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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


The Blob

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And then there's 1955/56. Sometimes you're cold in November, then cold the rest of the winter. Our atmosphere is a chaotic thing.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Also, interesting to note the nature of the medium-frequency wave stations of late (ridging across the GOA/NPAC and NE-Canada). This is the inverse of the pattern most commonly observed from 2013-18.

Historically, this type of pattern has tended to precede high latitude blocking in November/December.

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A pleasant 46F and clear. Beautiful stars.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Got the night shift going! Just had my 1AM smoke.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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6 mornings from now.

GFS Temp.png

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  • Snow 3

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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10 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Not an ideal outcome at the ballpark but omg what a perfect night!!! The clear skies and crisp autumn night just made it feel like what October baseball is all about. Perfect weather!! 

D4C48121-CC62-4AFE-B05D-6DB85EB17DCF.jpeg

Neck and neck with my Blue Jays! It is going to be a heck of a finish for that 2nd WC spot! I wouldn't be mad though if the M's grabbed it over the Red Sox. C'MON!!!!

6z GFS in 1 hour 5 minutes

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6 hours ago, Cloud said:

Not an ideal outcome at the ballpark but omg what a perfect night!!! The clear skies and crisp autumn night just made it feel like what October baseball is all about. Perfect weather!! 

D4C48121-CC62-4AFE-B05D-6DB85EB17DCF.jpeg

Just slightly less than an ideal outcome.  🙁

My sons are going tonight with some friends.    Should be another nice night weatherwise.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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9 hours ago, GHweatherChris said:

We need late October in to most of November to be dry as well and then nil to no mountain snow until the models start showing lowland snow a la 2008.  That was just a weird winter.

That Fall was wet though or at least normal range give or take. There wasn't more than a full dry week between rains.

I specifically remember Flood Warnings in November that year. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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7 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

6 mornings from now.

GFS Temp.png

45 here? 🤡

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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9 hours ago, Phil said:

La Niña generally favors cooler than average winters out there. You have to separate that low frequency component first.

Cold October/Niña is no more likely to precede a colder than average winter than warm October/Niña, particularly in the satellite era. In fact, some of the warmest Niña Octobers (such as 1988) preceded the most anomalous cold outbreaks in DJF.

I'll have to put up the numbers and let people decide for themselves.  It's totally provable I'm right.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Got down to 42 this morning before clouds/fog rolled in. 48 now. 

Same here and SEA dropped to 46.  You know we're on a roll when we have below normal temps with above normal 850s.  This could be a legit cold October.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Wow!  The 12z GFS shows three really nippy nights in a row on this run.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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30 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Low of 37 in Corvallis!

Got to 36 here. No fog yet, but dewey enough on vehicles that it looks like it rained at sunrise.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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8 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Here’s why I am always pessimistic about rain. We lost 3-4” in the last 48 hours. 

 

image.png.b445c6b760038c9fccbd6906f5260cd4.png

 

image.thumb.png.ca2bb5e1f1eb4eaa6e92f2d18733ee0c.png

Comparing 16 day maps for just about anything will help the pessimistic go all pessimisty.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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29 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Comparing 16 day maps for just about anything will help the pessimistic go all pessimisty.

Why is it rarely the opposite? Why couldn’t 1” turn into 5”? The reason is because the vast majority of lows in our region end up north of where they are initially forecasted or they lose their oomph as the swing on in. 
 

The CPC gives us a high probability of above average precipitation in both the 6-10 day timeframe and the 8-14 day. They will have to change that whenever they update their products. 

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Thunderstorm came through Tulsa this morning, dropped 1.65” in an hour. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Thunderstorm came through Tulsa this morning, dropped 1.65” in an hour. 

That's a third of the last 13 months of precipitation here, in one hour 🤡

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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9 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Why is it rarely the opposite? Why couldn’t 1” turn into 5”? The reason is because the vast majority of lows in our region end up north of where they are initially forecasted or they lose their oomph as the swing on in. 
 

The CPC gives us a high probability of above average precipitation in both the 6-10 day timeframe and the 8-14 day. They will have to change that whenever they update their products. 

(Computer voice) 'I'm sorry Joshua but that is wrong think and can't be allowed'. :o 

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Lol we just had like a really wet pattern I’m not sure what the concern is more rain will come it’ll be just fine we’re headed into fall. This would be like complaining about the lack of snowfall coming up over the next week on the models immediately after it just dumped a foot of snow during a winter event. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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7 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Lol we just had like a really wet pattern I’m not sure what the concern is more rain will come it’ll be just fine we’re headed into fall. This would be like complaining about the lack of snowfall coming up over the next week on the models immediately after it just dumped a foot of snow during a winter event. 

I warned everybody in my introductory post that I love to complain about rain. Rain is my thing. I want moss, mushrooms, and mud. Yes, I need to move to SE Alaska.

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3 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

I warned everybody in my introductory post that I love to complain about rain. Rain is my thing. I want moss, mushrooms, and mud. Yes, I need to move to SE Alaska.

I get it, I hated how dry it was this summer too. I was down in Oregon for a week just got back on the 23rd the effects of the drought and June heatwave were still there even though it dumped rain the first 2 days I was there. The rain we got last month was really significant though I’m pretty sure we’re going to knock out the drought mostly or entirely this upcoming winter. I could DEFINITELY get behind living in SE Alaska too love the rain. Even this rainy climate sometimes isn’t enough for me. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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I’m pretty sure we’re going to get atleast one solidly wet month regionally this fall/winter. Will be +10 inches of rain for everyone atleast one month from BC all the way down to Eugene I’m calling it now. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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The 12z ECMWF shows 537 heights getting into northern WA with that super cold trough later in the run.  Pretty exceptional for this early.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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On the question of precip the GFS and ECMWF are relatively dry for the next 10 days.  The GFS spits out 0.1 and the ECMWF an even inch.  Generally really cold patterns aren't that wet.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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20 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Parts of the central valley had their driest water year ever. The eye popping stat is how much drier Redding was compared to their previous driest winter. Wow

20211002_123735.jpg

I think Sac also broke a record consecutive number of days without measurable rain. Close to 200!

  • scream 1

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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The EPS shows a strong cold signal for the NW at least through mid month.  It will be interesting to see if the second half ends up cold too.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The updated ECMWF seasonal forecast came out and it shows January with a decent signal for above normal GOA heights.  Looks like the most likely month to be cold this winter...at least with that model.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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32 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

It was brutally dry through most of Oregon too, and has been for the better part of a decade. That's why some of us are still concerned about dry model runs showing up now even though September was a bit wetter than normal.

A brief surplus of an inch or two more rainfall than normal does not break a drought of this severity, no matter how confident some people may be in their wishcasts.

With that acknowledged; I don't get the hype in wanting another Fall with periods of fake cold and dry. Nor is that pattern even necessary to get a nice snowy winter.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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4 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I'll have to put up the numbers and let people decide for themselves.  It's totally provable I'm right.

I’d love to see said data. I’ve looked at it every which way (within my abilities, at least) and have never found anything useful in terms of predictability.

The type of tropical forcing that promotes western troughing in October is completely different from that of DJF. Phase-8/1 MJO transits are climatologically the coldest for PNW region at this time of year. Come January the inverse is true.

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