Gradient Keeper Posted October 15, 2021 Report Share Posted October 15, 2021 40 minutes ago, Cloud said: I'm not buying the drier solutions from the GFS last few runs, especially when the ensembles seems to agree on a wetter pattern. And FWIW, the GFS operational is going back to the wetter solutions as well. 18Z is already a bit wetter at its current time frame in the mid-range compares to the previous runs. Clearly a lean towards the 12z Euro. Yep. 18z GFS took a step towards the wetter GEFS, EPS, EURO Op. C'MON!!!! 00z GFS in 4 hours 40 minutes 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 15, 2021 Report Share Posted October 15, 2021 Looking good! 3 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 15, 2021 Report Share Posted October 15, 2021 18z GFS would get us to average for the month, maybe more. We're around 2.4" now, average for October is 6.29". Getting into the wet season now. We average about 50" total November-March. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 15, 2021 Report Share Posted October 15, 2021 LOL!! omfg. over a foot of rain at Forks over the next 2 weeks. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted October 15, 2021 Report Share Posted October 15, 2021 4 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Since we are talking about sports in here. This Oregon team bores the hell out of me. Completely uninteresting. Their defense which was supposed to be good is absolutely terrible, they completely gave that game away against Stanford. I have no idea how they beat Ohio State. They have the talent to be a national title contender, but look like a total fraud. Oregon caught Ohio State early. Ohio state had a redshirt freshman for a quarterback who was hurt. A true freshman running back, true freshman cornerback, 2 true freshman dline players, a true freshman linebacker… that’s just the freshman. They are young young and Oregon played well and caught them early 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 15, 2021 Report Share Posted October 15, 2021 62/52 today no rain here. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted October 15, 2021 Report Share Posted October 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, Cloud said: LOL!! omfg. over a foot of rain at Forks over the next 2 weeks. I love this. Cali looks to get a good rain 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 15, 2021 Report Share Posted October 15, 2021 Nice looking model runs today. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 15, 2021 Report Share Posted October 15, 2021 How about snow? Yup... Cascades gets hammer. Over 100" for Rainier and N. Cascades. 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 15, 2021 Report Share Posted October 15, 2021 Some pepto for the Oregon Cascades. Nice base for Bachelor to build on. 3 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 15, 2021 Report Share Posted October 15, 2021 I know everyone likes to look at full runs... but the 18Z run after 240 hours obviously does not mean much of anything. Same is true for any run beyond day 10 actually... except maybe the EPS. This is the precip anomaly map from the 18Z GFS through day 10... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted October 15, 2021 Report Share Posted October 15, 2021 22 minutes ago, Cloud said: How about snow? Yup... Cascades gets hammer. Over 100" for Rainier and N. Cascades. Stevens could open on Halloween with this base 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 15, 2021 Report Share Posted October 15, 2021 SEA broke the sub-60 streak yesterday with a high of 60. Another 60 day today. Not much precip since the sun went up but today should also be 7 straight days of measurable precip. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: I know everyone like to look at full runs... but the 18Z run after 240 hours obviously does not mean much of anything. Same is true for any run beyond day 10 actually... except maybe the EPS. This is the precip anomalies from the 18Z GFS through day 10... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 11 minutes ago, Cloud said: Just pointing out that its actually a fairly dry run through day 10. That has not happened very often over the last month. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 With a daily temp range of 53/51, clouds and .51" of rain it's kind of hard to stay awake. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 5 hours ago, DJ Droppin said: Rod Hill has spoken! https://www.kgw.com/article/weather/rod-hill-winter-outlook-2021/283-dccdea0c-b84c-4889-b0b0-3f8522127cda Are Rod Hill and Rich Marriott related? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 33 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Just pointing out that its actually a fairly dry run through day 10. That has not happened very often over the last month. Outlier. Trending wetter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 9 minutes ago, Cloud said: Outlier. Trending wetter. 12Z EPS anomaly map through day 10 is almost identical... and was actually a little drier than its 00Z run. The 18Z GFS is an outlier through day 10... but then dead on after day 10? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z EPS anomaly map through day 10 is almost identical... and was actually a little drier than its 00Z run. The 18Z GFS is an outlier through day 10... but then dead on after day 10? Can we noT post outlier/anomaly maps yet and just post totals? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 Clouds. 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 1 minute ago, AbbyJr said: Here we go! Snow on the Pumpkins! if you leave them out until Veteran's Day. C'MON!!!! 00z ECMWF in 4 hours 23 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 I think someone had posted this a few days ago but I can’t find it…Have there been any back to back Nina’s that did not produce “The Goodies”? 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 5 minutes ago, MossMan said: I think someone had posted this a few days ago but I can’t find it…Have there been any back to back Nina’s that did not produce “The Goodies”? Not sure... but according to Rod Hill there is literally ZERO chance this winter will be wetter than normal. Seems a little too absolute for a prediction to me. But colder and drier than normal usually has some "goodies". 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 Rod did say there has been I believe 9 back-to-back Ninas since 1950 and 8 of the 2nd year Nina were drier than normal. Something like that. How many were snowier? Who knows. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Rod did say there has been I believe 9 back-to-back Ninas since 1950 and 8 of the 2nd year Nina were drier than normal. Something like that. How many were snowier? Who knows. 10-11 and 11-12 was a back to back nina that produced nothing from Nov-Feb. Some slop in March of 2012 that melted by the afternoon. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: 10-11 and 11-12 was a back to back nina that produced nothing from Nov-Feb. Some slop in March of 2012 that melted by the afternoon. You can make a historic event sound so dull. 2 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 18 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: You can make a historic event sound so dull. Sadly, I also missed out on that one. I was in Taft in Lincoln City which apparently did not experience a historic event. And it still wasn't impressive from Nov-Feb which is more important IMO. Most likely an aberration though. At some point the other shoe would drop, one would think anyway. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 6 hours ago, DJ Droppin said: Rod Hill has spoken! https://www.kgw.com/article/weather/rod-hill-winter-outlook-2021/283-dccdea0c-b84c-4889-b0b0-3f8522127cda I wouldn’t call back to back La Niñas “rare”. In fact most La Niñas come in pairs. 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 43 minutes ago, AbbyJr said: Too soon! Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 69/20 here, so close to a 50 departure. Come on rain! 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, Phil said: I wouldn’t call back to back La Niñas “rare”. In fact most La Niñas come in pairs. Happened twice in the last decade. This will be the third pair in the last 12 years. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 Who's ready for crazy 00z runs? ! 2 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 2 hours ago, TT-SEA said: I know everyone likes to look at full runs... but the 18Z run after 240 hours obviously does not mean much of anything. Same is true for any run beyond day 10 actually... except maybe the EPS. This is the precip anomaly map from the 18Z GFS through day 10... 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 30 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: 10-11 and 11-12 was a back to back nina that produced nothing from Nov-Feb. Some slop in March of 2012 that melted by the afternoon. Those were both back to back ski resort seasons at least. No shortage of snow where it counts most. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 Interestingly both 10-11 and 11-12 did feature a dry month in the mix just for kicks. If we get another splitty January I feel that before and after that will end up different. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blob Posted October 16, 2021 Author Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 Got to go into the truck yard for the first time today. 4 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 2010-11 and 2011-12 were great up here. I’d take a repeat of either. 5 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 16, 2021 Report Share Posted October 16, 2021 Radar would make you think it's pouring rain here... but just went outside and it's dry and mild and the moon is shining through some high clouds. 1 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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