snow_wizard Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 It wouldn't shock me at all if we get a major cold shot at the end of the month after the ridge. The ECMWF suite of models is showing that ridge will be very short lived. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: I see OLM hit 29 this morning and Shelton 28. This cold snap is just killing it in this area. Pretty much every day has come in below projections for low temps for days now. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, Cloud said: And I also never mentioned the June heatwave.. I said one of the heatwave days, we’ve had many of those. I ruled the June ones out because it was exceptional, I tend to lean towards the later heatwave ones when it was in the 90s. You can’t tell me a stat that stood for over 125 years and an overnight low that was broken since 1946 wasn’t exceptional. The June heatwave was exceptional. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 1 hour ago, GHweatherChris said: It shouldn't have any statistical significance for any of us, unless someone lives in a shack on a runway. I find it rather significant, and for the record, its really not a bad place to live as long as you have a good set of earplugs. Also, you call it a "shack," I like to think of it as the "Palace on the Plateau" Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: This is way more impressive than 2019 when you consider duration and intensity both. Most places are going to come in way colder for the first half of the month than 2019. This is also happening with a Nina which makes it more of prize if you want a sign for a cold winter. It's impressive over there. Over here 2009 and 2019 were both colder. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, snow drift said: It's impressive over there. Over here 2009 and 2019 were both colder. 2009 was a total nothing burger here and that was a Nino anyway. The context and intensity / persistence of this cold period is quite significant. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 6 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: The June heatwave was exceptional. It certainly was. Probably the most anomalous thing I've ever seen. That having been said the accomplishment for Seattle today was pretty exceptional also. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 More below normal days showing up on the 0z GFS now. A chilly little clipper after day 10. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: 2009 was a total nothing burger here and that was a Nino anyway. The context and intensity / persistence of this cold period is quite significant. The first 15 days of October 2009 all featured below average high temperatures. 14 of the first 15 days in October 2019 featured below average high temperatures. The first half of October 2019 also featured a significant snowfall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 Let's play a game. Take the incredibly rare and unprecedented June heatwave with 500mb heights many standard deviations above normal and now apply a similar anomalous event same scope and magnitude, but in January with an arctic blast. What realistic #'s would you throw out there for High/Low temps? 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 Just now, DJ Droppin said: Let's play a game. Take the incredibly rare and unprecedented June heatwave with 500mb heights many standard deviations above normal and now apply a similar anomalous event same scope and magnitude, but in January with an arctic blast. What realistic #'s would you throw out there for High/Low temps? 5/-10 for Seattle 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: Let's play a game. Take the incredibly rare and unprecedented June heatwave with 500mb heights many standard deviations above normal and now apply a similar anomalous event same scope and magnitude, but in January with an arctic blast. What realistic #'s would you throw out there for High/Low temps? I'm thinking December 1968, December 1978, or January 1888. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWillarrive Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Let's play a game. Take the incredibly rare and unprecedented June heatwave with 500mb heights many standard deviations above normal and now apply a similar anomalous event same scope and magnitude, but in January with an arctic blast. What realistic #'s would you throw out there for High/Low temps? 0 degree high and -20 nighttime low for Seattle with 5 feet of snow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 October 2009 was very cold nationally. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 LR GFS brings back the Greenland vortex. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said: I am truly actually quite impressed with the persistence fred should come up with a new badge. Pestilence. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: October 2009 was very cold nationally. Second coldest on record for Denver. One of only two years where October was colder then November. The Rockies made the playoffs that year...if memory serves, the coldest MLB game on record also occurred in Denver that month. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 Autumn starts so d**n early out West. Year after year since I joined this forum, I watch in envy as y’all post about frosts, freezes, fall colors, etc while I’m stuck with 80+ degree highs laaaate into the autumn. 