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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


The Blob

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9 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Hey, it’s fall. So it is what it is. You can’t control it, just like the summer we just went through with all that dry! 

I am well aware that we can't control it... but we normally get at least one dry week in October so it's not unreasonable to hope for it.     Everyone is here is always hoping for something.  😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Image saved... that will come in handy!  

Jesse would have loved it. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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5 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Just noticed that there is actually some frost on top of the car in driveway.   Maybe it was colder before and warming up now.   The North Bend station bottomed out this morning at 35.4 degrees.

I think it’s colder at your mountaintop estate than at that north bend station.

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I am well aware that we can't control it... but we normally get at least one dry week in October so it's not unreasonable to hope for it.     Everyone on is here is always hoping for something.  😀

We may have possibly used that up the first few days of October. Thinking at this point we won’t have any chance to dry out the rest of this month. At least a prolonged period of dryness. 

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

I think it’s colder at your mountaintop estate than at that north bend station.

Shows how little you know about our microclimates.   Its often warmer up here on clear nights with radiational cooling than it is down in the valley.    In fact... that is the norm.   

Side note... I don't think being 500 feet higher than SEA and North Bend counts as a "mountaintop".   It is often just enough to give us better mixing on clear nights though.

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4 minutes ago, Cloud said:

We may have possibly used that up the first few days of October. Thinking at this point we won’t have any chance to dry out the rest of this month. At least a prolonged period of dryness. 

I am getting the same feeling... maybe we will get an early spring with a developing Nino.   

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1 hour ago, The Blob said:

I knew I should have driven out to Crown Point last night

Screenshot_20211012-101620_Facebook.jpg

There’s nothing there. Ask Chris.

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Here is a little visual for Phil... pulled this picture taken from the Rattlesnake Ledge.     My area is marked by the red circle and North Bend is the blue circle area.    My area is really just an elevated plateau in the Snoqualmie Valley.   Real mountains rise up in all directions around my house.      We definitely don't live on a mountaintop.   😀

298c9df1-ff89-4888-adb6-c853690d3658.jpeg

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Here is a little visual for Phil... pulled this picture taken from the Rattlesnake Ledge.     My area is marked by the red circle and North Bend is the blue circle area.    My area is really just an elevated plateau in the Snoqualmie Valley.   Real mountains rise up in all directions around my house.      We definitely don't live on a mountaintop.   😀

298c9df1-ff89-4888-adb6-c853690d3658.jpeg

He thinks you live on Mt.Si

close enough!

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16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Shows how little you know about our microclimates.   Its often warmer up here on clear nights with radiational cooling than it is down in the valley.    In fact... that is the norm.   

Side note... I don't think being 500 feet higher than SEA and North Bend counts as a "mountaintop".   It is often just enough to give us better mixing on clear nights though.

“Mountaintop” was tongue in cheek, Dr. Literal.

Yes, I know how radiational cooling/cold pooling works. Happens a lot here on the lee side of the appalachians. Sometimes the valleys are 15-20°F cooler than the ridges at sunrise.

Still, that doesn’t preclude your location from from being cooler under certain circumstances. Frost (usually) doesn’t develop w/ 35+ degree temps, even under clear/calm conditions. Unless there’s a very, very shallow cold layer in an environment lacking any and all air movement whatsoever.

Or perhaps the north bend station is on a rooftop, sitting above the shallow surface inversion.

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7 minutes ago, Phil said:

“Mountaintop” was tongue in cheek bro. Yes, I know how radiational cooling/cold pooling works. Happens a lot here on the lee side of the appalachians. Sometimes the valleys are 15-20°F cooler than the ridges at sunrise.

Still, that doesn’t preclude your location from from being cooler under certain circumstances. Frost (usually) doesn’t develop with 35+ degree temps, even under clear/calm conditions. Unless there’s a very, very shallow cold layer in an environment lacking any and all air movement.

In a normal cold season... Olympia has WAY more frosty nights than we do up here.   We get way more snow, but my area is quite often one of the warmest spots in the lowlands on clear nights in the winter since there is usually at least some drainage wind providing mixing and often a full on east wind which goes right over places to the west like OLM.    SEA has similar characteristics and is prone to wind on clear winter nights (and thus warmer) being up on an elevated plateau.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Here is a little visual for Phil... pulled this picture taken from the Rattlesnake Ledge.     My area is marked by the red circle and North Bend is the blue circle area.    My area is really just an elevated plateau in the Snoqualmie Valley.   Real mountains rise up in all directions around my house.      We definitely don't live on a mountaintop.   😀

298c9df1-ff89-4888-adb6-c853690d3658.jpeg

It’s actually really cool you can see your neighborhood from there! Only chance I get to see mine  is when I’m on an airplane and try real hard! I live really close to the flight path. 

