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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


The Blob

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

In other words, a cold October under -ENSO has been no more/less likely to precede a cold DJF in the PNW region during the satellite era.

Did you see my maps?  They are just as legitimate.  I carefully explained I was looking at just the really cold Octobers.  That is a significant detail.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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52 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Only 56/53 spread today here still…haven’t had any sun yet. 

It managed to drop to 50 here.  Today has been a gloom fest.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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57 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

 

1978-79 skews that pretty massively since it was a historic winter. And calling it -ENSO is pretty dubious, it was pretty much flat neutral and certainly not a developed Nina.

That’s the problem with employing stringent thresholds to describe fluid phenomena. The summer/autumn of 1978 did technically meet La Niña criteria, however. And the atmosphere reflected a more -ENSO type circulation into/through the winter, as well.

Where to draw these lines of distinction is debatable, as there are multiple examples of weaker SSTA reflections that coincided with more prominent atmospheric signals, and vice versa.

Regardless, removing 1978/79 doesn’t meaningfully change the frequency distribution (even if it swings then mean a tad).

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Did you see my maps?  They are just as legitimate.  As I've said the scope of how cold the October is important.  That is a significant detail.

Your maps are not helpful because you fail to address the important question: Whether cold winters are more likely to follow cold Octobers in -ENSO *compared to warm Octobers in -ENSO*.

Without such a distinction, you aren’t treating October as a leading indicator of predictability, because you have nothing to reference it against within the population of -ENSO winters.

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We’re just figuring out that La Niña is good with extra steps lol

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

We’re just figuring out that La Niña is good with extra steps lol

Precisely this. 😂

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2 hours ago, Phil said:

Lets analyze all cold-ENSOs years for W-WA in the satellite era, comparing October, and their subsequent DJFs.

Cold-ENSO/Cold October years: 1983, 1984, 1985, 1995, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2007, 2008, 2012, 2013, 2016, 2017.

Cold-ENSO/warm October years: 1978, 1988, 1998, 2005, 2010.

Obviously more years in the cold October group given cold ENSO statistically favors cold Octobers. And some cases (such as 1998 and 2011) were borderline.

So how do the subsequent DJFs stack up? It turns out the cold-ENSO/warm October years average slightly colder than the cold October group. Statistically insignificant, however, likely a result of sample size/random variability.

56D44158-6787-49D6-ACBA-9F1D80F95450.png

C3053892-435E-4669-93A2-3ED5E317D181.png

1F276076-501C-4EEE-BED6-C78D9C550C8E.png

4EEDC8C6-BAFC-4392-9617-C008D00DDD6B.png

Wow -ENSO averages colder than normal overall? Who knew! 😱😱😱😱😱😱😱

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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3 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Ugly wall to wall sunshine day here. I’m very ready for consistently gloomy and wet weather. No sign that’s coming anytime soon. 

Been longing for these days. 60, off/on light rain. ;)

IMG_1861.JPG

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Just 10 days away!

GFS Temp.png

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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1 minute ago, The Blob said:

Is that New California? 

Whatever it is - back when it had trees, clouds and RAIN!

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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8 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Just 10 days away!

GFS Temp.png

If the 18z GFS is correct there is going to be frost for many of us soon.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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6 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

56/53 is the final number today with 0.01” and only a couple small peeks of blue sky very noice. 

BTW...for your stats it should be highs 32 or below and lows 32 or below.  That's how the NWS does it at least.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Nice to see the temps lower inland than on the coast already.  Early for that on the highs.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

That’s the problem with employing stringent thresholds to describe fluid phenomena. The summer/autumn of 1978 did technically meet La Niña criteria, however. And the atmosphere reflected a more -ENSO type circulation into/through the winter, as well.

Where to draw these lines of distinction is debatable, as there are multiple examples of weaker SSTA reflections that coincided with more prominent atmospheric signals, and vice versa.