2 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 11 minutes ago, Phil said: Autumn starts so d**n early out West. Year after year since I joined this forum, I watch in envy as y’all post about frosts, freezes, fall colors, etc while I’m stuck with 80+ degree highs laaaate into the autumn. Here’s some more fall pictures for you Phil. Enjoy this panorama view of the pumpkin patch, cloudy skies and Sasquatch! It was low 50s today. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 13 minutes ago, Phil said: Autumn starts so d**n early out West. Year after year since I joined this forum, I watch in envy as y’all post about frosts, freezes, fall colors, etc while I’m stuck with 80+ degree highs laaaate into the autumn. Never had an early Fall, or on par with the west? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 18 minutes ago, Phil said: Autumn starts so d**n early out West. Year after year since I joined this forum, I watch in envy as y’all post about frosts, freezes, fall colors, etc while I’m stuck with 80+ degree highs laaaate into the autumn. Stick to the appropriate thread for your location and you wouldn't even worry about it. Thanks, from the fat asss from Washington!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 1 hour ago, DJ Droppin said: Let's play a game. Take the incredibly rare and unprecedented June heatwave with 500mb heights many standard deviations above normal and now apply a similar anomalous event same scope and magnitude, but in January with an arctic blast. What realistic #'s would you throw out there for High/Low temps? Single digit lows, highs in the mid upper teens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 46/32 here today. With just shy of 1/4” of rain. Cold and damp! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 1 hour ago, DJ Droppin said: Let's play a game. Take the incredibly rare and unprecedented June heatwave with 500mb heights many standard deviations above normal and now apply a similar anomalous event same scope and magnitude, but in January with an arctic blast. What realistic #'s would you throw out there for High/Low temps? Lows in the negatives west side region wide, highs no higher than 25° region wide for no less than 3 days consecutively, west side only taken in to account. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 I don't hate this, if the EURO is correct. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 8 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: I don't hate this, if the EURO is correct. Too early. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 45 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Never had an early Fall, or on par with the west? Not once has fall started here before the West. We’re always the last in line. Yet somehow we manage to go from winter straight to summer in 3-4 weeks. Lol. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 Just now, Phil said: Not once has fall started here before the West. We’re always the last in line. I heard Antarctica is pretty nice this time of the year 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 U ready for this? @Timmy_Supercell 1 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: Too early. Too early for what? Rain? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, Phil said: Not once has fall started here before the West. We’re always the last in line. Yet somehow we manage to go from winter straight to summer in 3-4 weeks. Lol. You maybe be a bit too far south. Because I’m pretty sure New England is a couple weeks ahead of us in terms of foliage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: Too early for what? Rain? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 5 minutes ago, Phil said: U ready for this? @Timmy_Supercell 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 13 minutes ago, Phil said: U ready for this? @Timmy_Supercell I think team skarknado would sit that one out 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: I think team skarknado would sit that one out Yeah, no. I think we’re good! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 26 minutes ago, Cloud said: You maybe be a bit too far south. Because I’m pretty sure New England is a couple weeks ahead of us in terms of foliage. New England is in an entirely different universe climate wise. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 25 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 6 hours ago, snow_wizard said: This is way more impressive than 2019 when you consider duration and intensity both. Most places are going to come in way colder for the first half of the month than 2019. This is also happening with a Nina which makes it more of prize if you want a sign for a cold winter. The end of September 2019 was more impressive than this. 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 4 hours ago, Cloud said: You maybe be a bit too far south. Because I’m pretty sure New England is a couple weeks ahead of us in terms of foliage. Depends on where you are. Most of the cities in New England right now are still a rather mixed bag in terms of bright foliage. Many more birch and maple trees here of course so those are now turning with the ash trees coming in slowly, but nothing at an earlier date than what you'd expect in WA/OR/ID. The hills are a different story of course but the same is true if you head up to the Cascades right now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Lake Oswego Posted October 13, 2021 Report Share Posted October 13, 2021 The 6z GFS leaves us high and dry this weekend. The firehose is pointed right at Vancouver Island. If you look at the progression of the last 5 or so runs, the bullseye keeps moving north. It always does. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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