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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


The Blob

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15 minutes ago, snow drift said:

2007 shows up once again.

 

814analog.off.gif

1956 and 71 too. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

1956 and 71 too. 

Coastal Gale of Dec '07 and Jan 2008 was a nice pack producer.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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A beautiful 65F out there.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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Easterly shear already approaching 50hpa. Full blown -QBO likely for the middle and later part of winter.

 

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Just noticed this tree is crooked from the upstairs vantage point in our room.  Used to be straight! I think the combination of dryness, the recent precip and winds may have tilted it…. May have been weakened by lack of rain over the summer.  It’s actually a big one and may actually go down this fall/winter at the next windstorm. 

D0C2E77E-A419-4125-87DC-736105E228E4.jpeg

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The models are really kicking out some downright cold solutions for so early in the season now.  Really sexy looking GOA block / NW trough.  The 12z ECMWF showed a few highs in the low 50s for SEA coming up with one low below 40.  Brrrr.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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42 minutes ago, Phil said:

For reference:

 

7354BC68-5692-406C-BDAF-5C581C6A1604.jpeg

Wow, that's a big outlier.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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35 minutes ago, Phil said:

Easterly shear already approaching 50hpa. Full blown -QBO likely for the middle and later part of winter.

We'll see.  The numeric data I've seen suggests a weak and short lived minus anomaly at 50mb.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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55 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

God forbid anything would indicate global warming might be coming to an end!  Glaciers could be grinding down the streets of Seattle and the global warming alarmists would say this in no way suggests an end to the global warming (which is mostly natural cycle BTW).

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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6 hours ago, Eujunga said:

Makes sense I didn't remember Oct 2019 as being particularly cold. I was in L.A. that month and it was the usual offshore wind / wildfire / smokefest down there. I recorded a +4.1 departure for the month.

I was still living in Covina at that time. October that year was really nice. Honestly the only month that sucked for me that year was August because it actually got hot for us.

I didn't realize how nice it was to live there till my parents were complaining about the endless 100+ heat and we would mostly be in the 80s maybe hit 90.

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The 12z ECMWF spit out a low of 35 for McChord on the 8th.  Can't wait!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I have no idea how the forecasters at Weatherbell managed to come up with a warm west / cold east forecast for this winter.  Pretty daring totally ignoring La Nina climo.  Their forecast falls into the least likely camp to verify.  If this winter is ruined for us I suspect it would be too flat of a ridge over the NE Pacific / GOA as opposed to a ridge along the West Coast.  I can't even think of a second year Nina that had a Western ridge problem.  1999-2000 was a disaster, but that was horrible for the entire country, and not caused by a Western ridge.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I have no idea how the forecasters at Weatherbell managed to come up with a warm west / cold east forecast for this winter.  Pretty daring totally ignoring La Nina climo.  Their forecast falls into the least likely camp to verify.  If this winter is ruined for us I suspect it would be too flat of a ridge over the NE Pacific / GOA as opposed to a ridge along the West Coast.  I can't even think of a second year Nina that had a Western ridge problem.  1999-2000 was a disaster, but that was horrible for the entire country, and not caused by a Western ridge.

East coast bias. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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sigh

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

East coast bias. 

I expect if it were currently 1949 they would have a warm winter forecast for us.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

God forbid anything would indicate global warming might be coming to an end!  Glaciers could be grinding down the streets of Seattle and the global warming alarmists would say this in no way suggests an end to the global warming (which is mostly natural cycle BTW).

Uh, Jim, there are two words in the phrase “global warming.” From that same linked article:

E_z67sAVQAgGLso?format=jpg&name=small

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Uh, Jim, there are two words in the phrase “global warming.” From that same linked article:

E_z67sAVQAgGLso?format=jpg&name=small

I'm not denying we've had global warming for a while now.  Still a bounce back from the Little Ice Age.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I'm going to be interested to see just how cold this month will actually end up.  Right now the models indicate a top 5% or 10% cold October is on the table for us.  Really nice looking pattern coming up if you like below normal temps and great leaf turning weather.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm not denying we've had global warming for a while now.  Still a bounce back from the Little Ice Age.

My point was that, contrary to your earlier post, the ongoing antarctic cold snap is not in any way evidence that global warming is winding down. Overall global temperatures are still averaging above normal.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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Just now, MossMan said:

If we can hit 115 in late June, we can hit -115 in late November! Book it! 

One thing for sure is the atmosphere has shown it's capable of great extremes the past couple of years.  Very amplified base state.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

My point was that, contrary to your earlier post, the ongoing antarctic cold snap is not in any way evidence that global warming is winding down. Overall global temperatures are still averaging above normal.

I was just commenting on how just about anything could happen and these people would say the Earth is going to catch on fire in 20 years.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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17 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I was just commenting on how just about anything could happen and these people would say the Earth is going to catch on fire in 20 years.

It’s pretty darn likely warming will continue as long as CO₂ continues to increase just because of the basic physics of the atmosphere. Saying that maybe it won't because for some unexplained reason the sun might dim is a bit like saying money spent on a new roof (when the current one is leaking) may be wasted, because next year a meteor might hit it and require repairs anyhow. (And I can’t prove there won’t be a meteor, much like I can’t prove the sun won’t unexpectedly dim.)

