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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


The Blob

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

The updated ECMWF seasonal forecast came out and it shows January with a decent signal for above normal GOA heights.  Looks like the most likely month to be cold this winter...at least with that model.

The Pacific does indeed look blocked up/shut down, verbatim.

If that type of pattern verifies, it would certainly enhance cold air pooling in Canada and increase the odds of a cold outcome.

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Can we put a lock on January being exceptionally cold with above normal heights in Alaska with down stream troughing over the PNW?

I think this will a colder than normal winter with lots long long dry spells.  Cold crisp beautiful sunshine.  I could go for that with a few dustings of snow that last for a week or two.

I'd like to skip wind storms please.

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October harvesting... potatoes today.    The garden has been a prolific producer this year.   Everything has done awesome.   Much more coming still.  

20211002_154024.jpg

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Incredibly the GFS and ECMWF have highs of 51 and 50 respectively on Tuesday for McCord.  Cold!

  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Incredibly the GFS and ECMWF have highs of 51 and 50 respectively on Tuesday for McCord.  Cold!

Not sure why McCord matters when its shows all of western WA being about the same.   Its a matter of timing with the front... ECMWF shows low clouds and thick mid level clouds above the low clouds on Tuesday afternoon so it will be dark.    Wednesday looks much more sunny though.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Saw some low 70s in the valley today. 18z looked fairly wet. Beautiful evening in missouri. 

61EA4CCD-F392-430C-BDEC-68655F2918AF.jpeg

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  • Storm 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Saw some low 70s in the valley today. 18z looked fairly wet. Beautiful evening in missouri. 

61EA4CCD-F392-430C-BDEC-68655F2918AF.jpeg

 

Where in Missouri?

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 

Where in Missouri?

Branson/Table Rock Lake 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Was a fall clean up, finished boat winterization, put patio furniture away kind of day! Oh and I mowed, the grass is still pumping! Sun popped out for only about an hour today otherwise cloudy and calm. 
61/45 on the day.

Currently 55. 

4B9EB270-669E-4724-B8C2-46A9AEFCB12B.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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4 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Actually if you compare the 06z GFS on 9/30 to the 18z GFS on 9/30, since that was the date you used in your example, you can see it does swing wildly the other way. 1.6 for PDX on the 06z vs 4.1 on the 18z. But that's kind of the problem, isn't it? When your hopes and dreams of bountiful rainfall ride or die on 384hr precip maps you are bound to be disappointed often, especially when you mentally block the swings that happen in the opposite direction of your preconceived narrative.

It's just like when we all remind ourselves to not get worked up when the pepto starts showing up on 384hr snowfall maps (even though some of us still do). We know it will change countless more times before that date actually gets here. No point in lamenting how it "always gets taken away" when it inevitably does so.

Mother Nature will shake out how she wants to shake out and more often than not, things have a tendency to balance themselves out regardless of what the 384hr map says. Roll with the punches.

qpf_acc.us_state_wa.png

 

qpf_acc.us_state_wa.png

Really, it’s not the long-term that I’m talking about. Yes, I posted 16 day maps, but it’s the rug pulling in the short-term that I’m talking about. I am very aware of how increasingly inaccurate models are as the run date and forecast date spread grows. 

This last Thursday is an example of rug pulling. Next Tuesday (although the 18z Euro puts us in the “bullseye”. Yea right.) appears to be one. Next Sunday is another. Next Sunday is pushing the reliable timeframe a bit. I know. 

Admittedly, the two strong September events over-performed. That is extremely rare of late. At one point , I had counted about 15 under-performers in a row for PDX. 
 
I can guarantee that nobody on this forum cares more about my area’s precipitation than me. That’s what I focus on in model riding. It genuinely affects my emotions. I see mostly every run of every model that I have access to. So, I am not speaking based on lack of information. Lack of bias, knowledge, and objectiveness are certainly debatable.

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Not sure why McCord matters when its shows all of western WA being about the same.   Its a matter of timing with the front... ECMWF shows low clouds and thick mid level clouds above the low clouds on Tuesday afternoon so it will be dark.    Wednesday looks much more sunny though.  

Jim didn't say anything about Wednesday though.

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4 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

After the rain?

Yes there were some very heavy showers today. 

  • Storm 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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8 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Lol we just had like a really wet pattern I’m not sure what the concern is more rain will come it’ll be just fine we’re headed into fall. This would be like complaining about the lack of snowfall coming up over the next week on the models immediately after it just dumped a foot of snow during a winter event. 

1 moderate to heavy rain storm (depending on your locale) with 2 weeks of dryness and more dryness likely = really wet pattern..................🤔🛸(insert compute error here)

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11 minutes ago, Link said:

1 moderate to heavy rain storm (depending on your locale) with 2 weeks of dryness and more dryness likely = really wet pattern..................🤔🛸(insert compute error here)

There’s rain on the models…there’s no 2 week dry streak coming. I get it there’s definitely been drought concerns it’s real I’ve been talking about it all summer long too. But honestly some of y’all sound a bit dramatic to me. Recent rains have significantly helped…fire seasons over the rain is returning. It’s not just going to be dry forever and ever in the winter time too. After all the rain we’ve just had and this is on the models what is there to complain about honestly? 

BD905D9C-0AD5-4238-BA37-928D255398D5.jpeg

8F6069DE-41FC-49A0-9063-62CD3508BAF9.jpeg

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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I’m not the forum police and I should just let people say and feel however they want without me debating. But summers over rains returning there even getting some in Northern California…the drought situation has really improved will continue to improve. At this point we’ve just gotta hope spring isn’t as dry as the last few have been so we’re not in bad shape headed into next summer that’s what I’m more concerned about. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 hour ago, The Blob said:

Looks like King 5 will be getting another meteorologist this month from Palm Springs 

Screenshot_20211002-194342_Facebook.jpg

Wow he is going to have actual weather to cover! I don’t imagine there was a whole lot to cover in Palm Springs. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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16 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Wow he is going to have actual weather to cover! I don’t imagine there was a whole lot to cover in Palm Springs. 

Endless hot with haboobs. I looked into him and he's originally from BC so he's super stoked to be back in the PNW.

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40 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

There’s rain on the models…there’s no 2 week dry streak coming. I get it there’s definitely been drought concerns it’s real I’ve been talking about it all summer long too. But honestly some of y’all sound a bit dramatic to me. Recent rains have significantly helped…fire seasons over the rain is returning. It’s not just going to be dry forever and ever in the winter time too. After all the rain we’ve just had and this is on the models what is there to complain about honestly? 

BD905D9C-0AD5-4238-BA37-928D255398D5.jpeg

8F6069DE-41FC-49A0-9063-62CD3508BAF9.jpeg

I agree, not like the first half of October is our peak rainy season either. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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A pleasant 51F out there. Made some cash at the books again too.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

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39 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I agree, not like the first half of October is our peak rainy season either. 

Don’t get me wrong the drought has been significant and serious down south especially…but let’s not discount how wet September was and the first half of October’s shaping up to be decent. I’m pretty confident Oregon will be in much better shape in terms of the drought once spring 2022 rolls around. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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The 0z GFS shows us still in deep troughing at the very end of the run now.  This looks quite impressive.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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18z and 00z seem wet in the long range. The whining works again. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Talk about interesting.  I was just looking at the monthly temperature averages for SEA and realized they just narrowly missed being warmer than September 1967 last year.  If not for the smoke from the fires there is little doubt last September would have dethroned 1967 for the warmest September on record.  There was so much going on last year I hadn't even realized the month was THAT warm.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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