Phil Posted October 2, 2021 Report Share Posted October 2, 2021 1 hour ago, snow_wizard said: The updated ECMWF seasonal forecast came out and it shows January with a decent signal for above normal GOA heights. Looks like the most likely month to be cold this winter...at least with that model. The Pacific does indeed look blocked up/shut down, verbatim. If that type of pattern verifies, it would certainly enhance cold air pooling in Canada and increase the odds of a cold outcome. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted October 2, 2021 Report Share Posted October 2, 2021 Can we put a lock on January being exceptionally cold with above normal heights in Alaska with down stream troughing over the PNW? I think this will a colder than normal winter with lots long long dry spells. Cold crisp beautiful sunshine. I could go for that with a few dustings of snow that last for a week or two. I'd like to skip wind storms please. 1 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 2, 2021 Report Share Posted October 2, 2021 Deese Ember. 1 2 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 2, 2021 Report Share Posted October 2, 2021 October harvesting... potatoes today. The garden has been a prolific producer this year. Everything has done awesome. Much more coming still. 8 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 3, 2021 Report Share Posted October 3, 2021 67/42 today…sunnier than I was expecting. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 3, 2021 Report Share Posted October 3, 2021 Incredibly the GFS and ECMWF have highs of 51 and 50 respectively on Tuesday for McCord. Cold! 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted October 3, 2021 Report Share Posted October 3, 2021 2 hours ago, Deweydog said: Deese Ember. Ach Toe Burr 1 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 3, 2021 Report Share Posted October 3, 2021 10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Incredibly the GFS and ECMWF have highs of 51 and 50 respectively on Tuesday for McCord. Cold! Not sure why McCord matters when its shows all of western WA being about the same. Its a matter of timing with the front... ECMWF shows low clouds and thick mid level clouds above the low clouds on Tuesday afternoon so it will be dark. Wednesday looks much more sunny though. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 3, 2021 Report Share Posted October 3, 2021 So..summer is over, right? 1 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 3, 2021 Report Share Posted October 3, 2021 Saw some low 70s in the valley today. 18z looked fairly wet. Beautiful evening in missouri. 5 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 3, 2021 Report Share Posted October 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Saw some low 70s in the valley today. 18z looked fairly wet. Beautiful evening in missouri. Where in Missouri? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 3, 2021 Report Share Posted October 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Where in Missouri? Branson/Table Rock Lake 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 3, 2021 Report Share Posted October 3, 2021 25 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Branson/Table Rock Lake Nice! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 3, 2021 Report Share Posted October 3, 2021 45/60˚F for the day. Mostly cloudy but dry. Made it to the top of Lookout Mountain so my legs should be tired and sore tomorrow. 1 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 3, 2021 Report Share Posted October 3, 2021 26 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Branson/Table Rock Lake What are you doing out there? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 3, 2021 Report Share Posted October 3, 2021 Was a fall clean up, finished boat winterization, put patio furniture away kind of day! Oh and I mowed, the grass is still pumping! Sun popped out for only about an hour today otherwise cloudy and calm. 61/45 on the day. Currently 55. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blob Posted October 3, 2021 Author Report Share Posted October 3, 2021 We went to the grotto today. It's so shaded they didn't have much damage down below from the heat. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blob Posted October 3, 2021 Author Report Share Posted October 3, 2021 Looks like King 5 will be getting another meteorologist this month from Palm Springs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Lake Oswego Posted October 3, 2021 Report Share Posted October 3, 2021 4 hours ago, hawkstwelve said: Actually if you compare the 06z GFS on 9/30 to the 18z GFS on 9/30, since that was the date you used in your example, you can see it does swing wildly the other way. 1.6 for PDX on the 06z vs 4.1 on the 18z. But that's kind of the problem, isn't it? When your hopes and dreams of bountiful rainfall ride or die on 384hr precip maps you are bound to be disappointed often, especially when you mentally block the swings that happen in the opposite direction of your preconceived narrative. It's just like when we all remind ourselves to not get worked up when the pepto starts showing up on 384hr snowfall maps (even though some of us still do). We know it will change countless more times before that date actually gets here. No point in lamenting how it "always gets taken away" when it inevitably does so. Mother Nature will shake out how she wants to shake out and more often than not, things have a tendency to balance themselves out regardless of what the 384hr map says. Roll with the punches. Really, it’s not the long-term that I’m talking about. Yes, I posted 16 day maps, but it’s the rug pulling in the short-term that I’m talking about. I am very aware of how increasingly inaccurate models are as the run date and forecast date spread grows. This last Thursday is an example of rug pulling. Next Tuesday (although the 18z Euro puts us in the “bullseye”. Yea right.) appears to be one. Next Sunday is another. Next Sunday is pushing the reliable timeframe a bit. I know. Admittedly, the two strong September events over-performed. That is extremely rare of late. At one point , I had counted about 15 under-performers in a row for PDX. I can guarantee that nobody on this forum cares more about my area’s precipitation than me. That’s what I focus on in model riding. It genuinely affects my emotions. I see mostly every run of every model that I have access to. So, I am not speaking based on lack of information. Lack of bias, knowledge, and objectiveness are certainly debatable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted October 3, 2021 Report Share Posted October 3, 2021 2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Saw some low 70s in the valley today. 18z looked fairly wet. Beautiful evening in missouri. Looks like a Summer Evening in the South. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted October 3, 2021 Report Share Posted October 3, 2021 2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Saw some low 70s in the valley today. 18z looked fairly wet. Beautiful evening in missouri. After the rain? