be an honest to goodness cold October this year.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Lip-chapping cold to close the month. Coldest temps of the year on my birthday this time? We shall see…

  • Snow 2

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 60F (Oct 13)
  • Coldest low: 32F (Oct 12)
  • Days with below freezing temps:1 (Most recent: Oct 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

gfs_T2m_nwus_26.thumb.png.135ac0e158cbee6a88006d5cb522aca6.png

Early look at next Wednesday night shows the coldest temperatures of the season, upper 30s at SeaTac and surely frosts and subfreezing temperatures in cooler spots.

Ensembles are another notch or two colder than 00z too.

ens_image.php?geoid=136221&var=201&run=6

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2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

gfs_T2m_nwus_26.thumb.png.135ac0e158cbee6a88006d5cb522aca6.png

Early look at next Wednesday night shows the coldest temperatures of the season, upper 30s at SeaTac and surely frosts and subfreezing temperatures in cooler spots.

Time to bring some plants in from outside 

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3 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

gfs_T2m_nwus_26.thumb.png.135ac0e158cbee6a88006d5cb522aca6.png

Early look at next Wednesday night shows the coldest temperatures of the season, upper 30s at SeaTac and surely frosts and subfreezing temperatures in cooler spots.

Yup, could easily see frost in my neighborhood if that verifies.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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Now 50˚F after an overnight low of 44˚F.

Yesterday's low was 49˚F at 10:15 pm. Clouds came in and it warmed up after then (only to clear out and resume cooling after midnight). High yesterday was 63˚F… at 2:00 am. Yes, am not pm (downsloping winds peaked then). Weird day.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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26 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

October 2019.

 

That month doesn’t get much attention since it was cold anomalies in October so it didn’t produce much besides cold overnight lows and chilly crisp days. Statistically speaking it was pretty anomalous though. One of my favorite weather months was beautiful. 

Monthly rainfall-1.16”

Cold season rainfall-1.16”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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14 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

That month doesn’t get much attention since it was cold anomalies in October so it didn’t produce much besides cold overnight lows and chilly crisp days. Statistically speaking it was pretty anomalous though. One of my favorite weather months was beautiful. 

Most impressive is that it actually wound up tying October 1919 as the coldest on record for the region (OR, WA, ID). 

February 2019 by comparison was the 12th coldest on record for the region and no other month since May 2011 ranks in the top 15.

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15 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Most impressive is that it actually wound up tying October 1919 as the coldest on record for the region (OR, WA, ID). 

February 2019 by comparison was the 12th coldest on record for the region and no other month since May 2011 ranks in the top 15.

Makes sense I didn't remember Oct 2019 as being particularly cold. I was in L.A. that month and it was the usual offshore wind / wildfire / smokefest down there. I recorded a +4.1 departure for the month.

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11 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z GFS says we could have some gusty winds in Ocean Shores as a 998mb low makes its way off the coast on Tuesday AM.

sfcgust_mph.us_state_wa (1).png

I need a big windstorm, I'm a windstorm lover much like Michael Snyder and look mainly for that, thunderstorms second then snow and so on. Looking forward to a Columbus Day storm repeat one of these days before I leave this earth :)

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Seem's like this, Twitter (#WAWX) (#ORWX) and Facebook's PDX WX Analysis is the best to stay up with the latest. NWS only makes discussions certain times of the day, Cliff Mass mainly writes forecasts on Friday's unless something very active is coming and all other sites don't really have much going on.   

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35 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

Makes sense I didn't remember Oct 2019 as being particularly cold. I was in L.A. that month and it was the usual offshore wind / wildfire / smokefest down there. I recorded a +4.1 departure for the month.

Regionally Oct 2019 was a cool one. It was 2 months in a row that ran considerably cooler than 1981-2010 normal in fact that September/October. As long as it actually rains this time in October I'd be happy with it.

But November and December both torched. 

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There are 2 October threads… which one do we use? I’m only here for the pumpkin spice. 
 

regardless, looks to be a tad chilly next week and possible freezing in some of the outlier areas.

