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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


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22 minutes ago, snow drift said:

In 2007 JB favored 1949-50 as his top analog. He's predicted a cold West before.

14 years ago!

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

14 years ago!

Predicting a warm west scenario in a second year nina seems pretty ridiculous to me as well. I think this winter will be decent atleast…not expecting anything major just one or two bouts of cold and a bit of snow. Think it’ll be a great year for mountain snowpack but in a La Niña year that’s pretty typical. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Well we have endured a fuckk ton of warmer than normal months. Only March was below normal over the last like 18 months. And we’ve almost caught on fire in the last 2 years so there’s that.

It will even out over the next few years.  You would have been saying the same thing in the late 1930s through mid 1940s.  That was another horrific period people don't talk about.  At least lately it's just mostly been the summers.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Predicting a warm west scenario in a second year nina seems pretty ridiculous to me as well. I think this winter will be decent atleast…not expecting anything major just one or two bouts of cold and a bit of snow. Think it’ll be a great year for mountain snowpack but in a La Niña year that’s pretty typical. 

Yeah...A western ridge seems very unlikely.  As I say the wave train being too flat would be our most likely path to a bust this winter.  If we can maintain the huge positive height / surface pressure anoms over the GOA we have been seeing this winter could be awesome.  I think the very chilly weather that is upcoming is a good omen.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It will even out over the next few years.  You would have been saying the same thing in the late 1930s through mid 1940s.  That was another horrific period people don't talk about.  At least lately it's just mostly been the summers.

It’ll be interesting to see how the next 10-20 years play out for temps here in the PNW and across the globe. You do have to admit though…humans definitely have an effect on global tempature rises. Releasing tons of CO2 into the atmosphere certainly does something. I do think you have a point about these things being cyclical…but there’s definitely a manmade element to the warming too we’re seeing now even if we’re in a naturally caused warmer post mini ice age rebound. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Very interestingly the last time we had a solidly cold October with a La Nina was 2008.  I was actually pretty surprised to see that just now.  A cold October with a La Nina is usually a pretty solid bet for a good winter...especially second and third year Ninas.

People who are not fans of cold Octobers should be rooting for this one being it's a second year Nina.  Years with cold a cold October during a second year Nina were 1950, 1955, 1971, 1984, and 2008.  All good ones.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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7 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

It’ll be interesting to see how the next 10-20 years play out for temps here in the PNW and across the globe. You do have to admit though…humans definitely have an effect on global tempature rises. Releasing tons of CO2 into the atmosphere certainly does something. I do think you have a point about these things being cyclical…but there’s definitely a manmade element to the warming too we’re seeing now even if we’re in a naturally caused warmer post mini ice age rebound. 

Ed Berry who is a VERY respected climate scientist is a denier of man caused global warming and he came up with a graphic that shows how miniscule the man caused CO2 contribution to the environment is compared to Mother Nature.  I wish I could find that graphic again.  It's literally like a mole hill next to a mountain.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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This area of grass was the one spot that was completely brown and cooked. Only took about 2 weeks to become lush green again. 

87007B7C-6455-4E87-B287-D3B00BAC85EB.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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39 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It will even out over the next few years.  You would have been saying the same thing in the late 1930s through mid 1940s.  That was another horrific period people don't talk about.  At least lately it's just mostly been the summers.

That stretch looks better with more cold and snow than what we have endured lately. I don’t think they went 4 straight winters without a sub-freezing high back then like what we are in the midst of.

I used to say it all flips around one day. It does…except for SW Oregon. Once we are all dead maybe things will change and the cycle will cool off again.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Ed Berry who is a VERY respected climate scientist is a denier of man caused global warming and he came up with a graphic that shows how miniscule the man caused CO2 contribution to the environment is compared to Mother Nature.  I wish I could find that graphic again.  It's literally like a mole hill next to a mountain.

Well either way the next decade or two will be pretty telling. To me…the current warming climate and industrialization go hand in hand…but I respect your opinion. Lots of the climate debate stuff has become very politically polarized and not founded in science rather emotion lately…as have many other things. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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If the models are anywhere near correct the first half of the this month is going to be notably chilly.  Can't wait to see how it plays out.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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8 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Poof goes Tuesday’s rain. Friday’s already went poof a few runs ago. Next Sunday is fizzling out too. Looks chilly though. Overall, looks cool and dry after the weekend. 

Probably going to be frost soon by the looks of it.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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6 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

We'll see.  The numeric data I've seen suggests a weak and short lived minus anomaly at 50mb.

What data is that?

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4 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I have no idea how the forecasters at Weatherbell managed to come up with a warm west / cold east forecast for this winter.  Pretty daring totally ignoring La Nina climo.  Their forecast falls into the least likely camp to verify.  If this winter is ruined for us I suspect it would be too flat of a ridge over the NE Pacific / GOA as opposed to a ridge along the West Coast.  I can't even think of a second year Nina that had a Western ridge problem.  1999-2000 was a disaster, but that was horrible for the entire country, and not caused by a Western ridge.

2017/18 would have been a ridgy winter if it weren’t for that SSW in late Jan/Feb.

That was also a -QBO winter with significant injection of wildfire smoke into the stratosphere, similar to this year.

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Very interestingly the last time we had a solidly cold October with a La Nina was 2008.  I was actually pretty surprised to see that just now.  A cold October with a La Nina is usually a pretty solid bet for a good winter...especially second and third year Ninas.

