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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


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1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

57/41 today. 

Your lows have bene doing pretty well this so far this season.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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51.7 average for the first week of October is pretty darn nippy!  The second week is easily going to come in below 50 for many.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 hours ago, snow drift said:

Some nice analogs are showing up. Digging the trough off the coast is trouble though.

610analog.off (1).gif

814analog.off (2).gif

Those are some downright good ones alright.  A lot of those winters had major cold.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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7 hours ago, Deweydog said:

Well, he’s partially right.  As Tim has pointed out many times, if the wind is calm and you’re standing in direct sunlight on the deck, temperatures in the mid teens can feel quite toasty.

Yes, the first weekend in March it was cool and sunny. We even had a picnic outside. I was shocked to see that the temperature was about 45F after a week or two of 20's and snow. It felt like 65 or 70 (which feels also feels cold in fall since we did have a 110F day in June.

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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Impressively cold night.  Already down to 43 here and 47 at SEA.

On a side note I can't believe how slow this forum is right now.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Huge change on the GFS for the trough around day 9.  It digs much further east and is much cooler for us.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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19 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Impressively cold night.  Already down to 43 here and 47 at SEA.

On a side note I can't believe how slow this forum is right now.

Hawks game hangover.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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21 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Impressively cold night.  Already down to 43 here and 47 at SEA.

On a side note I can't believe how slow this forum is right now.

Chilly rain showers just aren’t that exciting to most people.  Maybe we will luck out and get a light freeze in the next week

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41 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Impressively cold night.  Already down to 43 here and 47 at SEA.

On a side note I can't believe how slow this forum is right now.

Statistically speaking it’ll be pretty chilly but in terms of tangible weather it’s not out of the norm to have low 50s and rain on and off in Seattle. It is pretty chilly and could get some decently cold lows for early/mid October.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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5 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Your lows have bene doing pretty well this so far this season.

Well hopefully they’re decent still  when it counts later this winter. Pretty much always 3-5 degrees warmer than everyone’s morning lows here especially in the winter time. 46 here currently we should definitely get some lows in the 30s soon atleast.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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24 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Chilly rain showers just aren’t that exciting to most people.  Maybe we will luck out and get a light freeze in the next week

We are talking about the possibility of a top 10% cold October.  Pretty exciting.  People complain about endless warmth and then cold comes and silence.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Already down to 42 here.  30s by midnight is pretty doable.  Solid cold for this time of year.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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9 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Statistically speaking it’ll be pretty chilly but in terms of tangible weather it’s not out of the norm to have low 50s and rain on and off in Seattle. It is pretty chilly and could get some decently cold lows for early/mid October.

For persistence of cold this is going to be pretty top tier for this early.  The month to date averages are already solidly below normal.  I guess a lot of people don't like cold in October, because of the perception it's a bad sign.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The day 10 ECMWF shows us still in a cold pattern at day 10.  The warmup keeps getting pushed out.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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25 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

37 in Corvallis!

Just dropped below 40 here as well.  By far the coldest night so far.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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It appears the peak of this cold snap will be in the Sunday through Tuesday time frame.  A high in the low 50s on Monday with sunshine, and then widespread frost with some areas 32 or lower Tuesday morning.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The surface obs being spit out by the ECMWF are colder than previous runs with many lows below 40 being for shown for many places over the next 10 days.  A tad on the dry side though as the troughs don't dig off the coast very much.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Down to 40F in downtown Springfield. Coldest night of the regular season for this location to this point.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Analogs derived from ENSO/low pass, MJO, and equatorial rossby wave activity suggest the ongoing -PNA/+NPO pattern (Aleutian High, Alaska low, E-Canada ridge) will continue until early November. Could have a long way to run still.

Courtesy of Dr. Paul Roundy.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/analogs/analogs.html

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In fact it shows the Aleutian Ridge amplifying further between 10/20-10/27. As does the low pass filter by itself. 

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Top-5 analog dates are all neutral/negative ENSO and -QBO (and/or -QBO in descending E-shear phase), as is 2021. We’re running a bit ahead of 1964, and a bit behind 2007, in regards to the latter).

Anyway interesting to see these climatological tendencies already manifesting in the seasonal pattern. Aleutian High trends flatter with more AK low/Pacific influence, compared to Niña/+QBO climo.

FE2EE07C-4591-47F9-80F1-EA8079AF691C.gif

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7 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

For persistence of cold this is going to be pretty top tier for this early.  The month to date averages are already solidly below normal.  I guess a lot of people don't like cold in October, because of the perception it's a bad sign.

Like I said though in terms of tangible weather it’s not really that exciting. It’s early yes but unless you’re like a weather stat geek like many of us on here you wouldn’t really notice this weather. it’s not unusual to have highs in the low 50s and and overnight lows in the low to mid 30s a lot of the year in western WA. That’s why many don’t find it too interesting. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Looks like our low will be 40 just couldn’t dip into the 30s here this morning. By this point in 2019 we had already had a low of 36 and 39 in the first week of October…and a freezing low on the 10th so here at this location it’ll take some decent cold anomalies to catch up with that year. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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6 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

It appears the peak of this cold snap will be in the Sunday through Tuesday time frame.  A high in the low 50s on Monday with sunshine, and then widespread frost with some areas 32 or lower Tuesday morning.

Monday forecast high is 39F here with a low of 17F. That is late Nov cold for us! 

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