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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


The Blob

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2 hours ago, Kayla said:

@SilverFallsAndrew When are you headed to Montana to camp again? Early next week is looking increasingly snowy/cold...

1614527576_ScreenShot2021-10-03at7_00_16PM.thumb.png.10f4e659fe4db25c15d2e04be49ef048.png

We were thinking of hitting up

wyoming instead... might have to go even further south!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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21 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

I may be heading out there in about 3 weeks, I'll be anxiously watching the weather there as it gets closer.  I would love to see some cold/snow, but I'm coming out to watch my son, and I've heard Bobcat stadium can get pretty brutal as it gets into late October into November, so maybe it holds off until after the game 😄

 

Montana teams are kind of crushing it this year! We went to a couple of snow games our first couple of years here. It is always a fun atmosphere but the energy in a snow game brings it up to another level! 

Mid to late October is normally when we see our first significant snows so this year looks to be right on track. As long as we don't see below zero weather again this month then I'm okay with it!

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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81/35 today! Hopefully the last 80 of the year.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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44 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

I may be heading out there in about 3 weeks, I'll be anxiously watching the weather there as it gets closer.  I would love to see some cold/snow, but I'm coming out to watch my son, and I've heard Bobcat stadium can get pretty brutal as it gets into late October into November, so maybe it holds off until after the game 😄

 

Your boy plays football out there, thats awesome!!

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15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We were thinking of hitting up

wyoming instead... might have to go even further south!

Yeah...Colorado looks pretty nice next week!

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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30 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That is a long time.   Dallas Texas had 8 sub-freezing highs last winter.   If it can happen there then it can happen in Oregon.  

Looks like Medford's last one was 1/6/2017 as well. I thought they had one in Feb 2019 but 34 was their coldest.

I guess go east of the cascades for the cold.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

That is a long time.   Dallas Texas had 8 sub-freezing highs last winter.   If it can happen there then it can happen in Oregon.  

Dallas all time coldest temp is -8 in 1899.....it might be easier to get colder weather on the gulf of Mexico then it is on the 49th parallel. 

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Wow!  That is a shocking stat.  I had two last winter alone.

Indeed. This is a godawful location for cold and snow, you would be incredibly depressed here. And it’s getting to the point where it feels like we won’t ever have another Arctic airmass impact us.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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22 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Dallas all time coldest temp is -8 in 1899.....it might be easier to get colder weather on the gulf of Mexico then it is on the 49th parallel. 

That’s what unabated land access to the arctic circle will do! Some wild anomalies from February 1899 down there since the avg is actually quite mild. Of course “averages” in that corner of the world, at that time of year, are merely a rough composite of highly variable weather; the median of the fuzziest trendline in the world.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Indeed. This is a godawful location for cold and snow, you would be incredibly depressed here. And it’s getting to the point where it feels like we won’t ever have another Arctic airmass impact us.

Went from January 2012 to February 2019 without seeing a single subfreezing high in this part of the city.

February 2014 the airport was shrouded with thick midlevel cloudcover for two days while we weren’t. Hence the pair of 31F and 29F while all the frost here melted under the increasingly powerful sun and 35F temps. When it finally did snow by surprise on the 8th, it was gone by noon and 40F by 1pm.

December 2016 was close, but no cigar. Dry and 34F. Airport a few hundred feet higher. Follow the dry adiabatic line and do the math, they notched one by a hair.

Then February 2019 came along with two in one week (in addition to like 8 sub-35F’s), then one in January 2020, and another two in a row in February 2021. Three years in a row. I know it seems bleak but you’ll see another in due time. Your area in particular is good at trapping cold air near the surface (especially being in Springfield vs DT Eugene) should you get an airmass down there. Our region’s dull weather is often streaky and there will always be some event to snap it.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Are you freeking kidding me!  We have cold air in place with northerly surface gradient and the GFS run stops?

  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z GFS (Pivotal) stuck on Day 8

500h_anom.na.png

Not a bad frame to be stuck on! lol

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z GFS (Pivotal) stuck on Day 8

500h_anom.na.png

This is killing me! 

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Not a bad frame to be stuck on! lol

Maybe a metaphor for the coming winter?

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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56 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Dallas all time coldest temp is -8 in 1899.....it might be easier to get colder weather on the gulf of Mexico then it is on the 49th parallel. 

We can do sustained cold much better though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Yeah it kind of sucks, doesn't it. lol

00z ECMWF in 28 minutes

I think this run is going to show freezing low temps for some places.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, GHweatherChris said:

Your boy plays football out there, thats awesome!!

LOL, I guess I should have specified, he is in the drumline.  He is about 6' to 6'1" or so and about 130# soaking wet, he would get crushed if he tried to play football.  That said, lugging tenor drums and cymbals around for 4 years will have covered $8,000 of his college expenses, so can't knock that. 

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1 hour ago, Kayla said:

Montana teams are kind of crushing it this year! We went to a couple of snow games our first couple of years here. It is always a fun atmosphere but the energy in a snow game brings it up to another level! 

Mid to late October is normally when we see our first significant snows so this year looks to be right on track. As long as we don't see below zero weather again this month then I'm okay with it!

Yeah they have been doing good.  Unfortunately, they very rarely get broadcast here so we don't get to watch them much.  I had hoped to make a couple of trips out this fall, but not a lot of vacation time with the new job, plus we lost our free "crashpad" east of Missoula.  The house we stayed at got sold to my wife's uncle and they are moving into it so that his son (the next generation to run the ranch) can move into the main homestead.  It really sucks because I actually enjoy that drive.

If it does snow/get cold, it will just be part of the experience, just like doing cattle drives in single digit temps with below zero wind chills.  I just hope my flights can get in/out without issue.

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The GFS is stuck on the NCEP site also.  Shittt!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Maybe Day 12 has -6c 850s, thickness down to 527... We'll never know.

That's what I'm thinking.  Maybe even snow late in the run.

  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

That is a long time.   Dallas Texas had 8 sub-freezing highs last winter.   If it can happen there then it can happen in Oregon.  

TWL has some special kind of bad luck it seems.

Hell, even here in this subtropical swamp box I can’t remember a single winter without at least a couple subfreezing highs. Even super warm winters like 2016/17 had several.

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1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Maybe Jesse did it 🤣

I wish it could have gotten to the low temps the next day at least.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The GFS ensemble looks remarkably similar to the operational at day 8.  It shows the trough hanging in well beyond that.  Also hints at the onshore flow being cut off with very low 850s.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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GFS is blue-balling us on WeatherBell.

  • Snow 1

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Pretty insane stuff shown on the 0z ECMWF.  One day has some locations in the low 40s at 0z.  I can never recall that happening this early.

  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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7 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Wake up, bu'holes! EURO is a jaw dropper!

floop-ecmwf-2021100400.500h_anom_na.gif

Yup!

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z GFS Ensembles - 850mb Temps/Precip

Portland

ens_image.php?geoid=135728&var=201&run=0

Seattle

ens_image.php?geoid=136221&var=201&run=0

That is just flat out tanked.  Let's hope the atmosphere remembers how to repeat this come winter.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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