People who are not fans of cold Octobers should be rooting for this one being it's a second year Nina.  Years with cold a cold October during a second year Nina were 1950, 1955, 1971, 1984, and 2008.  All good ones.

There’s actually no decipherable correlation between October and winter temperatures, in any ENSO phase.

November is another story.

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Already down to 47 tonight.  Fired up the wood stove for the first time tonight.

  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

There’s actually no decipherable correlation between October and winter temperatures, in any ENSO phase.

November is another story.

The numbers I'm looking at certainly show there is a strong correlation.  Looking at distinctly cold Octobers with a Nina there is no doubt it heavily favors a cold outcome for winter here.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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26 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z GFS Ensembles - 850mb Temps/Precip

Portland

ens_image.php?geoid=135728&var=201&run=0

Seattle

ens_image.php?geoid=136221&var=201&run=0

This is a big time cold snap coming up.  Looks like there might be some continental flavor at times.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Very interestingly the last time we had a solidly cold October with a La Nina was 2008.  I was actually pretty surprised to see that just now.  A cold October with a La Nina is usually a pretty solid bet for a good winter...especially second and third year Ninas.

People who are not fans of cold Octobers should be rooting for this one being it's a second year Nina.  Years with cold a cold October during a second year Nina were 1950, 1955, 1971, 1984, and 2008.  All good ones.

We need late October in to most of November to be dry as well and then nil to no mountain snow until the models start showing lowland snow a la 2008.  That was just a weird winter.

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gfs-ens_z500a_namer_39.thumb.png.ee6515b0ba3e4f5272de225ada1cc91f.png

  • Snow 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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202304525_download(55).thumb.png.3e62da8f1cf8d89bd7a5ef41f7deb0e9.png

Wow, next Thursday looks absolutely gorgeous. 55/35 with tons of sun and a northerly breeze. Literally a perfect Seattle day for 99% of the population.

For me it's a tad too cloudless, but that's just my taste ;)

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

2017/18 would have been a ridgy winter if it weren’t for that SSW in late Jan/Feb.

That was also a -QBO winter with significant injection of wildfire smoke into the stratosphere, similar to this year.

As it is 2017-18 turned out to be a decent winter for us.  Solidly chilly December and then February cold and snow.  Certainly not what Weatherbell is forecasting for this winter.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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9 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

We need late October in to most of November to be dry as well and then nil to no mountain snow until the models start showing lowland snow a la 2008.  That was just a weird winter.

It was an interesting progression.   It had the classic cold October / warm November combo that so often works for us.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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7 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

202304525_download(55).thumb.png.3e62da8f1cf8d89bd7a5ef41f7deb0e9.png

Wow, next Thursday looks absolutely gorgeous. 55/35 with tons of sun and a northerly breeze. Literally a perfect Seattle day for 99% of the population.

For me it's a tad too cloudless, but that's just my taste ;)

My absolute favorite in October.  We had plenty of rain last month...time to get cold with frost at night.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Deep trough on the EURO long range.

The rest of the run is nice too.  I'm really liking this.  Some of the analogs popping up are years that ultimately had an Arctic outbreak in late October.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The rest of the run is nice too.  I'm really liking this.  Some of the analogs popping up are years that ultimately had an Arctic outbreak in late October.

Would make sense as that's when our coldest temps are now.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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That is one potent cold front on the 0z ECMWF.  It shows some places with late afternoon temps in the upper 40s on day 10.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Would make sense as that's when our coldest temps are now.

It's a La Nina.  Cold in October is good.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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32 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The numbers I'm looking at certainly show there is a strong correlation.  Looking at distinctly cold Octobers with a Nina there is no doubt it heavily favors a cold outcome for winter here.

La Niña generally favors cooler than average winters out there. You have to separate that low frequency component first.

Cold October/Niña is no more likely to precede a colder than average winter than warm October/Niña, particularly in the satellite era. In fact, some of the warmest Niña Octobers (such as 1988) preceded the most anomalous cold outbreaks in DJF.

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

La Niña generally favors cooler than average winters out there. You have to separate that low frequency component first.

Cold October/Niña is no more likely to precede a colder than average winter than warm October/Niña. In fact, some of the warmest Niña Octobers (such as 1988) preceded the most anomalous cold outbreaks in DJF.

Yeah at the end of the day it's just a reflection of a solid Niña background state. That should be reason enough to celebrate, since a properly working -ENSO pattern over our area is colder and wetter than usual, which believe it or not works out in our favor when it comes to lowland snow.

I suspect the reason warmer Niña Novembers are strongly associated with colder winters is simply due to getting warmer patterns out of the way before the best time of the winter comes through. Or maybe it runs a bit deeper; perhaps the very same Niña background state that produces colder Octobers and Decembers/Januaries produces warmer Novembers for whatever reason. Either way, I'm not really paying too much attention to October, and if November is warm and dry, then hoooooo boy you know I'll be excited.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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28 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

As it is 2017-18 turned out to be a decent winter for us.  Solidly chilly December and then February cold and snow.  Certainly not what Weatherbell is forecasting for this winter.

I have little faith in mapping of projected seasonal temperature departures. So much can happen on the subseasonal scale to throw it off completely. A few weeks is all it takes.

As things stand now, for what little it’s worth, I favor the early to middle part of winter for cold over the US, generally speaking. But it could be that the coldest departures in the PNW region occur later in the winter, well after the most significant cold anomalies have abated across (the majority of) the continent.

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