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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


The Blob

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I would take your climate by a small margin over this.  You do a lot better for cold mins and snow which I really like.  Still nowhere near what I would really consider perfect though.

I think KY would have some real drawbacks for me, but they certainly get some good stuff.

KY sucks in the summer heat/humidity department. But if he enjoys severe weather, then yeah it’ll blow away what he sees in Oregon (perhaps literally). :lol: 

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31 minutes ago, snow drift said:

2007 still showing up as an analog.

610analog.off (3).gif

814analog.off (4).gif

So is 1955 and a host of other great ones.  We also need to bear in mind 2007-08 came close to greatness more than once.  If that positive anom center off the coast had been any further north it could have been much better.  This will be a weaker Nina and weaker -QBO so a good outcome is highly possible.  I would call 1955, 1970, 1971, and 2007 as well as some others pretty solid analogs right now.  As Phil pointed out 1984-85 was a -QBO and that winter was the blockiest I've ever seen as well as quite cold here.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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5 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

March is the old November now here.

Not only have more 3+ inch events happened in March, I've accumulated more days I observed snow falling. 

In WA November is hands down better with a few notable exceptions.  We have had great November events here a number of times.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

March is the old November now here.

Not only have more 3+ inch events happened in March, I've accumulated more days I observed snow falling. 

Yeah similar story here (though November has never been a legit winter month locally).

December has just collapsed as a winter month. Back in the 18th/19th centuries it performed just as well as February if not better in some decades, but now it’s basically just another autumn month.

On the other hand, the snowfall average for March actually increased in the 1991-2020 averages, and we set a new record low for the month (-2°F) in 2014.

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5 minutes ago, Phil said:

KY sucks in the summer heat/humidity department. But if he enjoys severe weather, then yeah it’ll blow away what he sees in Oregon (perhaps literally). :lol: 

I would hate the summers.  The summers here score very high points in my book.  I love the autumn here most years also.  Late winter and early spring can be a total drag though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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30 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Watching the Bobcat game (they are actually showing it!) and it looks like its a beautiful day there today.

Nice! Yeah the sun just came out this afternoon after 3 days of rain and raw temps so just about perfect timing for the game.

Tomorrow looks beautiful here as well before the winter storm moves in tomorrow night.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

So is 1955 and a host of other great ones.  We also need to bear in mind 2007-08 came close to greatness more than once.  If that positive anom center off the coast had been any further north it could have been much better.  This will be a weaker Nina and weaker -QBO so a good outcome is highly possible.  I would call 1955, 1970, 1971, and 2007 as well as some others pretty solid analogs right now.  As Phil pointed out 1984-85 was a -QBO and winter the blockiest I've ever seen as well as quite cold here.

It’s true that Niña/-QBO isn’t always a +EPO suckfest. It’s just much less reliable than Niña/+QBO. Also true that a weaker niña would make it easier for intraseasonal/MJO activity to overpower the base state, all else being equal.

But the truth is many of these -QBO/Niña patterns manifest as textbook -PNA/cold West in the autumn, but become increasingly mediocre as the cold season wears on.

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19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I have not heard of Rockwood Farm... but probably have been in that area.   Are these pics from near there?   Top one was late October in 2017 and bottom was late October in 2018.

 

22712393_1481688538566016_5571799770796352363_o.jpg

44573182_1907042452697287_3691438590350327808_n.jpg

Definitely! This looks like it’s it! 

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Looks like the streak of sub 60 highs will continue.  I'm going to have to find the top Octobers for consecutive sub 60 highs and the coldest first half.  Going to take a while to crunch that.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, Cloud said:

Definitely! This looks like it’s it! 

Hopefully we get some sunny days late in the month... the best time is usually the last week of October and that is when both of those pics were taken.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

It’s true that Niña/-QBO isn’t always a +EPO suckfest. It’s just much less reliable than Niña/+QBO. Also true that a weaker niña would make it easier for intraseasonal/MJO activity to overpower the base state, all else being equal.

