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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


The Blob

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2 hours ago, MossMan said:

Drizzling and 52 currently. 

I'm tired of this 24/7 clear and that bright orb in the sky.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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8 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

Only 1 winter in the past 50 years made the cut and even it was 37 years ago. 😞 

That would make it happening this year a really big deal.  Right now the chances are pretty decent of it happening.  The model runs are kind of OMG right now.  The 12z GFS is going for highs in the mid 40s on Wednesday of next week for the Seattle area.  That would be absolute top tier cold for so early.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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7 hours ago, Phil said:

This is a swing and a miss. You have to demonstrate that Niña/cold October is statistically more likely to precede a cold winter than Niña/warm October (hint: the ratio of warm/cold Niña Octobers to cold winters is roughly equal).

Instead you’ve cherry picked 8 years *out of the last 150* that fit your desired criteria. You’re merely re-printing La Niña climo (and climate change, considering all of these occurred at least 50 years ago, minus 1984 which was a post-volcanic winter).

What about the other 17 top-25 coldest Octobers that you didn’t mention? What about the multitude of Niña/warm October years that preceded cold/snowy winters out there (1988/89 and 2010/11 being just 2 examples of many)?

If you don’t believe me, I’ll run through all Niña Octobers since 1850, yet again. I’ve only done it every year for the past decade.

I'm going to do a similar look at the coldest Octobers with a Nina from 1960 to present later today and see how that looks.  I think the key is the scope of how cold the October in question is.  Sharply cold ones seem to be much more meaningful than just somewhat cold ones.

I don't see what is wrong about screening the coldest Octobers through the cold ENSO mesh.  It's kind of germane to what we are seeing this season.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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6 hours ago, Phil said:

Maybe this will assuage those fears.

2nd strongest SSW signal on the seasonal ECMWF since its inception. Strongest signal was 2008/09, the other three notable cases were 2016/17, 2017/18, and 2006/07. All of these winters performed in the PNW region.

On the contrary, the strong-PV projections tended to result in crappy winters in the West (2012/13, 2015/16, 2019/20, 2004/05, 1994/95, etc).

7C946300-C8B9-4C07-A7C8-EF2E755CA3E4.jpeg

That is pretty exciting stuff.  2008-09 and 2016-17 were really solid winters.  January 2007 was a real gem (by 21st century standards) here.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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5 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

06z is full-on Niña. NW onshore flow with plenty of cold nights and chilly days. Even throws in a few highs around 45. December weather in October. Classic -ENSO.

Almost more like classic 1945 to early 1970s -ENSO.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 hours ago, ..... said:

Jim are you going to be able to keep this up all winter?  My god you are in rare form.

I'll pray for you.  Don't let your mentals get the better of you.

I mean yeah, some of the models show some cooler weather but fawning over a high temp of 50?  Pace yourself big guy.

I've had a really good feeling about this one for months now.  I was really digging spring too, but could have done without some of the heat in early to mid summer.  This coming pattern is not business as usual.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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FWIW worth I have a longtime friend (going on 40 years) who can vouch for the fact I have always been wild about cold Octobers.  He says when October is cold he knows there is a good chance things are going to get serious.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

FWIW worth I have a longtime friend (going on 40 years) who can vouch for the fact I have always been wild about cold Octobers.  He says when October is cold he knows there is a good chance things are going to get serious.

Well... that settles it once and for all.  😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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850s drop to a pretty amazing -3 on the 12z GFS with the ensemble mean at -1.6 for the second trough.  We have a really solid shot at the first half of the month coming in at a -5 departure or so.  Maybe colder.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Here is something you guys might like.  I did the cold October  / cold ENSO thing from 1960 to present and the results are very obvious.  The first graphic is Dec - Feb following the top 10 cold Octobers, the second is top 10 cold Octobers screened through cold ENSO, and the next is all cold ENSO winters.  I was only able to fit 1960 through 2016-17 on there, but the other two (2017-18 and 2020-21) would not have changed the result much.

Even I was surprised at how clear the signal is.

 

coldest Octobers post 1960.png

cold octobers post 1960 with cold enso.png

cold enso Octobers post 1960.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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56 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I've had a really good feeling about this one for months now.  I was really digging spring too, but could have done without some of the heat in early to mid summer.  This coming pattern is not business as usual.

I hope it all works out and you get the fall/winter of your dreams.  For all the work you put in it would be nice to see an epic winter unfold.  Once where it's so cold and there is so much snow that you just can't take it anymore.

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2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

That would make it happening this year a really big deal.  Right now the chances are pretty decent of it happening.  The model runs are kind of OMG right now.  The 12z GFS is going for highs in the mid 40s on Wednesday of next week for the Seattle area.  That would be absolute top tier cold for so early.

We've had top tier cold in October so many times over the years. I would love to save it for December or January.

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3 minutes ago, snow drift said:

We've had top tier cold in October so many times over the years. I would love to save it for December or January.

It's a good omen in this context.  As you've seen in my previous posts we haven't had a top tier cold October with a Nina since 1984.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Hopefully the details will work out right for some frost with all of this troughing.  The models are certainly showing the potential for clear nights with unseasonably cold air in place.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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5 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

And there it is. You can tell when the wet season is upon us when Jim starts posting about how 1950 is an analog for this year.

