PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS, ECMWF - 10 Day Rainfall Totals

It's good to see the Op runs are in good agreement with each other, said no one ever. Wow. 12z GEFS(Seattle) is more in line with the wet Euro! Skiing by Pumpkin day? C'MON!!!!

[TT-SEA]

SEA is up to 56 with a SW wind... its a veritable heat wave!  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Amazing how far apart the GFS and the King are. GFS does get wet in the long range though. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA is up to 56 with a SW wind... its a veritable heat wave!  

The sub-60 streak is in jeopardy. I see EUG is forecast to hit 70 on Saturday.  

[TacomaWaWx]

47 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I have a tingly feeling that this will be the winter that we all have been waiting a long time for…

18-19 would be really hard to beat IMO. 3 strong windstorms and 2 weeks of cold and snow in February and a bit more in March. @1000'NorthBend was talking about that just the other day how active that winter was with big windstorms on 12/14, 12/20 and 1/6 then February 2019.

[MossMan]

14 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

 

You gotta remember, its all relative...."the winter that we all have been waiting a long time for" he will require a Cat D6 Dozer to clear his driveway....we're not talking piddly little John Deere lawn tractor with a blade attachment stuff here....

Exactly!! 

[TacomaWaWx]

59 here could hit 60 for the first time in nearly 2 weeks. Haven’t had any rain since early this morning 0.12” today and 1.10” for the month. 

[Timmy Supercell]

28 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

January 2018-21 has pretty much been a disaster here. We had a pretty decent snow event in January 2020 (When Mossman got buried.), but overall the past 4 Januaries have been very warm, probably the warmest cluster of Januaries on record for this area. 

That one made top 3 snowiest 7-day snowfalls 2010-2021 but who knew it would get bone dry the following 6 weeks? 

[RentonHill]

44 and sprinkles (rain) in cle elum

[TacomaWaWx]

The windstorms on December 20th and then January 6th were really impressive…the January 6th storm in particular was really strong. Then it snowed later that night here. The December 20th storm really nailed BC…but we had 60mph gusts even down here. 

[TT-SEA]

18 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

59 here could hit 60 for the first time in nearly 2 weeks. Haven’t had any rain since early this morning 0.12” today and 1.10” for the month. 

I see some sun at SEA now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

December 2018 and January 2019 were beyond lame here. The February snowfall was incredible, but I would take something like 2016-17 over 18-19 any day. 

[Phil]

46 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

January 2018-21 has pretty much been a disaster here. We had a pretty decent snow event in January 2020 (When Mossman got buried.), but overall the past 4 Januaries have been very warm, probably the warmest cluster of Januaries on record for this area. 

For what little it’s worth: 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18 minutes ago, Phil said:

For what little it’s worth: 

 

Just saw this on the other thread. Always appreciate people who make predictions. I've had a pretty decent run, I'll type something up hopefully by the end of the weekend. At this point an average/near average January would be something of a win down this way. A huge snow pack winter like 1998-99 would also be a monster win. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Well yeah because my location ROCKS! But I think it will not be confined to February and there will be multiple cold/snow events on top of a bigly AR and wind event or two that will occur more in the November/January timeframe and will be more widespread. 

I want an AR event that’s also a snow event. Another December 1996 type storm, in other words.

[ChrisEl Elyon]

My next few months prediction (Western OR/WA)

Nov Warm/Wet.

Dec Average/Average maybe a mid-late cold snap, storm.

Jan Mild/Somewhat wet esp Northern OR-Northbound.

Feb Chilly/Dry maybe some snow.

Mar Mild/Wet.

 

Remember this is an overall not 100% of all months, take with grain of salt.

 

Woolly Worm Forecast (Black at front and end but rufous in the middle) as seen this fall

Nov Active

Dec Calmer

Jan Calmer

Feb Active

Mar Active

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I want an AR event that’s also a snow event. Another December 1996 type storm, in other words.

That's what January 2012 was down here. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

CFS has been pretty consistent showing December and March to be cold regionally. January/February are below average for Washington, near average for most of Oregon with a N/S gradient. Overall above average precip. 

[MossMan]

12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That's what January 2012 was down here. 

We stayed as all snow up here during that event luckily. 

[Jbolin]

23 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I want an AR event that’s also a snow event. Another December 1996 type storm, in other words.

