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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


The Blob

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1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I have lots of reasons for wanting to move. Family to get close to as well as some to get away from for reasons that are too painful to talk about. Mostly just because I will better be able to take care of my mother in law who had a heart attack and needs to live closer to both her kids and myself. Seizures make the process tougher but I’m trying to make money any way I can so I can move to Indiana. Let’s just say it’s a slow, slow burn.

And I also just get so bored with the same monotonous weather every year. I’ve forgotten what a day that stays below freezing feels like.

I can’t say I understand since I don’t have epilepsy like you that sounds terrible. Hope you find your happiness and can live life more comfortably eventually. Lots of us on here have problems. Me personally the last 2 months I’ve started having severe panic attacks. Start hyperventilating and having a hard time breathing with racing uncontrollable thoughts. Have had an ongoing situation with a former friend of mine stalking and harassing me almost daily and the police will do nothing about it…despite him consistently violating my restraining order against him. Few months ago he broke into my car and cut the fuel line in my car and my car nearly caught it on fire driving down the road to work. Have had increased anxiety the last 2 years or so but have really been going through it myself and this is an entirely different level of stress. Might be moving to Montana to start over and get away from him…but the climate would sure be a really nice added bonus! 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 hour ago, AbbyJr said:

Do you think the -PDO could increase the chances of a cold and snowy PNW this winter?

No. For all intents and purposes it’s an echo of low frequency tendencies in the North Pacific circulation. It doesn’t force patterns one way or another.

That said, it can be useful for some elements of predictability (at long lead times) since years with particular PDO signals tend to feature particular modes of rossby wave breaking, which can be relevant on the seasonal scale. 

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It did snow in Eugene in November 2010. About an inch. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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10 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I can’t say I understand since I don’t have epilepsy like you that sounds terrible. Hope you find your happiness and can live life more comfortably eventually. Lots of us on here have problems. Me personally the last 2 months I’ve started having severe panic attacks. Start hyperventilating and having a hard time breathing with racing uncontrollable thoughts. Have had an ongoing situation with a former friend of mine stalking and harassing me almost daily and the police will do nothing about it…despite him consistently violating my restraining order against him. Few months ago he broke into my car and cut the fuel line in my car and my car nearly caught it on fire driving down the road to work. Have had increased anxiety the last 2 years or so but have really been going through it myself and this is an entirely different level of stress. Might be moving to Montana to start over and get away from him…but the climate would sure be a really nice added bonus! 

If I were in your shoes, I’d…do something about the situation with your former friend. Only a matter of time before something happens to you at rate it’s going.

Not saying murder the guy, but you have to stand up for your own life at some point.

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44 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Interesting…here were at +1.6 through the first half of the month compared to the first half of October 2019. Probably going to end up warmer here than that 2019.

You may have overperformed (or underperformed in this case) compared to other places in 2019.  I had 11 days in the 60s in 2019.  No doubt there were two notable cold snaps that month though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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35 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I think the last time it snowed here in Nov was in 2003.

In November WA usually outperforms OR by quite a margin.  One big exception was 1977 when NW OR got more snow than we did.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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35 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Even here we don’t get snow every year. I have considered moving to Montana with my mom in the butte area to start over and to live in a much more interesting climate. Most people wouldn’t move just based on the weather in a region but I’m not most people 😂

I think this would be a great idea.  The wife and I always come up with a million reasons why moving to Idaho or Montana won't work.

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13 minutes ago, Phil said:

If I were in your shoes, I’d…do something about the situation with your former friend. Only a matter of time before something happens to you at rate it’s going.

Not saying murder the guy, but you have to stand up for your own life at some point.

Oh trust me I’ve thought about it but unfortunately in our society he’s somehow more protected than I am. There was literally no point in getting a restraining order I’ve called the police atleast 30 times reporting violations but I’ve just given up they won’t do anything…I have a camera and have got him on video and they STILL do nothing. Moving somewhere else is my only option. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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20 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I can’t say I understand since I don’t have epilepsy like you that sounds terrible. Hope you find your happiness and can live life more comfortably eventually. Lots of us on here have problems. Me personally the last 2 months I’ve started having severe panic attacks. Start hyperventilating and having a hard time breathing with racing uncontrollable thoughts. Have had an ongoing situation with a former friend of mine stalking and harassing me almost daily and the police will do nothing about it…despite him consistently violating my restraining order against him. Few months ago he broke into my car and cut the fuel line in my car and my car nearly caught it on fire driving down the road to work. Have had increased anxiety the last 2 years or so but have really been going through it myself and this is an entirely different level of stress. Might be moving to Montana to start over and get away from him…but the climate would sure be a really nice added bonus! 

Wow.  That sounds pretty awful.

I have serious anxiety issues as well.  It took me a good two weeks to get comfortable in my new job that I got a month ago.  Just stupid little things set off my anxiety and it gets to be a serious bummer.  If you haven't done it already you should get some kind of medication for it..  I only take very small amounts, but it knocks the edge off.  With such small amounts it has very limited side effects.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Oh trust me I’ve thought about it but unfortunately in our society he’s somehow more protected than I am. There was literally no point in getting a restraining order I’ve called the police atleast 30 times reporting violations but I’ve just given up they won’t do anything…I have a camera and have got him on video and they STILL do nothing. Moving somewhere else is my only option. 