Regardless, removing 1978/79 doesn’t meaningfully change the frequency distribution (even if it swings then mean a tad).

Looks like it came up a bit short on the ONI reanalysis.

I agree though that the overall correlation is pretty weak and this stuff often falls into the trap of confirmation bias. Terrible winters like 1999-00 and 1966-67 had pretty reasonably cool stretches in October and led to nothing. I think Jim is talking mainly about the top tier cold months, but the sample size among those is so weak from recent decades that it's hard to draw any kind of pattern.

FWIW there are also some years like October 2016 grouped in with the cold Octobers even though they were generally a bit warmer than average in the region. That month was a total freakshow though and probably the cloudiest October on record here.

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20 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

BTW...for your stats it should be highs 32 or below and lows 32 or below.  That's how the NWS does it at least.

Yea I know it’s just easier this way lol

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Looking at the latest sat pic it's pretty hard to believe how much of the state is clear.  You would never guess it the way it looks here.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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12 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Looks like it came up a bit short on the ONI reanalysis.

I agree though that the overall correlation is pretty weak and this stuff often falls into the trap of confirmation bias. Terrible winters like 1999-00 and 1966-67 had pretty reasonably cool stretches in October and led to nothing. I think Jim is talking mainly about the top tier cold months, but the sample size among those is so weak from recent decades that it's hard to draw any kind of pattern.

FWIW there are also some years like October 2016 grouped in with the cold Octobers even though they were generally a bit warmer than average in the region. That month was a total freakshow though and probably the cloudiest October on record here.

Yeah...what I'm talking about works well for the really cold Octobers.  Still remains to be seen if this one will be, but I would love to see it.  Still can't believe we haven't had a really cold October in a La Nina season since 1984.  Especially with all of the October cold snaps this century.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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@SilverFallsAndrew When are you headed to Montana to camp again? Early next week is looking increasingly snowy/cold...

1614527576_ScreenShot2021-10-03at7_00_16PM.thumb.png.10f4e659fe4db25c15d2e04be49ef048.png

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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40 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

If the 18z GFS is correct there is going to be frost for many of us soon.

Only needs to get down to 36!

Though knowing SeaTac it will stay above 50° lol

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

For those scoring at home, regardless of how the next four weeks play December is still going be mash potatoes and gravy.  

Probably too kold for naked badminton huh. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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I was kinda surprised that Oct 2016 high averaged -5.3 degrees from normal but the Mean was only -0.7 in the end.

Loved the rain that Fall though. It feels like we can't get those back these days. 2.48" fell at KLMT that month.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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16-17 was the last winter in which we had a sub-freezing high.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_35.thumb.png.a949e9ab98ffb18f25a61119bc698e68.png

That's legit

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Every single day on the 18z runs below average. All 16 of them. Some by -7 to -10 departures. Niña!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Went clothe shopping with couple of friends today, both Seattle natives. They both were adamant about their appreciation of this cooler weather.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

16-17 was the last winter in which we had a sub-freezing high.

Wow!  That is a shocking stat.  I had two last winter alone.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, Kayla said:

@SilverFallsAndrew When are you headed to Montana to camp again? Early next week is looking increasingly snowy/cold...

1614527576_ScreenShot2021-10-03at7_00_16PM.thumb.png.10f4e659fe4db25c15d2e04be49ef048.png

I may be heading out there in about 3 weeks, I'll be anxiously watching the weather there as it gets closer.  I would love to see some cold/snow, but I'm coming out to watch my son, and I've heard Bobcat stadium can get pretty brutal as it gets into late October into November, so maybe it holds off until after the game 😄

 

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13 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Never too cold. Most people bring their own personal fluffer to address those issues.

Good way to avoid the shrinkage concerns but duct tape and hand warmers are a good alternative. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

16-17 was the last winter in which we had a sub-freezing high.

That is a long time.   Dallas Texas had 8 sub-freezing highs last winter.   If it can happen there then it can happen in Oregon.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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