Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 5, 2021 Report Share Posted October 5, 2021 56 minutes ago, Bonovox said: This may have already been posted, but if not, here is the latest Euro seasonal. Third PNW winter in a row to blow its load in October. 1 1 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted October 5, 2021 Report Share Posted October 5, 2021 6 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said: Having early season snowfall 3 years in a row would be really impressive there. K-Falls has not had accumulating snow in September since the 80's I'm assuming. One time I had wet flakes falling 9/28/2019. Somehow nothing fell until November that year. We had flakes trying to mix in on 9/28/2019 out here in the Valley. KGEG had accumulating snow. They have more elevation though. I'm surprised you missed out on the October snow. I would rather wait until December. It means more then. I looked at Ashland, Kentucky. It has a humid subtropical climate with over 4.5 inches of rain in July. Regardless, it does seem to get reasonably cold in the winter. The record low is -25F in 1994. You should see some interesting things happen there. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 5, 2021 Report Share Posted October 5, 2021 8 minutes ago, snow drift said: We had flakes trying to mix in on 9/28/2019 out here in the Valley. KGEG had accumulating snow. They have more elevation though. I'm surprised you missed out on the October snow. I would rather wait until December. It means more then. I looked at Ashland, Kentucky. It has a humid subtropical climate with over 4.5 inches of rain in July. Regardless, it does seem to get reasonably cold in the winter. The record low is -25F in 1994. You should see some interesting things happen there. October was too dry here. One semi decent frontal event around the 3rd week. The rest of October was fake cold and warm afternoons. Oct 2019 is one of the reasons I don't usually support cold Octobers. If it rains this year, bring on the cold! 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted October 5, 2021 Report Share Posted October 5, 2021 Today will likely be our last 70+ degree high of the year. We probably won't see a 70+ degree high again until April next year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 5, 2021 Report Share Posted October 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Timmy_Supercell said: October was too dry here. One semi decent frontal event around the 3rd week. The rest of October was fake cold and warm afternoons. Oct 2019 is one of the reasons I don't usually support cold Octobers. If it rains this year, bring on the cold! 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted October 5, 2021 Report Share Posted October 5, 2021 19 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: Third PNW winter in a row to blow its load in October. I hope not. I'm so tired of mild Decembers and Januaries. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted October 5, 2021 Report Share Posted October 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said: Bone dry 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 5, 2021 Report Share Posted October 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, snow drift said: Bone dry 2020 was drier with 0.07" in October. November sort of had quota but barely. There was a 60-day precip of 0.08" counting Sep/Oct. Oct 2016 had 2.48". A completely average Mean (except the high was -5). 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted October 5, 2021 Report Share Posted October 5, 2021 Just now, Timmy_Supercell said: 2020 was drier with 0.07" in October. November sort of had quota but barely. There was a 60-day precip of 0.08" counting Sep/Oct. Oct 2016 had 2.48". A completely average Mean (except the high was -5). That's like summer level dryness. Sheesh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 5, 2021 Report Share Posted October 5, 2021 28 minutes ago, snow drift said: We had flakes trying to mix in on 9/28/2019 out here in the Valley. KGEG had accumulating snow. They have more elevation though. I'm surprised you missed out on the October snow. I would rather wait until December. It means more then. I looked at Ashland, Kentucky. It has a humid subtropical climate with over 4.5 inches of rain in July. Regardless, it does seem to get reasonably cold in the winter. The record low is -25F in 1994. You should see some interesting things happen there. Winters are also a little different in that it's not for 2-3 months straight. They get snow, back to rain/thunder and snow again kind of thing. I remember tornado watches in KY in January 2020. So I am guessing snow does not last a very long time on the ground even if they do get blizzards on occasion. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 5, 2021 Report Share Posted October 5, 2021 Monsoon's last breath? 1 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 5, 2021 Report Share Posted October 5, 2021 9 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said: Monsoon's last breath? Smells like onions. Onions and ketchup. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted October 5, 2021 Report Share Posted October 5, 2021 1 hour ago, Timmy_Supercell said: Winters are also a little different in that it's not for 2-3 months straight. They get snow, back to rain/thunder and snow again kind of thing. I remember tornado watches in KY in January 2020. So I am guessing snow does not last a very long time on the ground even if they do get blizzards on occasion. It seems pretty variable. Average highs are in the 30s during December and January, but both months have strong variability. I bet it's more changeable than the NW. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted October 5, 2021 Report Share Posted October 5, 2021 Sexy analogs alert 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted October 5, 2021 Report Share Posted October 5, 2021 https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?zoneid=ORZ011 Plenty of snow level drops to 4500' in the Northern Oregon Cascades forecast. Very good for early October. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 5, 2021 Report Share Posted October 5, 2021 15 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?zoneid=ORZ011 Plenty of snow level drops to 4500' in the Northern Oregon Cascades forecast. Very good for early October. here is Euro ensemble snowfall maps 12z vs 00z thru day 10. Snow is actively accumulating at this time though... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 5, 2021 Report Share Posted October 5, 2021 1 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 5, 2021 Report Share Posted October 5, 2021 1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said: here is Euro ensemble snowfall maps 12z vs 00z thru day 10. Snow is actively accumulating at this time though... here is EPS vs GEFS...pretty similar through day 10. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 5, 2021 Report Share Posted October 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Timmy_Supercell said: i lived in Tempe from 2007-2011 and heard all about monsoon season etc and i think those years turned out to be like the biggest lull in storms/precip for that area in a long time. Super bummer. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 5, 2021 Report Share Posted October 5, 2021 Looks like the usual cold October here and then we will be back to our normal, boring weather until next summer when we start racking up 90F+ readings. Hopefully we can get below 23F which is the coldest we’ve been in a while. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 5, 2021 Report Share Posted October 5, 2021 1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said: i lived in Tempe from 2007-2011 and heard all about monsoon season etc and i think those years turned out to be like the biggest lull in storms/precip for that area in a long time. Super bummer. There was that $4.5 billion hailstorm 10/5/2010, and I thought Phoenix (or Tucson?) flooded in 2008. It's spotty though. One location will get 2", and 30 miles away would have 10" in a season. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 5, 2021 Report Share Posted October 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said: There was that $4.5 billion hailstorm 10/5/2010, and I thought Phoenix (or Tucson?) flooded in 2008. It's spotty though. One location will get 2", and 30 miles away would have 10" in a season. Here is the hail map from that day. I was trying to figure out why I couldnt recall it or didnt have vids/photos of it if it was so epic...now i know why. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 5, 2021 Report Share Posted October 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, Eujunga said: Maybe Tempe was just in a donut hole. The Bellemont tornado outbreak on 10/6/10 right up I-17 near Flagstaff was one of the most extraordinary weather events ever to occur in that area. https://www.weather.gov/fgz/TornadoesOct2010 yep, i think i was right in the middle of a bit fat hole 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 5, 2021 Report Share Posted October 5, 2021 Maybe this event in Arizona is telling us what's to follow next 2 Winters in the northwest! '10-'11 + '11-'12! Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted October 5, 2021 Report Share Posted October 5, 2021 Nice line of showers about to get me wet! Blue sky on the other side 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 5, 2021 Report Share Posted October 5, 2021 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 5, 2021 Report Share Posted October 5, 2021 .11” so far on the day, .20” for the month, 35.28” for the year. 55/50 on the day. Currently 54. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 5, 2021 Report Share Posted October 5, 2021 0.24” so far today. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted October 5, 2021 Report Share Posted October 5, 2021 All dark cloud no bite! Just some moderate rain, no wind or boomers here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 5, 2021 Report Share Posted October 5, 2021 Hopefully we aren’t burning all our load this October. Seems like we’ll perhaps set ourselves up for a warmer/wetter Nov. hopefully then this comes back Dec./Jan. Fun times!! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 5, 2021 Report Share Posted October 5, 2021 6 minutes ago, Jginmartini said: All dark cloud no bite! Just some moderate rain, no wind or boomers here. I was totally unprepared for this line i thought we were all done after noon today. I think I just caught the north edge of this...i give it a 6/10. Good wind, decent rain, short lived. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 5, 2021 Report Share Posted October 5, 2021 winters over 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 5, 2021 Report Share Posted October 5, 2021 but for real. 18z giving us some goods - in the realistic timeframe! Maybe some frost!! @snow_wizard Winter storm warning for OR folks in 10...9...8... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 5, 2021 Report Share Posted October 5, 2021 New euro seasonal has a more zonal solution, somewhat similar to 2007/08 and 1974/75 @ 500mb. Also a weaker SSW/blocking signal, obviously. More of the deepest arctic cold is bottled up north (vs the September run). Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 5, 2021 Report Share Posted October 5, 2021 Dr. Roundy’s low-pass tropical forcing analogs have also been drifting towards a more zonal looking NPAC. Solution ends up with too much -WPO relative to -EPO which sends the mother load of Arctic air into Eurasia, while allowing heights to rise in the SW US. Gets somewhat interesting in January, but verbatim that Beaufort/western-Arctic vortex is a problem. 120 day animation, out to January 31st: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/analogs/analogslp.html Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 5, 2021 Report Share Posted October 5, 2021 Just now, Phil said: Dr. Roundy’s low-pass tropical forcing analogs have also been drifting towards a more zonal looking NPAC. Solution ends up with too much -WPO relative to -EPO which sends a most of the cold into Eurasia while allowing heights to rise in the SW US. 120 day animation, out to January 31st: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/analogs/analogslp.html So no changes for this location from the last couple years. More status-quo. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted October 5, 2021 Report Share Posted October 5, 2021 34 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: I was totally unprepared for this line i thought we were all done after noon today. I think I just caught the north edge of this...i give it a 6/10. Good wind, decent rain, short lived. Looked really cool coming across the Sound. Took its time as well. Des Moines got hit pretty good according to the radar. Sunny now and 54* Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted October 5, 2021 Report Share Posted October 5, 2021 18 minutes ago, Phil said: New euro seasonal has a more zonal solution, somewhat similar to 2007/08 and 1974/75 @ 500mb. Also a weaker SSW/blocking signal, obviously. More of the deepest arctic cold is bottled up north (vs the September run). Both of those winters were very snowy here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 5, 2021 Report Share Posted October 5, 2021 1 minute ago, snow drift said: Both of those winters were very snowy here. Same here. Well maybe not more snowy than a few on the signature but more than average! 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 6, 2021 Report Share Posted October 6, 2021 We’re up to 27.39” for the year currently…think we will go over 40” for 2021. Had 44.24” last year. 54/49 0.25” today. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.