But the truth is many of these -QBO/Niña patterns manifest as textbook -PNA/cold West in the autumn, but become increasingly mediocre as the cold season wears on.

True.  I'm kind of banking on the solar minimum doldrums (amplified wave train) continuing this winter. 

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I would hate the summers.  The summers here score very high points in my book.  I love the autumn here most years also.  Late winter and early spring can be a total drag though.

It’s funny since that’s (usually) when our interesting weather peaks. August-October is by far our most “boring” time of year weather wise (with the infrequent exception of tropical systems and late season thunderstorms).

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

It’s funny since that’s usually when our interesting weather peaks. August-October is by far our most “boring” time of year weather wise (with the infrequent exception of tropical systems and late season thunderstorms).

Late winter and early spring can be so incredibly dull and gloomy here sometimes.  Obviously winter can be horrible sometimes as well.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Hopefully we get some sunny days late in the month... the best time is usually the last week of October and that is when both of those pics were taken.

Agreed! I pretty much told my wife that we are a couple weeks early but she insisted on going because of the perfect picture day yesterday. Hopefully we’ll get a few a more of those in the coming weeks! 
 

We also had a really nice shots of Si yesterday but it’s on her sister’s camera so I need to steal that! 
 

We’ll probably try Discovery Park next time since it’s closer to home. 
 

 

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13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

In WA November is hands down better with a few notable exceptions.  We have had great November events here a number of times.

March has snowed all month long from beginning to end at least 3 times since I came here, and to my recollection November has never done that since probably 1985. There can easily be years my first measurable snows are just a few days before December. First in 2018 was an hour before Dec. (lol)

  • Snow 1

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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33 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

So is 1955 and a host of other great ones.  We also need to bear in mind 2007-08 came close to greatness more than once.  If that positive anom center off the coast had been any further north it could have been much better.  This will be a weaker Nina and weaker -QBO so a good outcome is highly possible.  I would call 1955, 1970, 1971, and 2007 as well as some others pretty solid analogs right now.  As Phil pointed out 1984-85 was a -QBO and that winter was the blockiest I've ever seen as well as quite cold here.

07-08 was ridiculously snowy over here and so was 1964-65. We don't need Arctic air to get snow over here. Cold maritime air masses will do the trick.

 

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19 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like the streak of sub 60 highs will continue.  I'm going to have to find the top Octobers for consecutive sub 60 highs and the coldest first half.  Going to take a while to crunch that.

Haven’t got to 60 here in 7 days now won’t get there today. In 2019 I think we only had 2 or 3 days actually hit 60 early in the month the entire month was in the 50s with 5 different days only hitting the mid to upper 40s. 49/32 on 10/10/19 and also a 46/30 on 10/30/19. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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37 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like the streak of sub 60 highs will continue.  I'm going to have to find the top Octobers for consecutive sub 60 highs and the coldest first half.  Going to take a while to crunch that.

The variability last October was interesting, the warmest first week of October in 24 years, then later tanked with 2019 like days. Had a low of 13 on the 26th, 5 days in a row under 20.

The 3 highs in the mid-80's at the beginning was the warmest October weather since 1996.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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22 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

March has snowed all month long from beginning to end at least 3 times since I came here, and to my recollection November has never done that since probably 1985. There can easily be years my first measurable snows are just a few days before December. First in 2018 was an hour before Dec. (lol)

We've had quite a few memorable Novembers over the years. March is hit or miss.

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1 minute ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

The variability last October was interesting, the warmest first week of October in 24 years, then later tanked with 2019 like days. Had a low of 13 on the 26th, 5 days in a row under 20.

The 3 highs in the mid-80's at the beginning was the warmest October weather since 1996.

It was rather bipolar.

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5 minutes ago, snow drift said:

We've had quite a few memorable Novembers over the years. March is hit or miss.

2010 was big. That was the last time a ground accumulation over a foot happened by Thanksgiving.

The one thing November has over March is that bigger storms can still happen. But if I told someone visiting here what each month is like, I'd call November very dry and not that snowy. 

