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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


The Blob

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1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

LR 06z GFS has a suspiciously cold system a the end of its run. Temps around 40 in the heart of the afternoon and some mixing in the foothills. We’re getting closer!

Culver Josh could see some snow around hour 372. The long range GFS is pretty fun. 
 

42 with light rain this morning. 0.12” since midnight. Damp. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

We're at 53.3F for an avg so far and there are a lot of Octobers that averaged lower. Checked ACIS. for it.

Currently in 22nd place for 1st 12 days of Oct and the #s for the 13th will show an avg around -3F or so. Will likely bump us into the top 20 thru 13 days in Oct.

Top 20 isn't bad. Can you send me the link to the site you use? I want to plug in some numbers from other stations. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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9 hours ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Found this cool article on the hood canal   and why they get more snow then Seattle 

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/weatherpapers/082/index.html

A similar pattern of cold air banking against the Coast Mountains also helps the BC Lower Mainland get more snow than Whatcom County. (On average, at least; it certainly did not happen last winter.) Am looking forward to being on the statistically winning side of that tendency this winter 😀.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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2 hours ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

The 00z Euro operational bowed to the GFS and really backed down on the QPF for next week. The ensembles are quite a bit drier through the run too. This weekend is looking quite unimpressive. Maybe .25'' - .50'' for most of the lowlands from Eugene to Seattle. Just calling it like I see it. Vancouver Island is going to get absolutely hosed in the next 7-10 days. So close, but so far.

 

Or less than .25'' looking at the 12z GFS and ICON.

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5 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Whitecaps!

50 degrees here with some sun at the moment. Brisk and refreshing on my morning walk. 

08F4B786-A5B2-4E15-AD7C-DF5A2D411378.jpeg

Raining here. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Top 20 isn't bad. Can you send me the link to the site you use? I want to plug in some numbers from other stations. 

I use https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org for my reference. I make sure to check it before I post so as to compare it with Springfield. But sometimes the airport is far enough NW that it sees different conditions than the SE valley.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Pretty wet morning in progress. Quasi-stationary rain band against the foothills. 0.21" since midnight. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Looks like Springfield was 4F warmer than the airport yesterday.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Monday's high of 49 was chilly, I'm not sure where to find record "cold highs" - but here's 10/11 other years.

I think it might be 46 (?) but has no year next to it. 

2021: 49
2020: 62
2019: 64
2018: 62
2017: 50
2016: 68
2015: 73
2014: 69
2013: 57
2012: 75
2011: 59
2010: 64
2009: 70
2008: 48***

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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 40F outside at 7am this morning. We had to scrape but not too cold out 

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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This is good eye candy... A month later and this is a major snow event from Albany north. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_57.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Things get fun the last week of October. MBG.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_64.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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11 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Would be fun to have a high below 60F.

Would be fun to have a low below 60°F. :lol:

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Re: medium/long range guidance, that might be the most impressive STJ pattern I’ve ever seen during a La Niña.

Even the 2015 super niño autumn didn’t have it so well defined.

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Just now, Phil said:

Re: medium/long range guidance, that might be the most impressive STJ pattern I’ve ever seen during a La Niña.

Even the 2015 super niño autumn didn’t have it so well defined.

I'm not exactly sure what you mean? 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'm not exactly sure what you mean? 

The strength of the STJ across medium/LR guidance is off the charts for the pool of La Niña analogs.

E.g: Leading EPS cluster (which includes the control run). Southern jet running right into CA/SW US.

 

1DADB76A-D383-4DE1-AF00-AFF1BF5D3BE5.png

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

The strength of the STJ across medium/LR guidance is off the charts for the pool of La Niña analogs.

E.g: Leading EPS cluster (which includes the control run). Southern jet running right into CA/SW US.

EE6EA942-3F3E-414A-A510-F4EAC6B59954.png

Gotcha. Well they need it. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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We have a more narrow/retracted Hadley Cell structure now (a massive shift from early/mid summer) which is likely in part a consequence of -QBO influence on the ITCZ/tropopause height/static stability.

I’m willing to bet we’ll see more IO forcing this winter (p2-4) than canonical niña climo. La Niña winters with -QBO/more retracted HCs tend to have less WPAC forcing.

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

The strength of the STJ across medium/LR guidance is off the charts for the pool of La Niña analogs.

E.g: Leading EPS cluster (which includes the control run). Southern jet running right into CA/SW US.

 

1DADB76A-D383-4DE1-AF00-AFF1BF5D3BE5.png

That pattern usually ends up being surprisingly dry in my area and tends to produce some offshore flow with systems coming inland to the south.    The 15-day precip anomaly from the 00Z EPS illustrated this quite well with an area of drier than normal east of Seattle.   

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nw-qpf_anom_15day-5465600.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Of course now the 12Z ECMWF comes in totally different and much wetter.   

It’s heading in that same direction, though.

Almost all EPS solutions do likewise. But some are faster with the evolution, while others are slower.

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Might be one of the best opportunities for CA/SW US over the next several months.

Come mid-Nov we may enter a more split flow type regime without much precip for large portions of the west coast. Though to what extent that occurs (and for how long) is uncertain.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Might be one of the best opportunities for CA/SW US over the next several months.

Come mid-Nov we may enter a more split flow type regime without much precip for large portions of the west coast. Though to what extent that occurs (and for how long) is uncertain.

Well hopefully it doesn't happen in January as usual. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Well hopefully it doesn't happen in January as usual. 

Impossible to know, obviously, but I have an inkling January may be two faced.

Climo shakes up mid-month and tropical analogs begin to diverge suggesting an unstable equilibrium of sorts. 

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4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Bro haven’t u had a foot of snow each of the last 4 years😂😂😂

Well yeah because my location ROCKS! But I think it will not be confined to February and there will be multiple cold/snow events on top of a bigly AR and wind event or two that will occur more in the November/January timeframe and will be more widespread. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Another generally dry day here while its raining to the north and south... no rain here since around dawn.    I was expecting today to be much wetter out here with the development of this warm front that will slowly lift north through tomorrow and hopefully leading to a warm and dry Saturday.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Another generally dry day here while its raining to the north and south... no rain here since around dawn.    I was expecting today to be much wetter out here with the development of this warm front that will slowly lift north through tomorrow and hopefully leading to a warm and dry Saturday.  

Dark Dank and Damp up here right now. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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22 minutes ago, Phil said:

Impossible to know, obviously, but I have an inkling January may be two faced.

Climo shakes up mid-month and tropical analogs begin to diverge suggesting an unstable equilibrium of sorts. 

January 2018-21 has pretty much been a disaster here. We had a pretty decent snow event in January 2020 (When Mossman got buried.), but overall the past 4 Januaries have been very warm, probably the warmest cluster of Januaries on record for this area. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Another generally dry day here while its raining to the north and south... no rain here since around dawn.    I was expecting today to be much wetter out here with the development of this warm front that will slowly lift north through tomorrow and hopefully leading to a warm and dry Saturday.  

Surprising how much rain we have gotten today. 0.31", nothing special, but a lot more than we were expecting. Cool and drippy with a current temp of 47.5. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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36 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I have a tingly feeling that this will be the winter that we all have been waiting a long time for…

 

32 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Bro haven’t u had a foot of snow each of the last 4 years😂😂😂

You gotta remember, its all relative...."the winter that we all have been waiting a long time for" he will require a Cat D6 Dozer to clear his driveway....we're not talking piddly little John Deere lawn tractor with a blade attachment stuff here....

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