Hell no, that system and it's subsequent warmer brother wreaked havoc across the westside/s of OR/WA for days. 

I do not want to go through that again. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

21 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That's what January 2012 was down here. 

I was in Seattle. It was a very Portland-type snow event there: snow into ice (which is not so common in Seattle). A good storm, but 1996-epic it was not.

[SouthHillFrosty]

17 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

CFS has been pretty consistent showing December and March to be cold regionally. January/February are below average for Washington, near average for most of Oregon with a N/S gradient. Overall above average precip. 

I really think Seattle will see 10+ plus inches this year again. The pnw has seen great snow storms the last 4 years. No reason it wouldn’t continue for a 5th year in a La Niña year 

[Tyler Mode]

Cloudy with light rain/mist most of the day and only 0.22" to show for it.  52, after a low of 48.  This is true NW weather.

[ChrisEl Elyon]

55-62* across the South Sound, 61* at my Apartments in South Lacey.

[MossMan]

I don’t have very many or good pictures from back in the day, but this was the morning of  12/29/96 right after it had turned to rain. My first car was buried! Not as dramatic in the pic because compaction was already well under way by then. 

[Phil]

55 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just saw this on the other thread. Always appreciate people who make predictions. I've had a pretty decent run, I'll type something up hopefully by the end of the weekend. At this point an average/near average January would be something of a win down this way. A huge snow pack winter like 1998-99 would also be a monster win. 

Looking forward to your thoughts.

[TT-SEA]

SEA is up to 59 and partly sunny at 3 p.m. with SSW13.   

I assume 59 will be the high... that station loves high temps that end in '9' lately.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA is up to 59 and partly sunny at 3 p.m. with SSW13.   

I assume 59 will be the high... that station loves high temps that end in '9' lately.   

Currently 49.1, going to be a very close call for a sub-50 high again today. We've been very socked in today. Rain ended around 1:30, but it remains cloudy. 

[TacomaWaWx]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA is up to 59 and partly sunny at 3 p.m. with SSW13.   

I assume 59 will be the high... that station loves high temps that end in '9' lately.   

61/46 here today…but dropped down to 57 as some rain moved in. Pretty decent streak of sub 60 highs has come to an end. 

[TacomaWaWx]

52 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I really think Seattle will see 10+ plus inches this year again. The pnw has seen great snow storms the last 4 years. No reason it wouldn’t continue for a 5th year in a La Niña year 

Yeah despite the warming climate overall we’ve managed some pretty significant winter storms still the last few years. Historic levels in 2019 and 2021…and the super bowl snowstorm in 2017 was also a pretty nice one. Really the only bad winter recently was 19/20 and even that one did bring a little snow south of Seattle and lots north of it…that winter could’ve been worse. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Curious as to who on here has gone the longest without experiencing snow? Been since late Feb, 2019 for me.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS is trying to take a step towards the EURO, but can't quite get there.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Back to summer!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Back to summer!

Slightly above average...

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Slightly above average...

Not to mention that not only are Oct/Nov warm spells entirely expected, but they're usually a good sign for winter during -ENSO. Plus winter not blowing its load in October, all that stuff

[Cloud]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

I see some sun at SEA now.

This you waiting for the sun to come out at SEA Tim? 

On a more serious note, it's a lot less gloomy today for sure. 

[ShawniganLake]

27 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Curious as to who on here has gone the longest without experiencing snow? Been since late Feb, 2019 for me.

Was that when your area had a once in a generation snowstorm?  You’ve been paying it back the last few winters. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

8 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Was that when your area had a once in a generation snowstorm?  You’ve been paying it back the last few winters. 

Yes, it was a weird anafrontal setup. Not an Arctic airmass and actually was about 34-35F for most of the event. Definitely feels like we will be paying back that debt to mother nature for a great many years.

[SouthHillFrosty]

9 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Yes, it was a weird anafrontal setup. Not an Arctic airmass and actually was about 34-35F for most of the event. Definitely feels like we will be paying back that debt to mother nature for a great many years.

Didn’t u get like 30 inches in that snowstorm?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Didn’t u get like 30 inches in that snowstorm?

About 20” or so. Was an amazing event. What I would love to see is a legit Arctic airmass make it this far south and have some sub-freezing highs and snow would be a bonus.