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

God forbid anything would indicate global warming might be coming to an end!  Glaciers could be grinding down the streets of Seattle and the global warming alarmists would say this in no way suggests an end to the global warming (which is mostly natural cycle BTW).

Keep the politics off the observations topic please.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I was just commenting on how just about anything could happen and these people would say the Earth is going to catch on fire in 20 years.

Well we have endured a fuckk ton of warmer than normal months. Only March was below normal over the last like 18 months. And we’ve almost caught on fire in the last 2 years so there’s that.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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19 minutes ago, MWG said:

53/80 for today and we will have a couple of more days with a high of low 80's but it's been so beautiful!!! This summer have felt we have been in a capsule and just now we have been released lol

 

I'm still full from all the 90-burgers. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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I have exactly a month left in Klamath Falls (this house just sold to someone and all the inspections are complete). So I figured I'll make my signature short by taking a screen shot of my current one and laying an Imgur link below for it. 

Looking at homes in Kentucky! Big changes are ahead. I waited until I was more sure of what the situation was before telling more folks about this.
It's going to be in a city at least as big as K-Falls. Right now it looks like Ashland, KY. 

I'm aware there is quite a difference in climate and seems like a lot of homes are air-conditioned. Also most likely won't pick a home that will end up with flood damage; it'll be in a downtown setting much like my current setup. Summers are warm and there are skeeters, and like 50 some odd t'storm days a year? 😝

It'll be an adventure. Cities do have water main breaks just about on a every summer basis in that part of the US, so we'll probably have a regular rotation of backup drinking water when we shop. Just the little extra things I'll need to get used to in a different area. Maybe I'll see my first ever funnel cloud and/or tornado next year?

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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4 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

I have exactly a month left in Klamath Falls (this house just sold to someone and all the inspections are complete). So I figured I'll make my signature short by taking a screen shot of my current one and laying an Imgur link below for it. 

Looking at homes in Kentucky! Big changes are ahead. I waited until I was more sure of what the situation was before telling more folks about this.
It's going to be in a city at least as big as K-Falls. Right now it looks like Ashland, KY. 

I'm aware there is quite a difference in climate and seems like a lot of homes are air-conditioned. Also most likely won't pick a home that will end up with flood damage; it'll be in a downtown setting much like my current setup. Summers are warm and there are skeeters, and like 50 some odd t'storm days a year? 😝

It'll be an adventure. Cities do have water main breaks just about on a every summer basis in that part of the US, so we'll probably have a regular rotation of backup drinking water when we shop. Just the little extra things I'll need to get used to in a different area. Maybe I'll see my first ever funnel cloud and/or tornado next year?

You'll get some supercells down there.

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8 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

I have exactly a month left in Klamath Falls (this house just sold to someone and all the inspections are complete). So I figured I'll make my signature short by taking a screen shot of my current one and laying an Imgur link below for it. 

Looking at homes in Kentucky! Big changes are ahead. I waited until I was more sure of what the situation was before telling more folks about this.
It's going to be in a city at least as big as K-Falls. Right now it looks like Ashland, KY. 

I'm aware there is quite a difference in climate and seems like a lot of homes are air-conditioned. Also most likely won't pick a home that will end up with flood damage; it'll be in a downtown setting much like my current setup. Summers are warm and there are skeeters, and like 50 some odd t'storm days a year? 😝

It'll be an adventure. Cities do have water main breaks just about on a every summer basis in that part of the US, so we'll probably have a regular rotation of backup drinking water when we shop. Just the little extra things I'll need to get used to in a different area. Maybe I'll see my first ever funnel cloud and/or tornado next year?

I’ll make sure to head down the road once I move to Indiana.

  • Like 1

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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11 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

I have exactly a month left in Klamath Falls (this house just sold to someone and all the inspections are complete). So I figured I'll make my signature short by taking a screen shot of my current one and laying an Imgur link below for it. 

Looking at homes in Kentucky! Big changes are ahead. I waited until I was more sure of what the situation was before telling more folks about this.
It's going to be in a city at least as big as K-Falls. Right now it looks like Ashland, KY. 

I'm aware there is quite a difference in climate and seems like a lot of homes are air-conditioned. Also most likely won't pick a home that will end up with flood damage; it'll be in a downtown setting much like my current setup. Summers are warm and there are skeeters, and like 50 some odd t'storm days a year? 😝

It'll be an adventure. Cities do have water main breaks just about on a every summer basis in that part of the US, so we'll probably have a regular rotation of backup drinking water when we shop. Just the little extra things I'll need to get used to in a different area. Maybe I'll see my first ever funnel cloud and/or tornado next year?

My Dad grew up in Ashland, Kentucky. It’s pretty similar in size to Klamath. On the Ohio River. My aunt and cousins live in Ironton, Ohio across the bridge.

  • Like 3

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It’s pretty darn likely warming will continue as long as CO₂ continues to increase just because of the basic physics of the atmosphere. Saying that maybe it won't because for some unexplained reason the sun might dim is a bit like saying money spent on a new roof (when the current one is leaking) may be wasted, because next year a meteor might hit it and require repairs anyhow. (And I can’t prove there won’t be a meteor, much like I can’t prove the sun won’t unexpectedly dim.)

You're totally ignoring the natural cycle aspect of this.  There is much we don't understand as of yet.

  • Like 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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