 

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1 hour ago, Spiritual Chris WX said:

I need a big windstorm, I'm a windstorm lover much like Michael Snyder and look mainly for that, thunderstorms second then snow and so on. Looking forward to a Columbus Day storm repeat one of these days before I leave this earth :)

Hey, a fellow windstorm lover!! We are in the minority here but I am also looking forward to a great Windstorm! 

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14 minutes ago, Cloud said:

There are 2 October threads… which one do we use? I’m only here for the pumpkin spice. 
 

regardless, looks to be a tad chilly next week and possible freezing in some of the outlier areas.

 

This one has more popularity and hours older. Just be sure this one gets pinned.

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8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Hey, a fellow windstorm lover!! We are in the minority here but I am also looking forward to a great Windstorm! 

Going on nearly 7 years since a non-convective wind strong enough to knock power out. (I'm not counting dry east wind)

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15 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Hey, a fellow windstorm lover!! We are in the minority here but I am also looking forward to a great Windstorm! 

Ehhh I’d say it’s 50/50 on the forum don’t think there’s really a majority that like or dislike windstorms. They’re fascinating for sure but the damage afterwards sucks. 

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Monthly rainfall-1.16”

Cold season rainfall-1.16”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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10 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Ehhh I’d say it’s 50/50 on the forum don’t think there’s really a majority that like or dislike windstorms. They’re fascinating for sure but the damage afterwards sucks. 

Count me as a windstorm disliker. There are many large Douglas Firs on my property and adjacent ones that are within a few dozen feet of my home. I take a lot of pride in my landscape too and 100 pound branches falling from 50 feet up are not good for whatever they land on. My heart gets pumping whenever the wind really gets howling. 

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4 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Count me as a windstorm disliker. There are many large Douglas Firs on my property and adjacent ones that are within a few dozen feet of my home. I take a lot of pride in my landscape too and 100 pound branches falling from 50 feet up are not good for whatever they land on. My heart gets pumping whenever the wind really gets howling. 

I definitely understand that. Damaging as they may be they’re also beneficial to the ecosystem getting rid of weak/dead trees and limbs. Some things we just can’t control so I just enjoy the excitement and hope that nobody’s injured during it. 

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Monthly rainfall-1.16”

Cold season rainfall-1.16”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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60 and mostly sunny here. Gotta love sunny fall days just the perfect temps and beautiful sky. 

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Monthly rainfall-1.16”

Cold season rainfall-1.16”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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  • iFred pinned this topic
13 hours ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z GFS Ensembles - 850mb temps/Precip

Wet, chilly, and mountain snows.

Portland

ens_image.php?geoid=135728&var=201&run=0

Seattle

ens_image.php?geoid=136221&var=201&run=0

Consistent with 12z ensembles too - perhaps a bit more consolidation of members around the mean prior to the 11th. Sweet to see such good precip chances coming with the cold too, excellent start for mountain snowpack. Interesting that there seems to be such a wide spread of ensemble means for Seattle with the upcoming "spike" for next wednesday, which has basically disappeared and now the mean is below the LT average on the 12z. 

 ens_image.png.c8bd2859c1c83e6870e465f6dce04fbe.png189208263_ens_image(1).png.74692f5abfc687cca411685d7f5e289e.png

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One thing I appreciate about living at this latitude is that the sun is usually at or under 39º, and 39º corresponds with color temps under 4000k, which is that solid transition from yellow-white to orange-yellow, giving us that "evening light" effect as early at 2pm in early October.

Its just fucking beautiful. This magical light is something that most people at around 40ºN (Re: most of America's cities)have to wait for until late October. While I wish the Earth's rotation would magically flip (or the poles would) so we could get some fun Canadian air masses mixing in some Pacific moisture, often times the beauty of a low sun angle on a mild day can eclipse what a winter day looked like in the Mid Atlantic.

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15 minutes ago, snow drift said:

2007 shows up once again.

 

814analog.off.gif

1956 and 71 too. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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