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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


The Blob

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17 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Temp here was 38° at midnight, up to 42°, system incoming. 

It will stay clear almost the entire night here.  Currently 37 here.  It was 39 at this time last night.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The EPS shows and an absolute beast of a trough just off the coast during week two.  Looks like we could go from cold and relatively dry to cold and wet.

Current trends keep pushing everything eastward and more directly over us in the home stretch however.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The ECMWF shows a low of 36 for SEA on Tuesday which would be their coldest min in the first half of October since 1960.  Interestingly that model has been running a tad high on min temps for this cold snap so far.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF shows a low of 36 for SEA on Tuesday which would be their coldest min in the first half of October since 1960.  Interestingly that model has been running a tad high on min temps for this cold snap so far.

It got down to 34F on 10/10 2019.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Been lovely here in New England.

IMG_20211008_102918.thumb.jpg.63626bde1493a133ed641182e88c750c.jpgIMG_20211007_161514.thumb.jpg.de822dea980778d337be3a7819a9c1a5.jpg

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Ive always wanted to go leaf peeping in New England. Beautiful photos. 

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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5 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

It got down to 34F on 10/10 2019.

Yeah October 2019 was much more impressive got down to 32 on 10/10 here and had 4 lows in the 30s by this point. I know my location doesn’t represent the whole region…but we still haven’t even dipped into the 30s yet low of 41 this morning. We even had a low of 36 on 10/1/19. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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6 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Might be the first cooler and wetter than normal month here in quite some time. Breath of fresh air.

Our coldest temps of the coming Oct-Mar will be during the final week of this month. Similar to last year.

We have a long way to go for the “wetter” part. I have a feeling the north/south gradient will continue on and our friends to the north will end up pretty wet when it’s all said and done, but we will end up quite a bit drier than normal. 

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8 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Weenies in the Eastern half of the country have got to be hating this setup right now.

I’ve seen some winter forecasts suggesting the eastern parts of Canada will see an early start to winter this year come November.  Things will probably flip for a time

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1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

Averages sure drop off quickly this time of year. Average highs here drop below 60F on this date (59.9F).  And a week from now the averages are down to 57/42

I believe October is the month in this region that has the greatest change in mean daily temperatures from one end of the month to the other.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I believe October is the month in this region that has the greatest change in mean daily temperatures from one end of the month to the other.

Makes sense given the monthly seasonal lag and how Sept has the largest decrease in total daylight.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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7D8CB1C8-94AD-42D5-B6F9-3C4597AE8B7F.thumb.jpeg.1daec52465fbe3bd881c1caef8f4d99e.jpeg

EA85E57E-7360-4E29-93F9-E255A10E1973.thumb.jpeg.ce196a98bf2377d511d745cef3684474.jpeg

Went up to Rattlesnake Ridge very early around 6 today. Good view of the marine stratus scraping the mountaintops + a cool dude down at the bottom

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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35 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

7D8CB1C8-94AD-42D5-B6F9-3C4597AE8B7F.thumb.jpeg.1daec52465fbe3bd881c1caef8f4d99e.jpeg

EA85E57E-7360-4E29-93F9-E255A10E1973.thumb.jpeg.ce196a98bf2377d511d745cef3684474.jpeg

Went up to Rattlesnake Ridge very early around 6 today. Good view of the marine stratus scraping the mountaintops + a cool dude down at the bottom

You probably know all the details.... but that "lake" disappears every fall and winter and then fills up in the spring.   Its actually the unintended consequence of the Cedar Lake reservoir (now Chester Morse Lake) being built upstream back in 1915 when the town of Moncton was flooded and then abandoned.   You can find building foundations there during times when its almost totally empty in mid-winter.

It looks so different in the summer... but those 100-year old stumps make for lots of obstacles under the water.    This is my son diving off a rock there a couple years ago... there are no stumps in this area making it a popular spot to jump into the lake.

11416369_836351069766436_6645175308704762617_o.jpg

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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10 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Weenies in the Eastern half of the country have got to be hating this setup right now.

This is actually an okay pattern here in the autumn. Plenty of rain/storm chances and not too warm. No point in blowing the cold load now only to have it flip warm in the winter.

Plus there’s the “October snow curse”. 😂 Obviously a coincidence, but still..going back to the 1800s, every year with snowfall here in October has been followed by a crap winter. Most recent example was 2011/12. Don’t wanna mess around with that.

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16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You probably know all the details.... but that "lake" disappears every fall and winter and then fills up in the spring.   Its actually the unintended consequence of the Cedar Lake reservoir (now Chester Morse Lake) being built upstream back in 1915 when the town of Moncton was flooded and then abandoned.   You can find building foundations there during times when its almost totally empty in mid-winter.

It looks so different in the summer... but those 100-year old stumps make for lots of obstacles under the water.    This is my son diving off a rock there a couple years ago... there are no stumps in this area making it a popular spot to jump into the lake.

