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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


The Blob

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6 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Having early season snowfall 3 years in a row would be really impressive there.

K-Falls has not had accumulating snow in September since the 80's I'm assuming. One time I had wet flakes falling 9/28/2019. Somehow nothing fell until November that year.

We had flakes trying to mix in on 9/28/2019 out here in the Valley. KGEG had accumulating snow. They have more elevation though. I'm surprised you missed out on the October snow. I would rather wait until December. It means more then. I looked at Ashland, Kentucky. It has a humid subtropical climate with over 4.5 inches of rain in July. Regardless, it does seem to get reasonably cold in the winter. The record low is -25F in 1994. You should see some interesting things happen there. 

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8 minutes ago, snow drift said:

We had flakes trying to mix in on 9/28/2019 out here in the Valley. KGEG had accumulating snow. They have more elevation though. I'm surprised you missed out on the October snow. I would rather wait until December. It means more then. I looked at Ashland, Kentucky. It has a humid subtropical climate with over 4.5 inches of rain in July. Regardless, it does seem to get reasonably cold in the winter. The record low is -25F in 1994. You should see some interesting things happen there. 

October was too dry here. One semi decent frontal event around the 3rd week. The rest of October was fake cold and warm afternoons. Oct 2019 is one of the reasons I don't usually support cold Octobers. If it rains this year, bring on the cold!

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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1 minute ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

October was too dry here. One semi decent frontal event around the 3rd week. The rest of October was fake cold and warm afternoons. Oct 2019 is one of the reasons I don't usually support cold Octobers. If it rains this year, bring on the cold!

 

2021-10-05 12_46_04-GHCND_USW00094236_2019-10-1.pdf.png

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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2 minutes ago, snow drift said:

Bone dry

2020 was drier with 0.07" in October. November sort of had quota but barely.

There was a 60-day precip of 0.08" counting Sep/Oct. 

Oct 2016 had 2.48". A completely average Mean (except the high was -5).

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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28 minutes ago, snow drift said:

We had flakes trying to mix in on 9/28/2019 out here in the Valley. KGEG had accumulating snow. They have more elevation though. I'm surprised you missed out on the October snow. I would rather wait until December. It means more then. I looked at Ashland, Kentucky. It has a humid subtropical climate with over 4.5 inches of rain in July. Regardless, it does seem to get reasonably cold in the winter. The record low is -25F in 1994. You should see some interesting things happen there. 

Winters are also a little different in that it's not for 2-3 months straight. They get snow, back to rain/thunder and snow again kind of thing. I remember tornado watches in KY in January 2020. So I am guessing snow does not last a very long time on the ground even if they do get blizzards on occasion.

  • Storm 1

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Monsoon's last breath?

KFSX_loop.gif

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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1 hour ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Winters are also a little different in that it's not for 2-3 months straight. They get snow, back to rain/thunder and snow again kind of thing. I remember tornado watches in KY in January 2020. So I am guessing snow does not last a very long time on the ground even if they do get blizzards on occasion.

It seems pretty variable. Average highs are in the 30s during December and January, but both months have strong variability. I bet it's more changeable than the NW.

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🙀

243466276_10159229221059818_4532210273386825156_n.jpg

KFSX_loop (1).gif

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  • scream 1

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Looks like the usual cold October here and then we will be back to our normal, boring weather until next summer when we start racking up 90F+ readings. Hopefully we can get below 23F which is the coldest we’ve been in a while.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

i lived in Tempe from 2007-2011 and heard all about monsoon season etc and i think those years turned out to be like the biggest lull in storms/precip for that area in a long time. Super bummer. 

There was that $4.5 billion hailstorm 10/5/2010, and I thought Phoenix (or Tucson?) flooded in 2008. It's spotty though. One location will get 2", and 30 miles away would have 10" in a season. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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5 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

There was that $4.5 billion hailstorm 10/5/2010, and I thought Phoenix (or Tucson?) flooded in 2008. It's spotty though. One location will get 2", and 30 miles away would have 10" in a season. 

Here is the hail map from that day. I was trying to figure out why I couldnt recall it or didnt have vids/photos of it if it was so epic...now i know why.

image.thumb.png.8f07fccdca91be5b405690d1ec0dde67.png

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2 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

Maybe Tempe was just in a donut hole. The Bellemont tornado outbreak on 10/6/10 right up I-17 near Flagstaff was one of the most extraordinary weather events ever to occur in that area.

https://www.weather.gov/fgz/TornadoesOct2010

 

yep, i think i was right in the middle of a bit fat hole

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Maybe this event in Arizona is telling us what's to follow next 2 Winters in the northwest! 

'10-'11 + '11-'12!

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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🙀🙀

KFSX_loop (2).gif

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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6 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

All dark cloud no bite!  Just some moderate rain, no wind or boomers here. 

I was totally unprepared for this line i thought we were all done after noon today. I think I just caught the north edge of this...i give it a 6/10. Good wind, decent rain, short lived. 

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New euro seasonal has a more zonal solution, somewhat similar to 2007/08 and 1974/75 @ 500mb.

Also a weaker SSW/blocking signal, obviously. More of the deepest arctic cold is bottled up north (vs the September run).

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Dr. Roundy’s low-pass tropical forcing analogs have also been drifting towards a more zonal looking NPAC.

Solution ends up with too much -WPO relative to -EPO which sends the mother load of Arctic air into Eurasia, while allowing heights to rise in the SW US.

Gets somewhat interesting in January, but verbatim that Beaufort/western-Arctic vortex is a problem.

120 day animation, out to January 31st:

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/analogs/analogslp.html

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Just now, Phil said:

Dr. Roundy’s low-pass tropical forcing analogs have also been drifting towards a more zonal looking NPAC.

Solution ends up with too much -WPO relative to -EPO which sends a most of the cold into Eurasia while allowing heights to rise in the SW US.

120 day animation, out to January 31st:

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/analogs/analogslp.html

So no changes for this location from the last couple years. More status-quo.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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34 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

I was totally unprepared for this line i thought we were all done after noon today. I think I just caught the north edge of this...i give it a 6/10. Good wind, decent rain, short lived. 

Looked really cool coming across the Sound.  Took its time as well. Des Moines got hit pretty good according to the radar.

Sunny now and 54*

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18 minutes ago, Phil said:

New euro seasonal has a more zonal solution, somewhat similar to 2007/08 and 1974/75 @ 500mb.

Also a weaker SSW/blocking signal, obviously. More of the deepest arctic cold is bottled up north (vs the September run).

Both of those winters were very snowy here.

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1 minute ago, snow drift said:

Both of those winters were very snowy here.

Same here. Well maybe not more snowy than a few on the signature but more than average!

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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