PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition

[GHweatherChris]

13 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

How do we get the two orange things to merge and make one big blue thing over us? Isnt that how last february got started? Who do i talk to about this? I need a met on demand to answer my stupid questions. 

Lets wait another 6 to 8 weeks for that to happen.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, AlTahoe said:

I know Phil was calling for an expanded 4 corners high this summer but I don't think any of us thought that it would envelop half of North America. Sheesh 

 

Yeah it was even worse than I thought. Figured it would cease to be a significant factor in the westside PNW. Whoops.  

[Jbolin]

17 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

How do we get the two orange things to merge and make one big blue thing over us? Isnt that how last february got started? Who do i talk to about this? I need a met on demand to answer my stupid questions. 

When a mommy and daddy positive height anomaly get together and decide to  "mix it up" around 500mb then magic happens. 

NVM, I took some really good distillate this morning. Wheeeeee

[LowerGarfield]

Ice scraper season. We had our first frost a week earlier than expected. Son usually goes early for breakfast, but we had breakfast at home since I was caught by surprise.

[Timmy Supercell]

7 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Ice scraper season. We had our first frost a week earlier than expected. Son usually goes early for breakfast, but we had breakfast at home since I was caught by surprise.

Looks like a hard freeze to me.

Haven't had one of those yet here.

[Timmy Supercell]

12 minutes ago, iFred said:

I was hoping for a couple weeks of sun and warmth to finish some yard work but it looks like I’ll have to wait for December.

I think we're due for a good week or so of bone chilling east wind right after New Years like in 2016.

D**n it was cold but there's your wall to wall sun.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Got down to 42F. Cloudy skies and a very pleasant 51F out there right now.

[MossMan]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Sunny start to the day here... after being pounded with rain the last 2 days.

Looks sunny up in Bellingham too... so you should see some sun today.

Sun is trying to pop out now! Up to 48 degrees. 

[MossMan]

28 minutes ago, iFred said:

I was hoping for a couple weeks of sun and warmth to finish some yard work but it looks like I’ll have to wait for December.

Not if Matt has something to say about it! 

[FroYoBro]

Just now hit 50 here. Feels cold! 

[Chewbacca Defense]

Looks like someone dropped a nuke on the Acme/Wickersham area....

[Deweydog]

46 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Not if Matt has something to say about it! 

Well, he’s partially right.  As Tim has pointed out many times, if the wind is calm and you’re standing in direct sunlight on the deck, temperatures in the mid teens can feel quite toasty.

[Timmy Supercell]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Well, he’s partially right.  As Tim has pointed out many times, if the wind is calm and you’re standing in direct sunlight on the deck, temperatures in the mid teens can feel quite toasty.

Especially after a few peppermint smirnoffs! 

[Blizzard777]

1 hour ago, LowerGarfield said:

Ice scraper season. We had our first frost a week earlier than expected. Son usually goes early for breakfast, but we had breakfast at home since I was caught by surprise.

My tomatoes wouldn’t like that very much! 

[RentonHill]

Last few days of the 12z Euro, and comparison of Day 9.5 for 12z vs 00z

 

 

[RentonHill]

12z ECMWF vs 12z GFS - Total Precip - 240hr

[RentonHill]

EPS and GEFS are both pretty confident about this 300 hours out.

[Jbolin]

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

EPS and GEFS are both pretty confident about this 300 hours out.

We surveyed 100 diehard PNW wx fans, are these maps in any way believable?

Survey says............ XXX

[The Blob]

Up to 56 now, sure is a heat wave

[RentonHill]

8 minutes ago, JBolin said:

We surveyed 100 diehard PNW wx fans, are these maps in any way believable?

Survey says............ XXX

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, JBolin said:

We surveyed 100 diehard PNW wx fans, are these maps in any way believable?

Survey says............ XXX

Rest In Peace Ray Combs. Is Louie Anderson still alive? 

[snow drift]

Some nice analogs are showing up. Digging the trough off the coast is trouble though.

[Jbolin]

11 minutes ago, snow drift said:

Some nice analogs are showing up. Digging the trough off the coast is trouble though.

Isn't it always?

[T-Town]

Sunny and 55 here. Nice day. 

[Gradient Keeper]

4 hours ago, RentonHillTC said:

When youve been riding in the saddle for as long as Rob has, you just know when something aint right with a model run. Todays 12z is a bit different for us. Also it helps that goofus is basically monkey/dartboard after day 7

12z GFS today (left) vs 12z GFS yesterday (right) - thru day 7

Indeed I have. That Rob guy though, Bob Grimes, what a character. What a crazy bastard really.

 

Oh wait. Plot twist. I AM Rob. I really hope the models don't revert to digging that trough too far offshore.

00z GFS in 6 hours 22 minutes(8:35 PM?)

[RentonHill]

7 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Indeed I have. That Rob guy though, Bob Grimes, what a character. What a crazy bastard really.

 

Oh wait. Plot twist. I AM Rob. I really hope the models don't revert to digging that trough too far offshore.

00z GFS in 6 hours 22 minutes(8:35 PM?)

06/18z is where its at, not sure if you noticed. 00/12z can suck it. 

[Gradient Keeper]

14 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

06/18z is where its at, not sure if you noticed. 00/12z can suck it. 

Life would seem so strange if the 12z, and especially 00z models were no longer valuable or credible. No need for the [Model Countdown], nor the nightly EURO run? Weather geeks would jump off bridges everywhere.

[Meatyorologist]

Everyone's favorite run is going live now... 18z GFS!

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

Everyone's favorite run is going live now... 18z GFS!

[Deweydog]

13 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Life would seem so strange if the 12z, and especially 00z models were no longer valuable or credible. No need for the [Model Countdown], nor the nightly EURO run? Weather geeks would jump off bridges everywhere.

That’s gonna hurt like a mofo when rivers ‘round these parts are frozen solid by Boxing Day.

[Gradient Keeper]

6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

That’s gonna hurt like a mofo when rivers ‘round these parts are frozen solid by Boxing Day.

That's a very valid point. Hopefully they got a padded suit for Christmas.

00z ECMWF in 7 hours 48 minutes

[Thunder98]

North Dakota, South Dakota and Wyoming are looking wetter than Oregon and Washington.

 

[TacomaWaWx]

57/41 today. 

[RentonHill]

garbage throw it out

[snow drift]

1 hour ago, DJ Droppin said:

Indeed I have. That Rob guy though, Bob Grimes, what a character. What a crazy bastard really.

 

Oh wait. Plot twist. I AM Rob. I really hope the models don't revert to digging that trough too far offshore.

00z GFS in 6 hours 22 minutes(8:35 PM?)

Digging like a gopher with a backhoe

[TacomaWaWx]

Not terrible…these totals aren’t far off of what you’d expect in the first half of October in terms of climo. Looks cool and there’s some rain…coming off some pretty wet weather in September I’d say we’re doing pretty good feels like we’re actually in a nina. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Totals through the believable range.

[snow drift]

10 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

garbage throw it out

I like to say the same thing.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 hour ago, Thunder98 said:

North Dakota, South Dakota and Wyoming are looking wetter than Oregon and Washington.

 

They badly need the moisture, so that's great news.

00z GFS in 3 hours 39 minutes

[snow_wizard]

57 / 39 IMBY today and even cooler weather coming.  Tonight has certainly trended colder with the models showing lots of 30s.  Monday night continues to look like the big winner for this cold snap with widespread frost.