  • Snow 1

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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4 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

2010 was big. That was the last time a ground accumulation over a foot happened by Thanksgiving.

The one thing November has over March is that bigger storms can still happen. But if I told someone visiting here what each month is like, I'd call November very dry and not that snowy. 

November 2010 is the snowiest here and 1985 is the 2nd snowiest. November has less daylight and a lower sun angle, so it's easier to maintain snowcover. March is a spring month. Snow is more likely to melt then.

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

It’s true that Niña/-QBO isn’t always a +EPO suckfest. It’s just much less reliable than Niña/+QBO. Also true that a weaker niña would make it easier for intraseasonal/MJO activity to overpower the base state, all else being equal.

But the truth is many of these -QBO/Niña patterns manifest as textbook -PNA/cold West in the autumn, but become increasingly mediocre as the cold season wears on.

Do you think the -PDO could increase the chances of a cold and snowy PNW this winter?

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1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Haven’t got to 60 here in 7 days now won’t get there today. In 2019 I think we only had 2 or 3 days actually hit 60 early in the month the entire month was in the 50s with 5 different days only hitting the mid to upper 40s. 49/32 on 10/10/19 and also a 46/30 on 10/30/19. 

We're easily going to come in colder than 2019 for the first half of the month.  I just ran it and SEA is only 1 degree above the first half of 2019 for the month to date with next week certain to be colder.  There were two cold periods in 2019 whereas this is going to be constant for the first half.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, snow drift said:

November 2010 is the snowiest here and 1985 is the 2nd snowiest. November has less daylight and a lower sun angle, so it's easier to maintain snowcover. March is a spring month. Snow is more likely to melt then.

Indeed.  Even over here we had snow cover for weeks in 1985.  You also have 1896 which was another huge November as well as really solid ones in 1921, 1946, 1955, and a few others.  There are some amazing March events...most notably 1951 which had snow cover for many days here, but they are often very melty as you say.

  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

18z GEFS moved that trough way back west now. Little rug-pull appetizer for @snow_wizard Here is last 12 runs for day 12 and 8

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_fh192_trend.gif

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_fh294_trend.gif

We will probably come in between the two.  That's where the EPS is putting it.

Besides...we have at least another solid week of cold coming.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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27 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

Do you think the -PDO could increase the chances of a cold and snowy PNW this winter?

Interestingly the PDO came in 15th lowest for September with records dating back to the late 1870s.  

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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GFS is pretty dull. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We're easily going to come in colder than 2019 for the first half of the month.  I just ran it and SEA is only 1 degree above the first half of 2019 for the month to date with next week certain to be colder.  There were two cold periods in 2019 whereas this is going to be constant for the first half.

Interesting…here were at +1.6 through the first half of the month compared to the first half of October 2019. Probably going to end up warmer here than that 2019.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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I think the last time it snowed here in Nov was in 2003.

  • Storm 1

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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Just now, TacomaWaWx said:

Nothing in 2006 or 2010? 

Not that I remember. Haven’t had a white Christmas since 1990 either. We’re a really bad location.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Not that I remember. Haven’t had a white Christmas since 1990 either. We’re a really bad location.

Even here we don’t get snow every year. I have considered moving to Montana with my mom in the butte area to start over and to live in a much more interesting climate. Most people wouldn’t move just based on the weather in a region but I’m not most people 😂

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Even here we don’t get snow every year. I have considered moving to Montana with my mom in the butte area to start over and to live in a much more interesting climate. Most people wouldn’t move just based on the weather in a region but I’m not most people 😂

I have lots of reasons for wanting to move. Family to get close to as well as some to get away from for reasons that are too painful to talk about. Mostly just because I will better be able to take care of my mother in law who had a heart attack and needs to live closer to both her kids and myself. Seizures make the process tougher but I’m trying to make money any way I can so I can move to Indiana. Let’s just say it’s a slow, slow burn.

And I also just get so bored with the same monotonous weather every year. I’ve forgotten what a day that stays below freezing feels like.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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