I think I would move in your case.  I couldn't live like that.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, ..... said:

I think this would be a great idea.  The wife and I always come up with a million reasons why moving to Idaho or Montana won't work.

Even Central WA or Spokane would do the trick.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, ..... said:

Quite frankly it doesn't matter what the models show.  What actually happens is what matters.

True.  The models have been struggling with placement on that day 8 trough anyway.  Very tricky progression.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Wow.  That sounds pretty awful.

I have serious anxiety issues as well.  It took me a good two weeks to get comfortable in my new job that I got a month ago.  Just stupid little things set off my anxiety and it gets to be a serious bummer.  If you haven't done it already you should get some kind of medication for it..  I only take very small amounts, but it knocks the edge off.  With such small amounts it has very limited side effects.

Maybe some CBD gummies rather than pharmaceutical drugs?

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

True.  The models have been struggling with placement on that day 8 trough anyway.  Very tricky progression.

Big picture though I like what October has looked like.  Hopefully we can get it to repeat the pattern with more intensity in November December or January.

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think I would move in your case.  I couldn't live like that.

It’s a horrible predicament. I’ve lived in this nieghboorhood my whole life and don’t feel safe here anymore. I get an amazing deal on rent for how nice my nieghboorhood is…this is home to me I love it here and I feel like I’m being forced out of my home by a lunatic that I’m totally unprotected from it’s a horrible thing. But anyways I don’t want to rant about it all day this is a weather forum sorry y’all. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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10 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Currently back home in Tigard but will be heading back to Corvallis tomorrow.

3 pounds of beef went into the oven this time. Roommate and neighbors are gonna love this! Best batch yet!

64F7524E-EBC5-4458-82C1-CE2BE4B9D15D.thumb.jpeg.73417bf512638a332d2ae43ecdf68aab.jpeg

gross dumb and dumber GIF

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1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Even here we don’t get snow every year. I have considered moving to Montana with my mom in the butte area to start over and to live in a much more interesting climate. Most people wouldn’t move just based on the weather in a region but I’m not most people 😂

You'd have to get used to almost no transition between Winter and Summer ;)

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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16 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

That’s only 3 hour precipitation. 48 hours isn’t much different though.

image.thumb.png.ab62eb9c40cc792780e13074822bd113.png

 

Everybody kept telling he how wet the models were. About that…

I was just showing that there is a period when there is almost no precip across the entire lower 48... sort of interesting.

This run is basically dry for us for most of week 2.   That would be really nice at this point.   It would be great to have a week to enjoy some beautiful October weather.   Before the trees are all bare and its raining every day and the gloom settles in for good.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I was just showing that there is a period when there is almost no precip across the entire lower 48... sort of interesting.

This run is basically dry for us for most of week 2.   That would be really nice at this point.   It would be great to have a week to enjoy some beautiful October weather.   Before the trees are all bare and its raining every day and the gloom settles in for good.

I understand why a lot of people would like that. Down here, we can’t keep affording to have below normal precipitation. The couple of over-producing storms in September are meaningless in the scheme of things. I cannot root for anything other than wet, wet, wet. Besides the benefit to our ecosystem, that’s the type of weather I enjoy. 

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6 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

I understand why a lot of people would like that. Down here, we can’t keep affording to have below normal precipitation. The couple of over-producing storms in September are meaningless in the scheme of things. I cannot root for anything other than wet, wet, wet. Besides the benefit to our ecosystem, that’s the type of weather I enjoy. 

Well-timed precip in the late spring and summer matters more.   Its going to rain plenty over the next 6 months.    Portland could have 100 inches of rain between now and March and then still be a dry wasteland of dying trees if its 95 degrees and sunny all summer.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 hours ago, Omegaraptor said:

Currently back home in Tigard but will be heading back to Corvallis tomorrow.

3 pounds of beef went into the oven this time. Roommate and neighbors are gonna love this! Best batch yet!

64F7524E-EBC5-4458-82C1-CE2BE4B9D15D.thumb.jpeg.73417bf512638a332d2ae43ecdf68aab.jpeg

Did you cure it or just brine and dry?

I currently have 5# in a dry cure/brine, set to go into the smoker in the morning.

Curing with Tender Quick makes it shelf stable without refrigeration even though it rarely lasts long enough!!!

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6 minutes ago, Brennan said:

Don’t worry guys I’m still alive. 

Now it’s guaranteed to be a wild winter…Brennan is back!! How’s life up in Whatcom Co? Or did you move to Kentucky as well? 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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And the ECMWF is back to showing the day 7 / 8 trough being closer and cooler again.  The possible interaction with that southern branch system is giving the models fits with that one.  It's kind of a big deal how that trough plays out, because the models agree there will be a considerable cold pool in play.  If it goes right we get a probable three day or so extension on the well below normal temps.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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13 minutes ago, Brennan said:

Don’t worry guys I’m still alive. 

Might be the one we've been waiting for.  Maybe....

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The ECMWF ends on a very interesting note.  Intense trough just off the coast with a mega Aleutian / western GOA block behind it.  Could end up with almost no window for warmth if it's correct.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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