I mean, it’ll happen again some day.

But probably in a Niña/+QBO just before solar maximum. That’s the goldilocks setup for sustained -PNA/GOA ridging.

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

It's a good omen in this context.  As you've seen in my previous posts we haven't had a top tier cold October with a Nina since 1984.

Last year was top tier over here. Snow accumulating in Spokane during the day on October 23rd qualifies as top tier in my book.

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Not everyday you see the EPS mean going for 850s 8C below normal at day 9.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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58 minutes ago, Phil said:

I mean, it’ll happen again some day.

But probably in a Niña/+QBO just before solar maximum. That’s the goldilocks setup for sustained -PNA/GOA ridging.

Just to be clear I'm not calling 1949 an analog anyway.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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36 minutes ago, snow drift said:

Last year was top tier over here. Snow accumulating in Spokane during the day on October 23rd qualifies as top tier in my book.

Big difference between an event and a monthly average.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

This looks pretty nice. More rain in Northern California. 

43580851-873E-4FE2-8106-E8C730DCC70D.jpeg

They're the ones that really need it anyway.  I would be fine with some clear / cold days in the mix.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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A lot of great analogs in the CPC mix.  Even 2007 came close to some great things and was a cold winter overall.  Most were better than that one though.  Kind of reminds me to mention that 2007 was kind of poor man's 1970.  That winter had plenty of lowland snow in most places, but just missed greatness south of about Everett.  Probably no accident 1970 is also showing up as an analog on a consistent basis, as is the more amplified / cold 1971.  Those early 1970s snows hold a special place in my heart as they are the first big snows I can really remember.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Lets analyze all cold-ENSOs years for W-WA in the satellite era, comparing October, and their subsequent DJFs.

Cold-ENSO/Cold October years: 1983, 1984, 1985, 1995, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2007, 2008, 2012, 2013, 2016, 2017.

Cold-ENSO/warm October years: 1978, 1988, 1998, 2005, 2010.

Obviously more years in the cold October group given cold ENSO statistically favors cold Octobers. And some cases (such as 1998 and 2011) were borderline.

So how do the subsequent DJFs stack up? It turns out the cold-ENSO/warm October years average slightly colder than the cold October group. Statistically insignificant, however, likely a result of sample size/random variability.

56D44158-6787-49D6-ACBA-9F1D80F95450.png

C3053892-435E-4669-93A2-3ED5E317D181.png

1F276076-501C-4EEE-BED6-C78D9C550C8E.png

4EEDC8C6-BAFC-4392-9617-C008D00DDD6B.png

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In other words, a cold October under -ENSO has been no more/less likely to precede a cold DJF in the PNW region during the satellite era.

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Only a January 1950 redux would satisfy all on this forum. Lol

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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FWIW, some of the most memorable -ENSO winters in PNW region have been preceded by warm Octobers.

1915/16, 1942/43, 1978/79, 1988/89, 2010/11, and most recently 2020/21, were all preceded by warm Octobers.

I’m certain there are others I’m missing as well.

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

In other words, a cold October under -ENSO has been no more/less likely to precede a cold DJF in the PNW region during the satellite era.

Here in the foothills October precip is a good indicator. I know you think that’s bunk , but it’s a trend I have noticed.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Here in the foothills October precip is a good indicator. I know you think that’s bunk , but it’s a trend I have noticed.

If we're going off dry Octobers, the only time that worked was in 2013 down here.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Here in the foothills October precip is a good indicator. I know you think that’s bunk , but it’s a trend I have noticed.

We went through that data over the summer. There’s no statistically significant correlation there, either.

Our memories are ridden with errors and missing pieces. This is true even of the simplest stuff, let alone complex stuff like weather over weeks/months. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve been “certain” of something I’d remembered, only to discover I was completely wrong.

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29 minutes ago, Phil said:

We went through that data over the summer. There’s no statistically significant correlation there, either.

Our memories are ridden with errors and missing pieces. This is true even of the simplest stuff, let alone complex stuff like weather over weeks/months. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve been “certain” of something I’d remembered, only to discover I was completely wrong.

So true... happens to all of us.   Confirmation bias is a b*tch.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

Lets analyze all cold-ENSOs years for W-WA in the satellite era, comparing October, and their subsequent DJFs.

Cold-ENSO/Cold October years: 1983, 1984, 1985, 1995, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2007, 2008, 2012, 2013, 2016, 2017.

Cold-ENSO/warm October years: 1978, 1988, 1998, 2005, 2010.

Obviously more years in the cold October group given cold ENSO statistically favors cold Octobers. And some cases (such as 1998 and 2011) were borderline.

So how do the subsequent DJFs stack up? It turns out the cold-ENSO/warm October years average slightly colder than the cold October group. Statistically insignificant, however, likely a result of sample size/random variability.

56D44158-6787-49D6-ACBA-9F1D80F95450.png

C3053892-435E-4669-93A2-3ED5E317D181.png

1F276076-501C-4EEE-BED6-C78D9C550C8E.png

4EEDC8C6-BAFC-4392-9617-C008D00DDD6B.png

 

1978-79 skews that pretty massively since it was a historic winter. And calling it -ENSO is pretty dubious, it was pretty much flat neutral and certainly not a developed Nina.

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18z GFS has widespread low to mid 30s on this run early in week two.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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