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted October 3, 2021 Report Share Posted October 3, 2021 2 hours ago, TT-SEA said: Not sure why McCord matters when its shows all of western WA being about the same. Its a matter of timing with the front... ECMWF shows low clouds and thick mid level clouds above the low clouds on Tuesday afternoon so it will be dark. Wednesday looks much more sunny though. Jim didn't say anything about Wednesday though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 3, 2021 Report Share Posted October 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said: After the rain? Yes there were some very heavy showers today. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Link Posted October 3, 2021 Report Share Posted October 3, 2021 8 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said: Lol we just had like a really wet pattern I’m not sure what the concern is more rain will come it’ll be just fine we’re headed into fall. This would be like complaining about the lack of snowfall coming up over the next week on the models immediately after it just dumped a foot of snow during a winter event. 1 moderate to heavy rain storm (depending on your locale) with 2 weeks of dryness and more dryness likely = really wet pattern..................(insert compute error here) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 3, 2021 Report Share Posted October 3, 2021 11 minutes ago, Link said: 1 moderate to heavy rain storm (depending on your locale) with 2 weeks of dryness and more dryness likely = really wet pattern..................(insert compute error here) There’s rain on the models…there’s no 2 week dry streak coming. I get it there’s definitely been drought concerns it’s real I’ve been talking about it all summer long too. But honestly some of y’all sound a bit dramatic to me. Recent rains have significantly helped…fire seasons over the rain is returning. It’s not just going to be dry forever and ever in the winter time too. After all the rain we’ve just had and this is on the models what is there to complain about honestly? 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 3, 2021 Report Share Posted October 3, 2021 I’m not the forum police and I should just let people say and feel however they want without me debating. But summers over rains returning there even getting some in Northern California…the drought situation has really improved will continue to improve. At this point we’ve just gotta hope spring isn’t as dry as the last few have been so we’re not in bad shape headed into next summer that’s what I’m more concerned about. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 3, 2021 Report Share Posted October 3, 2021 1 hour ago, The Blob said: Looks like King 5 will be getting another meteorologist this month from Palm Springs Wow he is going to have actual weather to cover! I don’t imagine there was a whole lot to cover in Palm Springs. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blob Posted October 3, 2021 Author Report Share Posted October 3, 2021 16 minutes ago, MossMan said: Wow he is going to have actual weather to cover! I don’t imagine there was a whole lot to cover in Palm Springs. Endless hot with haboobs. I looked into him and he's originally from BC so he's super stoked to be back in the PNW. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 3, 2021 Report Share Posted October 3, 2021 40 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: There’s rain on the models…there’s no 2 week dry streak coming. I get it there’s definitely been drought concerns it’s real I’ve been talking about it all summer long too. But honestly some of y’all sound a bit dramatic to me. Recent rains have significantly helped…fire seasons over the rain is returning. It’s not just going to be dry forever and ever in the winter time too. After all the rain we’ve just had and this is on the models what is there to complain about honestly? I agree, not like the first half of October is our peak rainy season either. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 3, 2021 Report Share Posted October 3, 2021 1 hour ago, GHweatherChris said: Jim didn't say anything about Wednesday though. No... I did. Referring to something I like. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted October 3, 2021 Report Share Posted October 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: No... I did. Referring to something I like. No reason to do that on someone else's post. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 3, 2021 Report Share Posted October 3, 2021 The first half to 2/3 of October is often pretty dry. This year it at least will be cool with a few fronts and no summer like weather on the horizon. And this is after we just had a very wet pattern with a top 10 wet September for the airport era. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 3, 2021 Report Share Posted October 3, 2021 13 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: No reason to do that on someone else's post. Just stop... you are trying way too hard. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted October 3, 2021 Report Share Posted October 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Just stop... you are trying way too hard. No effort was used, you set it up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 3, 2021 Report Share Posted October 3, 2021 A pleasant 51F out there. Made some cash at the books again too. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 3, 2021 Report Share Posted October 3, 2021 39 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I agree, not like the first half of October is our peak rainy season either. Don’t get me wrong the drought has been significant and serious down south especially…but let’s not discount how wet September was and the first half of October’s shaping up to be decent. I’m pretty confident Oregon will be in much better shape in terms of the drought once spring 2022 rolls around. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 3, 2021 Report Share Posted October 3, 2021 The 0z GFS shows us still in deep troughing at the very end of the run now. This looks quite impressive. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 3, 2021 Report Share Posted October 3, 2021 24 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: No effort was used, you set it up. No I didn't. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 3, 2021 Report Share Posted October 3, 2021 18z and 00z seem wet in the long range. The whining works again. 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 3, 2021 Report Share Posted October 3, 2021 Talk about interesting. I was just looking at the monthly temperature averages for SEA and realized they just narrowly missed being warmer than September 1967 last year. If not for the smoke from the fires there is little doubt last September would have dethroned 1967 for the warmest September on record. There was so much going on last year I hadn't even realized the month was THAT warm. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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