11416369_836351069766436_6645175308704762617_o.jpg

I did know the lake emptied regularly, but I did not know it was manmade. Very interesting.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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2 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Yeah October 2019 was much more impressive got down to 32 on 10/10 here and had 4 lows in the 30s by this point. I know my location doesn’t represent the whole region…but we still haven’t even dipped into the 30s yet low of 41 this morning. We even had a low of 36 on 10/1/19. 

This cold snap is far from over.  For persistence this will be one of the all time greats for this early.  The 12z GFS shows 10 more days of well below normal temps.  2019 was just a quick shot.

I'm on a roll here.  39, 35, 36 for the past three lows.  

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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13 minutes ago, Phil said:

This is actually an okay pattern here in the autumn. Plenty of rain/storm chances and not too warm. No point in blowing the cold load now only to have it flip warm in the winter.

Plus there’s the “October snow curse”. 😂 Obviously a coincidence, but still..going back to the 1800s, every year with snowfall here in October has been followed by a crap winter. Most recent example was 2011/12. Don’t wanna mess around with that.

True, but I'm sure people who like cold are a bit annoyed at this point.  Some parts of the country are really torching.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I believe October is the month in this region that has the greatest change in mean daily temperatures from one end of the month to the other.

Yeah...the drop is pretty incredible this time of year.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

True, but I'm sure people who like cold are a bit annoyed at this point.  Some parts of the country are really torching.

And then it will suddenly flip and they will have bitter cold and snow.    Minnesota is torching but I doubt anyone is worried about winter not coming there.   😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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19 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This cold snap is far from over.  For persistence this will be one of the all time greats for this early.  The 12z GFS shows 10 more days of well below normal temps.  2019 was just a quick shot.

I'm on a roll here.  39, 35, 36 for the past three lows.  

2019 was chilly the entire month besides one wet week during the middle of the month…wasn’t really a one shot deal. Overall so far that month was more impressive than this one. Idk not too excited about it just looks consistently chilly with a few decently cold mins nothing too exciting IMO. Gfs and euro have 1 low in the 30s here over the next 10 days. Over half the mins in 2019 we’re in the 30s we still haven’t even gotten there yet. Still time to impress me but it hasn’t yet just my opinion. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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A lot of cold ensemble members even in the long range.  In fact we never get close to going above the normal line on the 850 graph.

I also have to admit I was wrong last night when I was talking about the record lows for SEA the first half of October.  They did tie a record from 1946 on the 10th in 2019, but the site I was looking at still shows 1946 as the record holder.  That having been said record lows the first half of the month have been extremely rare in the past 60 years.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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16 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Dropped down to 36 this morning after a low of 34 and 37 in the mornings prior.

I can't wait to see what we come up with on Tuesday.  I think 30 is possible.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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16 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

2019 was chilly the entire month besides one wet week during the middle of the month…wasn’t really a one shot deal. Overall so far that month was more impressive than this one. Idk not too excited about it just looks consistently chilly with a few decently cold mins nothing too exciting IMO. Gfs and euro have 1 low in the 30s here over the next 10 days. Over half the mins in 2019 we’re in the 30s we still haven’t even gotten there yet. Still time to impress me but it hasn’t yet just my opinion. 

This is just one shot cold after the other.  Hard to not be impressed, but to each his own.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Another thing to watch is how many consecutive highs below 60 we get.  Could be in record territory on that for this early.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

This cold snap is far from over.  For persistence this will be one of the all time greats for this early.  The 12z GFS shows 10 more days of well below normal temps.  2019 was just a quick shot.

I'm on a roll here.  39, 35, 36 for the past three lows.  

2019 and 2009 were much colder.

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Facebook memories popped up today from this day in 2014... leaves were much more advanced then and quite brilliant.    Unfortunately that winter did not work out so well. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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17 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I'll never forget the roar in December 2006.  That was just a notch below the Columbus Day Storm.  The name of that storm poses some problems with the liberals BTW.  We might have to rename it.

Thing about the 2006 storm, while many lost power, the highest winds were isolated. CDS legit hit the entire PNW with hurricane strength winds.

Wasn't higher than 55-60 in a lot of the PDX Metro area. Somehow we managed a full 24 hours without power in Landmark Apts (Hillsboro). 

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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12 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Good thing whatever that storm was was a non-event here. So whatever stupid name you’re talking about is something we know nothing of. Must not have been that big of a deal.
 

Please keep your agenda off the observation board.

Trust me, he's not pushing an "agenda". You'll see social media in a few days be riddled with comments like "why did we name a storm after that arsehole" or something along those lines. People hate Columbus and it has little to do with politics. So we make jokes about what we could rename it. Some very long name that sounds funny when you say it.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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39 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Went over the Bighorn mtns in the snow today. 

BFB5AD4E-E286-4A6C-942E-021CE166DA6D.jpeg

Fun! Where you headed to today?

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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11 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Fun! Where you headed to today?

Teton area I think.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Quite a bit further from record lows now than just yesterday! Now the records are mid teens and not mid 20's.

Was 16 in 1985, 23 this morning. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Just now, Timmy_Supercell said:

Quite a bit further from record lows now than just yesterday! Now the records are mid teens and not mid 20's.

Was 16 in 1985, 23 this morning. 

Brrrr.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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