snow_wizard Posted October 8, 2021 Report Share Posted October 8, 2021 The 12z models have pretty much nixed the idea of getting warmer anytime soon. Pretty intense trough in the 9 / 10 day time frame. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 8, 2021 Report Share Posted October 8, 2021 A lot of old time analogs today. Most are pre 1980. Pretty impressive to see both 1955 and 1985 up there. They ended up the two coldest Novembers of the 20th century. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted October 8, 2021 Report Share Posted October 8, 2021 My phone app shows nearly all of the rain advertised next week as having dried up. Looks cool and gray. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted October 8, 2021 Report Share Posted October 8, 2021 8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: A lot of old time analogs today. Most are pre 1980. Pretty impressive to see both 1955 and 1985 up there. They ended up the two coldest Novembers of the 20th century. Phils weird MJO future predicter thingy showed a very warm Nov. Judah Cohen has been talking about a super early SSW event as well by late Oct. So maybe the fun starts late Nov early Dec? I am expecting a big Dec so I will pick Dec 1970 as my Analog. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 8, 2021 Report Share Posted October 8, 2021 12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: A lot of old time analogs today. Most are pre 1980. Pretty impressive to see both 1955 and 1985 up there. They ended up the two coldest Novembers of the 20th century. Just like this past summer... its very likely that nothing goes according to any plan this winter. These analog lists never seem to mean anything for the future, 2 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Lake Oswego Posted October 8, 2021 Report Share Posted October 8, 2021 10 minutes ago, ..... said: My phone app shows nearly all of the rain advertised next week as having dried up. Looks cool and gray. Who could have seen that coming??? 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Lake Oswego Posted October 8, 2021 Report Share Posted October 8, 2021 1 hour ago, MossMan said: I’m ready for some big fall storms! You masochist, you. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted October 8, 2021 Report Share Posted October 8, 2021 42 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said: Crazily overdue for a 65+ mph widespread event not from a t'storm or dry east wind. Cinnamon Roll Storms! Well according to the AGW crowd. Not only are these storms still possible but they should be more frequent! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 8, 2021 Report Share Posted October 8, 2021 1 hour ago, AlTahoe said: Phils weird MJO future predicter thingy showed a very warm Nov. Judah Cohen has been talking about a super early SSW event as well by late Oct. So maybe the fun starts late Nov early Dec? I am expecting a big Dec so I will pick Dec 1970 as my Analog. We have had some very warm Novembers after cold Octobers like this. Wouldn't shock me, but a real cold one wouldn't either. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 8, 2021 Report Share Posted October 8, 2021 1 hour ago, ..... said: My phone app shows nearly all of the rain advertised next week as having dried up. Looks cool and gray. The big change has been for the troughs to come right down on us instead of digging a bit offshore. Better for cold nights, but worse for rain. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted October 8, 2021 Report Share Posted October 8, 2021 3 hours ago, T-Town said: Tacoma coyotes are urban coyotes. Gotta maintain a rough exterior to maintain their street cred. Over here our coyotes are a little bit smarter. A few of them are MENSA members. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted October 8, 2021 Report Share Posted October 8, 2021 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 8, 2021 Report Share Posted October 8, 2021 Birches are just starting to turn on Sumas Mountain. 3 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 8, 2021 Report Share Posted October 8, 2021 1 hour ago, snow_wizard said: The big change has been for the troughs to come right down on us instead of digging a bit offshore. Better for cold nights, but worse for rain. We’ve had sufficient rain recently. Bring on the frost! Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 8, 2021 Report Share Posted October 8, 2021 8 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: We’ve had sufficient rain recently. Bring on the frost! I am sure we will still get plenty of rain... but we don't really need more rain now. At least up here. It will be raining for months. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 8, 2021 Report Share Posted October 8, 2021 18 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said: Low of 37, beautiful October day. Thinking of going to find some temps in the 20s tomorrow AM. Can’t wait til all I have to do is step outside to feel 20s. Maybe Tuesday, but we will more likely see 30 to 32 on that day. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 8, 2021 Report Share Posted October 8, 2021 13 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: We’ve had sufficient rain recently. Bring on the frost! I love it when it clears out with these cold troughs over us. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 8, 2021 Report Share Posted October 8, 2021 My month to date average is now 50.9 and my normal for the entire month is 51.1. That's a big deal in October when the normal drops a degree every 4.5 days. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 8, 2021 Report Share Posted October 8, 2021 The trough late next week has gone even colder on the 18z GFS. What began appearing on the models as a trough that would dig well offshore is now shown to come right down on us. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 8, 2021 Report Share Posted October 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The trough late next week has gone even colder on the 18z GFS. What began appearing on the models as a trough that would dig well offshore is now shown to come right down on us. Post some maps Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 8, 2021 Report Share Posted October 8, 2021 57/40 today. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 8, 2021 Report Share Posted October 8, 2021 3 hours ago, Timmy_Supercell said: Crazily overdue for a 65+ mph widespread event not from a t'storm or dry east wind. Cinnamon Roll Storms! I can only imagine the sound of that roar with the then much more densely wooded Puget Sound area sounded like. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted October 8, 2021 Report Share Posted October 8, 2021 Colors coming in nicely now. 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted October 8, 2021 Report Share Posted October 8, 2021 57 and sunny here. The last two days have been spectacular. The endless gray is coming, so I’m enjoying the sun while it lasts. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 9, 2021 Report Share Posted October 9, 2021 1 hour ago, RentonHillTC said: Post some maps 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 9, 2021 Report Share Posted October 9, 2021 18z GFS takes 850s down to -3.5 on Sunday. Very respectable for this early. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 9, 2021 Report Share Posted October 9, 2021 1 hour ago, T-Town said: 57 and sunny here. The last two days have been spectacular. The endless gray is coming, so I’m enjoying the sun while it lasts. If things stay troughy like this there will plenty of sunshine going forward. We are in a trough right now in fact. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted October 9, 2021 Report Share Posted October 9, 2021 55/34 today. I expect a freeze here tonight. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 9, 2021 Report Share Posted October 9, 2021 1 hour ago, MossMan said: I can only imagine the sound of that roar with the then much more densely wooded Puget Sound area sounded like. I'll never forget the roar in December 2006. That was just a notch below the Columbus Day Storm. The name of that storm poses some problems with the liberals BTW. We might have to rename it. 1 1 1 1 2 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 9, 2021 Report Share Posted October 9, 2021 Just now, Acer said: 55/34 today. I expect a freeze here tonight. No reason to think tonight won't be as cold as last night even though the models aren't bullish about that. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 9, 2021 Report Share Posted October 9, 2021 1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said: 57/40 today. 58/35 here. There was light frost here this morning. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted October 9, 2021 Report Share Posted October 9, 2021 1 hour ago, MossMan said: I can only imagine the sound of that roar with the then much more densely wooded Puget Sound area sounded like. I can only imagine the sound of large branches breaking and trees crashing to the ground or on the top of the house, car or an outbuilding. All of this without electricity or phones. Wind sucks. 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 9, 2021 Report Share Posted October 9, 2021 1 hour ago, Acer said: Colors coming in nicely now. Looks like you got a mow in! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted October 9, 2021 Report Share Posted October 9, 2021 1 minute ago, MossMan said: Looks like you got a mow in! Yes I did today! Ran out of gas though so will finish tomorrow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 9, 2021 Report Share Posted October 9, 2021 21 minutes ago, Acer said: I can only imagine the sound of large branches breaking and trees crashing to the ground or on the top of the house, car or an outbuilding. All of this without electricity or phones. Wind sucks. Yeah...I'm kind of done with wind. Some of that has to do with the trees around my house, but it causes real problems with the type of trees we have here. I get plenty of east wind here to give me my annual fix. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 9, 2021 Report Share Posted October 9, 2021 24 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: 58/35 here. There was light frost here this morning. Interesting how sometimes my lows are only 2-3 degrees warmer than yours and other times it can be as much as 5-8 degrees warmer. Very rarely do I end up colder than you…only nights I can recall it happening was during cloud cover over the EPSL and clearing near the sound. Gotta love western WA microclimates. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 9, 2021 Report Share Posted October 9, 2021 We will see about getting into the 30s tonight…still haven’t gotten there yet this fall. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted October 9, 2021 Report Share Posted October 9, 2021 30 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: I'll never forget the roar in December 2006. That was just a notch below the Columbus Day Storm. The name of that storm poses some problems with the liberals BTW. We might have to rename it. Ok boomer 1 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 9, 2021 Report Share Posted October 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Interesting how sometimes my lows are only 2-3 degrees warmer than yours and other times it can be as much as 5-8 degrees warmer. Very rarely do I end up colder than you…only nights I can recall it happening was during cloud cover over the EPSL and clearing near the sound. Gotta love western WA microclimates. Indeed. There are some cold pockets around here that can be several degrees colder than here under certain conditions. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 9, 2021 Report Share Posted October 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Ok boomer Just on the cusp of Gen X actually. I actually identify much more with X than the Boomers. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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