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8 minutes ago, Cloud said:

It’s actually really cool you can see your neighborhood from there! Only chance I get to see mine  is when I’m on an airplane and try real hard! I live really close to the flight path. 

Yes... from the ledge you can definitely see our neighborhood but you have to be in the right spot since most of the view is to the east.    Its also easier to make it out during the afternoon when the sun is high.    That picture above was taken around dawn so there is lots of shadowing down in the valley.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Looks like the euro cut back the totals for this upcoming week here (as expected) but makes up for it later in the run. Looks like a desert down in Oregon. 

13CD7C74-ACFD-431B-B015-7C8C66E6D911.jpeg

E934AE9C-61D2-4CD2-8C4B-D3950ADB09DE.jpeg

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Tim certainly gets more snow than us, even though I’m 700’ higher. His higher latitude and most importantly C-zone, give him a major advantage there. Also he does get some seepage through snoqualmie pass. 
 

BUT, we definitely have significantly more frost/freezes. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Tim certainly gets more snow than us, even though I’m 700’ higher. His higher latitude and most importantly C-zone, give him a major advantage there. Also he does get some seepage through snoqualmie pass. 
 

BUT, we definitely have significantly more frost/freezes. 

All true.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, TacomaWaWx said:

Looks like the euro cut back the totals for this upcoming week here (as expected) but makes up for it later in the run. 

13CD7C74-ACFD-431B-B015-7C8C66E6D911.jpeg

E934AE9C-61D2-4CD2-8C4B-D3950ADB09DE.jpeg

That’s not bad. We’re at about 1.73” for the month. Which is a lot better than where most of the valley is at. This would put us around 4” by the 22nd, around average. 
 

 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That’s not bad. We’re at about 1.73” for the month. Which is a lot better than where most of the valley is at. This would put us around 4” by the 22nd, around average. 
 

 

Coming off last month too things are definitely going the right direction down there. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Got home last night. We had planned to be gone a little longer, but my wife is moving towards the end of the 2nd trimester, so she was feeling it was best to head home given the amount of snow and cold we had already been camping in for a few days. Great trip, we had been gone since the 27th, and actually pretty much been on the road since September 10th. Amazing how much greener things are than when we left. Fall colors should peak up here next week. We ended up with 5.75” of rain in September. Pretty solid, 216% of average. 2nd wettest September since 2011 here, and looking at the long term Silver Falls data, it’s in the top 10 since 1938. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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30 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Here is a little visual for Phil... pulled this picture taken from the Rattlesnake Ledge.     My area is marked by the red circle and North Bend is the blue circle area.    My area is really just an elevated plateau in the Snoqualmie Valley.   Real mountains rise up in all directions around my house.      We definitely don't live on a mountaintop.   😀

298c9df1-ff89-4888-adb6-c853690d3658.jpeg

That’s not too different. Probably just a slightly better maintained surface inversion at your location.

Were you able to figure out precisely where the NB station is sited? I must know. 🤓 

 

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Can definitely see how that valley might hold onto shallow cold air during WAA, under the right conditions.

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5 minutes ago, Phil said:

That’s not too different. Probably just a slightly better maintained surface inversion at your location.

Were you able to figure out precisely where the NB station is sited? I must know. 🤓 

 

There are numerous stations in NB.    I usually take the average.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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10 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Looks like the euro cut back the totals for this upcoming week here (as expected) but makes up for it later in the run. Looks like a desert down in Oregon. 

13CD7C74-ACFD-431B-B015-7C8C66E6D911.jpeg

E934AE9C-61D2-4CD2-8C4B-D3950ADB09DE.jpeg

Always just 7-10 days out

 

11 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Looks like the euro cut back the totals for this upcoming week here (as expected) but makes up for it later in the run. Looks like a desert down in Oregon. 

13CD7C74-ACFD-431B-B015-7C8C66E6D911.jpeg

E934AE9C-61D2-4CD2-8C4B-D3950ADB09DE.jpeg

Always 7+ days out. We know the low will end up well west of where it is forecasted by the Euro on this run.

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5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Can definitely see how that valley might hold onto shallow cold air during WAA, under the right conditions.

Definitely... sometimes it can take forever to mix out with weak to even moderate SW flow.     2/12/19 is a great example.   It just kept snowing and snowing here while it was raining just to our west... 3+ feet of snow.  

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2 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Always just 7-10 days out

 

Always 7+ days out. We know the low will end up well west of where it is forecasted by the Euro on this run.

You’ve quickly surpassed TWL as biggest weenie status in little time. It’s not even close 😂

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Still quite early in the seasonal progression, but (IMO) the early indicators aren’t suggestive of a hyper zonal outcome this winter like 2011/12, 1999/00, 1974/75, etc.

Doesn’t mean we’ll mirror 1970/71 or 1984/85, but perhaps a the “worst case” won’t come to pass.

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